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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Following the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces, Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market have experienced significant gains. The market is anticipating a potential oil price shock that could have far-reaching effects on the dollar's trajectory in 2026. After Maduro's arrest, the price of Bitcoin surged nearly 5% over the past three days, surpassing $90,000. The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by approximately $100 billion as traders bet on the economic consequences of U.S. intervention in Venezuela.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Trump Promises to Oversee Transition Post-Maduro Arrest, Hinting at Cryptocurrency Surprises</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to "manage the country" until a "prudent transition" is achieved. His media company has also foreshadowed a "cryptocurrency surprise," prompting analysts to prepare for a potential $17.3 trillion oil price shock that could impact Bitcoin and the crypto market.</p><p>After the U.S. military action in Venezuela, Trump announced plans to take control of the country’s vast oil reserves and encouraged American businesses to invest billions in the Venezuelan oil industry. Analysts believe this could lead to a sharp decline in oil prices, which would be beneficial for Bitcoin.</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>Expectations of Oil Price Collapse: Potentially Below $50, Easing Inflation Pressures</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Stock fund manager Grant Cardone told the media, "U.S. oil prices should open below $50 per barrel on Monday." Analysts noted that this could lead to a decrease in both U.S. and global inflation rates, thereby providing upward momentum for Bitcoin.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Far-Reaching Impacts: Dollar Stability Under Scrutiny, Favorable Cryptocurrency Environment</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The arrest of Maduro and the subsequent U.S. intervention could have profound implications for the global economy. The potential $17.3 trillion oil price shock is expected to shake dollar stability and create a favorable environment for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The market's response—Bitcoin prices breaking above $90,000 and a roughly $100 billion increase in the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization—highlights the potential impact of these geopolitical events on the crypto market. The situation is still evolving, and traders and analysts are closely monitoring the developments.</p>

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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在美国部队逮捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗后，比特币与加密货币市场出现显著上涨。市场正预期一场潜在的油价冲击，这可能对2026年的美元走势产生深远影响。马杜罗被捕后，比特币价格在过去三天内上涨近5%，突破每枚9万美元。整体加密市场市值增加约1000亿美元，交易员正针对美国干预委内瑞拉可能引发的经济后果进行押注。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>马杜罗被捕后 特朗普承诺接管过渡 预告加密惊喜</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>美国总统特朗普承诺将在「审慎过渡」实现前「管理该国」。他的媒体公司亦预告将有「加密货币惊喜」，促使分析师为一场可能冲击比特币与加密市场的17.3万亿美元油价冲击做准备。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动后，特朗普公布计划，将控制委内瑞拉庞大的石油储备，并鼓励美国企业对该国石油产业投资数十亿美元。分析师认为，这可能导致油价大幅下跌，从而对比特币有利。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>油价暴跌预期：或低于50美元 通胀压力缓解</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>股票基金经理 Grant Cardone 向媒体表示：「美国油价应在周一开盘时低于每桶50美元。」分析师指出，这可能导致美国及全球通胀率下降，从而为比特币提供上行动力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>深远影响：美元稳定性受考验 加密货币环境转趋有利</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>马杜罗被捕及随后的美国干预，可能对全球经济产生深远影响。估计规模达17.3万亿美元的潜在油价冲击，可能动摇美元稳定性，并为比特币及其他加密货币创造有利环境。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>市场的反应——比特币价格突破9万美元，整体加密市场增加约1000亿美元市值——凸显了这些地缘政治事件对加密市场的潜在影响。局势仍在持续演变，交易员与分析师正密切关注后续发展。</p>

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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在美國部隊逮捕委內瑞拉總統馬杜羅後，比特幣與加密貨幣市場出現顯著上漲。市場正預期一場潛在的油價衝擊，這可能對2026年的美元走勢產生深遠影響。馬杜羅被捕後，比特幣價格在過去三天內上漲近<strong>5%</strong>，突破<strong>每枚9萬美元</strong>。整體加密市場市值增加約<strong>1000億美元</strong>，交易員正針對美國干預委內瑞拉可能引發的經濟後果進行押注。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>馬杜羅被捕後 <strong>特朗普承諾接管過渡 預告加密驚喜</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>美國總統特朗普承諾將在「審慎過渡」實現前「管理該國」。他的媒體公司亦預告將有「加密貨幣驚喜」，促使分析師為一場可能衝擊比特幣與加密市場的<strong>17.3萬億美元油價衝擊</strong>做準備。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在美國對委內瑞拉採取軍事行動後，特朗普公佈計劃，將<strong>控制委內瑞拉龐大的石油儲備</strong>，並鼓勵美國企業對該國石油產業投資數十億美元。分析師認為，這可能導致油價大幅下跌，從而對比特幣有利。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>油價暴跌預期：或低於50美元 通脹壓力緩解</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>股票基金經理 Grant Cardone 向媒體表示：「美國油價應在週一開盤時低於每桶<strong>50美元</strong>。」分析師指出，這可能導致美國及全球通脹率下降，從而為比特幣提供上行動力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>深遠影響：美元穩定性受考驗 加密貨幣環境轉趨有利</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>馬杜羅被捕及隨後的美國干預，可能對全球經濟產生深遠影響。估計規模達<strong>17.3萬億美元</strong>的潛在油價衝擊，可能動搖美元穩定性，並為比特幣及其他加密貨幣創造有利環境。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>市場的反應——比特幣價格突破<strong>9萬美元</strong>，整體加密市場增加約<strong>1000億美元</strong>市值——凸顯了這些地緣政治事件對加密市場的潛在影響。局勢仍在持續演變，交易員與分析師正密切關注後續發展。</p>

Following Maduro's arrest, Trump foreshadowed a "crypto surprise." Analysis: This could become a new engine for a Bitcoin bull market

马杜罗被捕后特朗普预告将有「加密货币惊喜」 分析：或成比特币牛市新引擎

馬杜羅被捕後特朗普預告將有「加密貨幣驚喜」 分析：或成比特幣牛市新引擎

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</div></div><p>According to the latest report from on-chain data analysis firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has undergone a structural market shift in the second half of 2025, with the most significant change being a notable decoupling from the U.S. stock market, specifically the S&amp;P 500 index. This phenomenon is not a short-term fluctuation but reflects a fundamental change in capital inflow patterns and market structures.</p><h3><strong>Structural Decoupling of Bitcoin from U.S. Stocks: Moving from "Risk Assets" to an Independent Market</strong></h3><p>The report indicates that Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase characterized as "weak to neutral," but systemic risks are limited. While price activity may be subdued, underlying structural changes have significantly reduced downward pressure and have not triggered new speculative behavior. The introduction of a spot Bitcoin ETF is one of the main drivers of this decoupling, shifting market demand from past short-term speculative trading linked to the U.S. stock market to a "allocation-focused capital flow" independent of stock market trends.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-16-1024x576.png" alt=""></figure><h3><strong>Shift in Leverage Structure: Stablecoins Replace BTC as Primary Collateral</strong></h3><p>The leverage dynamics in the market have also undergone a critical shift:</p><ul><li>The derivatives market increasingly relies on stablecoins as collateral, leading to a decline in high-leverage positions priced in BTC.</li><li>This transition has reduced the risk of "cascading liquidations" and has interrupted the transmission of stock market volatility to the Bitcoin market.</li></ul><p>At the same time, macro liquidity is shifting towards commodities and precious metals, causing Bitcoin to be temporarily marginalized, leading to a weakened response to stock market sentiment.</p><p><strong>Structural Solidification of Holders: Long-Term Investors and ETF Custodians Dominate the Market</strong></p><p>The report further reveals that the nature of market participants is changing:</p><ul><li>Short-term trend traders who view Bitcoin as a "stock alternative" continue to exit the market.</li><li>Long-term holders and ETF-related custodians have become the main holders, reinforcing the stability of the supply side.</li><li>The price discovery mechanism has shifted to being "endogenously driven," increasingly relying on holding behavior and supply constraints rather than external macro signals.</li></ul><h3><strong>Key Indicator: Hidden Strengthening of Stablecoin Purchasing Power</strong></h3><p>Despite weak price performance, the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) has continued to decline during the same period, indicating that the potential purchasing power of stablecoins is accumulating. This suggests that capital remains within the cryptocurrency ecosystem rather than flowing significantly into the stock market. The baseline scenario set in the report is that the market will continue consolidating under "tepid demand," rather than "forced selling pressure," unless the market accumulates high leverage again or stablecoins begin large-scale deployment.</p><h3><strong>Conclusion: A New Price Logic Has Taken Shape</strong></h3><p>The report clearly concludes that the decoupling of Bitcoin from U.S. stocks is structural. The previously tight connection between the two has been significantly removed, and the price response pattern of Bitcoin during periods of macro uncertainty has been fundamentally reshaped.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

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</div></div><p>根据链上数据分析机构CryptoQuant的最新报告，比特币在2025年下半年出现了结构性的市场转变，其中最关键的变化是与比特币与美股标准普尔500指数（S&amp;P 500）显著脱钩。此现象并非短期波动，而是反映资金流入模式与市场结构的根本性改变。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>比特币与美股结构性脱钩：从「风险资产」走向独立市场</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>报告指出，比特币已进入「弱势至中性」的盘整阶段，但系统性风险有限。价格活动虽然平淡，底层结构的变化却大幅降低了下跌压力，且未引发新的投机行为。现货比特币ETF是促成脱钩的主因之一，它将市场需求从过去与美股连动的短期投机交易，转变为独立于股市趋势的「配置型资金流」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-16-1024x576.png" alt=""></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>杠杆结构转变：稳定币取代BTC成为主要保证金</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>市场的杠杆动力学亦发生关键转移：</p><p>衍生品市场日益依赖稳定币作为保证金，以BTC计价的高杠杆部位下降。<br>此转变减少了「连环清算」的风险，并阻断了美股波动向比特币市场的传导。</p><p>与此同时，宏观流动性正转向大宗商品与贵金属，使得比特币暂时被边缘化，对股市情绪的反应也随之减弱。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>持币者结构固化：长期投资者与ETF托管主导市场</strong></p><p>报告进一步发现，市场参与者性质正在改变：</p><p>将比特币视为「股票替代品」的短期趋势交易者持续离场。<br>长期持有者与ETF相关托管成为持币主力，强化了供应端的稳定性。<br>价格发现机制转为「内生驱动」，更多取决于持币行为与供应限制，而非外部宏观讯号。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>关键指标：稳定币购买力隐性增强</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>尽管价格表现疲弱，稳定币供应比率（SSR）&nbsp;在同期持续下降，显示稳定币的潜在购买力正在累积。这意味着资金仍留在加密货币体系内，并未大量流出至股市。报告设定的基本情境是：市场将由「需求平淡」主导持续盘整，而非「被迫卖压」，除非市场重新累积高杠杆或稳定币开始大规模部署，此情境才会失效。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>结论：新的价格逻辑已然成形</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>报告结论明确指出，比特币与美股的脱钩是结构性的。以往紧密连结两者的传导机制已被大幅移除，比特币在宏观不确定时期的价格反应模式，已彻底重塑。</p>

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</div></div><p>根據鏈上數據分析機構CryptoQuant的最新報告，比特幣在2025年下半年出現了結構性的市場轉變，其中最關鍵的變化是<strong>與比特幣與美股標準普爾500指數（S&amp;P 500）顯著脫鉤</strong>。此現象並非短期波動，而是反映資金流入模式與市場結構的根本性改變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>比特幣與美股<strong>結構性脫鉤：從「風險資產」走向獨立市場</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>報告指出，比特幣已進入「弱勢至中性」的盤整階段，但系統性風險有限。價格活動雖然平淡，底層結構的變化卻大幅降低了下跌壓力，且未引發新的投機行為。<a href="https://cftime.io/nov-becomes-a-month-of-massacre-for-bitcoin-etfs/"><strong>現貨比特幣ETF</strong></a>是促成脫鉤的主因之一，它將市場需求從過去與美股連動的短期投機交易，轉變為獨立於股市趨勢的「配置型資金流」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-16-1024x576.png" alt=""></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>槓桿結構轉變：穩定幣取代BTC成為主要保證金</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>市場的槓桿動力學亦發生關鍵轉移：</p><ul><li><strong>衍生品市場</strong>日益依賴<strong>穩定幣</strong>作為保證金，以BTC計價的高槓桿部位下降。</li><li>此轉變減少了「連環清算」的風險，並阻斷了美股波動向比特幣市場的傳導。</li></ul><p>與此同時，宏觀流動性正轉向大宗商品與貴金屬，使得比特幣暫時被邊緣化，對股市情緒的反應也隨之減弱。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>持幣者結構固化：長期投資者與ETF託管主導市場</strong></p><p>報告進一步發現，市場參與者性質正在改變：</p><ul><li>將比特幣視為「股票替代品」的短期趨勢交易者持續離場。</li><li><strong>長期持有者</strong>與<strong>ETF相關託管</strong>成為持幣主力，強化了供應端的穩定性。</li><li>價格發現機制轉為「內生驅動」，更多取決於持幣行為與供應限制，而非外部宏觀訊號。</li></ul><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>關鍵指標：穩定幣購買力隱性增強</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>儘管價格表現疲弱，<strong>穩定幣供應比率（SSR）</strong>&nbsp;在同期持續下降，顯示<strong>穩定幣的潛在購買力正在累積</strong>。這意味著資金仍留在加密貨幣體系內，並未大量流出至股市。報告設定的基本情境是：市場將由「需求平淡」主導持續盤整，而非「被迫賣壓」，除非市場重新累積高槓桿或穩定幣開始大規模部署，此情境才會失效。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>結論：新的價格邏輯已然成形</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>報告結論明確指出，比特幣與美股的脫鉤是<strong>結構性</strong>的。以往緊密連結兩者的傳導機制已被大幅移除，比特幣在宏觀不確定時期的價格反應模式，已徹底重塑。</p>

