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</div></div><p>The legislative progress of the U.S. Senate crypto market structure bill has once again stalled over the <strong>issue of stablecoin yield</strong>. According to <strong>Punchbowl News</strong>, Coinbase representatives told senators in a meeting on <strong>Monday</strong> that they <strong>oppose</strong> the stablecoin-yield provisions in the latest compromise draft. This move could repeat history—after Coinbase withdrew support in <strong>January</strong>, the Senate Banking Committee <strong>indefinitely postponed</strong> consideration of the bill.</p><h3>Core Controversy: Ban on Third-Party Yield Payments</h3><p>Earlier this week, a rumored compromise proposal would prohibit exchanges and other <strong>third-party entities</strong> from paying stablecoin yield. The goal is to address banks’ concerns about <strong>deposit outflow risk</strong>.</p><p>Banking groups argue that stablecoin yield offered by exchanges is effectively a workaround for the “<strong>no direct payment of yield by issuers</strong>” framework under the <strong>Genius Act</strong>. They warn this could increase the risk of money flowing out of the traditional banking system and into stablecoins.</p><p>For crypto exchanges, stablecoin yield is a key revenue source. Crypto lobbying groups, meanwhile, say banks are overstating risks and accuse the banking industry of <strong>anti-competitive behavior</strong>.</p><h3>Coinbase’s Key Role in the “Clear Act” Stalemate</h3><p>Coinbase is among the largest crypto lobbyists in the U.S. In <strong>January</strong>, after it withdrew support, the Senate Banking Committee quickly <strong>deferred</strong> the bill indefinitely—showing Coinbase’s influence over the legislative process. This time, Coinbase’s renewed opposition may once again obstruct the latest push led by Republican Senator <strong>Thom Tillis</strong> and Democratic Senator <strong>Angela Alsobrooks</strong>.</p><p>Alsobrooks previously said the compromise bill could leave <strong>both sides dissatisfied</strong>, highlighting the inherent dilemma of this debate.</p><h3>Time Pressure: Midterm Elections Approaching</h3><p>Republicans are pushing to pass the bill before the <strong>November midterm elections</strong>, after which the composition of Congress could change—reducing momentum. The House already passed its version of the <strong>Clear Act</strong> in <strong>July last year</strong>, while the Senate has lagged significantly.</p><p>Senator <strong>Cynthia Lummis</strong> wrote on X:</p><blockquote><p>“We can’t wait until 2030 for the next opportunity. Bipartisan compromise is a necessary condition for passage of the Clear Act. We’re working around the clock to ensure stablecoin rewards are protected and to prevent community banks’ deposits from flowing out.”</p></blockquote><h3>White House Talks: Three Meetings, No Breakthrough Yet</h3><p>This year, the White House has held at least <strong>three</strong> meetings—trying to bring crypto and banks to an agreement—but so far there has been no result. Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the President’s Council on Digital Assets, said on X that social media is full of “a lot of misinformed FUD,” but he remains optimistic:</p><blockquote><p>“Everything will get resolved. Bullish.”</p></blockquote><h3>Conclusion: Stablecoin Yield Became the Legislative Roadblock</h3><p>From the <strong>Genius Act</strong> to the <strong>Clear Act</strong>, stablecoin yield has become the most difficult core dispute in U.S. crypto legislation. Coinbase’s latest opposition suggests that the window to pass a Senate bill before the midterms is narrowing.</p><p>In the tug-of-war between banks and the crypto industry, any compromise could anger one side while pleasing the other. The breakthrough may require more political momentum—not just technical wording. And in the end, the outcome of the midterm elections could matter more than any specific legislative clause.</p>

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</div></div><p>根据 <strong>Punchbowl News</strong> 报道，<strong>Coinbase</strong> 代表在<strong>周一</strong>与参议员的会议中明确表示：对最新妥协版本中关于<strong>稳定币收益</strong>的条款表示反对。该举动可能重演 <strong>1月Coinbase撤销支持后、参议院银行委员会无限期推迟审议</strong>的历史。</p><h3>争议核心：第三方收益支付禁令</h3><p>本周稍早流传的妥协提案，拟禁止交易所等<strong>第三方机构</strong>支付<strong>稳定币收益</strong>。其目的在于回应银行业对<strong>存款流失风险</strong>的担忧。</p><p>银行团体认为，交易所向用户提供稳定币收益，实际上可能构成对《天才法案》（禁止发发行人直接支付收益）框架的<strong>法律漏洞</strong>利用。银行担心这会引发资金从传统银行系统转向稳定币，增加金融外流风险。</p><p>对加密交易所而言，稳定币收益是重要收入来源；而加密游说团体则表示银行业<strong>夸大风险</strong>，并指责其存在<strong>反竞争行为</strong>。</p><h3>Coinbase的关键角色：再一次可能打断进程</h3><p>Coinbase 是美国最大的加密游说者之一。今年 <strong>1月</strong>，该公司撤销对法案的支持后，参议院银行委员会随即<strong>无限期推迟</strong>审议，显示其在立法进程中的影响力。</p><p>此次再次表达反对，可能使由共和党参议员 <strong>Thom Tillis</strong> 与民主党参议员 <strong>Angela Alsobrooks</strong> 主导的最新努力再次受阻。</p><p>Alsobrooks 上月曾表示：妥协法案可能让加密产业与银行双方都感到不满，凸显该议题的两难性质。</p><h3>立法时间压力：中期选举在即</h3><p>共和党正推动在 <strong>11月中期选举</strong>前通过法案，否则国会席位与政治动能可能发生变化，影响立法推进速度。</p><p>目前，众议院已在<strong>去年7月</strong>通过其版本的《清晰法案》，但参议院进度明显落后。</p><p>参议员 <strong>Cynthia Lummis</strong> 在社交平台 X 上写道：</p><blockquote><p>“我们不能等到2030年才有下一次机会。两党妥协是《清晰法案》通过的必要条件。我我们正在日以继夜工作，确保稳定币奖励受到保护，并防止社区银行的存款外流。”</p></blockquote><h3>白宫协商：三度会会议仍未果</h3><p>今年白宫至少举行了 <strong>三次</strong>会议，试图推动加密产业与银行业达成妥协，但目前仍没有结果。</p><p>总统数字资产顾问委员会执行主任 <strong>Patrick Witt</strong> 在 X 上表示：社交媒体充斥大量未经充分信息的“FUD”，但他仍乐观认为：</p><blockquote><p>“一切都会解决的。看涨。”</p></blockquote><h3>结论：稳定币收益成为立法路障</h3><p>从《天才法案》到《清晰法案》，稳定币收益已成为美国加密立法最难解的核心争议。Coinbase 的最新反对意味着：参议院法案在中期选举前通过的窗口正在缩小。</p><p>在银行业与加密产业的博弈中，任何妥协方案都可能在满足一方时激怒另一方。最终能否打破僵局，或许比技术性条款更依赖更大的政治推动力——而中期选举结果，也可能比任何具体条款更决定法案命运。</p>

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</div></div><p><a href="https://cftime.io/trump-criticizes-banks-for-hijacking-stablecoin/">清晰法案</a>再陷泥淖！美國參議院加密市場結構法案的立法進程，再度因穩定幣收益問題陷入僵局。根據<a href="https://punchbowl.news/article/finance/economy/coinbase-stablecoin-compromise/">Punchbowl News報導</a>，Coinbase代表在週一與參議員的會議中明確表示，對最新妥協版本中關於穩定幣收益的條款表達反對。此舉可能重演1月Coinbase撤銷支持後、參議院銀行委員會無限期推遲審議的歷史。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>爭議核心：第三方收益支付禁令</strong></h3><p>本週稍早流傳的妥協提案，擬禁止交易所等第三方機構支付穩定幣收益。此舉旨在回應銀行業對存款流失風險的擔憂——銀行團體認為，交易所提供的穩定幣收益是《天才法案》（禁止發行人直接支付收益）的法律漏洞，可能引發資金從銀行系統流向穩定幣的風險。</p><p>對於加密交易所而言，穩定幣收益是重要收入來源。加密遊說團體認為銀行業誇大風險，並指責其反競爭行為。</p><h3>清晰法案再陷泥淖 <strong>Coinbase的關鍵角色</strong></h3><p>Coinbase是美國最大的加密遊說者之一。今年1月，該公司撤銷對法案的支持後，參議院銀行委員會隨即無限期推遲審議，顯示其在立法進程中的關鍵影響力。此次再度表達反對，可能使由共和黨參議員Thom Tillis與民主黨參議員Angela Alsobrooks主導的最新努力再次受阻。</p><p>Alsobrooks上月曾表示，妥協法案可能讓加密產業與銀行雙方都不滿意，反映此議題的兩難本質。</p><h3><strong>立法時間壓力：中期選舉在即</strong></h3><p>共和黨人正推動在11月期中選舉前通過法案，屆時國會組成可能改變，立法動能恐受影響。眾議院已於去年7月通過其版本《清晰法案》，參議院進度明顯落後。</p><p>參議員Cynthia Lummis在社群平台X上發文：「我們不能等到2030年才有下一次機會。兩黨妥協是《清晰法案》通過的必要條件。我們正日以繼夜工作，確保穩定幣獎勵受到保護，並防止社區銀行的存款外流。」</p><h3><strong>白宮協商：三度會議未果</strong></h3><p>白宮今年已至少召開三次會議，試圖促成加密產業與銀行業達成妥協，但至今未有成果。總統數位資產顧問委員會執行主任Patrick Witt在X上表示，社群媒體充斥「大量未經充分資訊的FUD」，但他仍樂觀表示：「一切都會解決的。看漲。」</p><h3><strong>結論：穩定幣收益成為立法路障</strong></h3><p>從《天才法案》到《清晰法案》，穩定幣收益已成為美國加密立法最難解的核心爭議。Coinbase的最新反對，意味著參議院法案在期中選舉前通過的窗口正在縮小。在銀行業與加密產業的角力中，任何妥協方案都可能在滿足一方時激怒另一方。這場僵局的終點，或許需要更大的政治動能來打破——而期中選舉的結果，可能比任何技術性條款更能決定法案的命運。</p>

The Clarity Bill is mired in another quagmire

清晰法案再陷泥淖！ Coinbase带头反对妥协 银行业与加密产业的「收益大战」白热化

清晰法案再陷泥淖！Coinbase帶頭反對妥協 銀行業與加密產業的「收益大戰」白熱化

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</div></div><p>Since mid-2025, global <strong>M2</strong> money supply has grown by about <strong>12%</strong>, while Bitcoin has fallen by roughly <strong>35%</strong> over the same period—marking one of the largest decouplings on record.</p><p>According to the <strong>CF Benchmarks</strong> model, based on historical liquidity relationships, Bitcoin’s <strong>“fair value”</strong> is around <strong>$136,000</strong>, creating a wide gap versus the current price near <strong>$70,000</strong>. Analysts say the key drivers behind this decoupling are <strong>U.S. monetary tightening</strong> and <strong>rising energy costs</strong>.</p><h3>Join the CFTime Telegram (TG) Discussion Group!</h3><p>Want to stay on top of the latest crypto market updates and AI news &amp; insights? Get access to <strong>free Web3 entry passes</strong> anytime—join <strong>CFTime</strong>’s TG community now!</p><hr><h2>Bitcoin Liquidity Decoupling: Is the M2–Bitcoin Link Temporary?</h2><p>CF Benchmarks’ research director <strong>Gabe Selby</strong> said:</p><blockquote><p>“The key takeaway from more than a decade of data is that historical decoupling between M2 and Bitcoin has always been temporary.”</p></blockquote><p>Even though the current gap is significant, past experience suggests that Bitcoin often <strong>catches up to liquidity trends</strong> over multiple quarters.</p><hr><h2>The Missing Link: U.S. Monetary Tightening</h2><p>Despite global liquidity expansion, the Federal Reserve’s tightening stance restricts capital flows into risk assets. The Fed’s balance sheet has shrunk from a peak of nearly <strong>$9 trillion in 2022</strong> to about <strong>$6.7 trillion</strong>, and with interest rates staying high, financial conditions remain tight.</p><p>As a result, Bitcoin is more closely tied to <strong>real interest rates</strong> and <strong>overall risk sentiment</strong>, rather than <strong>nominal money supply growth</strong>.</p><hr><h2>Energy Costs: Rising Gas Prices Erode Household Cash Flow</h2><p>Economists estimate that since late February, an increase of <strong>81 U.S. cents</strong> in gas prices may add about <strong>$740 per household per year</strong> in spending. This partially offsets the expected rise in tax refunds under the Trump administration’s <strong>“Tax Relief for Working Families Act”</strong>—projected to increase average refunds by around <strong>$1,000</strong>.</p><p>Rising oil prices are also linked to ongoing tensions disrupting global oil supply lines—especially the <strong>Hormuz Strait</strong>. Oil prices briefly topped <strong>$100</strong> before later pulling back to around <strong>$92</strong>.</p><hr><h2>The Fed’s Stance: Rates Held Steady, Balancing Inflation and Jobs</h2><p>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at <strong>3.50%–3.75%</strong>, continuing the pause that began in January. With energy costs intensifying inflation pressures, the Fed remains cautious about easing.</p><hr><h2>Structural Demand: ETFs and Corporate Treasury Support</h2><p>Selby added that:</p><blockquote><p>“Through traditional financial channels—namely U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries—demand is returning, providing more direct and more mechanical support for a potential trend reversal.”</p></blockquote><p>This kind of sustained buying from these groups has become a <strong>structural demand source</strong> that didn’t exist in earlier cycles.</p><hr><h2>Conclusion: Wait for Catalysts to Repair the Decoupling</h2><p>The decoupling between Bitcoin and global liquidity reflects how the current macro environment is different: <strong>U.S. tightening</strong> and <strong>higher energy costs</strong> are jointly suppressing liquidity transmission into risk assets. However, historical patterns suggest this decoupling is temporary.</p><p>Catalysts that could “repair” the spread may come from two directions:</p><ol><li>a shift in Fed policy (<strong>rate cuts</strong> or a slower pace of balance sheet reduction), and</li><li>continued buying pressure through traditional channels (<strong>ETFs</strong> and <strong>corporate treasuries</strong>).</li></ol><p>Until then, Bitcoin’s price is likely to continue navigating the tug-of-war between liquidity expansion and policy tightening.</p><p>A <strong>$136,000</strong> “fair value” is both the model’s target and an implicit bet on future policy turning points.</p>

