<p>&nbsp;</p><div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/VOwILnf1lFh9dmVCzmVj.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>Last weekend, the U.S. military strikes against Iranian targets shocked global markets, and Bitcoin experienced classic volatility characterized by a "kill the longs first, then squeeze the shorts" pattern. After a massive liquidation of leveraged positions and extreme panic that turned funding rates negative, prices surprisingly rebounded, recovering key technical levels. This Middle Eastern conflict has left the market with thoughtful structural clues.</p><p>Join the CFTime TG discussion forum! Stay updated on the latest developments in the crypto market and AI news, and get free web3 entry tickets anytime!</p><h3><strong>Review of the Middle Eastern Conflict: Panic Selling → Leverage Cleaning → Short Squeeze Reversal</strong></h3><p>As news of the conflict escalation broke, traders quickly entered risk-off mode, with many leveraged traders betting on further declines, amassing large short positions. However, the downtrend did not persist. As spot buyers stepped in and prices stabilized, these overcrowded short positions were forced to cover, triggering a classic short squeeze.</p><p>The result was:</p><ul><li>Market leverage fell to multi-week lows.</li><li>Funding rates turned positive from negative.</li><li>Prices recovered key zone levels.</li><li>Open interest declined significantly, indicating that excessive leverage had been cleared.</li></ul><p>When prices rise while open interest declines, it typically reflects short covering rather than speculative euphoria.</p><h3><strong>Technical Structure: Recovery of $65,600, Potential Bottom Emerging</strong></h3><p>On the technical front, Bitcoin has regained the $65,600 range and has recovered the 7-day moving average (a short-term momentum indicator). Although not all technical signals have been fully reset, the overall pattern indicates a potential bottom structure rather than a continuation of the downtrend.</p><p>This development aligns with the view that "geopolitical risks may have already been priced in." Prior to the military strikes, the market was likely pricing in a high probability of conflict escalation before the end of March. When expected events ultimately occur, the market sometimes reacts with a "bad news priced in" response rather than continued panic.</p><h3><strong>Coinbase Premium: Return of U.S. Spot Buyers</strong></h3><p>Another noteworthy development is the reappearance of the Bitcoin premium on Coinbase. Historical experience shows that when Bitcoin trades at a slight premium on Coinbase compared to other exchanges, it indicates strong spot buying from the U.S. This is often viewed as a bullish signal during recovery phases.</p><p>At the same time, funding rates remain low compared to past rally phases, indicating that the market is not yet overheated due to long leverage.</p><h3><strong>Short-Term Outlook: Volatility Still High, Structure Becoming Healthier</strong></h3><p>In the short term, volatility may remain elevated. If tensions escalate further, the possibility of testing lower support levels cannot be ruled out. However, the overall structure suggests that Bitcoin may be forming a bottom rather than preparing for another round of collapse.</p><p>Key questions for traders include:</p><ul><li>Will leverage rebuild quickly or remain under control?</li><li>Can Bitcoin hold the recently reclaimed support level?</li><li>How will global markets react after Monday's opening?</li></ul><p>If support holds and leverage remains moderate, the likelihood of gradually challenging higher levels will increase.</p><h3><strong>Long-Term Perspective: Accumulation Range or Beginning of a Bear Market?</strong></h3><p>From a longer-term perspective, the current levels may represent an accumulation area rather than the start of a new bear market. The cleansing of shorts, the resetting of funding rates, and the decline in open interest have cleared a significant amount of excess speculation. Historical experience shows that Bitcoin often initiates sustainable recoveries after similar leverage resets.</p><h3><strong>Conclusion: Resilient Signals After the Stress Test</strong></h3><p>The market turmoil triggered by the Middle Eastern conflict ultimately served as a stress test rather than the start of a collapse. Bitcoin's resilience—demonstrated through the short squeeze, reappearance of premiums, and leverage resets—provides an unexpectedly constructive signal for the short-term market. Of course, the cryptocurrency's sensitivity to macro headlines will not disappear, but at least in this round of testing, the market structure has shown stronger absorption capacity than expected.</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/VOwILnf1lFh9dmVCzmVj.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>上周末，美国对伊朗目标的军事打击震惊全球市场，比特币在剧烈波动中上演了一场经典的“先杀多、再轧空”戏码。在经历杠杆部位大规模清算、资金费率转负的极度恐慌后，价格竟逆势反弹，收复关键技术水平。这场中东战火给市场留下了值得深思的结构线索。</p><h3><strong>中东战火事件回顾：恐慌抛售→杠杆清洗→轧空反转</strong></h3><p>当冲突升级的消息传出，交易者迅速进入避险模式，大量杠杆交易者押注进一步下跌，累积庞大空头位。然而，跌势并未持续。随着现货买盘介入、价格趋稳，这些过度拥挤的空头部位被迫回补，触发经典的轧空。</p><p>结果是：</p><ul><li>市场杠杆降至多周低点。</li><li>资金费率由负转正。</li><li>价格收复关键区间水平。</li><li>未平仓合约显著下降，表明过度杠杆已被清除。</li></ul><p>当价格上涨伴随着未平仓合约下降，通常反映的是空头回补，而非投机狂热。</p><h3><strong>技术结构：收复65,600美元，潜在底部浮现</strong></h3><p>技术面上，比特币已重新站上65,600美元区间水平，并收复7日移动均线（短期动能指标）。尽管并非所有技术信号均已完全重置，但整体形态显现的是潜在的底部结构，而非下跌趋势的延续。</p><p>此一发展与“地缘政治风险可能已被提前定价”的观点相符。在军事打击发生前，预测市场已将3月底前冲突升级的概率定价在高位。当预期中的事件最终发生时，市场有时会以“利空出尽”而非持续恐慌来反应。</p><h3><strong>Coinbase溢价：美国现货买盘回归</strong></h3><p>另一个值得关注的发展是Coinbase比特币溢价的再次出现。历史经验显示，当比特币在Coinbase上的交易价格略高于其他交易所时，意味着来自美国的现货买盘较强。这在复苏阶段常被视为看涨信号。</p><p>与此同时，资金费率相比于过去反弹阶段仍处于低位，表明市场尚未因多头杠杆而过热。</p><h3><strong>短期展望：波动仍高，但结构趋于健康</strong></h3><p>短期内，波动率可能仍会维持在高位。若紧张局势进一步升级，再次测试更低支撑水平的可能性无法排除。然而，整体结构暗示比特币可能正在筑底，而非准备新一轮崩跌。</p><p>交易者关注的关键问题：</p><ul><li>杠杆会迅速重建还是维持受控？</li><li>比特币能否守住刚收复的区间支撑？</li><li>全球市场在周一开盘后如何反应？</li></ul><p>若支撑得以守住且杠杆维持温和，则逐步向上挑战的可能性将增加。</p><h3><strong>长期视角：累积区间还是熊市起点？</strong></h3><p>从更长期的视角来看，当前水平可能代表累积区域，而非新一轮熊市的开端。空头的清洗、资金费率的重置以及未平仓合约的下降，已清除大量投机过剩。历史经验显示，比特币常在类似的杠杆重置后开启可持续的复苏。</p><h3><strong>结论：压力测试后的市场韧性信号</strong></h3><p>这次中东冲突引发的市场动荡，最终成为一次压力测试，而非崩溃的开端。比特币在剧烈波动后展现的韧性——轧空、溢价重现、杠杆重置——为短期市场提供了一个意外的建设性信号。当然，加密货币对宏观标题的敏感性不会消失，但至少在本轮测试中，市场结构展现了比预期更强的消化能力。</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/VOwILnf1lFh9dmVCzmVj.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>上週末，美國對<a href="https://cftime.io/the-iranian-currency/">伊朗</a>目標的軍事打擊震撼全球市場，比特幣在劇烈波動中上演了一場經典的「先殺多、再軋空」戲碼。在經歷槓桿部位大規模清算、資金費率轉負的極度恐慌後，價格竟逆勢反彈，收復關鍵技術水平。這場中東戰火壓力測試，為市場留下了值得深思的結構線索。</p><h3>中東戰火<strong>事件回顧：恐慌拋售→槓桿清洗→軋空反轉</strong></h3><p>當衝突升級的消息傳出，交易者迅速進入避險模式，大量槓桿交易者押注進一步下跌，累積龐大空頭部位。然而，跌勢並未持續。隨著現貨買盤介入、價格趨穩，這些過度擁擠的空頭部位被迫回補，觸發經典的<strong>軋空</strong>。</p><p>結果是：</p><ul><li>市場槓桿降至多週低點。</li><li>資金費率由負轉正。</li><li>價格收復關鍵區間水平。</li><li>未平倉合約顯著下降，表明過度槓桿已被清除。</li></ul><p>當價格上漲伴隨著未平倉合約下降，通常反映的是空頭回補，而非投機狂熱。</p><h3><strong>技術結構：收復65,600美元，潛在底部浮現</strong></h3><p>技術面上，比特幣已重新站上<strong>65,600美元</strong>區間水平，並收復7日移動均線（短期動能指標）。儘管並非所有技術信號均已完全重置，但整體型態顯示的是潛在的<strong>底部結構</strong>，而非下跌趨勢的延續。</p><p>此一發展與「地緣政治風險可能已被提前定價」的觀點相符。在軍事打擊發生前，預測市場已將3月底前衝突升級的機率定價在高位。當預期中的事件最終發生時，市場有時會以「利空出盡」而非持續恐慌來反應。</p><h3><strong>Coinbase溢價：美國現貨買盤回歸</strong></h3><p>另一個值得關注的發展是Coinbase比特幣溢價的再次出現。歷史經驗顯示，當比特幣在Coinbase上的交易價格略高於其他交易所時，意味著來自美國的現貨買盤較強。這在復甦階段常被視為<strong>看漲信號</strong>。</p><p>與此同時，資金費率相較於過去反彈階段仍處於低位，表明市場尚未因多頭槓桿而過熱。</p><h3><strong>短期展望：波動仍高，但結構趨於健康</strong></h3><p>短期內，波動率可能仍將維持在高位。若緊張局勢進一步升級，再次測試更低支撐水平的可能性無法排除。然而，整體結構暗示比特幣可能正在築底，而非準備新一輪崩跌。</p><p>交易者關注的關鍵問題：</p><ul><li>槓桿會迅速重建還是維持受控？</li><li>比特幣能否守住剛收復的區間支撐？</li><li>全球市場在週一開盤後如何反應？</li></ul><p>若支撐得以守住且槓桿維持溫和，則逐步向上挑戰的可能性將增加。</p><h3><strong>長期視角：累積區間還是熊市起點？</strong></h3><p>從更長期的視角來看，當前水平可能代表<strong>累積區域</strong>，而非新一輪熊市的開端。空頭的清洗、資金費率的重置以及未平倉合約的下降，已清除大量投機過剩。歷史經驗顯示，比特幣常在類似的槓桿重置後開啟可持續的復甦。</p><h3><strong>結論：壓力測試後的市場韌性信號</strong></h3><p>這次中東衝突引發的市場動盪，最終成為一次壓力測試，而非崩潰的開端。比特幣在劇烈波動後展現的韌性——軋空、溢價重現、槓桿重置——為短期市場提供了一個意外的建設性信號。當然，加密貨幣對宏觀標題的敏感性不會消失，但至少在本輪測試中，市場結構展現了比預期更強的消化能</p>

The Middle East conflict triggered a "double whammy" for Bitcoin, killing both bulls and bears.