Report: Bitcoin "severes ties" with US stocks

報告：比特幣报告：比特币与美股「切断连结」 价格逻辑彻底重塑與美股「切斷連結」 價格邏輯徹底重塑

報告：比特幣與美股「切斷連結」 價格邏輯徹底重塑

报告：比特币与美股「切断连结」 价格逻辑彻底重塑

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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>As Bitcoin's price has dropped 30% from an all-time high of about $126,200 in October, the market faces a crucial question: Is the Bitcoin plunge in 2025 the end of a bull market, or a normal correction within the cycle?</p><h3><strong>Key Points on the Bitcoin Collapse in 2025:</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-5-1024x660.png" alt=""></figure><p><strong>Reasons for the 2022 Collapse:</strong> In May 2022, when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.5%, Bitcoin was priced at approximately $37,700. Subsequently, the collapse of the TerraUSD stablecoin and its sister coin, Luna, led to losses exceeding $40 billion in the market, shocking the entire industry. By May 12, Bitcoin had fallen to $28,900, while Ethereum dropped from $2,779 to around $1,700. A series of subsequent collapses occurred, including Celsius freezing withdrawals, Three Arrows Capital's bankruptcy, and FTX declaring bankruptcy in November. By this time, Bitcoin's price had plummeted to $15,742, and Ethereum to $880, with the total value of the crypto market losing over $1 trillion. From peak to trough, Bitcoin's decline approached 59%. This sell-off was exacerbated by deleveraging, debt defaults, and high leverage, giving rise to what many termed the "crypto winter."</p><p><strong>Reasons for the 2025 Collapse:</strong> In contrast, the price correction in 2025 primarily stemmed from external macroeconomic factors. On October 10, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on imports from China, prompting an immediate market reaction; in 24 hours, the crypto market lost nearly $400 billion, setting a record for the largest single-day loss. After reaching $126,200 on October 6, Bitcoin fell to about $110,000 by the end of the month and further declined to around $85,000 by late November. By mid-December, Bitcoin's price stabilized between $88,000 and $89,700. November's decline of 25% marked the worst month for Bitcoin since 2022. However, unlike in 2022, there were no significant collapses of major crypto projects during this period, stablecoins did not lose their peg, and major exchanges did not fail. The damages were primarily due to macroeconomic uncertainty rather than internal weaknesses, which is a key distinction between the two collapses.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Price Trends: Comparing 2022 and 2025</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>To compare these two cycles, we standardized the data at their triggering points (May 3, 2022, and October 10, 2025).</p><ul><li><strong>First Month:</strong> The price drop in both cycles was similar.</li><li><strong>Second Month:</strong> Clear divergence in price trends emerged.</li><li><strong>Third Month:</strong> The situation in 2025 indicated early stability, while 2022 remained unstable.</li></ul><p>This gap shows that the correction in 2025 was less severe and had not yet entered a full-blown sell-off phase.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-7-1024x660.png" alt=""></figure><h3><strong>Exchange Liquidity Indicators</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Exchange liquidity accurately reflects market sentiment. When the number of Bitcoins flowing into exchanges increases, it usually indicates that investors are preparing to sell; conversely, if outflows increase, it suggests potential accumulation or reduced intent to sell. In 2022, following the Terra/Luna collapse, there was a significant net inflow in May and June of about 150,000 Bitcoins. During this time, the spot trading volume on centralized exchanges fell from $1.94 trillion in May to $1.41 trillion in June and further to $1.39 trillion in July, indicating a drop in trading participation amidst a deepening bear market.</p><p>In 2025, the situation appeared more stable. November's total inflow reached about 580,000 Bitcoins, but net flows showed a negative balance, indicating that the outflow of Bitcoins from exchanges exceeded inflows, typically signaling potential stable accumulation. The reserves on exchanges dropped to 2.76 million Bitcoins, suggesting long-term holders and institutions are moving assets off exchanges.</p><h3><strong>If 2025 Recovers Like 2022, How Long Will It Take?</strong></h3><p>Bitcoin's full recovery after the 2022 collapse took 16 to 20 months, with more than a year to rebound from the bottom. If the 2025 cycle follows a similar timeline, recovery may take 12 to 18 months. Bitcoin could test the 0.62 standard level around $77,500 again before turning. However, the current market structure appears more solid, and liquidity is deeper, without a specific crypto crisis; yet multiple external factors could still influence the recovery speed.</p><h3><strong>Outlook for 2026</strong></h3><p>The outlook for 2026 remains highly uncertain. While some analysts believe there is room for rate cuts next year, recent Federal Reserve forecasts suggest there may be only one rate reduction. Policymaker opinions are increasingly divided. Any loosening of policies or liquidity support could help risk assets, although recent dynamics show that Bitcoin's response is not always a linear increase. With ETF demand stabilizing, some forecasts (including those from JPMorgan) still describe scenarios where Bitcoin reaches higher levels.</p><p>At the same time, persistent inflationary pressures, strong U.S. economic data, and geopolitical tensions may delay policy shifts or maintain tight conditions. If ETF inflows decrease or institutions become more cautious, Bitcoin's price may remain flat for some time rather than generate a new upward trend.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

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</div></div><p>随着比特币价格自10月的历史高点约126,200美元下跌30%，市场再次面临一个重要问题：比特币2025年暴跌是牛市的结束，还是周期中的正常修正？</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>比特币2025年暴跌主要观点：</h3><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-5-1024x660.png" alt=""></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>2022年的崩盘原因：2022年5月，当美国联邦储备局加息0.5%时，比特币当时报价约37,700美元。其后，TerraUSD稳定币及其姊妹币Luna的崩溃导致市场损失超过400亿美元，令整个行业受到震撼。到5月12日，比特币跌至28,900美元，而以太坊从2,779美元降至约1,700美元。 随后，一系列崩溃事件接踵而至，包括Celsius冻结提款、Three Arrows Capital破产，以及FTX在11月宣告倒闭。到此时，比特币的价位已跌至15,742美元，以太坊跌至880美元，整体加密市场的价值损失更是超过1万亿美元。从高点至低点，比特币的跌幅接近59%。此次抛售因去铰化、债务违约及高杠杆作用而加剧，形成了许多人所称的「加密寒冬」。<br>2025年的崩盘原因：相比之下，2025年的价格回调却主要源自于外部宏观经济因素。于2025年10月10日，美国总统特朗普宣布对中国进口征收100%关税，这一消息令市场迅速作出反应，24小时内加密市场损失近4000亿美元，创下最大单日损失的记录。 比特币在10月6日达到126,200美元后，于月底跌至约110,000美元，而到11月底则进一步下滑至约85,000美元。至12月中旬，比特币的价格在88,000至89,700美元之间稳定。 11月的跌幅为25%，是比特币自2022年以来最糟糕的一个月。然而，与2022年相比，这次没有任何重大加密项目崩溃，稳定币也未脱钩，主要交易所未出现失败，这一切的损害均来自于宏观经济的不确定性，而非内部的弱点，这是两次崩盘的关键区别。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>价格走势：2022年与2025年对比</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>为比较这两个周期，我们在其触发点（2022年5月3日及2025年10月10日）对数据进行了标准化。</p><p>第1个月：两个周期的价格下跌速度相似。<br>第2个月：价格走势出现明显分化。<br>第3个月：2025年的情况显示出早期的稳定，而2022年仍旧不稳定。</p><p>这一差距显示，2025年的回调幅度较轻，尚未进入全面抛售阶段。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-7-1024x660.png" alt=""></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>交易所流动性指标</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>交易所流动性能准确反映市场情绪。当比特币流入交易所的数量增加时，通常表示投资者准备出售；反之，若流出数量增加，则代表可能在积累或减少出售的意愿。 2022年，因Terra/Luna崩盘，5月与6月出现了大量净流入，约为150,000个比特币。与此同时，集中交易所的现货交易量由5月的1.94万亿美元降至6月的1.41兆美元，并在7月降至1.39兆美元，显示在熊市加深的背景下，参与交易的人数减少。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在2025年，情况则显得更为稳定。 11月的总流入量高达约580,000个比特币，但净流动却显示为负值，表明流出交易所的比特币数量超过流入，这通常预示着潜在的稳定积累。交易所的储备量降至276万个比特币，这表明长期持有者和机构正在将资产从交易场地中移出。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>如果2025年像2022年一样，恢复需要多久？</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>比特币在2022年的崩盘后完全恢复需要16至20个月，而从底部回升则超过一年。假如2025年的周期依然遵循这一时间表，恢复可能需要12至18个月。比特币可能会再次测试约77,500美元的0.62标准水平，然后再转向。然而，当前市场结构更加坚固，流动性也更深厚，并无出现专属的加密危机，但多个外部因素仍可能影响市场的恢复速度。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>展望2026年</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>对于2026年的展望依然存在高度不确定性。虽然一些分析师仍然认为明年有降低利率的空间，但近期的美联储预测最多只会有一次减息，政策制定者的意见分歧加剧。任何放松政策或流动性支持均可能对风险资产有所帮助，尽管近期动态显示，比特币的反应并非总是呈线性上升。随着ETF需求稳定，一些预测（包括摩根大通的看法）仍然描述了比特币达到更高水平的可能情境。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>同时，持续的通胀压力、强劲的美国经济数据以及地缘政治紧张局势可能会延迟政策的转变，或保持条件的紧张程度。如果ETF流入减少或机构变得更加谨慎，比特币的价格可能会在未来一段时间内持平，而非创造一轮新的涨势。</p>

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</div></div><p>隨著<a href="https://cftime.io/even-the-feds-quantitative-easing/">比特幣價格</a>自10月的歷史高點約126,200美元下跌30%，市場再次面臨一個重要問題：比特幣2025年暴跌是牛市的結束，還是周期中的正常修正？</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>比特幣2025年暴跌<strong>主要觀點：</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-5-1024x660.png" alt=""></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><ol><li><strong>2022年的崩盤原因</strong>：2022年5月，當美國聯邦儲備局加息0.5%時，比特幣當時報價約37,700美元。其後，TerraUSD穩定幣及其姊妹幣Luna的崩潰導致市場損失超過400億美元，令整個行業受到震撼。到5月12日，比特幣跌至28,900美元，而以太坊從2,779美元降至約1,700美元。 隨後，一系列崩潰事件接踵而至，包括Celsius凍結提款、Three Arrows Capital破產，以及FTX在11月宣告倒閉。到此時，比特幣的價位已跌至15,742美元，以太坊跌至880美元，整體加密市場的價值損失更是超過1萬億美元。從高點至低點，比特幣的跌幅接近59%。此次拋售因去鉸化、債務違約及高槓桿作用而加劇，形成了許多人所稱的「加密寒冬」。</li><li><strong>2025年的崩盤原因</strong>：相比之下，2025年的價格回調卻主要源自於外部宏觀經濟因素。於2025年10月10日，美國總統特朗普宣布對中國進口徵收100%關稅，這一消息令市場迅速作出反應，24小時內加密市場損失近4000億美元，創下最大單日損失的記錄。 比特幣在10月6日達到126,200美元後，於月底跌至約110,000美元，而到11月底則進一步下滑至約85,000美元。至12月中旬，比特幣的價格在88,000至89,700美元之間穩定。11月的跌幅為25%，是比特幣自2022年以來最糟糕的一個月。然而，與2022年相比，這次沒有任何重大加密項目崩潰，穩定幣也未脫鉤，主要交易所未出現失敗，這一切的損害均來自於宏觀經濟的不確定性，而非內部的弱點，這是兩次崩盤的關鍵區別。</li></ol><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>價格走勢：2022年與2025年對比</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>為比較這兩個周期，我們在其觸發點（2022年5月3日及2025年10月10日）對數據進行了標準化。</p><ul><li><strong>第1個月</strong>：兩個周期的價格下跌速度相似。</li><li><strong>第2個月</strong>：價格走勢出現明顯分化。</li><li><strong>第3個月</strong>：2025年的情況顯示出早期的穩定，而2022年仍舊不穩定。</li></ul><p>這一差距顯示，2025年的回調幅度較輕，尚未進入全面拋售階段。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-7-1024x660.png" alt=""></figure><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>交易所流動性指標</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>交易所流動性能準確反映市場情緒。當比特幣流入交易所的數量增加時，通常表示投資者準備出售；反之，若流出數量增加，則代表可能在積累或減少出售的意願。2022年，因Terra/Luna崩盤，5月與6月出現了大量淨流入，約為150,000個比特幣。與此同時，集中交易所的現貨交易量由5月的1.94萬億美元降至6月的1.41兆美元，並在7月降至1.39兆美元，顯示在熊市加深的背景下，參與交易的人數減少。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在2025年，情況則顯得更為穩定。11月的總流入量高達約580,000個比特幣，但淨流動卻顯示為負值，表明流出交易所的比特幣數量超過流入，這通常預示著潛在的穩定積累。交易所的儲備量降至276萬個比特幣，這表明長期持有者和機構正在將資產從交易場地中移出。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>如果2025年像2022年一樣，恢復需要多久？</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>比特幣在2022年的崩盤後完全恢復需要16至20個月，而從底部回升則超過一年。假如2025年的周期依然遵循這一時間表，恢復可能需要12至18個月。比特幣可能會再次測試約77,500美元的0.62標準水平，然後再轉向。然而，當前市場結構更加堅固，流動性也更深厚，並無出現專屬的加密危機，但多個外部因素仍可能影響市場的恢復速度。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>展望2026年</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>對於2026年的展望依然存在高度不確定性。<a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026">雖然一些分析師仍然認為明年有降低利率的空間</a>，但近期的美聯儲預測最多只會有一次減息，政策制定者的意見分歧加劇。任何放鬆政策或流動性支持均可能對風險資產有所幫助，儘管近期動態顯示，比特幣的反應並非總是呈線性上升。隨著ETF需求穩定，一些預測（包括摩根大通的看法）仍然描述了比特幣達到更高水平的可能情境。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>同時，持續的通脹壓力、強勁的美國經濟數據以及地緣政治緊張局勢可能會延遲政策的轉變，或保持條件的緊張程度。如果ETF流入減少或機構變得更加謹慎，比特幣的價格可能會在未來一段時間內持平，而非創造一輪新的漲勢。</p>