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</div></div><p>比特币流动性失灵？自2025年中以来，全球M2货币供应量增长约12%，而比特币同期下跌约35%，创下有记录以来最大的脱钩之一。 CF Benchmarks模型显示，根据历史流动性关系，比特币的「公允价值」约为136,000美元，与当前70,000美元附近价格形成巨大落差。分析师指出，美国货币政策紧缩与能源成本上升，是解释此脱钩的关键因素。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>比特币流动性失灵历史关系：M2与比特币的脱钩是暂时的</h3><p><br>CF Benchmarks研究主管Gabe Selby表示：「超过十年的数据得出的关键结论是，M2与比特币之间的脱钩历史上都是暂时的。」尽管当前差距显著，但过去经验显示，比特币往往在多季度时间跨度内追赶流动性趋势。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>失落的环节：美国货币政策紧缩</h3><p><br>尽管全球流动性扩张，美国美联储的紧缩政策限制了资本流入风险资产。美联储资产负债表已从2022年近9兆美元高峰降至约6.7兆美元，且利率维持高位，使金融条件持续紧缩。这使得比特币更紧密地与实质利率和整体风险情绪挂钩，而非名目货币供应增长。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>能源成本：汽油价格上涨侵蚀家庭现金流</h3><p><br>经济学家估计，自2月底以来美国汽油价格上涨81美分，可能使每个家庭全年增加约740美元支出。这部分抵消了特朗普政府《工薪家庭税收减免法案》带来的退税增长（预计平均增加1,000美元）。</p><p>油价上涨的背后是美伊冲突持续干扰全球石油供应关键动脉荷姆兹海峡。周四油价一度突破100美元，其后回落至92美元附近。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>美联储立场：利率维持不变，平衡通膨与就业</h3><p><br>美联储周三决议将联邦基金利率维持在3.50%至3.75%的目标区间，延续自1月开始的暂停态势。在能源成本上升加剧通膨压力的背景下，美联储对放松政策保持谨慎。</p><p>结构性需求：ETF与企业财库提供直接支持<br>Selby指出：「透过传统金融工具——即美国现货比特币ETF与企业财库——的需求回升，将为趋势逆转提供更直接、更机械性的支持。这些群体的持续买入，是过去周期中不存在的结构性需求来源。」</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>结论：等待催化剂的脱钩修复</h3><p><br>比特币与全球流动性的脱钩，反映的是当前宏观环境的特殊性——美国紧缩政策与能源成本上升共同压制了流动性向风险资产的传导。然而，历史模式显示此脱钩是暂时的。</p><p>修复的催化剂可能来自两方面：一是美联储政策转向（降息或放缓缩表），二是传统金融渠道（ETF、企业财库）的持续买盘。在此之前，比特币价格将继续在流动性扩张与政策紧缩的拉锯中寻找平衡。 136,000美元的公允价值，既是模型给出的目标，也是对未来政策转向的隐含押注。</p>

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</div></div><p><a href="https://cftime.io/bitcoin-consolidation-gains-momentum/">比特幣</a>流動性失靈？自2025年中以來，全球M2貨幣供應量增長約12%，而比特幣同期下跌約35%，創下有記錄以來最大的脫鉤之一。CF Benchmarks模型顯示，根據歷史流動性關係，比特幣的「公允價值」約為<strong>136,000美元</strong>，與當前70,000美元附近價格形成巨大落差。分析師指出，美國貨幣政策緊縮與能源成本上升，是解釋此脫鉤的關鍵因素。</p><h3>比特幣流動性失靈<strong>歷史關係：M2與比特幣的脫鉤是暫時的</strong></h3><p>CF Benchmarks研究主管Gabe Selby表示：「超過十年的數據得出的關鍵結論是，M2與比特幣之間的脫鉤歷史上都是暫時的。」儘管當前差距顯著，但過去經驗顯示，比特幣往往在多季度時間跨度內追趕流動性趨勢。</p><h3><strong>失落的環節：美國貨幣政策緊縮</strong></h3><p>儘管全球流動性擴張，美國美聯儲的緊縮政策限制了資本流入風險資產。美聯儲資產負債表已從2022年近9兆美元高峰降至約<strong>6.7兆美元</strong>，且利率維持高位，使金融條件持續緊縮。這使得比特幣更緊密地與實質利率和整體風險情緒掛鉤，而非名目貨幣供應增長。</p><h3><strong>能源成本：汽油價格上漲侵蝕家庭現金流</strong></h3><p>經濟學家估計，自2月底以來美國汽油價格上漲81美分，可能使每個家庭全年增加約<strong>740美元</strong>支出。這部分抵消了特朗普政府《工薪家庭稅收減免法案》帶來的退稅增長（預計平均增加1,000美元）。</p><p>油價上漲的背後是美伊衝突持續干擾全球石油供應關鍵動脈荷姆茲海峽。週四油價一度突破100美元，其後回落至92美元附近。</p><h3><strong>美聯儲立場：利率維持不變，平衡通膨與就業</strong></h3><p>美聯儲週三決議將聯邦基金利率維持在3.50%至3.75%的目標區間，延續自1月開始的暫停態勢。在能源成本上升加劇通膨壓力的背景下，美聯儲對放鬆政策保持謹慎。</p><h3><strong>結構性需求：ETF與企業財庫提供直接支持</strong></h3><p>Selby指出：「透過傳統金融工具——即美國現貨比特幣ETF與企業財庫——的需求回升，將為趨勢逆轉提供更直接、更機械性的支持。這些群體的持續買入，是過去週期中不存在的結構性需求來源。」</p><h3><strong>結論：等待催化劑的脫鉤修復</strong></h3><p>比特幣與全球流動性的脫鉤，反映的是當前宏觀環境的特殊性——美國緊縮政策與能源成本上升共同壓制了流動性向風險資產的傳導。然而，歷史模式顯示此脫鉤是暫時的。</p><p>修復的催化劑可能來自兩方面：一是美聯儲政策轉向（降息或放緩縮表），二是傳統金融渠道（ETF、企業財庫）的持續買盤。在此之前，比特幣價格將繼續在流動性擴張與政策緊縮的拉鋸中尋找平衡。136,000美元的公允價值，既是模型給出的目標，也是對未來政策轉向的隱含押注。</p>

Bitcoin Liquidity Failure? Global Money Floods the Market, Why is It Falling Instead of Rising?

比特币流动性失灵？全球钱淹脚目 为何不涨反跌？ CF Benchmarks揭两大元凶

比特幣流動性失靈？全球錢淹腳目 為何不漲反跌？CF Benchmarks揭兩大元凶

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</div></div><p>Last weekend, the U.S. military strikes against Iranian targets shocked global markets, and Bitcoin experienced classic volatility characterized by a "kill the longs first, then squeeze the shorts" pattern. After a massive liquidation of leveraged positions and extreme panic that turned funding rates negative, prices surprisingly rebounded, recovering key technical levels. This Middle Eastern conflict has left the market with thoughtful structural clues.</p><p>Join the CFTime TG discussion forum! Stay updated on the latest developments in the crypto market and AI news, and get free web3 entry tickets anytime!</p><h3><strong>Review of the Middle Eastern Conflict: Panic Selling → Leverage Cleaning → Short Squeeze Reversal</strong></h3><p>As news of the conflict escalation broke, traders quickly entered risk-off mode, with many leveraged traders betting on further declines, amassing large short positions. However, the downtrend did not persist. As spot buyers stepped in and prices stabilized, these overcrowded short positions were forced to cover, triggering a classic short squeeze.</p><p>The result was:</p><ul><li>Market leverage fell to multi-week lows.</li><li>Funding rates turned positive from negative.</li><li>Prices recovered key zone levels.</li><li>Open interest declined significantly, indicating that excessive leverage had been cleared.</li></ul><p>When prices rise while open interest declines, it typically reflects short covering rather than speculative euphoria.</p><h3><strong>Technical Structure: Recovery of $65,600, Potential Bottom Emerging</strong></h3><p>On the technical front, Bitcoin has regained the $65,600 range and has recovered the 7-day moving average (a short-term momentum indicator). Although not all technical signals have been fully reset, the overall pattern indicates a potential bottom structure rather than a continuation of the downtrend.</p><p>This development aligns with the view that "geopolitical risks may have already been priced in." Prior to the military strikes, the market was likely pricing in a high probability of conflict escalation before the end of March. When expected events ultimately occur, the market sometimes reacts with a "bad news priced in" response rather than continued panic.</p><h3><strong>Coinbase Premium: Return of U.S. Spot Buyers</strong></h3><p>Another noteworthy development is the reappearance of the Bitcoin premium on Coinbase. Historical experience shows that when Bitcoin trades at a slight premium on Coinbase compared to other exchanges, it indicates strong spot buying from the U.S. This is often viewed as a bullish signal during recovery phases.</p><p>At the same time, funding rates remain low compared to past rally phases, indicating that the market is not yet overheated due to long leverage.</p><h3><strong>Short-Term Outlook: Volatility Still High, Structure Becoming Healthier</strong></h3><p>In the short term, volatility may remain elevated. If tensions escalate further, the possibility of testing lower support levels cannot be ruled out. However, the overall structure suggests that Bitcoin may be forming a bottom rather than preparing for another round of collapse.</p><p>Key questions for traders include:</p><ul><li>Will leverage rebuild quickly or remain under control?</li><li>Can Bitcoin hold the recently reclaimed support level?</li><li>How will global markets react after Monday's opening?</li></ul><p>If support holds and leverage remains moderate, the likelihood of gradually challenging higher levels will increase.</p><h3><strong>Long-Term Perspective: Accumulation Range or Beginning of a Bear Market?</strong></h3><p>From a longer-term perspective, the current levels may represent an accumulation area rather than the start of a new bear market. The cleansing of shorts, the resetting of funding rates, and the decline in open interest have cleared a significant amount of excess speculation. Historical experience shows that Bitcoin often initiates sustainable recoveries after similar leverage resets.</p><h3><strong>Conclusion: Resilient Signals After the Stress Test</strong></h3><p>The market turmoil triggered by the Middle Eastern conflict ultimately served as a stress test rather than the start of a collapse. Bitcoin's resilience—demonstrated through the short squeeze, reappearance of premiums, and leverage resets—provides an unexpectedly constructive signal for the short-term market. Of course, the cryptocurrency's sensitivity to macro headlines will not disappear, but at least in this round of testing, the market structure has shown stronger absorption capacity than expected.</p>