中東戰火引爆比特幣「多空雙殺」！急跌後V型反轉 軋空行情上演 6.5萬美元失而復得

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/XTrChG6k6x7AGfm90jcz.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>Bitcoin is currently stuck in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, with conflicting signals permeating the market. On one hand, the Fear and Greed Index hit a historical low of 5 on February 12, indicating extreme pessimism. On the other hand, on-chain data paints a more balanced picture: despite a nearly 46% drop from the $125,000 historical high in Q4 2025, the Bitcoin network is undergoing a silent "reset."</p><h3><strong>Bull-Bear Tug-of-War: Fear of Old Coins Moving vs. Institutional Long-Term Accumulation</strong></h3><p>Current market sentiment is being pulled by two opposing forces:</p><ul><li><strong>Bearish Concerns:</strong> There are fears that around 3.5 to 4 million long-dormant Bitcoins (known as "sleeping supply") could suddenly move due to advancements in quantum computing, increasing supply and pushing prices down.</li><li><strong>Bullish Reality:</strong> Since 2020, institutions and ETFs have cumulatively bought about 2.5 to 3 million Bitcoins. In this cycle alone, nearly 13 to 14 million Bitcoins have changed hands, setting a record for historical trading volume without a system collapse. This suggests that price weakness is more about repricing in uncertainty rather than systemic collapse.</li></ul><h3><strong>Network Resilience: Difficulty Adjustments Protect Miners, Developers Prepare for Quantum Resistance</strong></h3><p>The underlying mechanisms of the Bitcoin network are playing a stabilizing role. Following the price drop, mining difficulty automatically adjusts downwards, allowing remaining miners to maintain profitability and ensuring network security.</p><p>At the same time, the developer community is actively researching quantum-resistant solutions, with newer wallet types offering higher security. This indicates that fears of old coins being mass-hacked may be exaggerated.</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-4-1024x665.png" alt=""></figure><h3><strong>Demand Warning Signs: Declining Active Addresses and ETF Fund Outflows</strong></h3><p>However, short-term demand does show warning signs. The number of active addresses has continued to decline since peaking on February 6, indicating cooling real user activity. Retail investor interest is waning, and trading volumes are slowing.</p><p>Despite a small inflow of $133 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs on February 13, the overall trend has exhibited funds flowing out for several consecutive weeks. This means that prices are currently more affected by risk-reduction measures from large institutions rather than strong spot demand support.</p><h3><strong>Market Divergence: Is $60,000 the Bottom or a Midway Station?</strong></h3><p>Opinions on the current price range of $60,000 to $70,000 are sharply divided:</p><ul><li><strong>Optimists:</strong> View this range as a solid foundation for future rebounds.</li><li><strong>Cautious Analysts:</strong> Willy Woo warns that rising volatility may indicate a strengthening downward trend and that the true bottom may not yet be reached.</li></ul><p>At the same time, signs of capital diversion are emerging. Barry Silbert, founder of Digital Currency Group, predicts that as blockchain tracing technology undermines Bitcoin's anonymity, about 5% to 10% of Bitcoin funds could shift toward privacy-focused competing coins.</p><h3><strong>Conclusion: Bitcoin Faces Deep Questions About Its Role</strong></h3><p>In summary, Bitcoin is not just undergoing a price correction; it is facing profound questions regarding its role in an evolving market. It must address multiple challenges from macro sentiment, technological changes (quantum computing), and capital diversion (privacy coins).</p><p>If the $60,000 barrier can be effectively defended, there’s still a possibility for recovery within 2026. However, if volatility continues to rise, the market may face further declines. For investors, the current contradictory picture serves as a reminder that understanding on-chain structures may be more important than predicting short-term prices.</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/XTrChG6k6x7AGfm90jcz.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>比特币6万至7万美元区间陷入胶着，市场弥漫着矛盾的信号。一方面，恐惧与贪婪指数在2月12日一度触及历史低点5，极度悲观情绪笼罩；另一方面，链上数据却描绘出一个更为平衡的故事：尽管价格较2025年第四季的125,000美元历史高点下跌近46%，比特币网络本身正经历一场无声的「重置」。</p><h3><strong>多空拉锯：旧币移动恐惧 vs. 机构长期吸纳</strong></h3><p>当前市场情绪被两股力量拉扯：</p><p><strong>看空担忧</strong>：市场担心约350至400万枚长期休眠的比特币（俗称「沉睡供应」）若因量子运算等技术进展而突然移动，将增加供应、压低价格。</p><p><strong>看多现实</strong>：自2020年以来，机构与ETF已累计买入约250至300万枚比特币。仅本轮周期内，就有近1,300至1,400万枚比特币换手，创下历史最大规模的转手纪录，而系统并未崩溃。这表明价格疲软可能更多是<strong>在不确定性中重新定价</strong>，而非系统性崩盘。</p><h3>网络韧性：难度调整保护矿工、开发者备战抗量子</h3><p>比特币网络的底层机制正在发挥稳定功能。价格下跌后，挖矿难度自动下调，使成本较高的矿工退出后，剩余矿工能维持盈利，确保网络安全稳定。</p><p>同时，开发者社群已着手研究抗量子解决方案，较新的钱包类型安全性更高。这意味着对旧币被大规模破解的恐惧，可能过于夸大。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-4-1024x665.png" alt=""></figure><h3>需求警讯：活跃地址数下滑、ETF资金外流</h3><p>然而，短期需求面确实浮现警讯。活跃地址数自2月6日达到高峰后持续下滑，表明真实的用户活动正在降温。零售投资者兴趣减弱，交易量亦趋缓。</p><p>现货比特币ETF尽管在2月13日录得1.33亿美元的小额流入，但整体趋势已连续数周呈现资金外流。这使得价格目前更多受制于大型机构的风险减持行为，而非强劲的现货需求支撑。</p><h3>市场分歧：比特币6万美元是底部还是中继站？</h3><p>对于当前60,000至70,000美元的价格区间，市场看法严重分歧：</p><p>乐观派：视此区间为未来反弹的坚实基础。</p><p>谨慎派：分析师Willy Woo警告，波动率上升可能预示下跌趋势正在强化，真正的底部或许尚未到来。</p><p>与此同时，资本开始出现分流迹象。 Digital Currency Group创办人Barry Silbert预测，随着区块链追踪技术削弱比特币的匿名性，约5%至10%的比特币资金可能转向注重隐私的竞争币。</p><h3>结论：比特币正面临角色定位的深层提问</h3><p>总结来看，比特币目前面临的不仅是一次价格修正，更是对其在不断变化的市场中角色定位的深层提问。它必须同时应对来自宏观情绪、技术演进（量子计算）以及资本分流（隐私币）的多重挑战。</p><p>若60,000美元关卡能有效守住，2026年内仍有复苏可能；但若波动率持续攀升，市场恐将迎来进一步下跌。对投资者而言，当前的矛盾图像提醒：理解链上结构，或许比预测短期价格更为重要。</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/XTrChG6k6x7AGfm90jcz.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>比特幣6萬至7萬美元區間陷入膠著，市場瀰漫著矛盾的信號。一方面，恐懼與貪婪指數在2月12日一度觸及歷史低點<strong>5</strong>，極度悲觀情緒籠罩；另一方面，鏈上數據卻描繪出一個更為<a href="https://x.com/AshCrypto/status/2024209975565078643">平衡的故事</a>：儘管價格較2025年第四季的125,000美元歷史高點下跌近46%，比特幣網絡本身正經歷一場無聲的「重置」。</p><h3><strong>多空拉鋸：舊幣移動恐懼 vs. 機構長期吸納</strong></h3><p>當前市場情緒被兩股力量拉扯：</p><ul><li><strong>看空擔憂</strong>：市場擔心約350至400萬枚長期休眠的比特幣（俗稱「沉睡供應」）若因量子運算等技術進展而突然移動，將增加供應、壓低價格。</li><li><strong>看多現實</strong>：自2020年以來，機構與ETF已累計買入約250至300萬枚比特幣。僅本輪週期內，就有近1,300至1,400萬枚比特幣換手，創下歷史最大規模的轉手紀錄，而系統並未崩潰。這表明價格疲軟可能更多是<strong>在不確定性中重新定價</strong>，而非系統性崩盤。</li></ul><h3><strong>網絡韌性：難度調整保護礦工、開發者備戰抗量子</strong></h3><p>比特幣網絡的底層機制正在發揮穩定功能。價格下跌後，<a href="https://cftime.io/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-2/"><strong>挖礦難度</strong></a><strong>自動下調</strong>，使成本較高的礦工退出後，剩餘礦工能維持盈利，確保網絡安全穩定。</p><p>同時，開發者社群已著手研究抗量子解決方案，較新的錢包類型安全性更高。這意味著對舊幣被大規模破解的恐懼，可能過於誇大。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-4-1024x665.png" alt=""></figure><h3><strong>需求警訊：活躍地址數下滑、ETF資金外流</strong></h3><p>然而，短期需求面確實浮現警訊。<strong>活躍地址數</strong>自2月6日達到高峰後持續下滑，表明真實的用戶活動正在降溫。零售投資者興趣減弱，交易量亦趨緩。</p><p>現貨比特幣ETF儘管在2月13日錄得1.33億美元的小額流入，但整體趨勢已連續數週呈現資金外流。這使得價格目前更多受制於大型機構的風險減持行為，而非強勁的現貨需求支撐。</p><h3><strong>市場分歧：比特幣6萬美元是底部還是中繼站？</strong></h3><p>對於當前60,000至70,000美元的價格區間，市場看法嚴重分歧：</p><ul><li><strong>樂觀派</strong>：視此區間為未來反彈的堅實基礎。</li><li><strong>謹慎派</strong>：分析師Willy Woo警告，<strong>波動率上升可能預示下跌趨勢正在強化</strong>，真正的底部或許尚未到來。</li></ul><p>與此同時，資本開始出現分流跡象。Digital Currency Group創辦人<a href="https://x.com/coinbureau/status/2021958723007332368?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet">Barry Silbert預測</a>，隨著區塊鏈追蹤技術削弱比特幣的匿名性，約5%至10%的比特幣資金可能轉向注重隱私的競爭幣。</p><h3><strong>結論：比特幣正面臨角色定位的深層提問</strong></h3><p>總結來看，比特幣目前面臨的不僅是一次價格修正，更是對其在不斷變化的市場中<strong>角色定位的深層提問</strong>。它必須同時應對來自宏觀情緒、技術演進（量子計算）以及資本分流（隱私幣）的多重挑戰。</p><p>若60,000美元關卡能有效守住，2026年內仍有復甦可能；但若波動率持續攀升，市場恐將迎來進一步下跌。對投資者而言，當前的矛盾圖像提醒：<strong>理解鏈上結構，或許比預測短期價格更為重要</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

The battle to defend Bitcoin's $60,000 price tag! Are the 4 million "dormant coins" the real threat?