In-depth comparative analysis: Bitcoin's 2025 crash vs. 2022 collapse

深度对比图解：比特币2025年暴跌 vs 2022年崩盘

深度對比圖解：比特幣2025年暴跌 vs 2022年崩盤

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</div></div><p>Japan's interest rate hike is poised to put Bitcoin in a vulnerable position, as investors prepare for the end of three decades of ultra-low funding costs.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Forecasts suggest that the Bank of Japan will raise the benchmark interest rate to 0.75% at its policy meeting in December, marking the highest level since 1995. This anticipated policy shift has already led to an appreciation of the yen, adjusting from above 155 yen per dollar last week to about 154.56 yen.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Impact of Japan's Rate Hike on Volatile Markets</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Experts involved in policy discussions indicate that policymakers are inclined to raise rates by 25 basis points at the meeting on December 19, provided no significant shocks occur in global or domestic markets. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the board would reaffirm previous expressions of rate increases and make appropriate decisions. Market data shows that the likelihood of a hike in December is nearing 90%. Furthermore, support from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government for tightening measures indicates broader political backing for this policy.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The rising cost of capital will directly impact yen carry trades. This strategy allows hedge funds and proprietary trading desks to borrow funds cheaply in yen and invest in more volatile assets.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Bitcoin is one of the markets most affected by changes in leverage and liquidity. As borrowing costs rise, Bitcoin's price is also impacted. The strengthening yen aligns with a macro risk-reduction strategy, which could limit the liquidity environment that supports Bitcoin's recovery from monthly lows.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Recently, Bitcoin's price dipped to around $86,000, then rebounded in sync with the U.S. stock market to above $90,000, with its price volatility reflecting shifts in macro assets.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Japan's Tax System and Investment Rules Adjustment</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>This policy shift coincides with Japan's plan to restructure its cryptocurrency tax system. The new tax regime will impose a flat tax rate of 20% on trading gains starting in 2026, aligning with the rates for stocks and investment trusts, treating cryptocurrencies equally with other financial instruments.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>According to the proposal, cryptocurrency gains will become an independent tax category between national and local governments. Currently, income from digital assets is taxed under a progressive tax system, with rates potentially exceeding 55%.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Critics argue that this tax structure will not promote sales, as it imposes a significant tax burden on investors. However, reform advocates expect this unified lower tax rate to encourage greater participation in Japan's internal cryptocurrency market, which had approximately 8 million active accounts in September, with a spot trading volume of about 1.5 trillion yen (around $9.6 billion).</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Japanese asset management firms are also making adjustments. Nomura Asset Management has established an internal working group to assess product strategies, while Daiwa Asset Management is collaborating with Global X Japan to explore potential new products.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management and Amova Asset Management are renegotiating their custody, pricing, and standard agreements to support increased exposure of retail and institutional investors to digital assets.</p>

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</div></div><p>日本加息政策即将影响全球风险市场，日本加息核弹使比特币处于疲弱的境地，投资者正在为历经三十年的超低资金成本结束做准备。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>据预测，在12月的政策会议上，日本银行将基准利率提高至0.75%，这将是自1995年以来的最高水平。这一政策变化的前景已经使日圆的价值上升，从上周以上155日圆每美元的水平，调整至约154.56日圆。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>日本加息核弹对高波动市场的影响</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根据参与政策讨论的专家，若全球或日本国内市场未出现重大冲击，政策制定者倾向于在12月19日的会议上加息25个基点。日本央行总裁植田和男表示，董事会将重申以往的加息表达，并作出合适的决策。市场数据显示，12月加息的可能性已接近90%。此外，与首相高市早苗的政府部门对紧缩议程的支持，显示这一政策将获得更广泛的政治支持。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>资金成本的上升将直接影响日圆套利交易。该策略使对冲基金及专用交易台能够以低廉的日圆借入资金，并投入到更加波动的资产中。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>比特币是受制于杠杆及流动性变化最为明显的市场之一，因此投资者在面对借贷成本上升时，比特币的价格也受到影响。日圆的增强与宏观投资组合的降低风险策略相一致，这可能限制支持比特币从月内低点复苏的流动性环境。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>日前比特币的价格曾下跌至约86,000美元，然后与美国股市同步回升至约 9万美元以上水平，其价格波动反映了宏观资产的轮动变化。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>日本调整税制与投资规则</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此政策变化恰逢日本计划重构其加密货币税制，新的税制将于2026年起对交易收益征收20%的平税，税率将与股票及投资信托相同，加密货币也将与其他金融工具一视同仁。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根据提案，加密货币收益将成为国家与地方政府之间的独立税档。目前，数字资产的收入则需要按照累进税制征税，税率可能会超过55%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>批评者认为，该税制不会促进销售，因其会使投资者面临巨额税务负担。然而，改革倡导者预期，这一统一的减税比例将激励更多参与日本内部的加密市场，该市场在9月份的活跃账户达约800万，现货交易量约为1.5兆日圆（约96亿美元）。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>日本的资产管理公司也随之调整，野村资产管理已成立内部工作小组以评估产品策略，大和资产管理则与 Global X Japan 合作，探索潜在的新产品。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>三菱UFJ资产管理和 Amova 资产管理正在重新协商其保管、定价及标准协议，以支持增加零售及机构投资者对数字资产的曝光。</p>

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</div></div><p>日本加息政策即將影響全球風險市場，日本加息核彈使比特幣處於疲弱的境地，投資者正在為歷經三十年的超低資金成本結束做準備。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>據預測，在12月的政策會議上，日本銀行將基準利率提高至0.75%，這將是自1995年以來的最高水平。這一政策變化的前景已經使日圓的價值上升，從上週以上155日圓每美元的水平，調整至約154.56日圓。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>日本加息核彈對高波動市場的影響</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根據參與政策討論的專家，若全球或日本國內市場未出現重大衝擊，政策制定者傾向於在12月19日的會議上加息25個基點。日本央行總裁植田和男表示，董事會將重申以往的加息表達，並作出合適的決策。市場數據顯示，12月加息的可能性已接近90%。此外，與首相高市早苗的政府部門對緊縮議程的支持，顯示這一政策將獲得更廣泛的政治支持。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>資金成本的上升將直接影響日圓套利交易。該策略使對沖基金及專用交易台能夠以低廉的日圓借入資金，並投入到更加波動的資產中。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>比特幣是受制於槓桿及流動性變化最為明顯的市場之一，因此投資者在面對借貸成本上升時，比特幣的價格也受到影響。日圓的增強與宏觀投資組合的降低風險策略相一致，這可能限制支持比特幣從月內低點復甦的流動性環境。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>日前比特幣的價格曾下跌至約86,000美元，然後與美國股市同步回升至約 9萬美元以上水平，其價格波動反映了宏觀資產的輪動變化。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>日本調整稅制與投資規則</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此政策變化恰逢日本計劃重構其加密貨幣稅制，新的稅制將於2026年起對交易收益徵收20%的平稅，稅率將與股票及投資信託相同，加密貨幣也將與其他金融工具一視同仁。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根據提案，加密貨幣收益將成為國家與地方政府之間的獨立稅檔。目前，數字資產的收入則需要按照累進稅制徵稅，稅率可能會超過55%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>批評者認為，該稅制不會促進銷售，因其會使投資者面臨巨額稅務負擔。然而，改革倡導者預期，這一統一的減稅比例將激勵更多參與日本內部的加密市場，該市場在9月份的活躍賬戶達約800萬，現貨交易量約為1.5兆日圓（約96億美元）。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>日本的資產管理公司也隨之調整，野村資產管理已成立內部工作小組以評估產品策略，大和資產管理則與 Global X Japan 合作，探索潛在的新產品。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>三菱UFJ資產管理和 Amova 資產管理正在重新協商其保管、定價及標準協議，以支持增加零售及機構投資者對數字資產的曝光。</p>

Japan's interest rate hike and nuclear test countdown are imminent!

日本加息核弹倒数！日圆套利交易退潮 恐抽干比特币流动性

日本加息核彈倒數！日圓套利交易退潮 恐抽乾比特幣流動性

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</div></div><p>Strategy is actively enhancing its capital reserves. The latest report shows that the company has created a cash reserve of $1.44 billion and expanded its Bitcoin holdings to 650,000 BTC, following a recent purchase of 130 Bitcoins. However, despite the company's progress in increasing reserves and dividends, investors remain skeptical about the sustainability of its capital chain model.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Bitcoin Holdings Reach 650,000; Cash Reserves Successfully Increased</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Strategy announced that it recently purchased 130 Bitcoins for approximately $11.7 million, with an average cost of $89,960 per Bitcoin, raising its total Bitcoin investment to $48.38 billion, at an average transaction price of $74,436 per Bitcoin. The company stated that this cash reserve will support its preferred stock dividend payments and debt interest.</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>Strategy's Dangerous "Capital Cycle"</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Strategy raised funds by selling Class A common shares through its market offering plan to establish this reserve. The company’s management stated that the current plan is to ensure sufficient cash to meet payment obligations for at least 12 months, with the goal, depending on market conditions and liquidity needs, potentially increasing the buffer amount to 24 months or more.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>According to company data, the current cash reserves complement its Bitcoin reserves, which make up approximately 3.1% of the ultimate supply of 21 million BTC. Management emphasized that this structure is designed to allow the company to flexibly meet fixed payment demands without selling Bitcoins, while viewing Bitcoin as a long-term treasury asset. Strategy stated that the size and conditions of the reserves will be adjusted based on changes in market capital costs, Bitcoin prices, and capital market environments.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Critics: STRC Dividend Raised to 10.75%</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Michael Saylor posted on social media platform X that the dividend yield for Strategy’s STRC preferred stock has reached 10.75% after "another rate hike last night." This adjustment results from the recent restructuring of the company's capital.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Subsequently, long-time Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff condemned this, questioning Strategy’s business model. He believes this signals that the "end has already begun" for Strategy, pointing out that Saylor’s sale of shares was not to buy more Bitcoins, but to raise dollars to meet his interest and dividend payment requirements. He described the stock as "collapsed" and accused the business model of being a scam, claiming that Saylor misled investors.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>In a follow-up post, Peter Schiff indicated that Strategy is now raising funds by selling shares and using those funds to purchase U.S. Treasuries, which yield about 4%, while needing to pay interest rates between 8% and 10% on its own debts and preferred stock. He questioned whether investors can see this as a viable strategy or merely as leveraging to speculate on Bitcoin.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Strategy's Stock Price Discount Greater than Its Bitcoin Holdings</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Since October 6, Strategy has fallen by over half. The company's current holdings of 650,000 BTC are worth about $55 billion, while its stock trading price is below the nominal value of its Bitcoin reserves by about $10 billion.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>After deducting the reported $8.2 billion in debt, the company's net Bitcoin holdings amount to about $46.8 billion. This figure still exceeds the company’s market value of approximately $1.8 billion, and does not account for any cash on its balance sheet. The Kobeissi Letter noted that this gap illustrates how significantly investors have reassessed the stock, questioning whether Executive Chairman Michael Saylor can continue to increase the company’s Bitcoin holdings under the current circumstances.</p>

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</div></div><p>Strategy危险「资金循环」。 Strategy正在积极提升其资金储备，最新报告显示该公司已创建14.4亿美元的现金储备，并将其比特币持有量扩大至65万BTC，这是在新购130枚比特币之后实现的。然而，尽管公司在提高储备和分红方面有所进展，投资者对其Strategy资金链模式的可持续性仍表示质疑。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>比特币持有量达65万 现金储备成功增加</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Strategy 宣布，最近以约1170万美元的价格购买了130枚比特币，平均成本为每枚89,960美元，这使其总比特币投资上升至483.8亿美元，平均成交价为每枚74,436美元。该公司指出，这笔美元储备将会支持其优先股票的股息支付及债务利息。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Strategy危险「资金循环」</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Strategy 透过其市场发售计划，出售了A类普通股份以筹集资金，用于建立这笔储备。该公司管理层表示，目前的计划是确保保持足够的现金，以应对至少12个月的支付义务，并视市场条件及流动性需求，目标可能将缓冲金额提高至24个月或更高。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根据公司资料，目前的美元储备与其比特币储备相辅相成，该比特币储备约占最终2100万BTC供应量的3.1%。管理层强调，这一结构旨在使公司在不出售比特币的情况下，能灵活应对固定支付的需求，同时将比特币视为长期的财库资产。 Strategy 表示，储备的大小及条件将根据市场上资金成本、比特币价格及资本市场环境的变化而调整。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>批评 STRC 股息提升至10.75%</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Michael Saylor 在社交平台X上发文称，Strategy 的 STRC 优先股股息率在「昨晚再度加息」后，已达到10.75%。此一上调是该公司资本结构最近调整的结果。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>随后，长期比特币批评者 Peter Schiff 对此表示了谴责，并质疑 Strategy 的商业模式。他认为这标志着 Strategy 的「结局已然开始」，并指出 Saylor 出售股票并非为了购买更多的比特币，而是为了筹措美元以满足其利息及分红的支付要求。他形容该股票已「崩溃」，并指责其商业模式如同诈骗，称 Saylor 误导了投资者。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在后续发文中， P​​eter Schiff 还表示，Strategy 现在通过出售股票来筹集资金，并用这些资金购买美国国债，收益率约为4%，而在其自身债务及优先股票上则需支付8%至10%之间的利息。他质疑投资者能否将这视为可行的策略，还是仅仅是使用杠杆来投机比特币。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Strategy 股价折让大于其比特币持有量</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>自10月6日以来，Strategy 累计下跌逾半。该公司目前持有的65万BTC价值约550亿美元，而其股票交易价已低于其比特币储备的名义价值约100亿美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在扣除 Strategy 报告的82亿美元债务后，该公司的净比特币持仓约为468亿美元。这一数字仍高于公司的市值约18亿美元，且未考虑其资产负债表上的任何现金。 《Kobeissi Letter》指出，这一差距显示出投资者如何大幅重新评估该股票，并质疑执行主席 Michael Saylor 在当前情况下是否能继续增加公司的比特币持有量。</p>