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</div></div><p>上周末，美国对伊朗目标的军事打击震惊全球市场，比特币在剧烈波动中上演了一场经典的“先杀多、再轧空”戏码。在经历杠杆部位大规模清算、资金费率转负的极度恐慌后，价格竟逆势反弹，收复关键技术水平。这场中东战火给市场留下了值得深思的结构线索。</p><h3><strong>中东战火事件回顾：恐慌抛售→杠杆清洗→轧空反转</strong></h3><p>当冲突升级的消息传出，交易者迅速进入避险模式，大量杠杆交易者押注进一步下跌，累积庞大空头位。然而，跌势并未持续。随着现货买盘介入、价格趋稳，这些过度拥挤的空头部位被迫回补，触发经典的轧空。</p><p>结果是：</p><ul><li>市场杠杆降至多周低点。</li><li>资金费率由负转正。</li><li>价格收复关键区间水平。</li><li>未平仓合约显著下降，表明过度杠杆已被清除。</li></ul><p>当价格上涨伴随着未平仓合约下降，通常反映的是空头回补，而非投机狂热。</p><h3><strong>技术结构：收复65,600美元，潜在底部浮现</strong></h3><p>技术面上，比特币已重新站上65,600美元区间水平，并收复7日移动均线（短期动能指标）。尽管并非所有技术信号均已完全重置，但整体形态显现的是潜在的底部结构，而非下跌趋势的延续。</p><p>此一发展与“地缘政治风险可能已被提前定价”的观点相符。在军事打击发生前，预测市场已将3月底前冲突升级的概率定价在高位。当预期中的事件最终发生时，市场有时会以“利空出尽”而非持续恐慌来反应。</p><h3><strong>Coinbase溢价：美国现货买盘回归</strong></h3><p>另一个值得关注的发展是Coinbase比特币溢价的再次出现。历史经验显示，当比特币在Coinbase上的交易价格略高于其他交易所时，意味着来自美国的现货买盘较强。这在复苏阶段常被视为看涨信号。</p><p>与此同时，资金费率相比于过去反弹阶段仍处于低位，表明市场尚未因多头杠杆而过热。</p><h3><strong>短期展望：波动仍高，但结构趋于健康</strong></h3><p>短期内，波动率可能仍会维持在高位。若紧张局势进一步升级，再次测试更低支撑水平的可能性无法排除。然而，整体结构暗示比特币可能正在筑底，而非准备新一轮崩跌。</p><p>交易者关注的关键问题：</p><ul><li>杠杆会迅速重建还是维持受控？</li><li>比特币能否守住刚收复的区间支撑？</li><li>全球市场在周一开盘后如何反应？</li></ul><p>若支撑得以守住且杠杆维持温和，则逐步向上挑战的可能性将增加。</p><h3><strong>长期视角：累积区间还是熊市起点？</strong></h3><p>从更长期的视角来看，当前水平可能代表累积区域，而非新一轮熊市的开端。空头的清洗、资金费率的重置以及未平仓合约的下降，已清除大量投机过剩。历史经验显示，比特币常在类似的杠杆重置后开启可持续的复苏。</p><h3><strong>结论：压力测试后的市场韧性信号</strong></h3><p>这次中东冲突引发的市场动荡，最终成为一次压力测试，而非崩溃的开端。比特币在剧烈波动后展现的韧性——轧空、溢价重现、杠杆重置——为短期市场提供了一个意外的建设性信号。当然，加密货币对宏观标题的敏感性不会消失，但至少在本轮测试中，市场结构展现了比预期更强的消化能力。</p>

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</div></div><p>上週末，美國對<a href="https://cftime.io/the-iranian-currency/">伊朗</a>目標的軍事打擊震撼全球市場，比特幣在劇烈波動中上演了一場經典的「先殺多、再軋空」戲碼。在經歷槓桿部位大規模清算、資金費率轉負的極度恐慌後，價格竟逆勢反彈，收復關鍵技術水平。這場中東戰火壓力測試，為市場留下了值得深思的結構線索。</p><h3>中東戰火<strong>事件回顧：恐慌拋售→槓桿清洗→軋空反轉</strong></h3><p>當衝突升級的消息傳出，交易者迅速進入避險模式，大量槓桿交易者押注進一步下跌，累積龐大空頭部位。然而，跌勢並未持續。隨著現貨買盤介入、價格趨穩，這些過度擁擠的空頭部位被迫回補，觸發經典的<strong>軋空</strong>。</p><p>結果是：</p><ul><li>市場槓桿降至多週低點。</li><li>資金費率由負轉正。</li><li>價格收復關鍵區間水平。</li><li>未平倉合約顯著下降，表明過度槓桿已被清除。</li></ul><p>當價格上漲伴隨著未平倉合約下降，通常反映的是空頭回補，而非投機狂熱。</p><h3><strong>技術結構：收復65,600美元，潛在底部浮現</strong></h3><p>技術面上，比特幣已重新站上<strong>65,600美元</strong>區間水平，並收復7日移動均線（短期動能指標）。儘管並非所有技術信號均已完全重置，但整體型態顯示的是潛在的<strong>底部結構</strong>，而非下跌趨勢的延續。</p><p>此一發展與「地緣政治風險可能已被提前定價」的觀點相符。在軍事打擊發生前，預測市場已將3月底前衝突升級的機率定價在高位。當預期中的事件最終發生時，市場有時會以「利空出盡」而非持續恐慌來反應。</p><h3><strong>Coinbase溢價：美國現貨買盤回歸</strong></h3><p>另一個值得關注的發展是Coinbase比特幣溢價的再次出現。歷史經驗顯示，當比特幣在Coinbase上的交易價格略高於其他交易所時，意味著來自美國的現貨買盤較強。這在復甦階段常被視為<strong>看漲信號</strong>。</p><p>與此同時，資金費率相較於過去反彈階段仍處於低位，表明市場尚未因多頭槓桿而過熱。</p><h3><strong>短期展望：波動仍高，但結構趨於健康</strong></h3><p>短期內，波動率可能仍將維持在高位。若緊張局勢進一步升級，再次測試更低支撐水平的可能性無法排除。然而，整體結構暗示比特幣可能正在築底，而非準備新一輪崩跌。</p><p>交易者關注的關鍵問題：</p><ul><li>槓桿會迅速重建還是維持受控？</li><li>比特幣能否守住剛收復的區間支撐？</li><li>全球市場在週一開盤後如何反應？</li></ul><p>若支撐得以守住且槓桿維持溫和，則逐步向上挑戰的可能性將增加。</p><h3><strong>長期視角：累積區間還是熊市起點？</strong></h3><p>從更長期的視角來看，當前水平可能代表<strong>累積區域</strong>，而非新一輪熊市的開端。空頭的清洗、資金費率的重置以及未平倉合約的下降，已清除大量投機過剩。歷史經驗顯示，比特幣常在類似的槓桿重置後開啟可持續的復甦。</p><h3><strong>結論：壓力測試後的市場韌性信號</strong></h3><p>這次中東衝突引發的市場動盪，最終成為一次壓力測試，而非崩潰的開端。比特幣在劇烈波動後展現的韌性——軋空、溢價重現、槓桿重置——為短期市場提供了一個意外的建設性信號。當然，加密貨幣對宏觀標題的敏感性不會消失，但至少在本輪測試中，市場結構展現了比預期更強的消化能</p>

The Middle East conflict triggered a "double whammy" for Bitcoin, killing both bulls and bears.

中東戰火引爆比特幣「多空雙殺」！急跌後V型反轉 軋空行情上演 6.5萬美元失而復得

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</div></div><p>Bitcoin is currently stuck in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, with conflicting signals permeating the market. On one hand, the Fear and Greed Index hit a historical low of 5 on February 12, indicating extreme pessimism. On the other hand, on-chain data paints a more balanced picture: despite a nearly 46% drop from the $125,000 historical high in Q4 2025, the Bitcoin network is undergoing a silent "reset."</p><h3><strong>Bull-Bear Tug-of-War: Fear of Old Coins Moving vs. Institutional Long-Term Accumulation</strong></h3><p>Current market sentiment is being pulled by two opposing forces:</p><ul><li><strong>Bearish Concerns:</strong> There are fears that around 3.5 to 4 million long-dormant Bitcoins (known as "sleeping supply") could suddenly move due to advancements in quantum computing, increasing supply and pushing prices down.</li><li><strong>Bullish Reality:</strong> Since 2020, institutions and ETFs have cumulatively bought about 2.5 to 3 million Bitcoins. In this cycle alone, nearly 13 to 14 million Bitcoins have changed hands, setting a record for historical trading volume without a system collapse. This suggests that price weakness is more about repricing in uncertainty rather than systemic collapse.</li></ul><h3><strong>Network Resilience: Difficulty Adjustments Protect Miners, Developers Prepare for Quantum Resistance</strong></h3><p>The underlying mechanisms of the Bitcoin network are playing a stabilizing role. Following the price drop, mining difficulty automatically adjusts downwards, allowing remaining miners to maintain profitability and ensuring network security.</p><p>At the same time, the developer community is actively researching quantum-resistant solutions, with newer wallet types offering higher security. This indicates that fears of old coins being mass-hacked may be exaggerated.</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-4-1024x665.png" alt=""></figure><h3><strong>Demand Warning Signs: Declining Active Addresses and ETF Fund Outflows</strong></h3><p>However, short-term demand does show warning signs. The number of active addresses has continued to decline since peaking on February 6, indicating cooling real user activity. Retail investor interest is waning, and trading volumes are slowing.</p><p>Despite a small inflow of $133 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs on February 13, the overall trend has exhibited funds flowing out for several consecutive weeks. This means that prices are currently more affected by risk-reduction measures from large institutions rather than strong spot demand support.</p><h3><strong>Market Divergence: Is $60,000 the Bottom or a Midway Station?</strong></h3><p>Opinions on the current price range of $60,000 to $70,000 are sharply divided:</p><ul><li><strong>Optimists:</strong> View this range as a solid foundation for future rebounds.</li><li><strong>Cautious Analysts:</strong> Willy Woo warns that rising volatility may indicate a strengthening downward trend and that the true bottom may not yet be reached.</li></ul><p>At the same time, signs of capital diversion are emerging. Barry Silbert, founder of Digital Currency Group, predicts that as blockchain tracing technology undermines Bitcoin's anonymity, about 5% to 10% of Bitcoin funds could shift toward privacy-focused competing coins.</p><h3><strong>Conclusion: Bitcoin Faces Deep Questions About Its Role</strong></h3><p>In summary, Bitcoin is not just undergoing a price correction; it is facing profound questions regarding its role in an evolving market. It must address multiple challenges from macro sentiment, technological changes (quantum computing), and capital diversion (privacy coins).</p><p>If the $60,000 barrier can be effectively defended, there’s still a possibility for recovery within 2026. However, if volatility continues to rise, the market may face further declines. For investors, the current contradictory picture serves as a reminder that understanding on-chain structures may be more important than predicting short-term prices.</p>

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</div></div><p>比特币6万至7万美元区间陷入胶着，市场弥漫着矛盾的信号。一方面，恐惧与贪婪指数在2月12日一度触及历史低点5，极度悲观情绪笼罩；另一方面，链上数据却描绘出一个更为平衡的故事：尽管价格较2025年第四季的125,000美元历史高点下跌近46%，比特币网络本身正经历一场无声的「重置」。</p><h3><strong>多空拉锯：旧币移动恐惧 vs. 机构长期吸纳</strong></h3><p>当前市场情绪被两股力量拉扯：</p><p><strong>看空担忧</strong>：市场担心约350至400万枚长期休眠的比特币（俗称「沉睡供应」）若因量子运算等技术进展而突然移动，将增加供应、压低价格。</p><p><strong>看多现实</strong>：自2020年以来，机构与ETF已累计买入约250至300万枚比特币。仅本轮周期内，就有近1,300至1,400万枚比特币换手，创下历史最大规模的转手纪录，而系统并未崩溃。这表明价格疲软可能更多是<strong>在不确定性中重新定价</strong>，而非系统性崩盘。</p><h3>网络韧性：难度调整保护矿工、开发者备战抗量子</h3><p>比特币网络的底层机制正在发挥稳定功能。价格下跌后，挖矿难度自动下调，使成本较高的矿工退出后，剩余矿工能维持盈利，确保网络安全稳定。</p><p>同时，开发者社群已着手研究抗量子解决方案，较新的钱包类型安全性更高。这意味着对旧币被大规模破解的恐惧，可能过于夸大。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-4-1024x665.png" alt=""></figure><h3>需求警讯：活跃地址数下滑、ETF资金外流</h3><p>然而，短期需求面确实浮现警讯。活跃地址数自2月6日达到高峰后持续下滑，表明真实的用户活动正在降温。零售投资者兴趣减弱，交易量亦趋缓。</p><p>现货比特币ETF尽管在2月13日录得1.33亿美元的小额流入，但整体趋势已连续数周呈现资金外流。这使得价格目前更多受制于大型机构的风险减持行为，而非强劲的现货需求支撑。</p><h3>市场分歧：比特币6万美元是底部还是中继站？</h3><p>对于当前60,000至70,000美元的价格区间，市场看法严重分歧：</p><p>乐观派：视此区间为未来反弹的坚实基础。</p><p>谨慎派：分析师Willy Woo警告，波动率上升可能预示下跌趋势正在强化，真正的底部或许尚未到来。</p><p>与此同时，资本开始出现分流迹象。 Digital Currency Group创办人Barry Silbert预测，随着区块链追踪技术削弱比特币的匿名性，约5%至10%的比特币资金可能转向注重隐私的竞争币。</p><h3>结论：比特币正面临角色定位的深层提问</h3><p>总结来看，比特币目前面临的不仅是一次价格修正，更是对其在不断变化的市场中角色定位的深层提问。它必须同时应对来自宏观情绪、技术演进（量子计算）以及资本分流（隐私币）的多重挑战。</p><p>若60,000美元关卡能有效守住，2026年内仍有复苏可能；但若波动率持续攀升，市场恐将迎来进一步下跌。对投资者而言，当前的矛盾图像提醒：理解链上结构，或许比预测短期价格更为重要。</p>