比特币6万美元保卫战！ 400万枚「沉睡币」才是真正威胁？

比特幣6萬美元保衛戰！400萬枚「沉睡幣」才是真正威脅？

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/bKtVpzt0ysaM33LjBM1J.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>The famous personal finance book author Robert Kiyosaki, known for "Rich Dad Poor Dad," recently sparked widespread controversy with his comments on the social media platform X. He revealed that he has not purchased gold or Bitcoin for several years and only recently bought silver. This statement contradicts his long-standing public advocacy for a "buy continuously" strategy, prompting followers to question the credibility of his claims and whether they are misleading.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>Key Post from Rich Dad: Disclosing Purchase Timeline Far Earlier Than Recent Suggestions</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image.png" alt=""></figure><p><br>According to Kiyosaki's post from February 6, the key information includes:</p><ul><li><strong>Bitcoin:</strong> His last purchase was at a price of $6,000, approximately five years ago (estimated around 2021).</li><li><strong>Gold:</strong> The last purchase price was $300, which was over twenty years ago, prior to the 2008 financial crisis.</li><li><strong>Silver:</strong> This is the only asset he has recently bought, with the last purchase price at $60 (price as of December 2025).</li></ul><p>This statement quickly drew attention on social media, resulting in a "community note" added to the post, stating that on January 22, 2026, Kiyosaki publicly mentioned he was still buying Bitcoin (then priced around $90,000), silver ($96), and gold ($4,900). His remarks showed a fundamental contradiction within just two weeks.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-1-1024x482.png" alt=""></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>The Gap Between Long-Term Advocacy and Actual Behavior</strong></h3><p><br>Kiyosaki has consistently encouraged followers in public forums and on social media to ignore price fluctuations and continue buying gold, silver, and Bitcoin. During the market surge from 2025 to early 2026, he frequently posted updates indicating he was "buying." For instance, when Bitcoin approached $120,000 in July 2025, he still made similar remarks.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>This recent "revelation" has left many followers confused and reignited questions about his motives. Over the years, Kiyosaki has faced numerous criticisms as a "fraud" or "speculator," and this incident has resurfaced such accusations.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Market Background: Recent Weak Performance of Investment Portfolio</strong></h3><p><br>At the time of Kiyosaki’s controversial comments, his favored asset portfolio was experiencing significant declines:</p><ul><li>Bitcoin had fallen from its January peak and was around $64,756 at the time of writing, erasing all gains since 2024 and dropping below its 2021 peak.</li><li>Ethereum (an asset Kiyosaki has mentioned less frequently but acknowledges holding) dropped to about $1,870.</li><li>Gold and silver fell back to approximately $4,860 and $74, respectively. Although both have risen in 2026 so far, they have significantly dropped in the short term from their peaks.</li><li>&nbsp;</li></ul><h3><strong>Motivation Questions: Is There an Intent to Influence the Market?</strong></h3><p><br>Some market observers suspect that Kiyosaki's statements, which contradict his long-standing advocacy, may have ulterior motives. His actions resemble those of certain public figures who attempt to attract retail investors to drive up asset prices for their own benefit before selling at a high point. While such motives are difficult to prove, the timing of his statements, coinciding with poor performance of his investment portfolio, raises suspicions.</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>Conclusion: The Responsibility of Public Figures</strong></h3><p><br>This incident highlights the significant gap that may exist between influential financial public figures’ public statements and their actual behaviors. For investors at large, it is essential to base any investment advice on independent judgment and transparent information, rather than blindly following a single individual's claims. Kiyosaki's social media post has placed him at the center of a credibility controversy, and how he responds in the future will continue to be scrutinized by the market and public opinion.</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/bKtVpzt0ysaM33LjBM1J.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>知名财商书籍《富爸爸穷爸爸》作者罗伯特‧清崎（Robert Kiyosaki）近日在社群平台X上发布的言论，引发了广泛争议。他富爸爸自爆，自己已多年未购买黄金与比特币，仅近期买入白银，此说法与其过去多年公开倡导「持续买进」的策略明显矛盾，导致追随者质疑其言论可信度是否涉及误导。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>富爸爸自爆关键贴文：自曝最后购入时间点远早于近期建议</h3><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image.png" alt=""></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根据清崎在2月6日发布的贴文，其关键资讯包括：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>比特币：最后一次购买时价格为6,000美元，约为五年前（推估2021年左右）。</p><p>黄金：最后购买时价格为300美元，此价格出现在2008年金融海啸前，距今已超过二十年。</p><p>白银：是唯一近期有购入的资产，最近一次买入价为60美元（2025年12月价格）。</p><p>这番言论迅速引发社群关注，该贴文随后被加上「社群注释」，指出清崎本人就在2026年1月22日，还曾公开表示自己仍在买进比特币（当时价格约9万美元）、白银（96美元）与黄金（4,900美元）。其言论在短短两周内出现根本性矛盾。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-1-1024x482.png" alt=""></figure><p><strong>富爸爸言论与金价图。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>长期倡导与实际行为的落差</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>清崎长期以来在公开场合与社群媒体上，持续鼓励追随者无视价格波动，坚持买入黄金、白银与比特币。在2025年至2026年初的市场上涨期间，他多次发布「正在买进」的相关讯息。例如在2025年7月比特币接近12万美元时，他仍发表过类似言论。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此次「自曝」使许多跟随者感到困惑，并重新引发对其动机的质疑。过去多年，清崎已多次被外界批评为「诈骗者」或「投机客」，此次事件让这类指控再次浮上台面。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>市场背景：投资组合近期表现疲弱</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>清崎的争议言论发表之际，其推崇的资产组合正经历显著回调：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>比特币从1月高点下跌，撰稿时报约64,756美元，已跌破2021年高点，抹去2024年以来所有涨幅。</p><p>以太坊（清崎较少提及但承认持有的资产）下跌至约1,870美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>黄金与白银分别回落至约4,860美元与74美元，虽然2026年迄今仍为上涨，但短期自高点回落幅度显著。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>动机疑云：是否意图影响市场？</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>部分市场观察者怀疑，清崎此时发表与长期倡导相悖的言论，动机可能不单纯。其模式与某些公众人物试图吸引散户推高资产价格，以便自己在高位出售的行为有相似之处。虽然此动机难以证实，但在其投资组合表现疲软的时间点发表此类言论，时机确实引人疑窦。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>结论：公众人物的言论责任</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此次事件凸显了具有影响力的财经公众人物，其公开言论与个人实际行为可能存在巨大落差。对于广大投资者而言，在听取任何投资建议时，仍需以独立判断与透明资讯为基础，不宜盲目跟从单一名人的说法。清崎的社群媒体贴文已将自己置于诚信争议的风暴中心，其后续如何回应将持续受到市场与舆论的检视。</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/bKtVpzt0ysaM33LjBM1J.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>知名財商書籍《富爸爸窮爸爸》作者<a href="https://cftime.io/robert-kiyosaki-market-crash-is-an-opportunity-get-rich/">羅伯特‧清崎</a>（Robert Kiyosaki）近日在社群平台X上發布的言論，引發了廣泛爭議。他富爸爸自爆，自己已多年未購買黃金與比特幣，僅近期買入白銀，此說法與其過去多年公開倡導「持續買進」的策略明顯矛盾，導致追隨者質疑其言論可信度是否涉及誤導。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>富爸爸自爆<strong>關鍵貼文：自曝最後購入時間點遠早於近期建議</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image.png" alt=""></figure><p><a href="https://x.com/theRealKiyosaki/status/2019591674767216906?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2019591674767216906%7Ctwgr%5Ea8794bc0f462ba09462fd527d98e4147f49b0dff%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffinbold.com%2Fdid-robert-kiyosaki-just-admit-he-lied-about-buying-gold-silver-and-bitcoin%2F">根據清崎在2月6日發布的貼文</a>，其關鍵資訊包括：</p><ul><li><strong>比特幣</strong>：最後一次購買時價格為6,000美元，約為五年前（推估2021年左右）。</li><li><strong>黃金</strong>：最後購買時價格為300美元，此價格出現在2008年金融海嘯前，距今已超過二十年。</li><li><strong>白銀</strong>：是唯一近期有購入的資產，最近一次買入價為60美元（2025年12月價格）。</li></ul><p>這番言論迅速引發社群關注，該貼文隨後被加上「社群註釋」，指出清崎本人<strong>就在2026年1月22日</strong>，還曾公開表示自己仍在買進比特幣（當時價格約9萬美元）、白銀（96美元）與黃金（4,900美元）。其言論在短短兩週內出現根本性矛盾。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/image-1-1024x482.png" alt=""></figure><p><strong>富爸爸言論與金價圖。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>長期倡導與實際行為的落差</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>清崎長期以來在公開場合與社群媒體上，持續鼓勵追隨者無視價格波動，堅持買入黃金、白銀與比特幣。在2025年至2026年初的市場上漲期間，他多次發布「正在買進」的相關訊息。例如在2025年7月比特幣接近12萬美元時，他仍發表過類似言論。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此次「自曝」使許多跟隨者感到困惑，並重新引發對其動機的質疑。過去多年，清崎已多次被外界批評為「詐騙者」或「投機客」，此次事件讓這類指控再次浮上檯面。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>市場背景：投資組合近期表現疲弱</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>清崎的爭議言論發表之際，其推崇的資產組合正經歷顯著回調：</p><ul><li><strong>比特幣</strong>從1月高點下跌，撰稿時報約64,756美元，已跌破2021年高點，抹去2024年以來所有漲幅。</li><li><strong>以太坊</strong>（清崎較少提及但承認持有的資產）下跌至約1,870美元。</li><li><strong>黃金</strong>與<strong>白銀</strong>分別回落至約4,860美元與74美元，雖然2026年迄今仍為上漲，但短期自高點回落幅度顯著。</li></ul><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>動機疑雲：是否意圖影響市場？</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>部分市場觀察者懷疑，清崎此時發表與長期倡導相悖的言論，動機可能不單純。其模式與某些公眾人物試圖吸引散戶推高資產價格，以便自己在高位出售的行為有相似之處。雖然此動機難以證實，但在其投資組合表現疲軟的時間點發表此類言論，時機確實引人疑竇。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>結論：公眾人物的言論責任</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此次事件凸顯了具有影響力的財經公眾人物，其公開言論與個人實際行為可能存在巨大落差。對於廣大投資者而言，在聽取任何投資建議時，仍需以獨立判斷與透明資訊為基礎，不宜盲目跟從單一名人的說法。清崎的社群媒體貼文已將自己置於誠信爭議的風暴中心，其後續如何回應將持續受到市場與輿論的檢視。</p>