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</div></div><p>Strategy危險「資金循環」。Strategy正在積極提升其資金儲備，最新報告顯示該公司已創建14.4億美元的現金儲備，並將其比特幣持有量擴大至65萬BTC，這是在新購130枚比特幣之後實現的。然而，儘管公司在提高儲備和分紅方面有所進展，投資者對其Strategy資金鍊模式的可持續性仍表示質疑。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>比特幣持有量達65萬 現金儲備成功增加</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Strategy 宣布，最近以約1170萬美元的價格購買了130枚比特幣，平均成本為每枚89,960美元，這使其總比特幣投資上升至483.8億美元，平均成交價為每枚74,436美元。該公司指出，這筆美元儲備將會支持其優先股票的股息支付及債務利息。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Strategy危險「資金循環」</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Strategy 透過其市場發售計劃，出售了A類普通股份以籌集資金，用於建立這筆儲備。該公司管理層表示，目前的計劃是確保保持足夠的現金，以應對至少12個月的支付義務，並視市場條件及流動性需求，目標可能將緩衝金額提高至24個月或更高。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根據公司資料，目前的美元儲備與其比特幣儲備相輔相成，該比特幣儲備約占最終2100萬BTC供應量的3.1%。管理層強調，這一結構旨在使公司在不出售比特幣的情況下，能靈活應對固定支付的需求，同時將比特幣視為長期的財庫資產。Strategy 表示，儲備的大小及條件將根據市場上資金成本、比特幣價格及資本市場環境的變化而調整。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>批評 STRC 股息提升至10.75%</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a href="https://x.com/saylor/status/1995479071518577116">Michael Saylor 在社交平台X上發文稱</a>，Strategy 的 STRC 優先股股息率在「昨晚再度加息」後，已達到10.75%。此一上調是該公司資本結構最近調整的結果。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>隨後，長期比特幣批評者 Peter Schiff 對此表示了譴責，並質疑 Strategy 的商業模式。他認為這標誌著 Strategy 的「結局已然開始」，並指出 Saylor 出售股票並非為了購買更多的比特幣，而是為了籌措美元以滿足其利息及分紅的支付要求。他形容該股票已「崩潰」，並指責其商業模式如同詐騙，稱 Saylor 誤導了投資者。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在後續發文中， Peter Schiff 還表示，Strategy 現在通過出售股票來籌集資金，並用這些資金購買美國國債，收益率約為4%，而在其自身債務及優先股票上則需支付8%至10%之間的利息。他質疑投資者能否將這視為可行的策略，還是僅僅是使用槓桿來投機比特幣。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Strategy 股價折讓大於其比特幣持有量</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>自10月6日以來，Strategy 累計下跌逾半。<a href="https://cftime.io/strategys-market-capitalization-lower-its-btc/">該公司目前持有的65萬BTC價值約550億美元</a>，而其股票交易價已低於其比特幣儲備的名義價值約100億美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在扣除 Strategy 報告的82億美元債務後，該公司的淨比特幣持倉約為468億美元。這一數字仍高於公司的市值約18億美元，且未考慮其資產負債表上的任何現金。《Kobeissi Letter》指出，這一差距顯示出投資者如何大幅重新評估該股票，並質疑執行主席 Michael Saylor 在當前情況下是否能繼續增加公司的比特幣持有量。</p>

Dissecting Strategy's dangerous "capital cycle"

左手卖股筹14亿 右手买比特币！拆解Strategy危险「资金循环」

左手賣股籌14億 右手買比特幣！拆解Strategy危險「資金循環」

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</div></div><p>A key collaboration, led by industry leaders and official agencies, has officially launched. Recently, Forms Syntron Limited (Hong Kong) signed a memorandum of cooperation with Cyberport, announcing the establishment of a co-creation center focused on "blockchainization"—the "Blockchain Town @ Cyberport."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The project signals an ambition to invest up to HKD 100 million over the next three years, aiming to nurture five potential unicorn companies and over 200 local talents. Behind this important milestone is one of the key drivers, Chen Yao-Wen, Chief Digital Officer of Forms Syntron and Director of the FINNOSpace Innovation Center. In this exclusive interview, he deeply analyzes the strategic significance, operational model, and far-reaching impact of "Blockchain Town" on Hong Kong's future.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Forms Syntron's Strategic Leap: From Technology Provider to Ecological Initiator</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Regarding Forms Syntron's transition from software developer to initiator of the "Blockchain Town" ecosystem project, Chen views this as a strategic necessity in line with the trends. He explains that as blockchain applications move from the laboratory into actual business scenarios, Hong Kong’s ability to become a "global digital asset hub" hinges on the establishment of a robust and thriving on-chain financial ecosystem.</p><p>"We adhere to the mission of Invest in HK for HK, hoping to contribute to this on-chain financial ecosystem," emphasizes Chen. "Beyond providing technology, we aim to accelerate Hong Kong's ecosystem building through funding, technology, and accumulated compliant Web3 practical experience, assisting blockchain technology firms, RWA digital asset companies, and relevant industry stakeholders."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Chen notes that Forms Syntron's unique market positioning and extensive technical practice experience position it well to connect traditional finance (TradFi) or Web2 finance with compliant Web3 on-chain finance, thereby assisting Hong Kong in realizing the synergy between Web2 and Web3 for scalable industry development.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-1024x682.jpeg" alt=""><figcaption><strong>Chen pointed out that the core mission of the "Blockchain Town @ Cyberport" project is to "invest in Hong Kong, build Hong Kong."</strong></figcaption></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Business Model: Agile Investment Aimed at "Growing the Pie"</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Facing an investment plan of HKD 100 million, Chen reveals that the strategy is "agile" to respond to the rapid changes in the digital asset market. He clearly states that the core mission of the "Blockchain Town @ Cyberport" plan is to "invest in Hong Kong, build Hong Kong."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>"As for practical commercial considerations, we hope to accelerate the development of digital finance, thereby increasing stakeholder demand for blockchain advisory services and technology, essentially growing the pie and expanding our business opportunities." He admits that this is more akin to a strategic investment to establish industry positioning.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>So, how is success measured? Chen presents three non-financial indicators:</p><ol><li>Contributing to Hong Kong's acceleration in becoming a global digital asset hub.</li><li>Cultivating technology and business talents that support the development of digital assets in Hong Kong.</li><li>Nurturing "Made in HK" successful blockchain or digital asset enterprises.</li><li>&nbsp;</li></ol><h3>Nurturing Unicorns: Five Pillars to Empower "Blockchainisation"</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>To nurture five potential unicorns within three years, the selection criteria are crucial. Chen states that the primary consideration is whether the startup has sufficient potential to "aid Hong Kong’s development into a global digital asset hub." While he does not explicitly say “look for higher lines” for projects in key areas of on-chain finance like RWA, he emphasizes the inherent alignment of this domain with Hong Kong's positioning as an international financial center.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>In addition to funding, Forms Syntron will accelerate startup growth through its unique five dimensions of "Blockchainisation":</p><p>&nbsp;</p><ol><li><strong>Scientific Research Outcomes:</strong> Sharing cutting-edge technology research.</li><li><strong>Compliance Web3 Technology Platform FINNOSafe:</strong> Providing plug-and-play compliant technology infrastructure.</li><li><strong>Tokenization Solutions:</strong> Mature products and practical experience.</li><li><strong>Rich Project Implementation Experience:</strong> Avoiding detours for startups.</li><li><strong>Funding and Market Matching:</strong> Assisting in customer and ecosystem expansion.</li></ol><p>These five pillars form a comprehensive support system from technology and compliance to commercialization.</p><h3>Talent Strategy: Local Focus with International Embrace</h3><p>Regarding the goal of cultivating 200 local talents, Chen clearly states that the core is to build a local talent pool to support sustainable industry development, but the company remains open to talent from outside Hong Kong.</p><p>"Hong Kong's long-standing advantage is our ability to embrace and attract international talent, making it a melting pot for talent," he asserts. The best approach to retaining talent is not solely through corporate benefits but by turning Hong Kong into an open, inclusive, and thriving market, allowing talent to see long-term development incentives.</p><h3>Dual Engine Drive: The Future of Web3 and GenAI Integration</h3><p>Using the company's published "Banking Landscape 2030" white paper as a blueprint, Chen elaborates on how the two engines of "regulated Web3" and "generative AI" can collaborate. He envisions that future banking services must be 7x24, unrestricted by geography, faster, smarter, and lower-cost, relying on the interplay of these two disruptive technologies.</p><p>"We can expect that by 2030, the Alpha generation will start entering the workforce… their requirements for banking and financial services will include Web3 x GenAI." To this end, Forms Syntron has developed the compliant Web3 platform FINNOSafe and the bank-exclusive intelligent FINNOSmart platform, empowering financial institutions to embrace the future.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-1-1024x769.jpeg" alt=""><figcaption>Chen (right in the picture) stated that the best way to retain talent is not solely through corporate benefits, but by transforming Hong Kong into an open, inclusive market with a flourishing industry, allowing talent to see long-term development incentives.</figcaption></figure><h3>The Keys to Success and Future Moat</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Reflecting on the past eight years, Chen attributes Forms Syntron's success in Hong Kong to three key elements:</p><ol><li>A commitment to supporting Hong Kong's development and investment in tech talent.</li><li>Leveraging the dual advantages of Hong Kong and the Greater Bay Area to form a scalable fintech production line.</li><li>Integrating Eastern and Western technology systems while possessing a deep understanding of the operation of the financial industry and international regulations.</li><li>&nbsp;</li></ol><p>In the face of increasingly fierce competition ahead, he believes that the path of integrating industry expertise, scaling talent supply, and deep regulatory practice is the company's strongest moat.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>RWA Breakthrough Path and FINNOSafe's Compliance Advantages</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Discussing the breakthrough path for RWA, Chen observes that successful tokenized assets, such as green bonds and money market funds, share common features of standardization, regulation, and pricing transparency. He reveals that the FINNOSafe platform has already assisted multiple financial institutions in achieving mBridge, eHKD, tokenized deposits, and money market fund projects, successfully completing real-time PvP and DvP settlements on-chain, laying a solid foundation for the industry.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>With the enactment of the "Stablecoin Regulation," competition for compliant Web3 solutions has intensified. Chen points out that FINNOSafe's core competitiveness lies in "compliance": "We utilize Web3 technology to incorporate necessary compliance functions required by regulatory and financial institutions, enhancing cybersecurity, and ensuring seamless integration with banking systems, allowing Web2 and Web3 technology systems to interconnect."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>AI Transformation: Empowering Employees, Not Replacing Them</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Regarding the recent global phenomenon of "AI layoffs" and "boomerang employees," Chen’s perspective is clear and resolute: "AI does not replace humans; it only replaces employees who are unwilling to use AI."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>He acknowledges that technological transformation will lead to shifts in job types, but the key is whether businesses and employees can turn challenges into opportunities for upgrading. "The purpose of our developed FINNOSmart intelligent agent is to make it easier for bank employees to effectively use AI technology, significantly improving productivity, thereby giving companies more room to grow. In this positive development trajectory, more job opportunities will be created."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Forward Outlook: Pragmatic Response to the AI Boom, Firm Investment in the Future</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Finally, addressing the "AI bubble theory" in capital markets, Chen demonstrates a pragmatic approach as a technology practitioner. He believes that the operational models of Wall Street and the substantial development of the tech industry diverge, and as a fintech company, the core concern is whether technology can create substantial value for financial institutions.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>"One thing is certain: the development of AI is just beginning… there is still plenty of room for growth." He concludes that Forms Syntron's FINNOSmart solution adheres to the principles of "financial industry professionalism, large language model independence, and the flexible combinability of intelligent agents," aimed at assisting banks in better navigating the uncertainties of technological development, steadily progressing toward a new era of intelligent finance by 2030.</p>