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</div></div><p>比特幣6萬至7萬美元區間陷入膠著，市場瀰漫著矛盾的信號。一方面，恐懼與貪婪指數在2月12日一度觸及歷史低點<strong>5</strong>，極度悲觀情緒籠罩；另一方面，鏈上數據卻描繪出一個更為<a href="https://x.com/AshCrypto/status/2024209975565078643">平衡的故事</a>：儘管價格較2025年第四季的125,000美元歷史高點下跌近46%，比特幣網絡本身正經歷一場無聲的「重置」。</p><h3><strong>多空拉鋸：舊幣移動恐懼 vs. 機構長期吸納</strong></h3><p>當前市場情緒被兩股力量拉扯：</p><ul><li><strong>看空擔憂</strong>：市場擔心約350至400萬枚長期休眠的比特幣（俗稱「沉睡供應」）若因量子運算等技術進展而突然移動，將增加供應、壓低價格。</li><li><strong>看多現實</strong>：自2020年以來，機構與ETF已累計買入約250至300萬枚比特幣。僅本輪週期內，就有近1,300至1,400萬枚比特幣換手，創下歷史最大規模的轉手紀錄，而系統並未崩潰。這表明價格疲軟可能更多是<strong>在不確定性中重新定價</strong>，而非系統性崩盤。</li></ul><h3><strong>網絡韌性：難度調整保護礦工、開發者備戰抗量子</strong></h3><p>比特幣網絡的底層機制正在發揮穩定功能。價格下跌後，<a href="https://cftime.io/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-2/"><strong>挖礦難度</strong></a><strong>自動下調</strong>，使成本較高的礦工退出後，剩餘礦工能維持盈利，確保網絡安全穩定。</p><p>同時，開發者社群已著手研究抗量子解決方案，較新的錢包類型安全性更高。這意味著對舊幣被大規模破解的恐懼，可能過於誇大。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-4-1024x665.png" alt=""></figure><h3><strong>需求警訊：活躍地址數下滑、ETF資金外流</strong></h3><p>然而，短期需求面確實浮現警訊。<strong>活躍地址數</strong>自2月6日達到高峰後持續下滑，表明真實的用戶活動正在降溫。零售投資者興趣減弱，交易量亦趨緩。</p><p>現貨比特幣ETF儘管在2月13日錄得1.33億美元的小額流入，但整體趨勢已連續數週呈現資金外流。這使得價格目前更多受制於大型機構的風險減持行為，而非強勁的現貨需求支撐。</p><h3><strong>市場分歧：比特幣6萬美元是底部還是中繼站？</strong></h3><p>對於當前60,000至70,000美元的價格區間，市場看法嚴重分歧：</p><ul><li><strong>樂觀派</strong>：視此區間為未來反彈的堅實基礎。</li><li><strong>謹慎派</strong>：分析師Willy Woo警告，<strong>波動率上升可能預示下跌趨勢正在強化</strong>，真正的底部或許尚未到來。</li></ul><p>與此同時，資本開始出現分流跡象。Digital Currency Group創辦人<a href="https://x.com/coinbureau/status/2021958723007332368?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet">Barry Silbert預測</a>，隨著區塊鏈追蹤技術削弱比特幣的匿名性，約5%至10%的比特幣資金可能轉向注重隱私的競爭幣。</p><h3><strong>結論：比特幣正面臨角色定位的深層提問</strong></h3><p>總結來看，比特幣目前面臨的不僅是一次價格修正，更是對其在不斷變化的市場中<strong>角色定位的深層提問</strong>。它必須同時應對來自宏觀情緒、技術演進（量子計算）以及資本分流（隱私幣）的多重挑戰。</p><p>若60,000美元關卡能有效守住，2026年內仍有復甦可能；但若波動率持續攀升，市場恐將迎來進一步下跌。對投資者而言，當前的矛盾圖像提醒：<strong>理解鏈上結構，或許比預測短期價格更為重要</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

The battle to defend Bitcoin's $60,000 price tag! Are the 4 million "dormant coins" the real threat?

比特币6万美元保卫战！ 400万枚「沉睡币」才是真正威胁？

比特幣6萬美元保衛戰！400萬枚「沉睡幣」才是真正威脅？

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</div></div><p>Traditional financial giant Goldman Sachs has recently significantly increased its cryptocurrency asset holdings, with a total valuation of $2.36 billion. Although this accounts for only 0.33% of its total investment portfolio, Goldman Sachs' cryptocurrency holdings clearly show that mainstream financial institutions are cautiously yet steadily incorporating digital assets into their long-term strategic allocations, reflecting a maturing structural confidence in this asset class.</p><h3><strong>Holding Strategy: Prudent Allocation and Diversification</strong></h3><p>Goldman Sachs' cryptocurrency investment strategy demonstrates a typical institutional approach:</p><ul><li><strong>Significant Scale but Manageable Proportion:</strong> While the $2.36 billion holding amount is substantial, it represents a small portion of its overall asset allocation, indicating a cautious balance between exploring potential returns and managing volatility risks.</li><li><strong>Portfolio Diversification:</strong> Although the specific composition is not publicly disclosed, it is known that Goldman Sachs has spread its exposure across various digital assets rather than concentrating on a single cryptocurrency, which helps mitigate risks associated with specific projects.</li><li><strong>Evolution from Services to Direct Investment:</strong> Goldman Sachs initially entered the market by offering Bitcoin futures and options trading services to clients and gradually shifted toward direct investment. This path aligns with the evolution of the regulatory environment and increasing institutional acceptance of digital assets.</li></ul><h3><strong>Background Analysis: Regulation, Infrastructure, and Liquidity Facilitate the Shift</strong></h3><p>Goldman Sachs' strategic shift is a microcosm of a broader trend toward institutional adoption. While traditional financial institutions were originally cautious regarding cryptocurrencies, the increasing clarity of regulations, improvements in institutional-grade infrastructure, and enhanced market liquidity have led mainstream institutions to more seriously evaluate the role of digital assets in their portfolios.</p><p>Goldman Sachs' choice to significantly increase its holdings at this time indicates a growing internal consensus that digital assets will play a continual role in the future financial system, with long-term prospects potentially more optimistic than in the past.</p><h3><strong>Market Impact: Symbolic Significance Over Capital Scale</strong></h3><p>The market impact of Goldman Sachs' increased holdings is more a symbolic signal rather than a reflection of the capital scale itself. As one of Wall Street's most influential institutions, its publicly disclosed holding trends may create a demonstration effect, encouraging other still-cautious institutional investors to follow suit.</p><p>This move is likely to:</p><ul><li><strong>Boost Market Sentiment:</strong> Reinforce the perception of cryptocurrencies as legitimate asset classes.</li><li><strong>Stimulate Trading Volumes:</strong> Potentially drive trading activity for mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as other mature assets like Ripple (XRP).</li><li><strong>Generate More Institutional-Grade Products:</strong> Promote the development of custody, asset management, and derivatives services, further integrating the crypto space with traditional finance.</li></ul><h3><strong>Long-Term Insights: Institutionalization Process Is Irreversible</strong></h3><p>Goldman Sachs' prudent approach provides a blueprint for other institutional investors: risk assessment, diversification, and a long-term perspective are crucial when entering the cryptocurrency market. Although their holding growth positively impacts market sentiment, investors should pay closer attention to the long-term trend it represents—the institutionalization, professionalization, and compliance processes within the crypto market are now irreversible, fundamentally reshaping the market's liquidity structure, volatility characteristics, and pricing logic.</p>

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</div></div><p>最近，传统金融巨头高盛（Goldman Sachs）大幅增加其加密货币资产持仓，当前总估值已达到23.6亿美元。尽管这仅占其总投资组合的0.33%，但这一举措明确显示，主流金融机构正以谨慎但坚定的步伐，将加密资产纳入其长期战略配置，反映出对这一资产类别的结构性信心正在成熟。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>持仓策略：谨慎配置、多元分散</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛的加密货币投资策略展现出典型的机构风格：</p><ul><li><strong>规模显著但占比可控</strong>：虽然23.6亿美元的持仓金额庞大，但在其整体资产配置中仅占很小部分，体现了在探索潜在收益与管理波动风险之间的审慎平衡。</li><li><strong>资产组合多元化</strong>：尽管具体构成未公开，但已知高盛将其曝光分散于多种数字资产中，而非集中于单一币种，此举有助于降低特定项目风险。</li><li><strong>从服务到直投的演进</strong>：早期，高盛通过为客户提供比特币期货与期权交易服务进入市场，随后逐渐转向直接投资，这一路径与监管环境的演进及机构对加密资产的接受度提升同步。</li><li>&nbsp;</li></ul><h3>背景解读：监管、基础设施与流动性促成转向</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛策略的转变，是更广泛的机构采用趋势的缩影。早期传统金融机构对加密货币多持观望态度，但随着监管清晰度提高、机构级基础设施日臻完善、以及市场流动性增强，主流机构开始更认真地评估加密资产在投资组合中的角色。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛此时选择显著增加持仓，表明其内部已形成一种共识：数字资产将在未来金融体系中扮演持续性角色，且其长期前景可能比过去更为乐观。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>市场影响：象征意义大于资金规模</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛此次增持的市场影响，更多在于其象征性信号，而非其资金规模本身。作为华尔街最具影响力的机构之一，其公开的持仓动向可能产生示范效应，鼓励其他仍在观望的机构投资者跟进。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此举有望：</p><ul><li><strong>提振市场情绪</strong>：强化加密资产作为合法资产类别的认知。</li><li><strong>刺激交易量</strong>：可能带动比特币、以太坊等主流币种的交易活动，以及瑞波币（XRP）等其他成熟资产的交易。</li><li><strong>催生更多机构级产品</strong>：推动托管、资产管理及衍生品等服务的发展，进一步促进加密领域与传统金融的融合。</li><li>&nbsp;</li></ul><h3>长期启示：机构化进程不可逆转</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛的谨慎步伐为其他机构投资者提供了一个蓝图：在涉足加密市场时，风险评估、多元分散与长期视野至关重要。尽管其持仓增长对市场情绪有积极推动，但投资者更应关注其背后所代表的长期趋势——加密市场的机构化、专业化与合规化进程已不可逆转，这将从根本上重塑市场的流动性结构、波动特性与定价逻辑。</p>