Rich Dad reveals he hasn't bought Bitcoin or gold in years

富爸爸自爆多年未买比特币、黄金 与长期呼吁大相径庭 社群怒轰误导

富爸爸自爆多年未買比特幣、黃金 與長期呼籲大相逕庭 社群怒轟誤導

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/919gzUKp54gacdcEAfF3.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Following the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces, Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market have experienced significant gains. The market is anticipating a potential oil price shock that could have far-reaching effects on the dollar's trajectory in 2026. After Maduro's arrest, the price of Bitcoin surged nearly 5% over the past three days, surpassing $90,000. The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by approximately $100 billion as traders bet on the economic consequences of U.S. intervention in Venezuela.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Trump Promises to Oversee Transition Post-Maduro Arrest, Hinting at Cryptocurrency Surprises</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to "manage the country" until a "prudent transition" is achieved. His media company has also foreshadowed a "cryptocurrency surprise," prompting analysts to prepare for a potential $17.3 trillion oil price shock that could impact Bitcoin and the crypto market.</p><p>After the U.S. military action in Venezuela, Trump announced plans to take control of the country’s vast oil reserves and encouraged American businesses to invest billions in the Venezuelan oil industry. Analysts believe this could lead to a sharp decline in oil prices, which would be beneficial for Bitcoin.</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>Expectations of Oil Price Collapse: Potentially Below $50, Easing Inflation Pressures</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Stock fund manager Grant Cardone told the media, "U.S. oil prices should open below $50 per barrel on Monday." Analysts noted that this could lead to a decrease in both U.S. and global inflation rates, thereby providing upward momentum for Bitcoin.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Far-Reaching Impacts: Dollar Stability Under Scrutiny, Favorable Cryptocurrency Environment</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The arrest of Maduro and the subsequent U.S. intervention could have profound implications for the global economy. The potential $17.3 trillion oil price shock is expected to shake dollar stability and create a favorable environment for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The market's response—Bitcoin prices breaking above $90,000 and a roughly $100 billion increase in the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization—highlights the potential impact of these geopolitical events on the crypto market. The situation is still evolving, and traders and analysts are closely monitoring the developments.</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/919gzUKp54gacdcEAfF3.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在美国部队逮捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗后，比特币与加密货币市场出现显著上涨。市场正预期一场潜在的油价冲击，这可能对2026年的美元走势产生深远影响。马杜罗被捕后，比特币价格在过去三天内上涨近5%，突破每枚9万美元。整体加密市场市值增加约1000亿美元，交易员正针对美国干预委内瑞拉可能引发的经济后果进行押注。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>马杜罗被捕后 特朗普承诺接管过渡 预告加密惊喜</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>美国总统特朗普承诺将在「审慎过渡」实现前「管理该国」。他的媒体公司亦预告将有「加密货币惊喜」，促使分析师为一场可能冲击比特币与加密市场的17.3万亿美元油价冲击做准备。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动后，特朗普公布计划，将控制委内瑞拉庞大的石油储备，并鼓励美国企业对该国石油产业投资数十亿美元。分析师认为，这可能导致油价大幅下跌，从而对比特币有利。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>油价暴跌预期：或低于50美元 通胀压力缓解</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>股票基金经理 Grant Cardone 向媒体表示：「美国油价应在周一开盘时低于每桶50美元。」分析师指出，这可能导致美国及全球通胀率下降，从而为比特币提供上行动力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>深远影响：美元稳定性受考验 加密货币环境转趋有利</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>马杜罗被捕及随后的美国干预，可能对全球经济产生深远影响。估计规模达17.3万亿美元的潜在油价冲击，可能动摇美元稳定性，并为比特币及其他加密货币创造有利环境。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>市场的反应——比特币价格突破9万美元，整体加密市场增加约1000亿美元市值——凸显了这些地缘政治事件对加密市场的潜在影响。局势仍在持续演变，交易员与分析师正密切关注后续发展。</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/919gzUKp54gacdcEAfF3.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在美國部隊逮捕委內瑞拉總統馬杜羅後，比特幣與加密貨幣市場出現顯著上漲。市場正預期一場潛在的油價衝擊，這可能對2026年的美元走勢產生深遠影響。馬杜羅被捕後，比特幣價格在過去三天內上漲近<strong>5%</strong>，突破<strong>每枚9萬美元</strong>。整體加密市場市值增加約<strong>1000億美元</strong>，交易員正針對美國干預委內瑞拉可能引發的經濟後果進行押注。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>馬杜羅被捕後 <strong>特朗普承諾接管過渡 預告加密驚喜</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>美國總統特朗普承諾將在「審慎過渡」實現前「管理該國」。他的媒體公司亦預告將有「加密貨幣驚喜」，促使分析師為一場可能衝擊比特幣與加密市場的<strong>17.3萬億美元油價衝擊</strong>做準備。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在美國對委內瑞拉採取軍事行動後，特朗普公佈計劃，將<strong>控制委內瑞拉龐大的石油儲備</strong>，並鼓勵美國企業對該國石油產業投資數十億美元。分析師認為，這可能導致油價大幅下跌，從而對比特幣有利。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>油價暴跌預期：或低於50美元 通脹壓力緩解</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>股票基金經理 Grant Cardone 向媒體表示：「美國油價應在週一開盤時低於每桶<strong>50美元</strong>。」分析師指出，這可能導致美國及全球通脹率下降，從而為比特幣提供上行動力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>深遠影響：美元穩定性受考驗 加密貨幣環境轉趨有利</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>馬杜羅被捕及隨後的美國干預，可能對全球經濟產生深遠影響。估計規模達<strong>17.3萬億美元</strong>的潛在油價衝擊，可能動搖美元穩定性，並為比特幣及其他加密貨幣創造有利環境。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>市場的反應——比特幣價格突破<strong>9萬美元</strong>，整體加密市場增加約<strong>1000億美元</strong>市值——凸顯了這些地緣政治事件對加密市場的潛在影響。局勢仍在持續演變，交易員與分析師正密切關注後續發展。</p>

Following Maduro's arrest, Trump foreshadowed a "crypto surprise." Analysis: This could become a new engine for a Bitcoin bull market