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</div></div><p>在香港积极拥抱Web3.0与数字资产的浪潮中，一场由业界领军者与官方机构的关键合作正式启动。早前四方精创资讯（香港）与数码港携手签署合作备忘录，宣布成立以「区块链化」为核心的共创中心——「区块链小镇@数码港」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>项目宣示了未来三年投资高达港币一亿元的雄心，目标直指培育5间潜在独角兽企业与超过200名本地专才。在这个重要里程碑背后，关键推手之一正是四方精创首席数码总监兼FINNOSpace创新中心总监陈耀文。本次专访中，他为我们深入剖析了「​​区块链小镇」的战略深意、运作模式与对香港未来的深远影响。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>四方精创解构战略跃升：从技术供应商到生态发起方</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>对于四方精创从软体开发商转为发起「区块链小镇」生态项目，陈耀文视此为一次顺应时势的战略必然。他解释，当区块链应用已从实验室走入真实业务场景，香港要成为「全球数字资产枢纽」，关键在于建立一个健全及蓬勃的链上金融生态。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「我们秉承&nbsp;Invest in HK for HK 的使命，希望为这个链上金融生态作出贡献。」陈耀文强调，「除了提供技术之外，我们更希望透过资金、科技，以及累积的合规Web3实践经验，协助区块链技术公司、RWA数字资产公司及相关业界持份者，加速协助香港建立好这个生态。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>陈耀文指出，四方精创的特殊市场定位与深厚技术实践经验，能更好地把传统金融（TradFi）或Web2金融，与合规的Web3链上金融连接起来，从而协助香港发挥&nbsp;Web2 x Web3的协同效益，规模化发展相关产业。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-1024x682.jpeg" alt=""><figcaption><strong>陈耀文指，「区块链小镇@数码港」计划最核心的是「投资香港，建设香港」的使命感。</strong></figcaption></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>商业模式：机动投资，旨在「做大个饼」</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>面对高达一亿元的投资规划，陈耀文透露其策略是「机动灵巧」，以应对数字资产市场的急速变化。他明确表示，「区块链小镇@数码港」计划最核心的是「投资香港，建设香港」的使命感。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「至于切身的商业考虑，是期望透过加速数字金融的发展，从而令到各个链上金融行业的持份者，对区块链顾问服务与技术的需求提升，正所谓做大个饼，从而增加我们业务拓展的机会。」他坦言，这更像是一项奠定行业地位的战略性投资。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>那么，如何衡量成功？陈耀文给出了三个非财务指标：</p><ul><li>是否有助于香港加速成为全球数字资产枢纽。</li><li>是否能够培养出支持香港数字资产发展的科技与业务人才。</li><li>是否能够孕育出&nbsp;"Made in HK"&nbsp;的区块链或数字资产成功企业。</li></ul><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>培育独角兽：五大支柱，赋能「Blockchainisation」</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>要在三年内培育出五间潜在独角兽，筛选标准至关重要。陈耀文表示，首要考虑是初创公司是否有足够潜力「助力香港发展成为全球数字资产枢纽」。对于RWA等链上金融关键领域的项目，他虽未明言「看高一线」，但强调了该领域与香港国际金融中心定位的天然契合。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>除了资金，四方精创将透过其独特的&nbsp;"Blockchainisation"五大维度来加速初创成长：</p><ul><li>科研成果：共享前沿技术研究。</li><li>合规Web3技术平台FINNOSafe：提供即插即用的合规技术基础设施。</li><li>通证化解决方案：成熟的产品与实践经验。</li><li>丰富的项目实施经验：避免初创走弯路。</li><li>资金及市场对接：协助拓展客户与生态。</li><li>这五大支柱构成了一个从技术、合规到商业化的全方位支持体系。</li><li>&nbsp;</li></ul><h3>人才策略：立足本地，拥抱国际</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>针对培育200名本地专才的目标，陈耀文明确表示，核心是打造本地人才库以支持产业可持续发展，但对于人才来自香港以外的地方，公司保持开放态度。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「香港一直以来的优势，就是我们拥抱及吸引国际人才，把香港成为一个人才汇聚的国际性都市。」他认为，留住人才的最佳方法，并非单靠企业福利，而是把香港打造成一个开放、包容、产业蓬勃发展的市场，让人才看到长远发展的诱因。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>双引擎驱动：Web3与GenAI的融合未来</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>陈耀文以公司发布的《Banking Landscape 2030》白皮书为蓝图，阐述了「受监管Web3」与「生成式AI」这两大引擎如何协同。他预见，未来的银行服务必须是7x24、无地域限制、更快速智能且低成本，这有赖于两大颠覆性科技的交织。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「我们可以预期，到2030年，Alpha世代将会开始进入职场……他们对银行与金融服务，Web3 x GenAI将会是基本要求。」为此，四方精创打造了合规Web3平台FINNOSafe与银行专属的智能化FINNOSmart平台，赋能金融机构迎接未来。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-1-1024x769.jpeg" alt=""><figcaption>陈耀文（图右）指﹛留住人才的最佳方法，并非单靠企业福利，而是把香港打造成一个开放、包容、产业蓬勃发展的市场，让人才看到长远发展的诱因。</figcaption></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><p>成功密码与未来护城河</p><p>回顾过去八年，陈耀文将四方精创在香港的成功归因于三大关键：</p><ul><li>支持香港发展的使命感与对科技人才的投资。</li><li>发挥香港与大湾区的双互优势，形成具规模的金融科技生产线。</li><li>融会贯通东西方科技体系，并对金融行业运作与国际监管有深度把握。</li><li>&nbsp;</li></ul><p>面对未来更激烈的竞争，他相信，这条融合行业专业知识、规模化人才供应与深度合规实践的道路，正是公司最坚固的护城河。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>RWA突破路径与FINNOSafe的合规优势</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>谈及RWA的突破路径，陈耀文观察到，目前成功代币化的资产，如绿色债券、货币市场基金，都具有标准化、规范化、定价透明化的共通点。他透露，FINNOSafe平台已协助多间金融机构实现mBridge、eHKD、通证化存款及货币市场基金项目，并成功在链上完成PvP与DvP的实时交收，为行业奠下稳固基础。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在《稳定币条例》生效后，合规Web3解决方案的竞争加剧。陈耀文点出FINNOSafe的核心竞争力在于「合规化」：「我们利用Web3的技术，加入监管机构及金融机构必须要的合规功能，加强网络安全，并做好与银行系统的无缝连接，令Web2与Web3的技术体系能够互联互通。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>AI转型：赋能员工，而非取代</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>对于近期全球的「AI裁员潮」与「回力镖员工」现象，陈耀文的观点清晰而坚定：「AI并不取代人类，只会取代不愿意运用AI的员工。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>他承认技术转型会导致工种更迭，但关键在于企业与员工能否将挑战变为升级的机会。 「我们所研发的FINNOSmart智能体，目的是让银行员工更容易有效地利用AI技术，大大提高生产能力，从而协助企业有更大的发挥空间。在这种正循环的发展势头下，会创造更多的就业机会。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>前瞻展望：务实应对AI热潮，坚定投资未来</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>最后，对于资本市场的「AI泡沫论」，陈耀文展现出技术实践者的务实。他认为华尔街的运作模式与科技行业的实质发展存在差异，而作为金融科技公司，核心关切是科技能否为金融机构创造实质价值。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「可以肯定的是AI的发展现在才是刚刚起步……还有很大发展空间。」他总结道，四方精创的FINNOSmart解决方案秉持「金融行业专业属性、大语言模型独立性、智能体可灵活组合性」的原则，正是为了协助银行更好地面对科技发展的不确定性，稳步迈向2030年的智能金融新时代。</p>

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</div></div><p>在香港積極擁抱Web3.0與數字資產的浪潮中，一場由業界領軍者與官方機構的關鍵合作正式啟動。早前四方精創資訊（香港）與<a href="https://cftime.io/web3-pilot-scheme/">數碼港</a>攜手簽署合作備忘錄，宣佈成立以「<a href="https://cftime.io/ant-international-joins-forces-with-ubs/">區塊鏈</a>化」為核心的共創中心——「<strong>區塊鏈小鎮@數碼港</strong>」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>項目宣示了未來三年投資高達港幣一億元的雄心，目標直指培育5間潛在<a href="https://cftime.io/hashkey-becomes-a-unicorn/">獨角獸企業</a>與超過200名本地專才。在這個重要里程碑背後，關鍵推手之一正是四方精創首席數碼總監兼FINNOSpace創新中心總監陳耀文。本次專訪中，他為我們深入剖析了「區塊鏈小鎮」的戰略深意、運作模式與對香港未來的深遠影響。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>四方精創解構<strong>戰略躍升：從技術供應商到生態發起方</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>對於四方精創從軟體開發商轉為發起「區塊鏈小鎮」生態項目，陳耀文視此為一次順應時勢的戰略必然。他解釋，當區塊鏈應用已從實驗室走入真實業務場景，香港要成為「全球數字資產樞紐」，關鍵在於建立一個健全及蓬勃的鏈上金融生態。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「我們秉承&nbsp;<strong>Invest in HK for HK</strong> 的使命，希望為這個鏈上金融生態作出貢獻。」陳耀文強調，「除了提供技術之外，我們更希望透過資金、科技，以及累積的合規Web3實踐經驗，協助區塊鏈技術公司、RWA數字資產公司及相關業界持份者，加速協助香港建立好這個生態。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>陳耀文指出，四方精創的特殊市場定位與深厚技術實踐經驗，能更好地把傳統金融（TradFi）或Web2金融，與合規的Web3鏈上金融連接起來，從而協助香港發揮&nbsp;<strong>Web2 x Web3的協同效益</strong>，規模化發展相關產業。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-1024x682.jpeg" alt=""><figcaption><strong>陳耀文指，「區塊鏈小鎮@數碼港」計劃最核心的是「投資香港，建設香港」的使命感。</strong></figcaption></figure><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>商業模式：機動投資，旨在「做大個餅」</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>面對高達一億元的投資規劃，陳耀文透露其策略是「機動靈巧」，以應對數字資產市場的急速變化。他明確表示，「區塊鏈小鎮@數碼港」計劃最核心的是「投資香港，建設香港」的使命感。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「至於切身的商業考慮，是期望透過加速數字金融的發展，從而令到各個鏈上金融行業的持份者，對區塊鏈顧問服務與技術的需求提升，正所謂<strong>做大個餅</strong>，從而增加我們業務拓展的機會。」他坦言，這更像是一項奠定行業地位的戰略性投資。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>那麼，如何衡量成功？陳耀文給出了三個非財務指標：</p><ol><li>是否有助於香港加速成為全球數字資產樞紐。</li><li>是否能夠培養出支持香港數字資產發展的科技與業務人才。</li><li>是否能夠孕育出&nbsp;<strong>"Made in HK"</strong>&nbsp;的區塊鏈或數字資產成功企業。</li></ol><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>培育獨角獸：五大支柱，賦能「Blockchainisation」</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>要在三年內培育出五間潛在獨角獸，篩選標準至關重要。陳耀文表示，首要考慮是初創公司是否有足夠潛力「助力香港發展成為全球數字資產樞紐」。對於RWA等鏈上金融關鍵領域的項目，他雖未明言「看高一線」，但強調了該領域與香港國際金融中心定位的天然契合。</p><p>除了資金，四方精創將透過其獨特的&nbsp;<strong>"Blockchainisation"五大維度</strong>來加速初創成長：</p><ul><li><strong>科研成果</strong>：共享前沿技術研究。</li><li><strong>合規Web3技術平台FINNOSafe</strong>：提供即插即用的合規技術基礎設施。</li><li><strong>通證化解決方案</strong>：成熟的產品與實踐經驗。</li><li><strong>豐富的項目實施經驗</strong>：避免初創走彎路。</li><li><strong>資金及市場對接</strong>：協助拓展客戶與生態。</li></ul><p>這五大支柱構成了一個從技術、合規到商業化的全方位支持體系。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>人才策略：立足本地，擁抱國際</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>針對培育200名本地專才的目標，陳耀文明確表示，核心是打造<strong>本地人才庫</strong>以支持產業可持續發展，但對於人才來自香港以外的地方，公司保持開放態度。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「香港一直以來的優勢，就是我們擁抱及吸引國際人才，把香港成為一個人才匯聚的國際性都市。」他認為，留住人才的最佳方法，並非單靠企業福利，而是把香港打造成一個<strong>開放、包容、產業蓬勃發展的市場</strong>，讓人才看到長遠發展的誘因。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>雙引擎驅動：Web3與GenAI的融合未來</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>陳耀文以公司發布的《Banking Landscape 2030》白皮書為藍圖，闡述了「受監管Web3」與「生成式AI」這兩大引擎如何協同。他預見，未來的銀行服務必須是7x24、無地域限制、更快速智能且低成本，這有賴於兩大顛覆性科技的交織。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「我們可以預期，到2030年，Alpha世代將會開始進入職場……他們對銀行與金融服務，<strong>Web3 x GenAI將會是基本要求</strong>。」為此，四方精創打造了合規Web3平台FINNOSafe與銀行專屬的智能化FINNOSmart平台，賦能金融機構迎接未來。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-1-1024x769.jpeg" alt=""><figcaption><strong>陳耀文（圖右）指﹛留住人才的最佳方法，並非單靠企業福利，而是把香港打造成一個開放、包容、產業蓬勃發展的市場，讓人才看到長遠發展的誘因。</strong></figcaption></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>成功密碼與未來護城河</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>回顧過去八年，陳耀文將四方精創在香港的成功歸因於三大關鍵：</p><ol><li><strong>支持香港發展的使命感</strong>與對科技人才的投資。</li><li><strong>發揮香港與大灣區的雙互優勢</strong>，形成具規模的金融科技生產線。</li><li><strong>融會貫通東西方科技體系</strong>，並對金融行業運作與國際監管有深度把握。</li></ol><p>面對未來更激烈的競爭，他相信，這條融合行業專業知識、規模化人才供應與深度合規實踐的道路，正是公司最堅固的護城河。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>RWA突破路徑與FINNOSafe的合規優勢</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>談及RWA的突破路徑，陳耀文觀察到，目前成功代幣化的資產，如綠色債券、貨幣市場基金，都具有<strong>標準化、規範化、定價透明化</strong>的共通點。他透露，FINNOSafe平台已協助多間金融機構實現mBridge、eHKD、通證化存款及貨幣市場基金項目，並成功在鏈上完成PvP與DvP的實時交收，為行業奠下穩固基礎。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在《穩定幣條例》生效後，合規Web3解決方案的競爭加劇。陳耀文點出FINNOSafe的核心競爭力在於「<strong>合規化</strong>」：「我們利用Web3的技術，加入監管機構及金融機構必須要的合規功能，加強網絡安全，並做好與銀行系統的無縫連接，令Web2與Web3的技術體系能夠互聯互通。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>AI轉型：賦能員工，而非取代</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>對於近期全球的「AI裁員潮」與「回力鏢員工」現象，陳耀文的觀點清晰而堅定：「<strong>AI並不取代人類，只會取代不願意運用AI的員工。</strong>」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>他承認技術轉型會導致工種更迭，但關鍵在於企業與員工能否將挑戰變為升級的機會。「我們所研發的FINNOSmart智能體，目的是讓銀行員工更容易有效地利用AI技術，大大提高生產能力，從而協助企業有更大的發揮空間。在這種正循環的發展勢頭下，會創造更多的就業機會。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>前瞻展望：務實應對AI熱潮，堅定投資未來</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>最後，對於資本市場的「AI泡沫論」，陳耀文展現出技術實踐者的務實。他認為華爾街的運作模式與科技行業的實質發展存在差異，而作為金融科技公司，核心關切是科技能否為金融機構創造<strong>實質價值</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「可以肯定的是AI的發展現在才是剛剛起步……還有很大發展空間。」他總結道，四方精創的FINNOSmart解決方案秉持「金融行業專業屬性、大語言模型獨立性、智能體可靈活組合性」的原則，正是為了協助銀行更好地面對科技發展的不確定性，穩步邁向2030年的智能金融新時代。</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

formssi deconstructs the concept of investing hundreds of millions of yuan in the Cyberport Blockchain Town

四方精创解构 亿元投资数码港区块链小镇「AI不取代人类，只取代不愿运用AI的员工」

四方精創解構 億元投資數碼港區塊鏈小鎮「AI不取代人類，只取代不願運用AI的員工」

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</div></div><p>The Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, Christopher Hui, announced plans to expand tax exemptions for digital assets and other categories in 2026. The proposed tax exemption for digital assets in Hong Kong aims to attract more capital and enhance interest in cryptocurrency investments.</p><p>Secretary Hui outlined efforts to improve Hong Kong's tax policies, stating that this plan will build on existing tax exemptions for family offices and funds, extending further to private credit, carbon credits, and digital assets. The proposed tax legislation is expected to be submitted to the Legislative Council for discussion in 2026.</p><p>The expansion of tax exemptions to include digital assets is anticipated to capture significant interest from institutional investors and increase the inflow of capital into Hong Kong's capital markets. This change is based on the exemption policies established in 2023. Hui stated, "By incorporating digital assets into our tax exemption framework, we aim to activate capital flows and attract institutional interest in the cryptocurrency market."</p><p>Market reactions suggest an increase in cryptocurrency activities within the region. Although an immediate response from global leaders has not yet been seen, Hong Kong's policies have historically been closely linked to trading volumes and investor interest.</p><p>The tax exemption for digital assets is expected to positively impact the cryptocurrency market by increasing activity.</p><p>Research indicates that Hong Kong's tax exemptions in 2023 previously facilitated capital formation and private investments, boosting local capital in the digital asset market. Adjustments to Hong Kong's tax policies may accelerate investment in digital assets, aligning with historical market trends that show continuous participation in the cryptocurrency sector.</p>