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</div></div><p>傳統金融巨頭<a href="https://cftime.io/goldman-sachs-increased-its-holdings-bitcoin-etf/">高盛</a>（Goldman Sachs）近期大幅增加其加密貨幣資產持倉，總估值已達<strong>23.6億美元</strong>。儘管這僅佔其總投資組合的0.33%，但此高盛加密持倉明確顯示，主流金融機構正以謹慎但堅定的步伐，將加密資產納入其長期戰略配置，反映出對該資產類別的結構性信心正在成熟。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>持倉策略：謹慎配置、多元分散</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛的加密貨幣投資策略展現典型的機構風格：</p><ul><li><strong>規模顯著但佔比可控</strong>：23.6億美元的持倉雖金額龐大，但在其整體資產配置中僅佔很小部分，體現了在探索潛在收益與管理波動風險之間的審慎平衡。</li><li><strong>資產組合多元化</strong>：雖然具體構成未公開，但已知高盛將其曝光分散於多種數字資產中，而非集中於單一幣種，此舉有助於降低特定項目風險。</li><li><strong>從服務到直投的演進</strong>：高盛早年先通過為客戶提供比特幣期貨與期權交易服務進入市場，其後逐漸轉向直接投資，這一路徑與監管環境的演進及機構對加密資產的接受度提升同步。</li></ul><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>背景解讀：監管、基礎設施與流動性促成轉向</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛策略的轉變，是更廣泛的機構採用趨勢的縮影。早期傳統金融機構對加密貨幣多持觀望態度，但隨著<strong>監管清晰度提高、機構級基礎設施日臻完善、以及市場流動性增強</strong>，主流機構開始更認真地評估加密資產在投資組合中的角色。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛此時選擇顯著增加持倉，表明其內部已形成一種共識：數字資產將在未來金融體系中扮演持續性角色，且其長期前景可能比過去更為樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>市場影響：象徵意義大於資金規模</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛此次增持的市場影響，更多在於其<strong>象徵性信號</strong>，而非其資金規模本身。作為華爾街最具影響力的機構之一，其公開的持倉動向可能產生示範效應，鼓勵其他仍在觀望的機構投資者跟進。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此舉有望：</p><ul><li><strong>提振市場情緒</strong>：強化加密資產作為合法資產類別的認知。</li><li><strong>刺激交易量</strong>：可能帶動比特幣、以太坊等主流幣，乃至如瑞波幣（XRP）等其他成熟資產的交易活動。</li><li><strong>催生更多機構級產品</strong>：推動託管、資產管理及衍生品等服務的發展，進一步促進加密領域與傳統金融的融合。</li></ul><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>長期啟示：機構化進程不可逆轉</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛的謹慎步伐為其他機構投資者提供了一個藍圖：在涉足加密市場時，<strong>風險評估、多元分散與長期視野</strong>至關重要。儘管其持倉增長對市場情緒有積極推動，但投資者更應關注其背後所代表的長期趨勢——加密市場的機構化、專業化與合規化進程已不可逆轉，這將從根本上重塑市場的流動性結構、波動特性與定價邏輯。</p>

Goldman Sachs' cryptocurrency holdings surge to 2.36B

高盛加密持仓暴增至23.6亿美元 用真金白银押注数位资产的未来

高盛加密持倉暴增至23.6億美元 用真金白銀押注數位資產的未來

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</div></div><p>The famous personal finance book author Robert Kiyosaki, known for "Rich Dad Poor Dad," recently sparked widespread controversy with his comments on the social media platform X. He revealed that he has not purchased gold or Bitcoin for several years and only recently bought silver. This statement contradicts his long-standing public advocacy for a "buy continuously" strategy, prompting followers to question the credibility of his claims and whether they are misleading.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>Key Post from Rich Dad: Disclosing Purchase Timeline Far Earlier Than Recent Suggestions</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image.png" alt=""></figure><p><br>According to Kiyosaki's post from February 6, the key information includes:</p><ul><li><strong>Bitcoin:</strong> His last purchase was at a price of $6,000, approximately five years ago (estimated around 2021).</li><li><strong>Gold:</strong> The last purchase price was $300, which was over twenty years ago, prior to the 2008 financial crisis.</li><li><strong>Silver:</strong> This is the only asset he has recently bought, with the last purchase price at $60 (price as of December 2025).</li></ul><p>This statement quickly drew attention on social media, resulting in a "community note" added to the post, stating that on January 22, 2026, Kiyosaki publicly mentioned he was still buying Bitcoin (then priced around $90,000), silver ($96), and gold ($4,900). His remarks showed a fundamental contradiction within just two weeks.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-1-1024x482.png" alt=""></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>The Gap Between Long-Term Advocacy and Actual Behavior</strong></h3><p><br>Kiyosaki has consistently encouraged followers in public forums and on social media to ignore price fluctuations and continue buying gold, silver, and Bitcoin. During the market surge from 2025 to early 2026, he frequently posted updates indicating he was "buying." For instance, when Bitcoin approached $120,000 in July 2025, he still made similar remarks.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>This recent "revelation" has left many followers confused and reignited questions about his motives. Over the years, Kiyosaki has faced numerous criticisms as a "fraud" or "speculator," and this incident has resurfaced such accusations.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Market Background: Recent Weak Performance of Investment Portfolio</strong></h3><p><br>At the time of Kiyosaki’s controversial comments, his favored asset portfolio was experiencing significant declines:</p><ul><li>Bitcoin had fallen from its January peak and was around $64,756 at the time of writing, erasing all gains since 2024 and dropping below its 2021 peak.</li><li>Ethereum (an asset Kiyosaki has mentioned less frequently but acknowledges holding) dropped to about $1,870.</li><li>Gold and silver fell back to approximately $4,860 and $74, respectively. Although both have risen in 2026 so far, they have significantly dropped in the short term from their peaks.</li><li>&nbsp;</li></ul><h3><strong>Motivation Questions: Is There an Intent to Influence the Market?</strong></h3><p><br>Some market observers suspect that Kiyosaki's statements, which contradict his long-standing advocacy, may have ulterior motives. His actions resemble those of certain public figures who attempt to attract retail investors to drive up asset prices for their own benefit before selling at a high point. While such motives are difficult to prove, the timing of his statements, coinciding with poor performance of his investment portfolio, raises suspicions.</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>Conclusion: The Responsibility of Public Figures</strong></h3><p><br>This incident highlights the significant gap that may exist between influential financial public figures’ public statements and their actual behaviors. For investors at large, it is essential to base any investment advice on independent judgment and transparent information, rather than blindly following a single individual's claims. Kiyosaki's social media post has placed him at the center of a credibility controversy, and how he responds in the future will continue to be scrutinized by the market and public opinion.</p>

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</div></div><p>知名财商书籍《富爸爸穷爸爸》作者罗伯特‧清崎（Robert Kiyosaki）近日在社群平台X上发布的言论，引发了广泛争议。他富爸爸自爆，自己已多年未购买黄金与比特币，仅近期买入白银，此说法与其过去多年公开倡导「持续买进」的策略明显矛盾，导致追随者质疑其言论可信度是否涉及误导。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>富爸爸自爆关键贴文：自曝最后购入时间点远早于近期建议</h3><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image.png" alt=""></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根据清崎在2月6日发布的贴文，其关键资讯包括：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>比特币：最后一次购买时价格为6,000美元，约为五年前（推估2021年左右）。</p><p>黄金：最后购买时价格为300美元，此价格出现在2008年金融海啸前，距今已超过二十年。</p><p>白银：是唯一近期有购入的资产，最近一次买入价为60美元（2025年12月价格）。</p><p>这番言论迅速引发社群关注，该贴文随后被加上「社群注释」，指出清崎本人就在2026年1月22日，还曾公开表示自己仍在买进比特币（当时价格约9万美元）、白银（96美元）与黄金（4,900美元）。其言论在短短两周内出现根本性矛盾。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-1-1024x482.png" alt=""></figure><p><strong>富爸爸言论与金价图。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>长期倡导与实际行为的落差</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>清崎长期以来在公开场合与社群媒体上，持续鼓励追随者无视价格波动，坚持买入黄金、白银与比特币。在2025年至2026年初的市场上涨期间，他多次发布「正在买进」的相关讯息。例如在2025年7月比特币接近12万美元时，他仍发表过类似言论。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此次「自曝」使许多跟随者感到困惑，并重新引发对其动机的质疑。过去多年，清崎已多次被外界批评为「诈骗者」或「投机客」，此次事件让这类指控再次浮上台面。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>市场背景：投资组合近期表现疲弱</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>清崎的争议言论发表之际，其推崇的资产组合正经历显著回调：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>比特币从1月高点下跌，撰稿时报约64,756美元，已跌破2021年高点，抹去2024年以来所有涨幅。</p><p>以太坊（清崎较少提及但承认持有的资产）下跌至约1,870美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>黄金与白银分别回落至约4,860美元与74美元，虽然2026年迄今仍为上涨，但短期自高点回落幅度显著。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>动机疑云：是否意图影响市场？</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>部分市场观察者怀疑，清崎此时发表与长期倡导相悖的言论，动机可能不单纯。其模式与某些公众人物试图吸引散户推高资产价格，以便自己在高位出售的行为有相似之处。虽然此动机难以证实，但在其投资组合表现疲软的时间点发表此类言论，时机确实引人疑窦。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>结论：公众人物的言论责任</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此次事件凸显了具有影响力的财经公众人物，其公开言论与个人实际行为可能存在巨大落差。对于广大投资者而言，在听取任何投资建议时，仍需以独立判断与透明资讯为基础，不宜盲目跟从单一名人的说法。清崎的社群媒体贴文已将自己置于诚信争议的风暴中心，其后续如何回应将持续受到市场与舆论的检视。</p>

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</div></div><p>知名財商書籍《富爸爸窮爸爸》作者<a href="https://cftime.io/robert-kiyosaki-market-crash-is-an-opportunity-get-rich/">羅伯特‧清崎</a>（Robert Kiyosaki）近日在社群平台X上發布的言論，引發了廣泛爭議。他富爸爸自爆，自己已多年未購買黃金與比特幣，僅近期買入白銀，此說法與其過去多年公開倡導「持續買進」的策略明顯矛盾，導致追隨者質疑其言論可信度是否涉及誤導。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>富爸爸自爆<strong>關鍵貼文：自曝最後購入時間點遠早於近期建議</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image.png" alt=""></figure><p><a href="https://x.com/theRealKiyosaki/status/2019591674767216906?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2019591674767216906%7Ctwgr%5Ea8794bc0f462ba09462fd527d98e4147f49b0dff%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffinbold.com%2Fdid-robert-kiyosaki-just-admit-he-lied-about-buying-gold-silver-and-bitcoin%2F">根據清崎在2月6日發布的貼文</a>，其關鍵資訊包括：</p><ul><li><strong>比特幣</strong>：最後一次購買時價格為6,000美元，約為五年前（推估2021年左右）。</li><li><strong>黃金</strong>：最後購買時價格為300美元，此價格出現在2008年金融海嘯前，距今已超過二十年。</li><li><strong>白銀</strong>：是唯一近期有購入的資產，最近一次買入價為60美元（2025年12月價格）。</li></ul><p>這番言論迅速引發社群關注，該貼文隨後被加上「社群註釋」，指出清崎本人<strong>就在2026年1月22日</strong>，還曾公開表示自己仍在買進比特幣（當時價格約9萬美元）、白銀（96美元）與黃金（4,900美元）。其言論在短短兩週內出現根本性矛盾。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-1-1024x482.png" alt=""></figure><p><strong>富爸爸言論與金價圖。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>長期倡導與實際行為的落差</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>清崎長期以來在公開場合與社群媒體上，持續鼓勵追隨者無視價格波動，堅持買入黃金、白銀與比特幣。在2025年至2026年初的市場上漲期間，他多次發布「正在買進」的相關訊息。例如在2025年7月比特幣接近12萬美元時，他仍發表過類似言論。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此次「自曝」使許多跟隨者感到困惑，並重新引發對其動機的質疑。過去多年，清崎已多次被外界批評為「詐騙者」或「投機客」，此次事件讓這類指控再次浮上檯面。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>市場背景：投資組合近期表現疲弱</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>清崎的爭議言論發表之際，其推崇的資產組合正經歷顯著回調：</p><ul><li><strong>比特幣</strong>從1月高點下跌，撰稿時報約64,756美元，已跌破2021年高點，抹去2024年以來所有漲幅。</li><li><strong>以太坊</strong>（清崎較少提及但承認持有的資產）下跌至約1,870美元。</li><li><strong>黃金</strong>與<strong>白銀</strong>分別回落至約4,860美元與74美元，雖然2026年迄今仍為上漲，但短期自高點回落幅度顯著。</li></ul><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>動機疑雲：是否意圖影響市場？</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>部分市場觀察者懷疑，清崎此時發表與長期倡導相悖的言論，動機可能不單純。其模式與某些公眾人物試圖吸引散戶推高資產價格，以便自己在高位出售的行為有相似之處。雖然此動機難以證實，但在其投資組合表現疲軟的時間點發表此類言論，時機確實引人疑竇。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>結論：公眾人物的言論責任</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此次事件凸顯了具有影響力的財經公眾人物，其公開言論與個人實際行為可能存在巨大落差。對於廣大投資者而言，在聽取任何投資建議時，仍需以獨立判斷與透明資訊為基礎，不宜盲目跟從單一名人的說法。清崎的社群媒體貼文已將自己置於誠信爭議的風暴中心，其後續如何回應將持續受到市場與輿論的檢視。</p>