马杜罗被捕后特朗普预告将有「加密货币惊喜」 分析：或成比特币牛市新引擎

馬杜羅被捕後特朗普預告將有「加密貨幣驚喜」 分析：或成比特幣牛市新引擎

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/AQnytKorKk6falhIITZD.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>As Bitcoin's price has dropped 30% from an all-time high of about $126,200 in October, the market faces a crucial question: Is the Bitcoin plunge in 2025 the end of a bull market, or a normal correction within the cycle?</p><h3><strong>Key Points on the Bitcoin Collapse in 2025:</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-5-1024x660.png" alt=""></figure><p><strong>Reasons for the 2022 Collapse:</strong> In May 2022, when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.5%, Bitcoin was priced at approximately $37,700. Subsequently, the collapse of the TerraUSD stablecoin and its sister coin, Luna, led to losses exceeding $40 billion in the market, shocking the entire industry. By May 12, Bitcoin had fallen to $28,900, while Ethereum dropped from $2,779 to around $1,700. A series of subsequent collapses occurred, including Celsius freezing withdrawals, Three Arrows Capital's bankruptcy, and FTX declaring bankruptcy in November. By this time, Bitcoin's price had plummeted to $15,742, and Ethereum to $880, with the total value of the crypto market losing over $1 trillion. From peak to trough, Bitcoin's decline approached 59%. This sell-off was exacerbated by deleveraging, debt defaults, and high leverage, giving rise to what many termed the "crypto winter."</p><p><strong>Reasons for the 2025 Collapse:</strong> In contrast, the price correction in 2025 primarily stemmed from external macroeconomic factors. On October 10, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on imports from China, prompting an immediate market reaction; in 24 hours, the crypto market lost nearly $400 billion, setting a record for the largest single-day loss. After reaching $126,200 on October 6, Bitcoin fell to about $110,000 by the end of the month and further declined to around $85,000 by late November. By mid-December, Bitcoin's price stabilized between $88,000 and $89,700. November's decline of 25% marked the worst month for Bitcoin since 2022. However, unlike in 2022, there were no significant collapses of major crypto projects during this period, stablecoins did not lose their peg, and major exchanges did not fail. The damages were primarily due to macroeconomic uncertainty rather than internal weaknesses, which is a key distinction between the two collapses.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Price Trends: Comparing 2022 and 2025</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>To compare these two cycles, we standardized the data at their triggering points (May 3, 2022, and October 10, 2025).</p><ul><li><strong>First Month:</strong> The price drop in both cycles was similar.</li><li><strong>Second Month:</strong> Clear divergence in price trends emerged.</li><li><strong>Third Month:</strong> The situation in 2025 indicated early stability, while 2022 remained unstable.</li></ul><p>This gap shows that the correction in 2025 was less severe and had not yet entered a full-blown sell-off phase.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-7-1024x660.png" alt=""></figure><h3><strong>Exchange Liquidity Indicators</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Exchange liquidity accurately reflects market sentiment. When the number of Bitcoins flowing into exchanges increases, it usually indicates that investors are preparing to sell; conversely, if outflows increase, it suggests potential accumulation or reduced intent to sell. In 2022, following the Terra/Luna collapse, there was a significant net inflow in May and June of about 150,000 Bitcoins. During this time, the spot trading volume on centralized exchanges fell from $1.94 trillion in May to $1.41 trillion in June and further to $1.39 trillion in July, indicating a drop in trading participation amidst a deepening bear market.</p><p>In 2025, the situation appeared more stable. November's total inflow reached about 580,000 Bitcoins, but net flows showed a negative balance, indicating that the outflow of Bitcoins from exchanges exceeded inflows, typically signaling potential stable accumulation. The reserves on exchanges dropped to 2.76 million Bitcoins, suggesting long-term holders and institutions are moving assets off exchanges.</p><h3><strong>If 2025 Recovers Like 2022, How Long Will It Take?</strong></h3><p>Bitcoin's full recovery after the 2022 collapse took 16 to 20 months, with more than a year to rebound from the bottom. If the 2025 cycle follows a similar timeline, recovery may take 12 to 18 months. Bitcoin could test the 0.62 standard level around $77,500 again before turning. However, the current market structure appears more solid, and liquidity is deeper, without a specific crypto crisis; yet multiple external factors could still influence the recovery speed.</p><h3><strong>Outlook for 2026</strong></h3><p>The outlook for 2026 remains highly uncertain. While some analysts believe there is room for rate cuts next year, recent Federal Reserve forecasts suggest there may be only one rate reduction. Policymaker opinions are increasingly divided. Any loosening of policies or liquidity support could help risk assets, although recent dynamics show that Bitcoin's response is not always a linear increase. With ETF demand stabilizing, some forecasts (including those from JPMorgan) still describe scenarios where Bitcoin reaches higher levels.</p><p>At the same time, persistent inflationary pressures, strong U.S. economic data, and geopolitical tensions may delay policy shifts or maintain tight conditions. If ETF inflows decrease or institutions become more cautious, Bitcoin's price may remain flat for some time rather than generate a new upward trend.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/AQnytKorKk6falhIITZD.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>随着比特币价格自10月的历史高点约126,200美元下跌30%，市场再次面临一个重要问题：比特币2025年暴跌是牛市的结束，还是周期中的正常修正？</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>比特币2025年暴跌主要观点：</h3><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-5-1024x660.png" alt=""></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>2022年的崩盘原因：2022年5月，当美国联邦储备局加息0.5%时，比特币当时报价约37,700美元。其后，TerraUSD稳定币及其姊妹币Luna的崩溃导致市场损失超过400亿美元，令整个行业受到震撼。到5月12日，比特币跌至28,900美元，而以太坊从2,779美元降至约1,700美元。 随后，一系列崩溃事件接踵而至，包括Celsius冻结提款、Three Arrows Capital破产，以及FTX在11月宣告倒闭。到此时，比特币的价位已跌至15,742美元，以太坊跌至880美元，整体加密市场的价值损失更是超过1万亿美元。从高点至低点，比特币的跌幅接近59%。此次抛售因去铰化、债务违约及高杠杆作用而加剧，形成了许多人所称的「加密寒冬」。<br>2025年的崩盘原因：相比之下，2025年的价格回调却主要源自于外部宏观经济因素。于2025年10月10日，美国总统特朗普宣布对中国进口征收100%关税，这一消息令市场迅速作出反应，24小时内加密市场损失近4000亿美元，创下最大单日损失的记录。 比特币在10月6日达到126,200美元后，于月底跌至约110,000美元，而到11月底则进一步下滑至约85,000美元。至12月中旬，比特币的价格在88,000至89,700美元之间稳定。 11月的跌幅为25%，是比特币自2022年以来最糟糕的一个月。然而，与2022年相比，这次没有任何重大加密项目崩溃，稳定币也未脱钩，主要交易所未出现失败，这一切的损害均来自于宏观经济的不确定性，而非内部的弱点，这是两次崩盘的关键区别。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>价格走势：2022年与2025年对比</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>为比较这两个周期，我们在其触发点（2022年5月3日及2025年10月10日）对数据进行了标准化。</p><p>第1个月：两个周期的价格下跌速度相似。<br>第2个月：价格走势出现明显分化。<br>第3个月：2025年的情况显示出早期的稳定，而2022年仍旧不稳定。</p><p>这一差距显示，2025年的回调幅度较轻，尚未进入全面抛售阶段。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-7-1024x660.png" alt=""></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>交易所流动性指标</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>交易所流动性能准确反映市场情绪。当比特币流入交易所的数量增加时，通常表示投资者准备出售；反之，若流出数量增加，则代表可能在积累或减少出售的意愿。 2022年，因Terra/Luna崩盘，5月与6月出现了大量净流入，约为150,000个比特币。与此同时，集中交易所的现货交易量由5月的1.94万亿美元降至6月的1.41兆美元，并在7月降至1.39兆美元，显示在熊市加深的背景下，参与交易的人数减少。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在2025年，情况则显得更为稳定。 11月的总流入量高达约580,000个比特币，但净流动却显示为负值，表明流出交易所的比特币数量超过流入，这通常预示着潜在的稳定积累。交易所的储备量降至276万个比特币，这表明长期持有者和机构正在将资产从交易场地中移出。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>如果2025年像2022年一样，恢复需要多久？</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>比特币在2022年的崩盘后完全恢复需要16至20个月，而从底部回升则超过一年。假如2025年的周期依然遵循这一时间表，恢复可能需要12至18个月。比特币可能会再次测试约77,500美元的0.62标准水平，然后再转向。然而，当前市场结构更加坚固，流动性也更深厚，并无出现专属的加密危机，但多个外部因素仍可能影响市场的恢复速度。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>展望2026年</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>对于2026年的展望依然存在高度不确定性。虽然一些分析师仍然认为明年有降低利率的空间，但近期的美联储预测最多只会有一次减息，政策制定者的意见分歧加剧。任何放松政策或流动性支持均可能对风险资产有所帮助，尽管近期动态显示，比特币的反应并非总是呈线性上升。随着ETF需求稳定，一些预测（包括摩根大通的看法）仍然描述了比特币达到更高水平的可能情境。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>同时，持续的通胀压力、强劲的美国经济数据以及地缘政治紧张局势可能会延迟政策的转变，或保持条件的紧张程度。如果ETF流入减少或机构变得更加谨慎，比特币的价格可能会在未来一段时间内持平，而非创造一轮新的涨势。</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/AQnytKorKk6falhIITZD.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>隨著<a href="https://cftime.io/even-the-feds-quantitative-easing/">比特幣價格</a>自10月的歷史高點約126,200美元下跌30%，市場再次面臨一個重要問題：比特幣2025年暴跌是牛市的結束，還是周期中的正常修正？</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>比特幣2025年暴跌<strong>主要觀點：</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-5-1024x660.png" alt=""></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><ol><li><strong>2022年的崩盤原因</strong>：2022年5月，當美國聯邦儲備局加息0.5%時，比特幣當時報價約37,700美元。其後，TerraUSD穩定幣及其姊妹幣Luna的崩潰導致市場損失超過400億美元，令整個行業受到震撼。到5月12日，比特幣跌至28,900美元，而以太坊從2,779美元降至約1,700美元。 隨後，一系列崩潰事件接踵而至，包括Celsius凍結提款、Three Arrows Capital破產，以及FTX在11月宣告倒閉。到此時，比特幣的價位已跌至15,742美元，以太坊跌至880美元，整體加密市場的價值損失更是超過1萬億美元。從高點至低點，比特幣的跌幅接近59%。此次拋售因去鉸化、債務違約及高槓桿作用而加劇，形成了許多人所稱的「加密寒冬」。</li><li><strong>2025年的崩盤原因</strong>：相比之下，2025年的價格回調卻主要源自於外部宏觀經濟因素。於2025年10月10日，美國總統特朗普宣布對中國進口徵收100%關稅，這一消息令市場迅速作出反應，24小時內加密市場損失近4000億美元，創下最大單日損失的記錄。 比特幣在10月6日達到126,200美元後，於月底跌至約110,000美元，而到11月底則進一步下滑至約85,000美元。至12月中旬，比特幣的價格在88,000至89,700美元之間穩定。11月的跌幅為25%，是比特幣自2022年以來最糟糕的一個月。然而，與2022年相比，這次沒有任何重大加密項目崩潰，穩定幣也未脫鉤，主要交易所未出現失敗，這一切的損害均來自於宏觀經濟的不確定性，而非內部的弱點，這是兩次崩盤的關鍵區別。</li></ol><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>價格走勢：2022年與2025年對比</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>為比較這兩個周期，我們在其觸發點（2022年5月3日及2025年10月10日）對數據進行了標準化。</p><ul><li><strong>第1個月</strong>：兩個周期的價格下跌速度相似。</li><li><strong>第2個月</strong>：價格走勢出現明顯分化。</li><li><strong>第3個月</strong>：2025年的情況顯示出早期的穩定，而2022年仍舊不穩定。</li></ul><p>這一差距顯示，2025年的回調幅度較輕，尚未進入全面拋售階段。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-7-1024x660.png" alt=""></figure><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>交易所流動性指標</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>交易所流動性能準確反映市場情緒。當比特幣流入交易所的數量增加時，通常表示投資者準備出售；反之，若流出數量增加，則代表可能在積累或減少出售的意願。2022年，因Terra/Luna崩盤，5月與6月出現了大量淨流入，約為150,000個比特幣。與此同時，集中交易所的現貨交易量由5月的1.94萬億美元降至6月的1.41兆美元，並在7月降至1.39兆美元，顯示在熊市加深的背景下，參與交易的人數減少。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在2025年，情況則顯得更為穩定。11月的總流入量高達約580,000個比特幣，但淨流動卻顯示為負值，表明流出交易所的比特幣數量超過流入，這通常預示著潛在的穩定積累。交易所的儲備量降至276萬個比特幣，這表明長期持有者和機構正在將資產從交易場地中移出。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>如果2025年像2022年一樣，恢復需要多久？</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>比特幣在2022年的崩盤後完全恢復需要16至20個月，而從底部回升則超過一年。假如2025年的周期依然遵循這一時間表，恢復可能需要12至18個月。比特幣可能會再次測試約77,500美元的0.62標準水平，然後再轉向。然而，當前市場結構更加堅固，流動性也更深厚，並無出現專屬的加密危機，但多個外部因素仍可能影響市場的恢復速度。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>展望2026年</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>對於2026年的展望依然存在高度不確定性。<a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026">雖然一些分析師仍然認為明年有降低利率的空間</a>，但近期的美聯儲預測最多只會有一次減息，政策制定者的意見分歧加劇。任何放鬆政策或流動性支持均可能對風險資產有所幫助，儘管近期動態顯示，比特幣的反應並非總是呈線性上升。隨著ETF需求穩定，一些預測（包括摩根大通的看法）仍然描述了比特幣達到更高水平的可能情境。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>同時，持續的通脹壓力、強勁的美國經濟數據以及地緣政治緊張局勢可能會延遲政策的轉變，或保持條件的緊張程度。如果ETF流入減少或機構變得更加謹慎，比特幣的價格可能會在未來一段時間內持平，而非創造一輪新的漲勢。</p>