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</div></div><p>财经事务及库务局局长许正宇宣布，计划在2026年扩大对数字资产及其他类别的税务豁免，香港数字资产免税，旨在吸引更多资本及提升对加密货币的投资兴趣。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>许局长概述了提升香港税务政策的努力，这项计划是在现有对家庭办公室及基金的税务豁免基础上推进，将进一步扩展到包括私募信贷、碳信用及数字资产等领域。所提议的税务法案预计将于2026年提交至立法会进行讨论。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>扩展至数字资产的税务豁免预计将吸引机构投资者的强烈关注，并提升资本流入香港资本市场的机会，这一变化基于2023年已经建立的豁免政策。许正宇表示：「通过将数字资产纳入我们的税务豁免框架，我们希望激活资本流动，并吸引机构对加密货币市场的兴趣。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>市场反应显示，区域内的加密货币活动有望增加。虽然目前尚未看到全球领导人的即时回应，但香港的政策历来与交易量及投资者的兴趣有着密切的关联。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>数字资产免税对加密货币市场的影响：预期活动增加</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根据研究，香港在2023年的税务豁免曾促进资金形成和私募投资，推动了本地资本在数字资产市场的增加。香港的税务政策调整可能会加速数字资产的投资，这符合历史市场趋势的模式，显示香港在加密货币领域的持续参与。</p>

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</div></div><p>財經事務及庫務局局長<a href="https://cftime.io/from-the-jpex-fraud-case/">許正宇</a>宣布，計劃在2026年擴大對數字資產及其他類別的稅務豁免，香港數字資產免稅，旨在吸引更多資本及提升對加密貨幣的投資興趣。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>許局長概述了提升香港稅務政策的努力，這項計劃是在現有對家庭辦公室及基金的稅務豁免基礎上推進，將進一步擴展到包括私募信貸、碳信用及數字資產等領域。所提議的稅務法案預計將於2026年提交至立法會進行討論。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>擴展至數字資產的稅務豁免預計將吸引機構投資者的強烈關注，並提升資本流入香港資本市場的機會，這一變化基於2023年已經建立的豁免政策。許正宇表示：「通過將數字資產納入我們的稅務豁免框架，我們希望激活資本流動，並吸引機構對加密貨幣市場的興趣。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>市場反應顯示，區域內的加密貨幣活動有望增加。雖然目前尚未看到全球領導人的即時回應，但香港的政策歷來與交易量及投資者的興趣有著密切的關聯。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>數字資產免稅對加密貨幣市場的影響：預期活動增加</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根據研究，香港在2023年的稅務豁免曾促進資金形成和私募投資，推動了本地資本在數字資產市場的增加。香港的稅務政策調整可能會加速數字資產的投資，這符合歷史市場趨勢的模式，顯示香港在加密貨幣領域的持續參與。</p>

Hong Kong's digital asset tax-free era has arrived!

香港数字资产免税时代来临！许正宇宣布：私募信贷、碳权、加密货币全面豁免

香港數字資產免稅時代來臨！許正宇宣布：私募信貸、碳權、加密貨幣全面豁免

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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Microsoft has recently established a simulated economy in which hundreds of AI act as buyers and sellers, observing their failures in handling basic tasks. These results should raise concerns for anyone betting on automated AI shopping assistants.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Join the CFTime TG discussion group! Stay updated on the latest trends in the cryptocurrency market and AI news, plus get free Web 3 entry tickets!</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>According to research from Microsoft in collaboration with Arizona State University, 100 client AI agents competed against 300 business agents in scenarios like ordering food. While the results were largely as expected, the study indicates that the potential for autonomous agent commerce has not yet reached maturity.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>When faced with 100 search results (which were too complicated for the agents), the primary AI models could not respond effectively, significantly lowering their "welfare scores" (a measure of the model's usefulness). These agents failed to perform comprehensive comparisons and chose the first "good enough" option they encountered, resulting in a phenomenon known as "first proposal bias," which made response times 10-30 times faster than the actual quality.</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>AI Shopping Assistants Vulnerable to Malicious Manipulation</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Worse yet, Microsoft found that AI shopping agents are also susceptible to malicious manipulation. Microsoft tested six manipulation strategies, from fake credentials and social proof to aggressive prompt injection attacks. OpenAI's GPT-4o and its open-source model GPTOSS-20b were extremely vulnerable to these manipulations, with all payments successfully redirected to malicious agents. In contrast, Alibaba's Qwen3-4b was easily influenced by basic persuasion techniques, while only Claude Sonnet 4 was able to resist such manipulations.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>When Microsoft asked the agents to work towards a common goal, some agents could not clarify their roles or coordinate effectively. Although performance improved under clear, step-by-step human guidance, this contradicted the purpose of autonomous agents.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Consequently, Microsoft suggests that the current effectiveness of AI agents in shopping is suboptimal. They stated, "Agents should assist, not replace human decision-making." The study recommends adopting a supervised autonomy model, allowing agents to handle tasks while humans retain control and review suggestions before final decisions.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>These findings come at a time when companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are racing to launch autonomous shopping assistants. OpenAI's Operator and Anthropic's Claude agents promise to navigate websites and complete purchases without supervision, but Microsoft's research indicates that this promise is premature.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Amazon Requests Halt to Comet Browser Usage on Its Platform</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Meanwhile, irresponsible behavior from AI agents has triggered tensions between AI companies and retail giants. Amazon recently sent a cease-and-desist letter to Perplexity AI, demanding it stop using the Comet browser on Amazon's site, accusing the AI agent of impersonating human shoppers and harming customer experience.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Additionally, researchers from Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology in South Korea have demonstrated that AI models can develop digital behaviors akin to gambling addiction. The latest study placed four major language models in a negative expected value simulated slot machine, observing their rapid bankruptcies. When presented with varying betting options and asked to "maximize rewards," the models had a bankruptcy probability of up to 48%.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Perplexity disputed Amazon's actions, calling it a "legal bluster" that threatens user autonomy, asserting that consumers should have the right to employ their own digital assistants rather than rely on platform-controlled ones.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Currently, this open-source simulation environment is available on GitHub, allowing other researchers to replicate these findings and observe market chaos in the simulation.</p>

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</div></div><p>微软最近建立了一个模拟经济体，让数百个AI担任买方和卖方，并观察它们在处理基本任务时的失败情况。这些结果应引起任何押注于自动化 AI 购物助手人士的担忧。</p><p>即加入CFTime TG讨论区！想掌握最新加密市场动态与AI新闻与资讯，更能随时获得免费web 3入场券！</p><p>根据微软与亚利桑那州立大学合作发布的Magentic Marketplace研究，100个客户端AI代理与300个商业端代理在订餐等场景中进行对抗。尽管结果在预期之内，研究显示自主代理商务的潜力尚未达到成熟阶段。</p><p>在面对100个搜索结果（对代理而言过于繁杂）时，主要的AI模型无法有效应对，其「福利得分」（衡量模型有用性的指标）显著下滑。这些代理未能进行全面比较，而是选择了遇到的第一个「足够好的」选项，形成了所谓的「首次提案偏见」，使得回应速度比实际质量快了10-30倍。</p><p>See more: 43% of Hong Kong companies have used AI agents! UiPath亲揭：多数老板「用AI非为减少员工」</p><p>AI购物助手容易受到恶意操纵</p><p>更糟糕的是，微软发现，AI购物代理还容易受到恶意操纵。微软测试了六种操纵策略，从伪造证件和社会证明等心理战术到激进的提示注入攻击。 OpenAI的GPT-4o和其开源模型GPTOSS-20b对这些操纵极其脆弱，所有支付都成功转向了恶意代理，而阿里巴巴的Qwen3-4b则容易受到基本的说服技术影响，只有Claude Sonnet 4能够抵抗这些操纵。</p><p>当微软要求代理们朝着共同目标努力时，有些代理无法明确其角色或有效协调。尽管在有明确的逐步人类指导下，表现有所改善，但这却违背了自主代理的目的。</p><p>因此，微软建议，当前使用AI代理进行购物的效果并不理想。微软表示：“代理应辅助，而非取代人类的决策。”该研究建议采用监督自主模式，让代理在处理任务的同时，人类保留控制权并在最终决策前审查建议。</p><p>这些发现恰逢 OpenAI、Anthropic 等公司竞相推出自主购物助手。 OpenAI 的 Operator 和 Anthropic 的 Claude 代理承诺能在无监督的情况下导航网站并完成购买，但微软的研究显示这一承诺为时尚早。</p><p>亚马逊要求其停止在亚马逊网站上使用Comet浏览器</p><p>同时，AI代理不负责任的行为引发了AI公司与零售巨头之间的紧张关系。亚马逊最近向Perplexity AI发出停止信，要求其停止在亚马逊网站上使用Comet浏览器，指控该AI代理假冒人类购物者，损害顾客体验。</p><p>此外，韩国光州科技院的研究人员证明，AI模型可以发展出类似赌博成瘾的数位行为。最新研究将四个主要语言模型放入一个负期望值的模拟老虎机中，观察它们在惊人速度下破产的情况。当给予变化的投注选项并要求「最大化奖励」时，模型破产的概率高达48%。</p><p>Perplexity对亚马逊的行动作出反驳，称其为「法律虚张声势」，并威胁用户的自主性，主张消费者应有权聘用自己的数位助手，而非依赖平台控制的助手。</p><p>目前，这一开源模拟环境已在 Github 上提供，供其他研究人员重现这些发现，并在模拟市场中观察混乱的情况。</p>

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</div></div><p>微軟最近建立了一個模擬經濟體，讓數百個 AI 擔任買方和賣方，並觀察它們在處理基本任務時的失敗情況。這些結果應引起任何押注於自動化 AI購物助手人士的擔憂。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根據微軟與亞利桑那州立大學合作發布的<a href="https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/magentic-marketplace-an-open-source-simulation-environment-for-studying-agentic-markets/"> Magentic Marketplace 研究</a>，100 個客戶端 AI 代理與 300 個商業端代理在訂餐等場景中進行對抗。儘管結果在預期之內，研究顯示自主代理商務的潛力尚未達到成熟階段。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在面對 100 個搜索結果（對代理而言過於繁雜）時，主要的 AI 模型無法有效應對，其「福利得分」（衡量模型有用性的指標）顯著下滑。這些代理未能進行全面比較，而是選擇了遇到的第一個「足夠好的」選項，形成了所謂的「首次提案偏見」，使得回應速度比實際質量快了 10-30 倍。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a href="https://cftime.io/uipath/"><strong>看更多：43%港企已用AI代理！UiPath親揭：多數老闆「用AI非為減少員工」</strong></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>AI購物助手 容易受到惡意操縱</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>更糟糕的是，微軟發現，AI購物代理還容易受到惡意操縱。微軟測試了六種操縱策略，從偽造證件和社會證明等心理戰術到激進的提示注入攻擊。OpenAI 的 GPT-4o 和其開源模型 GPTOSS-20b 對這些操縱極其脆弱，所有支付都成功轉向了惡意代理，而阿里巴巴的 Qwen3-4b 則容易受到基本的說服技術影響，只有 Claude Sonnet 4 能抵抗這些操縱。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>當微軟要求代理們朝著共同目標努力時，有些代理無法明確其角色或有效協調。儘管在有明確的逐步人類指導下，表現有所改善，但這卻違背了自主代理的目的。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>因此，微軟建議，當前使用 AI 代理進行購物的效果並不理想。微軟表示：「代理應輔助，而非取代人類的決策。」該研究建議採用監督自主模式，讓代理在處理任務的同時，人類保留控制權並在最終決策前審查建議。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>這些發現恰逢 OpenAI、Anthropic 等公司競相推出自主購物助手。OpenAI 的 Operator 和 Anthropic 的 Claude 代理承諾能在無監督的情況下導航網站並完成購買，但微軟的研究顯示這一承諾為時尚早。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>亞馬遜要求其停止在亞馬遜網站上使用 Comet 瀏覽器</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>同時，AI 代理不負責任的行為引發了 AI 公司與零售巨頭之間的緊張關係。亞馬遜最近向 Perplexity AI 發出停止信，要求其停止在亞馬遜網站上使用 Comet 瀏覽器，指控該 AI 代理假冒人類購物者，損害顧客體驗。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此外，韓國光州科技院的研究人員證明，AI 模型可以發展出類似賭博成癮的數位行為。最新研究將四個主要語言模型放入一個負期望值的模擬老虎機中，觀察它們在驚人速度下破產的情況。當給予變化的投注選項並要求「最大化獎勵」時，模型破產的概率高達 48%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Perplexity 對亞馬遜的行動作出反駁，稱其為「法律虛張聲勢」，並威脅用戶的自主性，主張消費者應有權聘用自己的數位助手，而非依賴平台控制的助手。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>目前，這一開源模擬環境已在 Github 上提供，供其他研究人員重現這些發現，並在模擬市場中觀察混亂的情況。</p>