Rich Dad reveals he hasn't bought Bitcoin or gold in years

富爸爸自爆多年未买比特币、黄金 与长期呼吁大相径庭 社群怒轰误导

富爸爸自爆多年未買比特幣、黃金 與長期呼籲大相逕庭 社群怒轟誤導

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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The Russian development agency Roscongress has included the collapse of the cryptocurrency market as one of the "black swan events" that could impact the global economy in its report titled "Key Events of 2026: Geoeconomics, Forecasts, and Major Risks." The report indicates that while the current probability is low, if it were to happen, it would place serious pressure on other markets, and regulatory agencies and monetary authorities might struggle to respond to the impact of cryptocurrencies increasingly integrating into the financial system.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Risk Assessment: Cryptocurrency Collapse Comparable to Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis</strong></h3><p><br>The authors of the report believe that the collapse of the digital assets market would produce negative effects similar to those of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Other potential black swan events listed include: China's military action against Taiwan, a large-scale "tanker war" erupting at sea, and the unexpected failure of stimulus measures in Germany combined with a political deadlock in France causing capital outflows.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Current Market Contradiction: Long-Term Optimism but Warning of Systemic Risks</strong></h3><p><br>The report presents a contradictory view of the cryptocurrency market: on one hand, it points out that "predictions for Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, indicate that bullish trends will continue." It expects that institutional investors’ purchases of Bitcoin will not slow down, and monetary easing may positively impact cryptocurrency prices. On the other hand, it warns that if a collapse occurs, the increasing integration of Bitcoin into the financial system may make it difficult for regulators and monetary authorities to manage the pressure.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Geoeconomic Interconnection: U.S. Links Stablecoins to Treasury Bonds via GENIUS Act</strong></h3><p><br>Roscongress cites a study from last November indicating that the U.S. is attempting to address debt issues through the GENIUS Act, which requires issuers of U.S. dollar stablecoins to include U.S. government bonds in their reserve assets. The report analyzes, "One of the goals of the presidential team is to attract a new class of investors into the treasury market—investors who traditionally avoid government bonds to escape government control but are eager to invest in cryptocurrency instruments."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>Other Black Swan Scenarios: Taiwan Straits Conflict, European Capital Outflows, Tanker War</strong><br>The report elaborates on other potential black swan events:</p><ul><li><strong>Taiwan Straits Conflict:</strong> While China is unlikely to attack Taiwan this year, any movement in that direction would result in significant geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts.</li><li><strong>European Risks:</strong> The failure of Germany's stimulus measures combined with France's political deadlock could trigger capital outflows from the EU, raising European risk premiums and leading to serious concerns about the sustainability of public finances at current debt levels.</li><li><strong>Tanker War:</strong> An increase in incidents involving attacks on ships and a large-scale "tanker war" would severely disrupt supply chains and impact global trade.</li><li>&nbsp;</li></ul><h3><strong>Overall Forecast: Global Economic Volatility May Decrease in 2026, but Growth Rates May Hit New Lows Since the Financial Crisis</strong></h3><p><br>Overall, Russian experts predict that the global economy will experience less turbulence in 2026 compared to the previous year, but they acknowledge that growth rates are likely to reach one of the lowest levels since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Report Intent: Reflecting the Systemic Importance of Cryptocurrency Assets</strong></h3><p><br>Including the collapse of the cryptocurrency market in a national economic risk report indicates that Russian official think tanks recognize the systemic financial influence of cryptocurrency assets. This serves not only as a warning about market volatility but also as a strategic assessment of new chain reaction risks that may arise from the deep integration of cryptocurrency assets with the traditional financial system.</p>

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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>俄罗斯重要发展机构Roscongress基金会&nbsp;在其发布的《2026年关键事件：地缘经济、预测与主要风险》报告中，将加密货币市场崩跌列为可能冲击全球经济的「黑天鹅事件」之一。报告指出，尽管目前发生机率不高，但若发生，将对其他市场造成严重压力，且监管机构与货币当局可能难以应对加密资产日益融入金融体系所带来的冲击。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>风险评估：加密货币崩跌影响堪比欧元区主权债务危机</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>报告作者认为，数位资产市场的崩溃将产生与欧元区主权债务危机&nbsp;相似的负面影响。其他被列为潜在黑天鹅的事件还包括：中国武力攻打台湾、大规模「油轮战争」在海上爆发，以及德国刺激措施意外失败结合法国政治僵局引发的资本外流。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>当前市场矛盾：看好长期趋势，但警示系统性风险</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>报告呈现对加密市场的矛盾观点：一方面指出「对最大加密货币比特币的预测显示看涨趋势将持续」，机构投资者购买比特币的趋势预计不会放缓，且降息可能对加密资产价格产生正面影响；另一方面却警告，一旦崩跌发生，由于比特币日益融入金融体系，监管与货币当局可能无法应对其带来的压力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>地缘经济连动：美国透过《天才法案》将稳定币与国债挂钩</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Roscongress基金会引用其去年11月的研究指出，美国正试图透过《天才法案（GENIUS Act）》解决债务问题，该法案要求美元稳定币发行者必须将美国政府债券&nbsp;纳入储备资产。报告分析：「美国总统团队的目标之一是吸引新一类投资者进入国债市场。这类投资者传统上为避免政府控制而回避投资国债，但却乐于投资加密货币工具。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>其他黑天鹅情境：台海冲突、欧洲资本外流、油轮战争</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>报告详细说明了其他黑天鹅候选事件：</p><p>台海冲突：中国今年虽不太可能攻击台湾，但若朝此方向行动，将导致地缘政治与地缘经济格局重大转变。</p><p>欧洲风险：德国刺激措施失败与法国政治僵局结合，可能触发欧盟资本外流，推高欧洲风险溢价，当前债务水平已引发对公共财政可持续性的严重担忧。</p><p>油轮战争：船只遭袭击事件激增与大规模「油轮战争」爆发，将严重破坏供应链并冲击全球贸易。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>总体预测：2026年全球经济波动减缓 但增长率可能创金融危机后新低</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>整体而言，俄罗斯专家预测2026年全球经济将比前一年经历较少动荡，但也承认增长率很可能成为2008年金融危机以来最低水平之一。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>报告意图：反映加密资产已具系统重要性</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>将加密市场崩跌列入国家级经济风险报告，显示俄罗斯官方智库已承认加密资产具备系统性金融影响力。这不仅是对市场波动的警示，更是对加密资产与传统金融体系深度融合后，可能引发新型连锁风险的战略性评估。</p>

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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>俄羅斯重要發展機構<strong>Roscongress基金會</strong>&nbsp;在其發布的《2026年關鍵事件：地緣經濟、預測與主要風險》報告中，將加密貨幣市場崩跌列為可能衝擊全球經濟的「<a href="https://cftime.io/%e5%b9%a3%e5%ae%89%e9%97%9c%e8%81%af%e7%a9%a9%e5%ae%9a%e5%b9%a3tusd%e8%84%ab%e9%89%a4/"><strong>黑天鵝</strong></a><strong>事件</strong>」之一。報告指出，儘管目前發生機率不高，但若發生，將對其他市場造成嚴重壓力，且監管機構與貨幣當局可能難以應對加密資產日益融入金融體系所帶來的衝擊。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>風險評估：加密貨幣崩跌影響堪比歐元區主權債務危機</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>報告作者認為，數位資產市場的崩潰將產生與<strong>歐元區主權債務危機</strong>&nbsp;相似的負面影響。其他被列為潛在黑天鵝的事件還包括：<strong>中國武力攻打台灣</strong>、大規模「<strong>油輪戰爭</strong>」在海上爆發，以及德國刺激措施意外失敗結合法國政治僵局引發的資本外流。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>當前市場矛盾：看好長期趨勢，但警示系統性風險</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>報告呈現對加密市場的矛盾觀點：一方面指出「對最大加密貨幣比特幣的預測顯示<strong>看漲趨勢將持續</strong>」，機構投資者購買比特幣的趨勢預計不會放緩，且降息可能對加密資產價格產生正面影響；<a href="https://roscongress.org/news/eksperty-fonda-roskongress-sprognozirovali-vozmozhnye-kljuchevye-tendentsii-2026-goda/?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rbc.ru%2F">另一方面卻警告</a>，一旦崩跌發生，由於比特幣日益融入金融體系，監管與貨幣當局<strong>可能無法應對其帶來的壓力</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>地緣經濟連動：美國透過《天才法案》將穩定幣與國債掛鉤</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Roscongress基金會引用其去年11月的研究指出，美國正試圖透過《<a href="https://cftime.io/chain-reaction-after-the-genius-act/"><strong>天才法案（GENIUS Act</strong></a><strong>）</strong>》解決債務問題，該法案要求美元穩定幣發行者必須將<strong>美國政府債券</strong>&nbsp;納入儲備資產。報告分析：「美國總統團隊的目標之一是吸引<strong>新一類投資者進入國債市場</strong>。這類投資者傳統上為避免政府控制而回避投資國債，但卻樂於投資加密貨幣工具。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>其他黑天鵝情境：台海衝突、歐洲資本外流、油輪戰爭</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>報告詳細說明了其他黑天鵝候選事件：</p><ul><li><strong>台海衝突</strong>：中國今年雖不太可能攻擊台灣，但若朝此方向行動，將導致地緣政治與地緣經濟格局重大轉變。</li><li><strong>歐洲風險</strong>：德國刺激措施失敗與法國政治僵局結合，可能觸發<strong>歐盟資本外流</strong>，推高歐洲風險溢價，當前債務水平已引發對公共財政可持續性的嚴重擔憂。</li><li><strong>油輪戰爭</strong>：船隻遭襲擊事件激增與大規模「油輪戰爭」爆發，將嚴重破壞供應鏈並衝擊全球貿易。</li></ul><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>總體預測：2026年全球經濟波動減緩 但增長率可能創金融危機後新低</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>整體而言，俄羅斯專家預測2026年全球經濟將比前一年經歷<strong>較少動盪</strong>，但也承認增長率很可能成為<strong>2008年金融危機以來最低水平之一</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>報告意圖：反映加密資產已具系統重要性</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>將加密市場崩跌列入國家級經濟風險報告，顯示俄羅斯官方智庫已承認加密資產具備<strong>系統性金融影響力</strong>。這不僅是對市場波動的警示，更是對加密資產與傳統金融體系深度融合後，可能引發新型連鎖風險的戰略性評估。</p>

A Russian official think tank has labeled the cryptocurrency crash a "global black swan

俄官方智库 将加密货币崩跌列为「全球黑天鹅」！警告：冲击堪比欧债危机

俄官方智庫 將加密貨幣崩跌列為「全球黑天鵝」！警告：衝擊堪比歐債危機

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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>One year into President Donald Trump's term, the "cryptocurrency president" aura that was once highly anticipated by his supporters has dimmed. Market data shows that over the past year, Bitcoin has dropped about 15%, Ethereum has fallen approximately 8%, and most altcoins have experienced severe declines of 70% to 90%. This comprehensive downturn has forced the industry to reassess the significant gap between political expectations and market realities.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>One Year into Trump's Presidency: Market Performance from Euphoria to a Severe Bear Market</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>According to CoinGecko data, since January 20, 2025:</p><ul><li>Bitcoin: After peaking at a historic high of $126,000 in October 2025, it is now around $91,000, reflecting an annual decline of approximately 15%.</li><li>Ethereum: It has fallen from a near $5,000 high in August 2025 to about $3,100 now, with an annual drop of around 8%.</li><li>Major altcoins: XRP has dropped nearly 40% (currently slightly below $2), and Solana has halved by over 50% (currently around $129).</li><li>&nbsp;</li></ul><p>Analyst Ted Pillows noted that the declines have intensified as market capitalization shrinks: other large tokens have experienced declines of 50%-60%, medium tokens have dropped 70%-80%, and small and meme coins have fallen by about 90%.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Political Expectations Fall Flat: Geopolitics Overrule Regulatory Optimism</strong></h3><p>Despite initial market optimism regarding clearer regulations following Trump's re-election in November 2024—where institutions like Bybit even predicted a "transformative period"—geopolitical and trade policies have dominated market sentiment over the past year.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The Trump administration has repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs on China and the European Union, triggering market volatility and stifling Bitcoin's upward momentum. For instance, after confirming new tariffs on several European countries, the total market liquidation reached approximately $871 million in a single day.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>Slow Regulatory Progress: Personnel Appointments Fail to Reverse the Downtrend</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Although Trump appointed pro-cryptocurrency officials, such as SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, the impact of macro events far outweighed expected regulatory clarity. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse admitted in a December 2024 interview that while the crypto community embraced Trump, market performance shows that political support is just one among many factors.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>Market Reflection: The Limitations of Political Narratives</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>This week’s performance highlights a harsh reality of the crypto market: while political narratives can ignite short-term sentiment, they cannot withstand structural pressures from macroeconomics and geopolitics. In the context of a strong dollar, trade conflicts, and global growth slowdowns, crypto assets—as high-risk assets—have become the first area for capital withdrawal.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Future Outlook: Depoliticized Value Reevaluation</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>As the "cryptocurrency president" narrative fades, market attention may return to the fundamentals, including capital flows into Bitcoin ETFs, institutional adoption rates, on-chain activity, and broader global liquidity conditions. This deep correction may also prompt investors to distinguish the causal relationship between "policy-friendly" and "price increase," driving more rational asset pricing.</p>