In-depth comparative analysis: Bitcoin's 2025 crash vs. 2022 collapse

深度对比图解：比特币2025年暴跌 vs 2022年崩盘

深度對比圖解：比特幣2025年暴跌 vs 2022年崩盤

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/49whuoSjb840fwiKftME.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>Japan's interest rate hike is poised to put Bitcoin in a vulnerable position, as investors prepare for the end of three decades of ultra-low funding costs.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Forecasts suggest that the Bank of Japan will raise the benchmark interest rate to 0.75% at its policy meeting in December, marking the highest level since 1995. This anticipated policy shift has already led to an appreciation of the yen, adjusting from above 155 yen per dollar last week to about 154.56 yen.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Impact of Japan's Rate Hike on Volatile Markets</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Experts involved in policy discussions indicate that policymakers are inclined to raise rates by 25 basis points at the meeting on December 19, provided no significant shocks occur in global or domestic markets. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the board would reaffirm previous expressions of rate increases and make appropriate decisions. Market data shows that the likelihood of a hike in December is nearing 90%. Furthermore, support from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government for tightening measures indicates broader political backing for this policy.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The rising cost of capital will directly impact yen carry trades. This strategy allows hedge funds and proprietary trading desks to borrow funds cheaply in yen and invest in more volatile assets.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Bitcoin is one of the markets most affected by changes in leverage and liquidity. As borrowing costs rise, Bitcoin's price is also impacted. The strengthening yen aligns with a macro risk-reduction strategy, which could limit the liquidity environment that supports Bitcoin's recovery from monthly lows.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Recently, Bitcoin's price dipped to around $86,000, then rebounded in sync with the U.S. stock market to above $90,000, with its price volatility reflecting shifts in macro assets.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Japan's Tax System and Investment Rules Adjustment</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>This policy shift coincides with Japan's plan to restructure its cryptocurrency tax system. The new tax regime will impose a flat tax rate of 20% on trading gains starting in 2026, aligning with the rates for stocks and investment trusts, treating cryptocurrencies equally with other financial instruments.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>According to the proposal, cryptocurrency gains will become an independent tax category between national and local governments. Currently, income from digital assets is taxed under a progressive tax system, with rates potentially exceeding 55%.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Critics argue that this tax structure will not promote sales, as it imposes a significant tax burden on investors. However, reform advocates expect this unified lower tax rate to encourage greater participation in Japan's internal cryptocurrency market, which had approximately 8 million active accounts in September, with a spot trading volume of about 1.5 trillion yen (around $9.6 billion).</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Japanese asset management firms are also making adjustments. Nomura Asset Management has established an internal working group to assess product strategies, while Daiwa Asset Management is collaborating with Global X Japan to explore potential new products.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management and Amova Asset Management are renegotiating their custody, pricing, and standard agreements to support increased exposure of retail and institutional investors to digital assets.</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/49whuoSjb840fwiKftME.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>日本加息政策即将影响全球风险市场，日本加息核弹使比特币处于疲弱的境地，投资者正在为历经三十年的超低资金成本结束做准备。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>据预测，在12月的政策会议上，日本银行将基准利率提高至0.75%，这将是自1995年以来的最高水平。这一政策变化的前景已经使日圆的价值上升，从上周以上155日圆每美元的水平，调整至约154.56日圆。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>日本加息核弹对高波动市场的影响</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根据参与政策讨论的专家，若全球或日本国内市场未出现重大冲击，政策制定者倾向于在12月19日的会议上加息25个基点。日本央行总裁植田和男表示，董事会将重申以往的加息表达，并作出合适的决策。市场数据显示，12月加息的可能性已接近90%。此外，与首相高市早苗的政府部门对紧缩议程的支持，显示这一政策将获得更广泛的政治支持。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>资金成本的上升将直接影响日圆套利交易。该策略使对冲基金及专用交易台能够以低廉的日圆借入资金，并投入到更加波动的资产中。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>比特币是受制于杠杆及流动性变化最为明显的市场之一，因此投资者在面对借贷成本上升时，比特币的价格也受到影响。日圆的增强与宏观投资组合的降低风险策略相一致，这可能限制支持比特币从月内低点复苏的流动性环境。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>日前比特币的价格曾下跌至约86,000美元，然后与美国股市同步回升至约 9万美元以上水平，其价格波动反映了宏观资产的轮动变化。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>日本调整税制与投资规则</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此政策变化恰逢日本计划重构其加密货币税制，新的税制将于2026年起对交易收益征收20%的平税，税率将与股票及投资信托相同，加密货币也将与其他金融工具一视同仁。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根据提案，加密货币收益将成为国家与地方政府之间的独立税档。目前，数字资产的收入则需要按照累进税制征税，税率可能会超过55%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>批评者认为，该税制不会促进销售，因其会使投资者面临巨额税务负担。然而，改革倡导者预期，这一统一的减税比例将激励更多参与日本内部的加密市场，该市场在9月份的活跃账户达约800万，现货交易量约为1.5兆日圆（约96亿美元）。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>日本的资产管理公司也随之调整，野村资产管理已成立内部工作小组以评估产品策略，大和资产管理则与 Global X Japan 合作，探索潜在的新产品。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>三菱UFJ资产管理和 Amova 资产管理正在重新协商其保管、定价及标准协议，以支持增加零售及机构投资者对数字资产的曝光。</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/49whuoSjb840fwiKftME.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>日本加息政策即將影響全球風險市場，日本加息核彈使比特幣處於疲弱的境地，投資者正在為歷經三十年的超低資金成本結束做準備。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>據預測，在12月的政策會議上，日本銀行將基準利率提高至0.75%，這將是自1995年以來的最高水平。這一政策變化的前景已經使日圓的價值上升，從上週以上155日圓每美元的水平，調整至約154.56日圓。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>日本加息核彈對高波動市場的影響</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根據參與政策討論的專家，若全球或日本國內市場未出現重大衝擊，政策制定者傾向於在12月19日的會議上加息25個基點。日本央行總裁植田和男表示，董事會將重申以往的加息表達，並作出合適的決策。市場數據顯示，12月加息的可能性已接近90%。此外，與首相高市早苗的政府部門對緊縮議程的支持，顯示這一政策將獲得更廣泛的政治支持。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>資金成本的上升將直接影響日圓套利交易。該策略使對沖基金及專用交易台能夠以低廉的日圓借入資金，並投入到更加波動的資產中。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>比特幣是受制於槓桿及流動性變化最為明顯的市場之一，因此投資者在面對借貸成本上升時，比特幣的價格也受到影響。日圓的增強與宏觀投資組合的降低風險策略相一致，這可能限制支持比特幣從月內低點復甦的流動性環境。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>日前比特幣的價格曾下跌至約86,000美元，然後與美國股市同步回升至約 9萬美元以上水平，其價格波動反映了宏觀資產的輪動變化。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>日本調整稅制與投資規則</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此政策變化恰逢日本計劃重構其加密貨幣稅制，新的稅制將於2026年起對交易收益徵收20%的平稅，稅率將與股票及投資信託相同，加密貨幣也將與其他金融工具一視同仁。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根據提案，加密貨幣收益將成為國家與地方政府之間的獨立稅檔。目前，數字資產的收入則需要按照累進稅制徵稅，稅率可能會超過55%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>批評者認為，該稅制不會促進銷售，因其會使投資者面臨巨額稅務負擔。然而，改革倡導者預期，這一統一的減稅比例將激勵更多參與日本內部的加密市場，該市場在9月份的活躍賬戶達約800萬，現貨交易量約為1.5兆日圓（約96億美元）。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>日本的資產管理公司也隨之調整，野村資產管理已成立內部工作小組以評估產品策略，大和資產管理則與 Global X Japan 合作，探索潛在的新產品。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>三菱UFJ資產管理和 Amova 資產管理正在重新協商其保管、定價及標準協議，以支持增加零售及機構投資者對數字資產的曝光。</p>

Japan's interest rate hike and nuclear test countdown are imminent!