The weaknesses of AI shopping assistants are fully exposed

AI购物助手弱点全曝光 微软实验：多选择就当机 GPT-4o还会被骗到「乱花钱」 仅一幸存

AI購物助手弱點全曝光 微軟實驗：多選擇就當機 GPT-4o還會被騙到「亂花錢」 僅一倖存

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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Ethereum plans to deploy its Fusaka upgrade on December 3, aimed at enhancing rollup scalability, node efficiency, and wallet functionalities. The focus is not on flashy new features but on strengthening the underlying infrastructure. The core of this upgrade comes from EIP-7594, which introduces peer data availability sampling, allowing nodes to verify blob data by sampling small chunks from peer nodes without needing to download the entire dataset.</p><p>This architecture reduces bandwidth requirements while maintaining security, enabling Ethereum to increase blob capacity without requiring validators to run data center-level infrastructure. For layer two networks, lower data costs directly translate to reduced transaction fees for end users, ensuring stability even during periods of high network congestion.</p><h3>Fusaka Upgrade: Blob Capacity Expansion and Block Size Changes</h3><p>The Fusaka upgrade will trigger a series of small forks limited to blob parameters, scheduled to take place immediately after the mainnet deployment. BPO1 will occur on December 9, raising the blob target from 6 to 10 and the maximum from 9 to 15. Subsequently, BPO2 on January 7 will push the target to 14, with a maximum of 21. This configuration-only approach allows for rapid capacity expansion without a full hard fork, enabling the network to monitor performance and stability during the gradual increase.</p><p>Additionally, EIP-7935 will raise the default block gas limit to 60 million, further expanding the throughput for legitimate use. EIP-7825 sets the limit for a single transaction at 16,777,216 gas, preventing a single operation from monopolizing an entire block. This dual implementation increases network capacity while closing denial-of-service vulnerabilities, paving the way for parallel processing of future transactions.</p><h3>Ethereum Upgrade: Blob Fee Market Stability and Network Protocol Cleanup</h3><p>EIP-7918 links the base fee for blobs to execution layer costs, preventing extreme price fluctuations during early implementations, thus avoiding crashes to zero or surges unaffected by layer one network conditions. This allows rollup operators to achieve a more predictable cost structure for planning and budgeting, leading to a better user experience with fewer inexplicable low prices or excessively high blob release days.</p><p>EIP-7642 introduces eth/69, simplifying the peer-to-peer protocol by removing legacy elements from the proof-of-work era and receipt bloom. This streamlined gossip layer will reduce bandwidth consumption and simplify client implementation. Combined with PeerDAS, this cleanup lowers resource demands for synchronizing validators and full node operators.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-5.png" alt=""></figure><h3>Ethereum Upgrade: Hard Block Size Limit and Validator Coordination Improvements</h3><p>EIP-7934 sets a hard RLP execution limit on block size, preventing blocks from expanding to unmanageable byte sizes under an attacker maximizing gas usage, thus safeguarding performance in hostile environments.</p><p>EIP-7917 standardizes deterministic proposer foresight, clarifying the network's ability to anticipate upcoming block proposers. This predictability benefits layer two sequencers, bridging operators, and MEV infrastructure, allowing for better coordination of pre-confirmation and reducing uncertainty in proposer duty assignments.</p><h3>Wallet and Developer Tools</h3><p>EIP-7951 adds native support for secp256r1 precompiles, aligning with security enclaves on iPhone and Android as well as WebAuthn keys. This implementation simplifies wallet building and hardware-backed authentication, eliminating the need for workarounds.</p><p>EIP-7939 introduces an opcode for counting leading zeros, providing gas savings for zero-knowledge circuits, compression algorithms, and low-level mathematical operations. EIP-7910 enables tools to query fork and configuration data directly from nodes via eth_config, removing the need for guesswork regarding upgrade parameters.</p><h3>Ethereum Upgrade: Cryptographic Operation Repricing and Home Staking Advantages</h3><p>EIP-7883 and EIP-7823 refine the pricing of ModExp precompiles, tightening ranges and increasing costs for large exponentiation calculations. These adjustments close attack vectors that could delay block processing due to low-cost operations while establishing accurate pricing for computationally expensive cryptographic functions.</p><p>The combined effects of PeerDAS bandwidth reduction, eth/69 protocol cleanup, transaction limits, and block size restrictions lower the hardware and connectivity requirements for full nodes and validator operations. These reduced thresholds support decentralization, allowing home staking to remain economically viable without enterprise-grade infrastructure.</p><p>The Fusaka upgrade enables Ethereum to handle significantly higher rollup throughput and layer one transaction volumes. This upgrade provides expanded blob capacity, refined fee markets, clearer network protocols, and improved developer tools without introducing flashy consumer-facing features.</p><p>The deployment on December 3 marks a reinforcement of the infrastructure, aimed at supporting long-term scalability as blockchain adoption surpasses the current user base.</p>

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</div></div><p>以太坊计划于 12 月 3 日部署其 Fusaka升级，该升级旨在提升 rollup 可扩展性、节点效率和钱包功能，重点不在于华丽的新特性，而是基础设施的增强。此次升级的核心来自 EIP-7594，这一提案引入了对等数据可用性采样，让节点通过从对等节点采样小块数据来验证 blob 数据，而无需下载完整的数据集。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>这一架构在保持安全性的同时，减少了带宽需求，使以太坊能够扩大 blob 容量，而不必要求验证者运行数据中心级的基础设施。对于二层网络来说，较低的数据成本直接转化为终端用户的更低交易费用，即使在网络高拥堵期间也能保持稳定。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>Fusaka 升级：Blob 容量扩展和区块大小变更</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Fusaka 升级后将触发一系列仅限 blob 参数的小型分叉，这些分叉计划在主网部署后立即进行。 BPO1 将于 12 月 9 日将 blob 目标从 6 提高至 10，最大值从 9 提高至 15。随后，BPO2 于 1 月 7 日将目标推至 14，最大值达到 21。这种仅配置的方式使得快速扩展容量变得可行，而无需进行完整的硬分叉，让网络能够在逐步增加过程中监控性能和稳定性。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此外，EIP-7935 将默认区块气体限制提高至 6000 万，进一步扩大了合法使用的吞吐量。 EIP-7825 同时将单笔交易的上限设置为 16,777,216 气体，防止单一操作垄断整个区块。这一双重实施增加了网络容量，同时关闭了拒绝服务的漏洞，为未来交易的并行处理铺平了道路。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>以太坊升级：Blob 费用市场稳定和网络协议清理</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>EIP-7918 将 blob 基础费用与执行层成本挂钩，防止出现早期实施中的极端价格波动，从而避免 blob 费用崩溃至零或不受一层网络条件影响的激增。这使得 rollup 操作员能够获得更可预测的成本结构以进行规划和预算，并使终端用户体验到更少的不可解释的低价或过于昂贵的 blob 发布日。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-5.png" alt=""><figcaption>EIP-7918 视觉化解释&nbsp;。</figcaption></figure><p>EIP-7642 引入了 eth/69，简化了点对点协议，去除了工作证明时代的遗留物和收据 bloom，这一精简的 gossip 层将减少带宽消耗，简化客户端实现。结合 PeerDAS，这一清理使得验证者和完整节点操作员的同步维护变得资源需求更低。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>以太坊升级：实体区块大小限制和验证者协调改进</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>EIP-7934 对区块大小设置了硬性 RLP 执行限制，防止区块在攻击者最大化气体使用的情况下扩展至难以管理的字节数，这一保护措施保护链条在敌对环境下不至于性能下降。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>EIP-7917 标准化了确定性提议者前瞻，明确了网络提前识别即将到来的区块提议者的距离，这一可预测性使得二层序列器、桥接操作员和 MEV 基础设施受益，从而能够更好地协调预确认，减少提议者职责分配的不确定性。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>钱包和开发者工具</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>EIP-7951 增加了对 secp256r1 预编译的原生支持，与 iPhone 和 Android 的安全区域以及 WebAuthn 密钥相匹配。这一实现简化了类似密码的钱包构建和硬件支持的身份验证，消除了需使用变通方法的需求。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>EIP-7939 引入了一个计数前导零的操作码，为零知识电路、压缩算法和低级数学运算提供了气体节省。 EIP-7910 使工具能够通过 eth_config 直接从节点查询分叉和配置数据，消除了对升级参数的猜测需求。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>以太坊升级：密码操作重新定价和家庭质押优势</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>EIP-7883 和 EIP-7823 精炼了 ModExp 预编译的定价，收紧范围并提高大次方计算的成本，这些调整关闭了低价操作可能导致区块处理延迟的攻击向量，同时为计算上昂贵的密码功能建立了准确的定价。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>PeerDAS 带宽减少、eth/69 协议清理、交易上限和区块大小限制的综合效果降低了完整节点和验证者操作的硬件和连接需求，这些降低的门槛支持去中心化，让家庭质押在不需企业级基础设施的情况下仍保持经济可行性。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Fusaka 升级使以太坊能够处理显著更高的 rollup 吞吐量和一层交易量。这次升级提供了扩展的 blob 容量、精炼的费用市场、更清晰的网络协议和改善的开发者工具，并未引入华丽的面向消费者的新功能。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>12 月 3 日的部署标志着基础设施的加固，旨在支持随着区块链采用超越当前用户群而实现的长期可扩展性。</p>

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</div></div><p><a href="https://cftime.io/ethereum-is-severely-undervalued/">以太坊</a>計劃於 12 月 3 日部署其 Fusaka升級，該升級旨在提升 rollup 可擴展性、節點效率和錢包功能，重點不在於華麗的新特性，而是基礎設施的增強。此次升級的核心來自 EIP-7594，這一提案引入了對等數據可用性採樣，讓節點通過從對等節點採樣小塊數據來驗證 blob 數據，而無需下載完整的數據集。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>這一架構在保持安全性的同時，減少了帶寬需求，使以太坊能夠擴大 blob 容量，而不必要求驗證者運行數據中心級的基礎設施。對於二層網絡來說，較低的數據成本直接轉化為終端用戶的更低交易費用，即使在網絡高擁堵期間也能保持穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Fusaka 升級：Blob 容量擴展和區塊大小變更</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a href="https://cftime.io/ethereum-foundation-lays-off-a-large-number-of-employees/">Fusaka </a>升級後將觸發一系列僅限 blob 參數的小型分叉，這些分叉計劃在主網部署後立即進行。BPO1 將於 12 月 9 日將 blob 目標從 6 提高至 10，最大值從 9 提高至 15。隨後，BPO2 於 1 月 7 日將目標推至 14，最大值達到 21。這種僅配置的方式使得快速擴展容量變得可行，而無需進行完整的硬分叉，讓網絡能夠在逐步增加過程中監控性能和穩定性。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此外，EIP-7935 將默認區塊氣體限制提高至 6000 萬，進一步擴大了合法使用的吞吐量。EIP-7825 同時將單筆交易的上限設置為 16,777,216 氣體，防止單一操作壟斷整個區塊。這一雙重實施增加了網絡容量，同時關閉了拒絕服務的漏洞，為未來交易的並行處理鋪平了道路。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>以太坊升級：Blob 費用市場穩定和網絡協議清理</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>EIP-7918 將 blob 基礎費用與執行層成本掛鉤，防止出現早期實施中的極端價格波動，從而避免 blob 費用崩潰至零或不受一層網絡條件影響的激增。這使得 rollup 操作員能夠獲得更可預測的成本結構以進行規劃和預算，並使終端用戶體驗到更少的不可解釋的低價或過於昂貴的 blob 發布日。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-5.png" alt=""><figcaption><i><strong>EIP-7918 視覺化解釋&nbsp;</strong></i><strong>。</strong></figcaption></figure><p>EIP-7642 引入了 eth/69，簡化了點對點協議，去除了工作證明時代的遺留物和收據 bloom，這一精簡的 gossip 層將減少帶寬消耗，簡化客戶端實現。結合 PeerDAS，這一清理使得驗證者和完整節點操作員的同步維護變得資源需求更低。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>以太坊升級：實體區塊大小限制和驗證者協調改進</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>EIP-7934 對區塊大小設置了硬性 RLP 執行限制，防止區塊在攻擊者最大化氣體使用的情況下擴展至難以管理的字節數，這一保護措施保護鏈條在敵對環境下不至於性能下降。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>EIP-7917 標準化了確定性提議者前瞻，明確了網絡提前識別即將到來的區塊提議者的距離，這一可預測性使得二層序列器、橋接操作員和 MEV 基礎設施受益，從而能夠更好地協調預確認，減少提議者職責分配的不確定性。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>錢包和開發者工具</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>EIP-7951 增加了對 secp256r1 預編譯的原生支持，與 iPhone 和 Android 的安全區域以及 WebAuthn 密鑰相匹配。這一實現簡化了類似密碼的錢包構建和硬件支持的身份驗證，消除了需使用變通方法的需求。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>EIP-7939 引入了一個計數前導零的操作碼，為零知識電路、壓縮算法和低級數學運算提供了氣體節省。EIP-7910 使工具能夠通過 eth_config 直接從節點查詢分叉和配置數據，消除了對升級參數的猜測需求。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>以太坊升級：密碼操作重新定價和家庭質押優勢</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>EIP-7883 和 EIP-7823 精煉了 ModExp 預編譯的定價，收緊範圍並提高大次方計算的成本，這些調整關閉了低價操作可能導致區塊處理延遲的攻擊向量，同時為計算上昂貴的密碼功能建立了準確的定價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>PeerDAS 帶寬減少、eth/69 協議清理、交易上限和區塊大小限制的綜合效果降低了完整節點和驗證者操作的硬件和連接需求，這些降低的門檻支持去中心化，讓家庭質押在不需企業級基礎設施的情況下仍保持經濟可行性。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Fusaka 升級使以太坊能夠處理顯著更高的 rollup 吞吐量和一層交易量。這次升級提供了擴展的 blob 容量、精煉的費用市場、更清晰的網絡協議和改善的開發者工具，並未引入華麗的面向消費者的新功能。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>12 月 3 日的部署標誌著基礎設施的加固，旨在支持隨著區塊鏈採用超越當前用戶群而實現的長期可擴展性。</p>

A Comprehensive Analysis of the Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade