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</div></div><p>美国总统特朗普就职一年，曾被支持者寄予厚望的「加密货币总统」光环已然黯淡。市场数据显示，过去一年比特币下跌约15%，以太坊跌约8%，而多数山寨币更是惨遭70%至90%&nbsp;的深度回调。这场全面下跌，迫使行业重新审视政治期待与市场现实之间的巨大落差。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>美国总统特朗普就职一年 市场表现：从狂欢到深陷熊市</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根据CoinGecko数据，自2025年1月20日以来：</p><p>比特币：自2025年10月历史高点126,000美元回落，现报约91,000美元，年跌幅约15%。</p><p>以太坊：自2025年8月近5,000美元高点下跌，现报约3,100美元，年跌幅约8%。</p><p>大型山寨币：XRP跌近40%（现报略低于2美元），Solana腰斩逾50%（现报约129美元）。</p><p>分析师Ted Pillows指出，跌幅随着市值缩小而加剧：其他大型代币跌50%-60%，中型代币跌70%-80%，小型与迷因币更跌约90%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>政治期待落空：地缘政治压倒监管乐观</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>尽管特朗普在2024年11月当选后，市场曾因对监管明朗化的期待而乐观，Bybit等机构当时甚至预测将迎来「变革性时期」。然而过去一年，地缘政治与贸易政策&nbsp;主导了市场情绪。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>特朗普政府多次威胁对中国与欧盟加征关税，引发市场波动并阻断比特币上涨动能。例如，近日其确认对多个欧洲国家加征新关税后，市场单日清算总额即达约8.71亿美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>监管进展缓慢：人事任命未能扭转颓势</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>虽然特朗普任命了亲加密货币的官员，如美国证券交易委员会（SEC）主席Paul Atkins，但宏观事件的冲击远超过预期的监管清晰度。瑞波执行长Brad Garlinghouse在2024年12月受访时坦言，加密社区确实曾拥抱特朗普，但市场表现显示政治支持仅是众多因素之一。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>市场反思：政治叙事的局限性</strong></h3><p>此周年表现凸显加密市场的一个残酷现实：政治叙事虽能点燃短期情绪，却无法抵御宏观经济与地缘政治的结构性压力。在强美元、贸易冲突与全球增长放缓的背景下，加密资产作为高风险属性类别，率先成为资金撤出的领域。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>未来展望：去政治化的价值重估</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>随着「加密总统」叙事褪色，市场注意力可能重新回归基本面：包括比特币ETF的资金流、机构采用进度、链上活动，以及更广泛的全球流动性条件。这场深度回调也可能促使投资者区分「政策友善」与「价格上涨」之间的因果关系，推动更理性的资产定价。</p>

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</div></div><p>美國總統<a href="https://cftime.io/the-white-house-denies-withdrawing-encryption-bill/">特朗普</a>就職一年，曾被支持者寄予厚望的「加密貨幣總統」光環已然黯淡。市場數據顯示，過去一年比特幣下跌約<strong>15%</strong>，以太坊跌約<strong>8%</strong>，而多數山寨幣更是慘遭<strong>70%至90%</strong>&nbsp;的深度回調。這場全面下跌，迫使行業重新審視政治期待與市場現實之間的巨大落差。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>美國總統特朗普就職一年 市場表現：從狂歡到深陷熊市</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根據CoinGecko數據，自2025年1月20日以來：</p><ul><li><strong>比特幣</strong>：自2025年10月歷史高點<strong>126,000美元</strong>回落，現報約<strong>91,000美元</strong>，年跌幅約15%。</li><li><strong>以太坊</strong>：自2025年8月近<strong>5,000美元</strong>高點下跌，現報約<strong>3,100美元</strong>，年跌幅約8%。</li><li><strong>大型山寨幣</strong>：XRP跌近<strong>40%</strong>（現報略低於2美元），Solana腰斬<strong>逾50%</strong>（現報約129美元）。</li></ul><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a href="https://x.com/TedPillows/status/2013535721118724210?s=20">分析師Ted Pillows指出</a>，跌幅隨著市值縮小而加劇：其他大型代幣跌<strong>50%-60%</strong>，中型代幣跌<strong>70%-80%</strong>，小型與迷因幣更跌約<strong>90%</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>政治期待落空：地緣政治壓倒監管樂觀</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>儘管特朗普在2024年11月當選後，市場曾因對監管明朗化的期待而樂觀，Bybit等機構當時甚至預測將迎來「變革性時期」。然而過去一年，<strong>地緣政治與貿易政策</strong>&nbsp;主導了市場情緒。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>特朗普政府多次威脅對中國與歐盟加徵關稅，引發市場波動並阻斷比特幣上漲動能。例如，近日其確認對多個歐洲國家加徵新關稅後，市場單日清算總額即達約<strong>8.71億美元</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>監管進展緩慢：人事任命未能扭轉頹勢</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>雖然特朗普任命了親加密貨幣的官員，如美國證券交易委員會（SEC）主席<strong>Paul Atkins</strong>，但宏觀事件的衝擊遠超過預期的監管清晰度。瑞波執行長Brad Garlinghouse在2024年12月受訪時坦言，加密社區確實曾擁抱特朗普，但市場表現顯示政治支持僅是眾多因素之一。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>市場反思：政治敘事的局限性</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此週年表現凸顯加密市場的一個殘酷現實：<strong>政治敘事雖能點燃短期情緒，卻無法抵禦宏觀經濟與地緣政治的結構性壓力</strong>。在強美元、貿易衝突與全球增長放緩的背景下，加密資產作為高風險屬性類別，率先成為資金撤出的領域。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>未來展望：去政治化的價值重估</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>隨著「加密總統」敘事褪色，市場注意力可能重新回歸基本面：包括比特幣ETF的資金流、機構採用進度、鏈上活動，以及更廣泛的全球流動性條件。這場深度回調也可能促使投資者區分「政策友善」與「價格上漲」之間的因果關係，推動更理性的資產定價。</p>

The truth about the crypto market one year after Trump's inauguration

从狂欢到崩溃：特朗普就职一年 加密市场真相 大型币腰斩 迷因币跌90%

從狂歡到崩潰：特朗普就職一年 加密市場真相 大型幣腰斬 迷因幣跌90%

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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev recently presented an optimistic view on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on employment. In a TED talk, he stated that AI is driving a "work singularity," accelerating the creation of new jobs and industries rather than merely leading to job losses. He believes that AI will restructure future work patterns, empowering individuals with capabilities previously held only by large companies, claiming, "AI will spawn solo unicorn companies."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Core Argument: AI Will Foster Solo Unicorn Companies, Empowering Individuals and Lowering Barriers to Entrepreneurship</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Tenev noted, "We are on a rapidly accelerating curve of job creation, which I refer to as the ‘work singularity,’ representing not only new jobs but an entirely new family of jobs in every imaginable field—a ‘Cambrian explosion.’" He likened this to the internet, which gave people global reach, while AI provides them with a world-class team.</p><p>As AI tools take on tasks across engineering, marketing, research, operations, and customer support, he believes people can operate with far less institutional support, thereby lowering the barriers to starting businesses and new types of jobs. He predicted, "There will be a surge of new entrepreneurial activity, leading to micro-enterprises, individual agencies, and solo unicorns—by the way, I don’t think we’re far from this."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Research Support: AI-Using Companies Grow Faster and New Positions Continue to Emerge</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Research supports some of Tenev's points. A study from MIT Sloan School of Management in October 2025 indicated that companies adopting AI tend to grow faster and create more jobs. Meanwhile, a World Economic Forum analysis from January 2025 estimated that as AI applications expand, nearly 170 million new roles will be created.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Tenev described this work singularity as part of a long historical pattern, from hunting and agriculture to blacksmithing and factory labor, where entire job categories have disappeared due to productivity gains brought on by automation. He stated, "Job disruption is a fundamental characteristic of human evolution."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>The Current Transformation's Uniqueness: The Unprecedented Speed of AI Disruption</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>He pointed out that what makes the current transformation feel different is the unprecedented speed at which AI is disrupting the job market. AI systems can now exceed narrowly defined tasks and operate across multiple domains—something early technologies like personal computers and smartphones could not do.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>However, this acceleration has heightened unease within the workforce, as traditional career paths become harder to predict. According to a Pew Research Center survey from February 2025, over half of U.S. workers expressed concerns about AI's impact on the workplace, with about one-third believing that AI will reduce rather than increase their long-term job opportunities.</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>Historical Insights: Predictions of Technological Disruption Often Miss the Mark as Human Society Continues to Adapt</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Nevertheless, Tenev warned against assuming that disruption equates to a long-term shortage of jobs. He cited past technological panics that failed to materialize, such as the 1990s warnings about programming jobs being outsourced, and fears of chess's decline after IBM's Deep Blue defeated Garry Kasparov in 1997. He remarked, "Thus, even in seemingly obvious situations, our predictions about the future can sometimes be completely off the mark."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Despite the uncertainties surrounding AI's impact on employment, Tenev stated that human society has always adapted to technological changes. He concluded, "Even in the darkest and most uncertain times, humanity excels at creating meaning and purpose for itself. I am very confident that young people in their 20s in the future, perhaps collaborating with AI, will continue to build new things that both excite and scare us."</p>

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</div></div><p>Robinhood行政总裁&nbsp;Vlad Tenev&nbsp;近日提出一个对人工智能就业影响的乐观视角。他在一场TED演讲中表示，AI正驱动一场「工作奇点」，加速新工作和新产业的创造，而非仅仅导致职位流失。他认为，AI将重组未来的工作模式，赋予个人以往只有大公司才具备的能力，「AI将催生单人独角兽公司」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>核心论点：AI将催生单人独角兽公司 赋能个人 降低创业门槛</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Tenev&nbsp;指出：「我们正处于一个工作创造快速加速的曲线上，我称之为『工作奇点』，这是一场不仅是新工作，更是每个可想像领域中全新工作家族的『寒武纪大爆发』。」他比喻道：「互联网赋予了人们全球触达能力，而AI则给了他们一支世界级的团队。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>随着AI工具在工程、营销、研究、运营和客户支持等领域承担任务，他认为人们可以在远少于机构支持的情况下运作，从而降低创办公司和新类型工作的门槛。他预测：「将会涌现一波新的创业活动，出现微企业、个人机构和单人独角兽——顺带一提，我认为我们离此不远了。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>研究支持：AI采用企业增长更快 新职位持续涌现</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>研究支持了&nbsp;Tenev&nbsp;论点的部分内容。麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院2025年10月的一项研究指出，采用AI的企业往往增长更快并增加职位。同时，世界经济论坛2025年1月的一份分析估计，随着AI应用扩展，将产生近1.7亿个新角色。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Tenev&nbsp;表示，这种工作奇点是长远历史模式的一部分，从狩猎、农业到铁匠和工厂劳动，整个工作类别都随着自动化带来的生产力提升而消失。他认为：「工作颠覆是人类进化的基本特质。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>当前转型的特殊性：AI颠覆速度空前</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>他指出，使当前转型感觉不同的是AI颠覆就业市场的速度。 AI系统现在能够超越狭义定义的任务，在多个领域运作，这是个人电脑和智能手机等早期技术无法做到的。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，这种加速加剧了劳动力中的不安情绪，因为传统职业道路变得更难预测。根据皮尤研究中心2025年2月的一项调查，超过一半的美国工人表示他们担心AI对工作场所的影响，约三分之一的人认为AI将减少而非增加他们的长期工作机会。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>历史借鉴：技术颠覆预测常失准 人类社会持续适应</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>尽管如此，Tenev&nbsp;警告不应假定颠覆就意味着长期的工作短缺。他列举了此前未能成真的技术恐慌，包括1990年代关于编程工作将被外包的警告，以及IBM深蓝在1997年击败加里·卡斯帕洛夫后对国际象棋衰退的担忧。他说：「因此，即使在看似明显的情况下，我们对未来的预测有时也会完全偏离。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>尽管围绕AI对就业影响存在不确定性，但&nbsp;Tenev&nbsp;表示，人类社会始终能适应技术变革。他总结道：「即使在最黑暗和最不确定的时期，人类也始终擅长为自身提供意义和目标。我非常有信心，未来的20岁年轻人，或许与AI协作，将继续建造出我们既害怕又兴奋的新事物。」</p>