日本加息核弹倒数！日圆套利交易退潮 恐抽干比特币流动性

日本加息核彈倒數！日圓套利交易退潮 恐抽乾比特幣流動性

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/Dzo7garTBCiWu5XCGv4W.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>Strategy is actively enhancing its capital reserves. The latest report shows that the company has created a cash reserve of $1.44 billion and expanded its Bitcoin holdings to 650,000 BTC, following a recent purchase of 130 Bitcoins. However, despite the company's progress in increasing reserves and dividends, investors remain skeptical about the sustainability of its capital chain model.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Bitcoin Holdings Reach 650,000; Cash Reserves Successfully Increased</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Strategy announced that it recently purchased 130 Bitcoins for approximately $11.7 million, with an average cost of $89,960 per Bitcoin, raising its total Bitcoin investment to $48.38 billion, at an average transaction price of $74,436 per Bitcoin. The company stated that this cash reserve will support its preferred stock dividend payments and debt interest.</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>Strategy's Dangerous "Capital Cycle"</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Strategy raised funds by selling Class A common shares through its market offering plan to establish this reserve. The company’s management stated that the current plan is to ensure sufficient cash to meet payment obligations for at least 12 months, with the goal, depending on market conditions and liquidity needs, potentially increasing the buffer amount to 24 months or more.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>According to company data, the current cash reserves complement its Bitcoin reserves, which make up approximately 3.1% of the ultimate supply of 21 million BTC. Management emphasized that this structure is designed to allow the company to flexibly meet fixed payment demands without selling Bitcoins, while viewing Bitcoin as a long-term treasury asset. Strategy stated that the size and conditions of the reserves will be adjusted based on changes in market capital costs, Bitcoin prices, and capital market environments.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Critics: STRC Dividend Raised to 10.75%</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Michael Saylor posted on social media platform X that the dividend yield for Strategy’s STRC preferred stock has reached 10.75% after "another rate hike last night." This adjustment results from the recent restructuring of the company's capital.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Subsequently, long-time Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff condemned this, questioning Strategy’s business model. He believes this signals that the "end has already begun" for Strategy, pointing out that Saylor’s sale of shares was not to buy more Bitcoins, but to raise dollars to meet his interest and dividend payment requirements. He described the stock as "collapsed" and accused the business model of being a scam, claiming that Saylor misled investors.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>In a follow-up post, Peter Schiff indicated that Strategy is now raising funds by selling shares and using those funds to purchase U.S. Treasuries, which yield about 4%, while needing to pay interest rates between 8% and 10% on its own debts and preferred stock. He questioned whether investors can see this as a viable strategy or merely as leveraging to speculate on Bitcoin.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Strategy's Stock Price Discount Greater than Its Bitcoin Holdings</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Since October 6, Strategy has fallen by over half. The company's current holdings of 650,000 BTC are worth about $55 billion, while its stock trading price is below the nominal value of its Bitcoin reserves by about $10 billion.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>After deducting the reported $8.2 billion in debt, the company's net Bitcoin holdings amount to about $46.8 billion. This figure still exceeds the company’s market value of approximately $1.8 billion, and does not account for any cash on its balance sheet. The Kobeissi Letter noted that this gap illustrates how significantly investors have reassessed the stock, questioning whether Executive Chairman Michael Saylor can continue to increase the company’s Bitcoin holdings under the current circumstances.</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/Dzo7garTBCiWu5XCGv4W.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>Strategy危险「资金循环」。 Strategy正在积极提升其资金储备，最新报告显示该公司已创建14.4亿美元的现金储备，并将其比特币持有量扩大至65万BTC，这是在新购130枚比特币之后实现的。然而，尽管公司在提高储备和分红方面有所进展，投资者对其Strategy资金链模式的可持续性仍表示质疑。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>比特币持有量达65万 现金储备成功增加</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Strategy 宣布，最近以约1170万美元的价格购买了130枚比特币，平均成本为每枚89,960美元，这使其总比特币投资上升至483.8亿美元，平均成交价为每枚74,436美元。该公司指出，这笔美元储备将会支持其优先股票的股息支付及债务利息。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Strategy危险「资金循环」</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Strategy 透过其市场发售计划，出售了A类普通股份以筹集资金，用于建立这笔储备。该公司管理层表示，目前的计划是确保保持足够的现金，以应对至少12个月的支付义务，并视市场条件及流动性需求，目标可能将缓冲金额提高至24个月或更高。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根据公司资料，目前的美元储备与其比特币储备相辅相成，该比特币储备约占最终2100万BTC供应量的3.1%。管理层强调，这一结构旨在使公司在不出售比特币的情况下，能灵活应对固定支付的需求，同时将比特币视为长期的财库资产。 Strategy 表示，储备的大小及条件将根据市场上资金成本、比特币价格及资本市场环境的变化而调整。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>批评 STRC 股息提升至10.75%</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Michael Saylor 在社交平台X上发文称，Strategy 的 STRC 优先股股息率在「昨晚再度加息」后，已达到10.75%。此一上调是该公司资本结构最近调整的结果。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>随后，长期比特币批评者 Peter Schiff 对此表示了谴责，并质疑 Strategy 的商业模式。他认为这标志着 Strategy 的「结局已然开始」，并指出 Saylor 出售股票并非为了购买更多的比特币，而是为了筹措美元以满足其利息及分红的支付要求。他形容该股票已「崩溃」，并指责其商业模式如同诈骗，称 Saylor 误导了投资者。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在后续发文中， P​​eter Schiff 还表示，Strategy 现在通过出售股票来筹集资金，并用这些资金购买美国国债，收益率约为4%，而在其自身债务及优先股票上则需支付8%至10%之间的利息。他质疑投资者能否将这视为可行的策略，还是仅仅是使用杠杆来投机比特币。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Strategy 股价折让大于其比特币持有量</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>自10月6日以来，Strategy 累计下跌逾半。该公司目前持有的65万BTC价值约550亿美元，而其股票交易价已低于其比特币储备的名义价值约100亿美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在扣除 Strategy 报告的82亿美元债务后，该公司的净比特币持仓约为468亿美元。这一数字仍高于公司的市值约18亿美元，且未考虑其资产负债表上的任何现金。 《Kobeissi Letter》指出，这一差距显示出投资者如何大幅重新评估该股票，并质疑执行主席 Michael Saylor 在当前情况下是否能继续增加公司的比特币持有量。</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/Dzo7garTBCiWu5XCGv4W.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>Strategy危險「資金循環」。Strategy正在積極提升其資金儲備，最新報告顯示該公司已創建14.4億美元的現金儲備，並將其比特幣持有量擴大至65萬BTC，這是在新購130枚比特幣之後實現的。然而，儘管公司在提高儲備和分紅方面有所進展，投資者對其Strategy資金鍊模式的可持續性仍表示質疑。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>比特幣持有量達65萬 現金儲備成功增加</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Strategy 宣布，最近以約1170萬美元的價格購買了130枚比特幣，平均成本為每枚89,960美元，這使其總比特幣投資上升至483.8億美元，平均成交價為每枚74,436美元。該公司指出，這筆美元儲備將會支持其優先股票的股息支付及債務利息。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Strategy危險「資金循環」</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Strategy 透過其市場發售計劃，出售了A類普通股份以籌集資金，用於建立這筆儲備。該公司管理層表示，目前的計劃是確保保持足夠的現金，以應對至少12個月的支付義務，並視市場條件及流動性需求，目標可能將緩衝金額提高至24個月或更高。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根據公司資料，目前的美元儲備與其比特幣儲備相輔相成，該比特幣儲備約占最終2100萬BTC供應量的3.1%。管理層強調，這一結構旨在使公司在不出售比特幣的情況下，能靈活應對固定支付的需求，同時將比特幣視為長期的財庫資產。Strategy 表示，儲備的大小及條件將根據市場上資金成本、比特幣價格及資本市場環境的變化而調整。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>批評 STRC 股息提升至10.75%</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a href="https://x.com/saylor/status/1995479071518577116">Michael Saylor 在社交平台X上發文稱</a>，Strategy 的 STRC 優先股股息率在「昨晚再度加息」後，已達到10.75%。此一上調是該公司資本結構最近調整的結果。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>隨後，長期比特幣批評者 Peter Schiff 對此表示了譴責，並質疑 Strategy 的商業模式。他認為這標誌著 Strategy 的「結局已然開始」，並指出 Saylor 出售股票並非為了購買更多的比特幣，而是為了籌措美元以滿足其利息及分紅的支付要求。他形容該股票已「崩潰」，並指責其商業模式如同詐騙，稱 Saylor 誤導了投資者。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在後續發文中， Peter Schiff 還表示，Strategy 現在通過出售股票來籌集資金，並用這些資金購買美國國債，收益率約為4%，而在其自身債務及優先股票上則需支付8%至10%之間的利息。他質疑投資者能否將這視為可行的策略，還是僅僅是使用槓桿來投機比特幣。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Strategy 股價折讓大於其比特幣持有量</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>自10月6日以來，Strategy 累計下跌逾半。<a href="https://cftime.io/strategys-market-capitalization-lower-its-btc/">該公司目前持有的65萬BTC價值約550億美元</a>，而其股票交易價已低於其比特幣儲備的名義價值約100億美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在扣除 Strategy 報告的82億美元債務後，該公司的淨比特幣持倉約為468億美元。這一數字仍高於公司的市值約18億美元，且未考慮其資產負債表上的任何現金。《Kobeissi Letter》指出，這一差距顯示出投資者如何大幅重新評估該股票，並質疑執行主席 Michael Saylor 在當前情況下是否能繼續增加公司的比特幣持有量。</p>

Dissecting Strategy's dangerous "capital cycle"