以太坊Fusaka升级全面解析！ 可扩展性迎来飞跃

以太坊Fusaka升級全面解析！ 可擴展性迎來飛躍

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</div></div><p>As quantum computing technology approaches the core encryption that secures Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency faces its most severe existential threat.</p><p>Quantum computing is no longer just a figment of science fiction or a dream of cryptopunks; it has become a real threat to the world’s first borderless currency. If you once believed that Satoshi Nakamoto's creation could escape existential risks, you may need to reconsider. A recent report from the Human Rights Foundation (HRF) has highlighted concerns from many Bitcoin holders and cryptographers.</p><h2>Is Quantum Computing a Threat to Bitcoin?</h2><p>HRF's detailed analysis indicates that Bitcoin is not merely a speculative asset, but an essential lifeline for activists, journalists, and dissenters facing financial oppression. The decentralized, private, and permissionless nature of Bitcoin enables the flow of donations while avoiding government seizures.</p><p>However, the security of all this relies on robust encryption technology, and quantum computing is the only technological breakthrough capable of dismantling these intangible protections. Quantum computing could put nearly $700 billion worth of Bitcoin at risk, with 4.49 million Bitcoins being secure only if their holders act swiftly to migrate them to quantum-resistant addresses.</p><p>Despite researchers being eager to roll out quantum-safe upgrades, progress in the Bitcoin world is slow, leading to fierce debates about whether to "burn" immovable coins (potentially affecting Bitcoin's neutrality) or risk being robbed by quantum thieves.</p><p>More importantly, quantum-safe transactions could exacerbate the blockchain's bloat, turning Bitcoin's scalability issue from a minor headache into an overwhelming migraine. This is not just a technical challenge; it tests whether the network is willing to evolve without undermining Bitcoin’s core attributes. Nic Carter, co-founder of Coin Metrics and a Bitcoin advocate, bluntly states:</p><blockquote><p>“In my view, quantum computing poses the greatest risk to Bitcoin. This is a significant issue for many financial systems and other blockchains, but for Bitcoin, it is a unique and difficult challenge.”</p></blockquote><h2>How Many Bitcoins Are at Risk?</h2><p>The HRF report reveals that approximately 6.5 million Bitcoins (nearly a third of all BTC) are currently vulnerable to so-called "long-range" quantum attacks. These attacks target older or reused address types. Theoretically, owners can protect 4.49 million Bitcoins by migrating their balances to quantum-resistant addresses.</p><p>However, this means that 1.7 million BTC, including the legendary 1.1 million belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto, would be frozen and potentially exposed to quantum thieves in the future. Quantum threats can mainly be categorized into two attack vectors: "long-range attacks" and "short-range attacks."</p><p>Long-range attacks target idle and reused addresses, exploiting exposed public keys, while short-range attacks use transaction windows to steal funds before confirmation, provided the attacker can compute the private key in real time.</p><h2>Burn or Be Burned: Protocol Politics</h2><p>The decentralized upgrade process of Bitcoin is its greatest asset, but it is also its biggest weakness on this issue. Unlike Apple's latest OS updates, Bitcoin does not automatically receive security patches. Achieving consensus often takes years rather than weeks.</p><p>The debate over "burn or steal" intensifies: Should developers burn coins susceptible to quantum attacks, freeze them, or allow quantum thieves to steal lost wallets? There is no consensus on this matter, which is not surprising for a project that values property rights, anti-censorship, and anti-governance. The report concludes:</p><blockquote><p>“Upgrading Bitcoin to withstand quantum threats is both a human challenge and a cryptographic challenge. Any successful soft fork integrating quantum-resistant signature schemes will require user education, thoughtful user interface design, and coordination within a global ecosystem that includes users, developers, hardware manufacturers, node operators, and civil society.”</p></blockquote><h2>New Algorithms, Bigger Blocks, and New Challenges</h2><p>Transitioning to quantum-resistant algorithms is not just a technical add-on. HRF highlights two categories of solutions: lattice-based and hash-based signature schemes, each with different trade-offs. Larger keys mean bulkier transactions, fewer transactions per block, heavier full nodes, and new challenges in the Bitcoin scaling wars.</p><p>As a reference, lattice-based signatures are about ten times the size of current signatures, while the most streamlined hash-based alternatives are about 38 times larger. Each technical fix will require wallet redesigns, hardware updates, retraining of node operators, and user education on a global scale.</p><p>The community must coordinate among coders, wallet builders, advocacy groups, and millions of skeptical holders (many of whom may not even know their coins are at risk). History shows that even friendly upgrades can take years to pass, and with the timeline for quantum computing still uncertain, the window for action may close faster than anticipated.</p><h2>Future Outlook: Resilience or Ruin?</h2><p>Any lasting solution will require grassroots support, not just GitHub commits. The fate of forgotten Bitcoins (and potentially the legitimacy of the entire ecosystem) hinges on how the network responds to these political, technical, and social challenges over the next decade.</p><p>For Bitcoin's rebels, cryptopunks, and involuntary exiles, the message is clear: continuous education, ongoing upgrades, and do not assume Satoshi's armor is permanently bulletproof. As Bitcoin security expert, core developer, and co-founder of Casa, Jameson Lopp warns, an even greater threat than quantum computing is apathy:</p><blockquote><p>“If people are indifferent to ongoing discussions about improving Bitcoin, it will become vulnerable and more susceptible to new threats.”</p></blockquote>

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</div></div><p>量子计算破解比特币？随着量子计算技术逐渐逼近破解比特币的加密核心，比特币目前面临着其最严重的生存威胁。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>量子计算不再仅仅是科幻小说或密码朋克的幻想，它已成为世界首个无国界货币的现实威胁。如果你曾认为中本聪的创作能免于生存风险，那么你可能需要重新考虑。人权基金会（HRF）最近的报告中，许多比特币持有者和密码学家的观点引发了关注。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>量子计算破解比特币？被视为比特币的「最大风险」</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>HRF 的详细分析指出，比特币不仅仅是一个投机性的资产，而是面对财政压迫的活动家、记者和异议人士的重要生命线。比特币的去中心化、私隐和无需许可的特性使得捐款流动得以维持，并避免政府的查扣。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，这一切的安全性都依赖于稳固的加密技术，而量子计算则是唯一能够摧毁这些无形保护的技术突破。量子计算将使近 7000 亿美元的比特币面临风险，另有 449 万枚比特币仅在持有者迅速行动，并将其迁移到抗量子地址时才能安全。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>尽管研究人员急于推出量子安全的升级，但比特币的世界进展缓慢，这导致了关于是否应「烧毁」不可移动的币（并影响比特币的中立性）或冒着量子盗贼抢劫的风险之间的激烈辩论。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>更重要的是，量子安全的交易将使区块链膨胀，将比特币的扩展问题从轻微的头痛变成压倒性的偏头痛。这不仅是技术上的挑战；还考验着网络是否愿意在不破坏比特币核心特质的情况下进行演变。 Coin Metrics 的联合创始人及比特币倡导者 Nic Carter 在他最近的著作中直言道：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「在我看来，量子计算是比特币面临的最大风险。这对许多金融系统和其他区块链来说都是一个重大问题，但对比特币来说，这是一个独特且难以解决的挑战。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>有多少比特币面临风险？</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>HRF 的报告显示，大约 650 万枚比特币（几乎是所有 BTC 的三分之一）目前易受到所谓的「长距离」量子攻击的威胁。这些攻击针对旧的或重复使用的地址类型。理论上，拥有者可以通过将余额迁移到抗量子地址来保护 449 万枚比特币。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，这意味着 170 万枚 BTC，包括中本聪传奇的 110 万枚，将被冻结，并在未来可能完全暴露于量子盗贼之下。量子威胁主要可分为两个攻击向量：「长距离攻击」和「短距离攻击」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>长距离攻击针对闲置和重复使用的地址，利用暴露的公钥；短距离攻击则利用交易窗口，在确认之前窃取资金，前提是攻击者能够即时计算私人密钥。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>「烧毁」或被烧毁：协议政治</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>比特币的去中心化升级过程是其最大的资产，但在此议题上也是其最大的弱点。与苹果最新的操作系统更新不同，比特币不会自动获得安全修复。共识的达成往往需要多年而非数周。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「烧毁或盗窃」的辩论愈演愈烈：开发者应该烧毁易受量子攻击的币、冻结它们，还是让量子盗贼盗取失落的钱包？在这一问题上，没有人达成共识，这对于一个重视财产权、抗审查和反治理的项目来说并不意外。报告总结道：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「升级比特币以抵御量子威胁，既是一项人类挑战，也是一项加密挑战。任何成功的软分叉集成量子抗性签名方案都需要用户教育、周到的用户界面设计，以及在包括用户、开发者、硬件制造商、节点运营商和公民社会在内的全球生态系统中的协调。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>新的算法、更大的区块及新的挑战</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>转向抗量子算法不仅仅是一个技术附带问题。 HRF 突出强调了两类解决方案：基于格的和基于哈希的签名方案，每种方案都有不同的权衡。更大的密钥意味着更笨重的交易、每个区块的交易数量减少、更重的完整节点，以及比特币扩展战争中的新挑战。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>作为参考，基于格的签名约为当前签名的十倍大小，而最精简的基于哈希的替代方案则大约大 38 倍。每一项技术修复都将需要钱包重新设计、硬件更新、节点操作员再培训，以及全球范围内的用户教育。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>社区必须在编码者、钱包建设者、倡导团体和数百万怀疑的持有者之间进行协调（许多人甚至不知道自己的币处于危险之中）。历史表明，即使是友好的升级也需要数年才能通过，而随着量子计算的时间表仍然不明，行动的窗口可能比预期的更快关闭。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>未来展望：韧性或毁灭？</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>任何持久的解决方案都需要基层的支持，而不仅仅是 GitHub 的提交。被遗忘的比特币（以及可能是整个生态系统的合法性）的命运取决于网络如何在未来十年内应对这些政治、技术和社会挑战。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>对于比特币的叛逆者、密码朋克和非自愿的流亡者来说，信息是明确的。持续教育、持续升级，不要假设中本聪的盔甲是永久防弹的。正如比特币安全专家、核心开发者及 Casa 的联合创始人 Jameson Lopp 所警告的，甚至比量子计算更大的威胁是漠不关心：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「如果人们对持续讨论改善比特币感到漠不关心，那么它就会变得脆弱，并更容易受到新威胁的侵袭。」</p>

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</div></div><p><a href="https://cftime.io/quantum-day/">量子計算</a>破解比特幣？隨著量子計算技術逐漸逼近破解比特幣的加密核心，比特幣目前面臨著其最嚴重的生存威脅。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>量子計算不再僅僅是科幻小說或密碼朋克的幻想，它已成為世界首個無國界貨幣的現實威脅。如果你曾認為中本聰的創作能免於生存風險，那麼你可能需要重新考慮。<a href="https://hrf.org/latest/the-quantum-threat-to-bitcoin/">人權基金會（HRF）最近的報告中</a>，許多比特幣持有者和密碼學家的觀點引發了關注。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>量子計算破解比特幣？被視為比特幣的「最大風險」</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>HRF 的詳細分析指出，比特幣不僅僅是一個投機性的資產，而是面對財政壓迫的活動家、記者和異議人士的重要生命線。比特幣的去中心化、私隱和無需許可的特性使得捐款流動得以維持，並避免政府的查扣。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，這一切的安全性都依賴於穩固的加密技術，而量子計算則是唯一能夠摧毀這些無形保護的技術突破。量子計算將使近 7000 億美元的比特幣面臨風險，另有 449 萬枚比特幣僅在持有者迅速行動，並將其遷移到抗量子地址時才能安全。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>儘管研究人員急於推出量子安全的升級，但比特幣的世界進展緩慢，這導致了關於是否應「燒毀」不可移動的幣（並影響比特幣的中立性）或冒著量子盜賊搶劫的風險之間的激烈辯論。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>更重要的是，量子安全的交易將使區塊鏈膨脹，將比特幣的擴展問題從輕微的頭痛變成壓倒性的偏頭痛。這不僅是技術上的挑戰；還考驗著網絡是否願意在不破壞比特幣核心特質的情況下進行演變。Coin Metrics 的聯合創始人及比特幣倡導者 <a href="https://murmurationstwo.substack.com/p/bitcoin-and-the-quantum-problem-part">Nic Carter 在他最近的著作中直言道：</a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「在我看來，量子計算是比特幣面臨的最大風險。這對許多金融系統和其他區塊鏈來說都是一個重大問題，但對比特幣來說，這是一個獨特且難以解決的挑戰。」</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>有多少比特幣面臨風險？</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>HRF 的報告顯示，大約 650 萬枚比特幣（幾乎是所有 BTC 的三分之一）目前易受到所謂的「長距離」量子攻擊的威脅。這些攻擊針對舊的或重複使用的地址類型。理論上，擁有者可以通過將餘額遷移到抗量子地址來保護 449 萬枚比特幣。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，這意味著 170 萬枚 BTC，包括中本聰傳奇的 110 萬枚，將被凍結，並在未來可能完全暴露於量子盜賊之下。量子威脅主要可分為兩個攻擊向量：「長距離攻擊」和「短距離攻擊」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>長距離攻擊針對閒置和重複使用的地址，利用暴露的公鑰；短距離攻擊則利用交易窗口，在確認之前竊取資金，前提是攻擊者能夠即時計算私人密鑰。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>「燒毀」或被燒毀：協議政治</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>比特幣的去中心化升級過程是其最大的資產，但在此議題上也是其最大的弱點。與蘋果最新的操作系統更新不同，比特幣不會自動獲得安全修復。共識的達成往往需要多年而非數週。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「燒毀或盜竊」的辯論愈演愈烈：開發者應該燒毀易受量子攻擊的幣、凍結它們，還是讓量子盜賊盜取失落的錢包？在這一問題上，沒有人達成共識，這對於一個重視財產權、抗審查和反治理的項目來說並不意外。報告總結道：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「升級比特幣以抵禦量子威脅，既是一項人類挑戰，也是一項加密挑戰。任何成功的軟分叉集成量子抗性簽名方案都需要用戶教育、周到的用戶界面設計，以及在包括用戶、開發者、硬件製造商、節點運營商和公民社會在內的全球生態系統中的協調。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>新的算法、更大的區塊及新的挑戰</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>轉向抗量子算法不僅僅是一個技術附帶問題。HRF 突出強調了兩類解決方案：基於格的和基於哈希的簽名方案，每種方案都有不同的權衡。更大的密鑰意味著更笨重的交易、每個區塊的交易數量減少、更重的完整節點，以及比特幣擴展戰爭中的新挑戰。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>作為參考，基於格的簽名約為當前簽名的十倍大小，而最精簡的基於哈希的替代方案則大約大 38 倍。每一項技術修復都將需要錢包重新設計、硬件更新、節點操作員再培訓，以及全球範圍內的用戶教育。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>社區必須在編碼者、錢包建設者、倡導團體和數百萬懷疑的持有者之間進行協調（許多人甚至不知道自己的幣處於危險之中）。歷史表明，即使是友好的升級也需要數年才能通過，而隨著量子計算的時間表仍然不明，行動的窗口可能比預期的更快關閉。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>未來展望：韌性或毀滅？</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>任何持久的解決方案都需要基層的支持，而不僅僅是 GitHub 的提交。被遺忘的比特幣（以及可能是整個生態系統的合法性）的命運取決於網絡如何在未來十年內應對這些政治、技術和社會挑戰。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>對於比特幣的叛逆者、密碼朋克和非自願的流亡者來說，信息是明確的。持續教育、持續升級，不要假設中本聰的盔甲是永久防彈的。正如比特幣安全專家、核心開發者及 Casa 的聯合創始人 Jameson Lopp 所警告的，甚至比量子計算更大的威脅是漠不關心：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「如果人們對持續討論改善比特幣感到漠不關心，那麼它就會變得脆弱，並更容易受到新威脅的侵襲。」</p>

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