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</div></div><p>Robinhood行政總裁<a href="https://cftime.io/robinhood-acquires-bitstamp/">&nbsp;<strong>Vlad Tenev</strong>&nbsp;</a>近日提出一個對人工智能就業影響的樂觀視角。他在一場TED演講中表示，AI正驅動一場「<strong>工作奇點</strong>」，加速新工作和新產業的創造，而非僅僅導致職位流失。他認為，AI將重組未來的工作模式，賦予個人以往只有大公司才具備的能力，「AI將催生單人獨角獸公司」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>核心論點：AI將催生單人獨角獸公司</strong> <strong>賦能個人 降低創業門檻</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>Tenev</strong>&nbsp;指出：「我們正處於一個工作創造快速加速的曲線上，我稱之為『工作奇點』，這是一場不僅是新工作，更是每個可想像領域中全新工作家族的『寒武紀大爆發』。」他比喻道：「互聯網賦予了人們全球觸達能力，而AI則給了他們一支世界級的團隊。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>隨著AI工具在工程、營銷、研究、運營和客戶支持等領域承擔任務，他認為人們可以在遠少於機構支持的情況下運作，從而<strong>降低創辦公司和新類型工作的門檻</strong>。他預測：「將會湧現一波新的創業活動，出現微企業、個人機構和單人獨角獸——順帶一提，我認為我們離此不遠了。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>研究支持：AI採用企業增長更快 新職位持續湧現</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>研究支持了&nbsp;<strong>Tenev</strong>&nbsp;論點的部分內容。麻省理工學院斯隆管理學院2025年10月的<a href="https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/01/future-of-jobs-report-2025-jobs-of-the-future-and-the-skills-you-need-to-get-them/">一項研究指出</a>，採用AI的企業往往增長更快並增加職位。同時，世界經濟論壇2025年1月的一份分析估計，隨著AI應用擴展，將產生近<strong>1.7億個新角色</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>Tenev</strong>&nbsp;表示，這種工作奇點是長遠歷史模式的一部分，從狩獵、農業到鐵匠和工廠勞動，整個工作類別都隨著自動化帶來的生產力提升而消失。他認為：「工作顛覆是人類進化的基本特質。」</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>當前轉型的特殊性：AI顛覆速度空前</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>他指出，使當前轉型感覺不同的是<strong>AI顛覆就業市場的速度</strong>。AI系統現在能夠超越狹義定義的任務，在多個領域運作，這是個人電腦和智能手機等早期技術無法做到的。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，這種加速加劇了勞動力中的不安情緒，因為傳統職業道路變得更難預測。根據皮尤研究中心2025年2月的一項調查，超過一半的美國工人表示他們擔心AI對工作場所的影響，約三分之一的人認為AI將減少而非增加他們的長期工作機會。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>歷史借鑒：技術顛覆預測常失準 人類社會持續適應</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>儘管如此，<strong>Tenev</strong>&nbsp;警告不應假定顛覆就意味著長期的工作短缺。他列舉了此前未能成真的技術恐慌，包括1990年代關於編程工作將被外包的警告，<a href="https://quod.lib.umich.edu/j/jahc/3310410.0003.220/--digital-historiography-kasparov-vs-deep-blue?rgn=main;view=fulltext">以及IBM深藍在1997年</a>擊敗加里·卡斯帕洛夫後對國際象棋衰退的擔憂。他說：「因此，即使在看似明顯的情況下，我們對未來的預測有時也會完全偏離。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>儘管圍繞AI對就業影響存在不確定性，但&nbsp;<strong>Tenev</strong>&nbsp;表示，人類社會始終能適應技術變革。他總結道：「即使在最黑暗和最不確定的時期，人類也始終擅長為自身提供意義和目標。我非常有信心，未來的20歲年輕人，或許與AI協作，將繼續建造出我們既害怕又興奮的新事物。」</p>

Robinhood CEO makes a bold prediction: AI will give rise to single-person unicorn companies.

Robinhood CEO大胆预言：AI将催生单人独角兽公司

Robinhood CEO大膽預言：AI將催生單人獨角獸公司

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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently stated that Nvidia's self-driving software will not pose any significant competitive pressure on Tesla in the next five to six years. This comment came in response to Nvidia's demonstration of its open-source AI model family, named Alpamayo, designed for handling complex urban driving, based on camera video inputs, at the 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Nvidia's Self-Driving Software Technology Gap: Years Needed from "Partially Usable" to "Safer than Humans"</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Musk wrote on social media platform X, "It will take years for self-driving cars to go from ‘barely usable’ to being much safer than humans." He added that traditional automakers also face additional delays, as it takes time to design and integrate cameras with AI computers into production vehicles.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>While Musk holds this view, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang praised Tesla’s self-driving technology as the "most advanced autonomous driving stack in the world." He told Bloomberg, "I believe Musk's approach is the most advanced in autonomous driving and robotics today. It's a very difficult technology stack to criticize; I simply encourage them to continue doing what they're doing."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Industry Reality: Slow Deployment of Self-Driving Technology and Regulatory Scrutiny from Safety Incidents</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>However, the progress of autonomous driving technology has not diminished the challenges faced by this emerging industry. Waymo operates fully driverless robot taxis in several U.S. cities, but it voluntarily initiated a software recall last December due to vehicles failing to stop for school buses. In the same month, the company suspended its San Francisco services after a power outage caused vehicles to stall at intersections, disrupting traffic.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>During the power outage, Musk noted on X that Tesla's limited robot taxi service, equipped with safety monitors, was not affected.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Tesla's Advantage: Existing Fleet and Pure Vision System</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Tesla's advantage lies in its existing fleet and pure vision system. Its vehicles come standard with a unified camera and onboard AI hardware. Under the "Tesla Vision" initiative, the company primarily relies on cameras rather than LiDAR, and has removed radar and ultrasonic sensors from vehicles in many markets.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Musk first proposed the concept of self-driving cars in 2013, with the first version of Autopilot launched two years later. However, Tesla's self-driving ambitions have come under scrutiny, with critics questioning the safety and reliability of its Autopilot and "Full Self-Driving" features, especially following a series of high-profile accidents (some of which resulted in fatalities and triggered federal investigations) that heightened these concerns.</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>Future Outlook: Technological Competition and Safety Compliance</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The open dialogue between Nvidia and Tesla in the self-driving domain highlights industry divergences in technological approaches, deployment timelines, and safety standards. Nvidia, leveraging its powerful AI chips and open-source software ecosystem, is actively courting traditional automotive customers, while Tesla relies on its vast real-world driving data and highly integrated hardware architecture to maintain its lead. The outcome of this competition will depend not only on the speed of technological breakthroughs but also on the safety, reliability of large-scale deployments, and the acceptance of regulatory bodies and the public.</p>

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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>特斯拉行政总裁马斯克日前表示，Nvidia自驾软体在未来五到六年内不会对特斯拉构成实质竞争压力。此评论是针对Nvidia在2026年国际消费电子展上展示其名为Alpamayo的开源AI模型家族——一套专为处理复杂城市驾驶而设计、基于摄像头视频输入的自驾系统。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Nvidia自驾软体技术差距：从「部分可用」到「比人类安全」需时数年</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>马斯克在社交平台X上写道：「从自驾车『勉强能用』到它比人类安全得多，实际需要数年时间。」他补充说，传统汽车制造商还面临额外延迟，因为大规模设计并将摄像头与AI计算机整合到量产车辆中需要时间。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>尽管马斯克持此看法，Nvidia行政总裁黄仁勋却称赞特斯拉的自驾技术是「全球最先进的自动驾驶堆栈」。他告诉《彭博社》：「我认为马斯克的方法在自动驾驶和机器人领域是当今最先进的。这是一个难以挑剔的技术堆栈，我不会批评它，我只会鼓励他们继续做他们正在做的事。」</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>产业现实：自驾技术部署缓慢 安全事故引发监管关注</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，自动驾驶技术的进展并未减少这个新兴行业面临的挑战。 Waymo在美国多个城市运营完全无人驾驶的机器人计程车，但于去年12月因车辆未能为校车停车而自愿发起软体召回。同月，该公司也因停电导致车辆在十字路口熄火并阻塞交通，而暂停了旧金山的服务。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在停电期间，马斯克在X上表示，特斯拉配有安全监控员的有限机器人计程车服务未受影响。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>特斯拉的优势：现有车队与纯视觉系统</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>特斯拉的优势在于其现有车队与纯视觉系统。其车辆已标配统一的摄像头与车载AI硬体。在「特斯拉视觉」方案下，该公司主要依赖摄像头而非光达，并已在许多市场的车辆中移除了雷达与超声波感测器。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>马斯克早在2013年就提出了自驾车的构想，首个版本的Autopilot于两年后推出。然而，特斯拉的自驾雄心也受到审视，批评者对其Autopilot和「全自动驾驶」功能的安全性和可靠性提出质疑，此前一系列备受关注的撞车事故（其中一些导致死亡并引发联邦调查）加剧了这种担忧。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>未来展望：技术竞赛与安全合规并行</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Nvidia与特斯拉在自驾领域的公开对话，凸显了该行业在技术路线、部署时程与安全标准上的分歧。 Nvidia凭借其强大的AI晶片与开源软体生态，正积极争取传统车厂客户；而特斯拉则依靠其庞大的真实行驶数据与高度整合的硬体架构，试图保持领先。这场竞赛的胜负，不仅取决于技术突破的速度，更将取决于大规模部署的安全性、可靠性以及监管机构与公众的接受度。</p>

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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>特斯拉行政總裁<a href="https://cftime.io/musk-praises-bitcoin/">馬斯克</a>日前表示，<a href="https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/solutions/autonomous-vehicles/">Nvidia自駕軟體</a>在未來<strong>五到六年內</strong>不會對特斯拉構成實質競爭壓力。此評論是針對Nvidia在2026年國際消費電子展上展示其名為<a href="https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/alpamayo-autonomous-vehicle-development"><strong>Alpamayo</strong></a>的開源AI模型家族——一套專為處理複雜城市駕駛而設計、基於攝像頭視頻輸入的自駕系統。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Nvidia自駕軟體<strong>技術差距：從「部分可用」到「比人類安全」需時數年</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>馬斯克在社交平台<a href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2008418074152636903?s=20">X上寫道</a>：「從自駕車『勉強能用』到它比人類安全得多，實際需要數年時間。」他補充說，傳統汽車製造商還面臨額外延遲，因為大規模設計並將攝像頭與AI計算機整合到量產車輛中需要時間。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>儘管馬斯克持此看法，Nvidia行政總裁黃仁勳卻稱讚特斯拉的自駕技術是「全球最先進的自動駕駛堆棧」。他告訴《彭博社》：「我認為馬斯克的方法在自動駕駛和機器人領域是當今最先進的。這是一個難以挑剔的技術堆棧，我不會批評它，我只會鼓勵他們繼續做他們正在做的事。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>產業現實：自駕技術部署緩慢 安全事故引發監管關注</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，自動駕駛技術的進展並未減少這個新興行業面臨的挑戰。Waymo在美國多個城市運營完全無人駕駛的機器人計程車，但於去年12月因車輛未能為校車停車而自願發起軟體召回。同月，該公司也因停電導致車輛在十字路口熄火並阻塞交通，而暫停了舊金山的服務。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在停電期間，馬斯克在X上表示，特斯拉配有安全監控員的有限機器人計程車服務未受影響。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>特斯拉的優勢：現有車隊與純視覺系統</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>特斯拉的優勢在於其<strong>現有車隊</strong>與<strong>純視覺系統</strong>。其車輛已標配統一的攝像頭與車載AI硬體。在「特斯拉視覺」方案下，該公司主要依賴攝像頭而非光達，並已在許多市場的車輛中移除了雷達與超聲波感測器。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>馬斯克早在2013年就提出了自駕車的構想，首個版本的Autopilot於兩年後推出。然而，特斯拉的自駕雄心也受到審視，批評者對其Autopilot和「全自動駕駛」功能的安全性和可靠性提出質疑，此前一系列備受關注的撞車事故（其中一些導致死亡並引發聯邦調查）加劇了這種擔憂。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>未來展望：技術競賽與安全合規並行</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Nvidia與特斯拉在自駕領域的公開對話，凸顯了該行業在技術路線、部署時程與安全標準上的分歧。Nvidia憑藉其強大的AI晶片與開源軟體生態，正積極爭取傳統車廠客戶；而特斯拉則依靠其龐大的真實行駛數據與高度整合的硬體架構，試圖保持領先。這場競賽的勝負，不僅取決於技術突破的速度，更將取決於大規模部署的安全性、可靠性以及監管機構與公眾的接受度。</p>

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