左手卖股筹14亿 右手买比特币！拆解Strategy危险「资金循环」

左手賣股籌14億 右手買比特幣！拆解Strategy危險「資金循環」

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/ddFrbQzdVZMzwBTMGnI5.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>As quantum computing technology approaches the core encryption that secures Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency faces its most severe existential threat.</p><p>Quantum computing is no longer just a figment of science fiction or a dream of cryptopunks; it has become a real threat to the world’s first borderless currency. If you once believed that Satoshi Nakamoto's creation could escape existential risks, you may need to reconsider. A recent report from the Human Rights Foundation (HRF) has highlighted concerns from many Bitcoin holders and cryptographers.</p><h2>Is Quantum Computing a Threat to Bitcoin?</h2><p>HRF's detailed analysis indicates that Bitcoin is not merely a speculative asset, but an essential lifeline for activists, journalists, and dissenters facing financial oppression. The decentralized, private, and permissionless nature of Bitcoin enables the flow of donations while avoiding government seizures.</p><p>However, the security of all this relies on robust encryption technology, and quantum computing is the only technological breakthrough capable of dismantling these intangible protections. Quantum computing could put nearly $700 billion worth of Bitcoin at risk, with 4.49 million Bitcoins being secure only if their holders act swiftly to migrate them to quantum-resistant addresses.</p><p>Despite researchers being eager to roll out quantum-safe upgrades, progress in the Bitcoin world is slow, leading to fierce debates about whether to "burn" immovable coins (potentially affecting Bitcoin's neutrality) or risk being robbed by quantum thieves.</p><p>More importantly, quantum-safe transactions could exacerbate the blockchain's bloat, turning Bitcoin's scalability issue from a minor headache into an overwhelming migraine. This is not just a technical challenge; it tests whether the network is willing to evolve without undermining Bitcoin’s core attributes. Nic Carter, co-founder of Coin Metrics and a Bitcoin advocate, bluntly states:</p><blockquote><p>“In my view, quantum computing poses the greatest risk to Bitcoin. This is a significant issue for many financial systems and other blockchains, but for Bitcoin, it is a unique and difficult challenge.”</p></blockquote><h2>How Many Bitcoins Are at Risk?</h2><p>The HRF report reveals that approximately 6.5 million Bitcoins (nearly a third of all BTC) are currently vulnerable to so-called "long-range" quantum attacks. These attacks target older or reused address types. Theoretically, owners can protect 4.49 million Bitcoins by migrating their balances to quantum-resistant addresses.</p><p>However, this means that 1.7 million BTC, including the legendary 1.1 million belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto, would be frozen and potentially exposed to quantum thieves in the future. Quantum threats can mainly be categorized into two attack vectors: "long-range attacks" and "short-range attacks."</p><p>Long-range attacks target idle and reused addresses, exploiting exposed public keys, while short-range attacks use transaction windows to steal funds before confirmation, provided the attacker can compute the private key in real time.</p><h2>Burn or Be Burned: Protocol Politics</h2><p>The decentralized upgrade process of Bitcoin is its greatest asset, but it is also its biggest weakness on this issue. Unlike Apple's latest OS updates, Bitcoin does not automatically receive security patches. Achieving consensus often takes years rather than weeks.</p><p>The debate over "burn or steal" intensifies: Should developers burn coins susceptible to quantum attacks, freeze them, or allow quantum thieves to steal lost wallets? There is no consensus on this matter, which is not surprising for a project that values property rights, anti-censorship, and anti-governance. The report concludes:</p><blockquote><p>“Upgrading Bitcoin to withstand quantum threats is both a human challenge and a cryptographic challenge. Any successful soft fork integrating quantum-resistant signature schemes will require user education, thoughtful user interface design, and coordination within a global ecosystem that includes users, developers, hardware manufacturers, node operators, and civil society.”</p></blockquote><h2>New Algorithms, Bigger Blocks, and New Challenges</h2><p>Transitioning to quantum-resistant algorithms is not just a technical add-on. HRF highlights two categories of solutions: lattice-based and hash-based signature schemes, each with different trade-offs. Larger keys mean bulkier transactions, fewer transactions per block, heavier full nodes, and new challenges in the Bitcoin scaling wars.</p><p>As a reference, lattice-based signatures are about ten times the size of current signatures, while the most streamlined hash-based alternatives are about 38 times larger. Each technical fix will require wallet redesigns, hardware updates, retraining of node operators, and user education on a global scale.</p><p>The community must coordinate among coders, wallet builders, advocacy groups, and millions of skeptical holders (many of whom may not even know their coins are at risk). History shows that even friendly upgrades can take years to pass, and with the timeline for quantum computing still uncertain, the window for action may close faster than anticipated.</p><h2>Future Outlook: Resilience or Ruin?</h2><p>Any lasting solution will require grassroots support, not just GitHub commits. The fate of forgotten Bitcoins (and potentially the legitimacy of the entire ecosystem) hinges on how the network responds to these political, technical, and social challenges over the next decade.</p><p>For Bitcoin's rebels, cryptopunks, and involuntary exiles, the message is clear: continuous education, ongoing upgrades, and do not assume Satoshi's armor is permanently bulletproof. As Bitcoin security expert, core developer, and co-founder of Casa, Jameson Lopp warns, an even greater threat than quantum computing is apathy:</p><blockquote><p>“If people are indifferent to ongoing discussions about improving Bitcoin, it will become vulnerable and more susceptible to new threats.”</p></blockquote>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/ddFrbQzdVZMzwBTMGnI5.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>量子计算破解比特币？随着量子计算技术逐渐逼近破解比特币的加密核心，比特币目前面临着其最严重的生存威胁。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>量子计算不再仅仅是科幻小说或密码朋克的幻想，它已成为世界首个无国界货币的现实威胁。如果你曾认为中本聪的创作能免于生存风险，那么你可能需要重新考虑。人权基金会（HRF）最近的报告中，许多比特币持有者和密码学家的观点引发了关注。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>量子计算破解比特币？被视为比特币的「最大风险」</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>HRF 的详细分析指出，比特币不仅仅是一个投机性的资产，而是面对财政压迫的活动家、记者和异议人士的重要生命线。比特币的去中心化、私隐和无需许可的特性使得捐款流动得以维持，并避免政府的查扣。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，这一切的安全性都依赖于稳固的加密技术，而量子计算则是唯一能够摧毁这些无形保护的技术突破。量子计算将使近 7000 亿美元的比特币面临风险，另有 449 万枚比特币仅在持有者迅速行动，并将其迁移到抗量子地址时才能安全。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>尽管研究人员急于推出量子安全的升级，但比特币的世界进展缓慢，这导致了关于是否应「烧毁」不可移动的币（并影响比特币的中立性）或冒着量子盗贼抢劫的风险之间的激烈辩论。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>更重要的是，量子安全的交易将使区块链膨胀，将比特币的扩展问题从轻微的头痛变成压倒性的偏头痛。这不仅是技术上的挑战；还考验着网络是否愿意在不破坏比特币核心特质的情况下进行演变。 Coin Metrics 的联合创始人及比特币倡导者 Nic Carter 在他最近的著作中直言道：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「在我看来，量子计算是比特币面临的最大风险。这对许多金融系统和其他区块链来说都是一个重大问题，但对比特币来说，这是一个独特且难以解决的挑战。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>有多少比特币面临风险？</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>HRF 的报告显示，大约 650 万枚比特币（几乎是所有 BTC 的三分之一）目前易受到所谓的「长距离」量子攻击的威胁。这些攻击针对旧的或重复使用的地址类型。理论上，拥有者可以通过将余额迁移到抗量子地址来保护 449 万枚比特币。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，这意味着 170 万枚 BTC，包括中本聪传奇的 110 万枚，将被冻结，并在未来可能完全暴露于量子盗贼之下。量子威胁主要可分为两个攻击向量：「长距离攻击」和「短距离攻击」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>长距离攻击针对闲置和重复使用的地址，利用暴露的公钥；短距离攻击则利用交易窗口，在确认之前窃取资金，前提是攻击者能够即时计算私人密钥。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>「烧毁」或被烧毁：协议政治</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>比特币的去中心化升级过程是其最大的资产，但在此议题上也是其最大的弱点。与苹果最新的操作系统更新不同，比特币不会自动获得安全修复。共识的达成往往需要多年而非数周。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「烧毁或盗窃」的辩论愈演愈烈：开发者应该烧毁易受量子攻击的币、冻结它们，还是让量子盗贼盗取失落的钱包？在这一问题上，没有人达成共识，这对于一个重视财产权、抗审查和反治理的项目来说并不意外。报告总结道：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「升级比特币以抵御量子威胁，既是一项人类挑战，也是一项加密挑战。任何成功的软分叉集成量子抗性签名方案都需要用户教育、周到的用户界面设计，以及在包括用户、开发者、硬件制造商、节点运营商和公民社会在内的全球生态系统中的协调。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>新的算法、更大的区块及新的挑战</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>转向抗量子算法不仅仅是一个技术附带问题。 HRF 突出强调了两类解决方案：基于格的和基于哈希的签名方案，每种方案都有不同的权衡。更大的密钥意味着更笨重的交易、每个区块的交易数量减少、更重的完整节点，以及比特币扩展战争中的新挑战。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>作为参考，基于格的签名约为当前签名的十倍大小，而最精简的基于哈希的替代方案则大约大 38 倍。每一项技术修复都将需要钱包重新设计、硬件更新、节点操作员再培训，以及全球范围内的用户教育。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>社区必须在编码者、钱包建设者、倡导团体和数百万怀疑的持有者之间进行协调（许多人甚至不知道自己的币处于危险之中）。历史表明，即使是友好的升级也需要数年才能通过，而随着量子计算的时间表仍然不明，行动的窗口可能比预期的更快关闭。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>未来展望：韧性或毁灭？</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>任何持久的解决方案都需要基层的支持，而不仅仅是 GitHub 的提交。被遗忘的比特币（以及可能是整个生态系统的合法性）的命运取决于网络如何在未来十年内应对这些政治、技术和社会挑战。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>对于比特币的叛逆者、密码朋克和非自愿的流亡者来说，信息是明确的。持续教育、持续升级，不要假设中本聪的盔甲是永久防弹的。正如比特币安全专家、核心开发者及 Casa 的联合创始人 Jameson Lopp 所警告的，甚至比量子计算更大的威胁是漠不关心：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「如果人们对持续讨论改善比特币感到漠不关心，那么它就会变得脆弱，并更容易受到新威胁的侵袭。」</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/ddFrbQzdVZMzwBTMGnI5.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p><a href="https://cftime.io/quantum-day/">量子計算</a>破解比特幣？隨著量子計算技術逐漸逼近破解比特幣的加密核心，比特幣目前面臨著其最嚴重的生存威脅。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>量子計算不再僅僅是科幻小說或密碼朋克的幻想，它已成為世界首個無國界貨幣的現實威脅。如果你曾認為中本聰的創作能免於生存風險，那麼你可能需要重新考慮。<a href="https://hrf.org/latest/the-quantum-threat-to-bitcoin/">人權基金會（HRF）最近的報告中</a>，許多比特幣持有者和密碼學家的觀點引發了關注。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>量子計算破解比特幣？被視為比特幣的「最大風險」</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>HRF 的詳細分析指出，比特幣不僅僅是一個投機性的資產，而是面對財政壓迫的活動家、記者和異議人士的重要生命線。比特幣的去中心化、私隱和無需許可的特性使得捐款流動得以維持，並避免政府的查扣。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，這一切的安全性都依賴於穩固的加密技術，而量子計算則是唯一能夠摧毀這些無形保護的技術突破。量子計算將使近 7000 億美元的比特幣面臨風險，另有 449 萬枚比特幣僅在持有者迅速行動，並將其遷移到抗量子地址時才能安全。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>儘管研究人員急於推出量子安全的升級，但比特幣的世界進展緩慢，這導致了關於是否應「燒毀」不可移動的幣（並影響比特幣的中立性）或冒著量子盜賊搶劫的風險之間的激烈辯論。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>更重要的是，量子安全的交易將使區塊鏈膨脹，將比特幣的擴展問題從輕微的頭痛變成壓倒性的偏頭痛。這不僅是技術上的挑戰；還考驗著網絡是否願意在不破壞比特幣核心特質的情況下進行演變。Coin Metrics 的聯合創始人及比特幣倡導者 <a href="https://murmurationstwo.substack.com/p/bitcoin-and-the-quantum-problem-part">Nic Carter 在他最近的著作中直言道：</a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「在我看來，量子計算是比特幣面臨的最大風險。這對許多金融系統和其他區塊鏈來說都是一個重大問題，但對比特幣來說，這是一個獨特且難以解決的挑戰。」</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>有多少比特幣面臨風險？</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>HRF 的報告顯示，大約 650 萬枚比特幣（幾乎是所有 BTC 的三分之一）目前易受到所謂的「長距離」量子攻擊的威脅。這些攻擊針對舊的或重複使用的地址類型。理論上，擁有者可以通過將餘額遷移到抗量子地址來保護 449 萬枚比特幣。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，這意味著 170 萬枚 BTC，包括中本聰傳奇的 110 萬枚，將被凍結，並在未來可能完全暴露於量子盜賊之下。量子威脅主要可分為兩個攻擊向量：「長距離攻擊」和「短距離攻擊」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>長距離攻擊針對閒置和重複使用的地址，利用暴露的公鑰；短距離攻擊則利用交易窗口，在確認之前竊取資金，前提是攻擊者能夠即時計算私人密鑰。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>「燒毀」或被燒毀：協議政治</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>比特幣的去中心化升級過程是其最大的資產，但在此議題上也是其最大的弱點。與蘋果最新的操作系統更新不同，比特幣不會自動獲得安全修復。共識的達成往往需要多年而非數週。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「燒毀或盜竊」的辯論愈演愈烈：開發者應該燒毀易受量子攻擊的幣、凍結它們，還是讓量子盜賊盜取失落的錢包？在這一問題上，沒有人達成共識，這對於一個重視財產權、抗審查和反治理的項目來說並不意外。報告總結道：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「升級比特幣以抵禦量子威脅，既是一項人類挑戰，也是一項加密挑戰。任何成功的軟分叉集成量子抗性簽名方案都需要用戶教育、周到的用戶界面設計，以及在包括用戶、開發者、硬件製造商、節點運營商和公民社會在內的全球生態系統中的協調。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>新的算法、更大的區塊及新的挑戰</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>轉向抗量子算法不僅僅是一個技術附帶問題。HRF 突出強調了兩類解決方案：基於格的和基於哈希的簽名方案，每種方案都有不同的權衡。更大的密鑰意味著更笨重的交易、每個區塊的交易數量減少、更重的完整節點，以及比特幣擴展戰爭中的新挑戰。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>作為參考，基於格的簽名約為當前簽名的十倍大小，而最精簡的基於哈希的替代方案則大約大 38 倍。每一項技術修復都將需要錢包重新設計、硬件更新、節點操作員再培訓，以及全球範圍內的用戶教育。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>社區必須在編碼者、錢包建設者、倡導團體和數百萬懷疑的持有者之間進行協調（許多人甚至不知道自己的幣處於危險之中）。歷史表明，即使是友好的升級也需要數年才能通過，而隨著量子計算的時間表仍然不明，行動的窗口可能比預期的更快關閉。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>未來展望：韌性或毀滅？</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>任何持久的解決方案都需要基層的支持，而不僅僅是 GitHub 的提交。被遺忘的比特幣（以及可能是整個生態系統的合法性）的命運取決於網絡如何在未來十年內應對這些政治、技術和社會挑戰。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>對於比特幣的叛逆者、密碼朋克和非自願的流亡者來說，信息是明確的。持續教育、持續升級，不要假設中本聰的盔甲是永久防彈的。正如比特幣安全專家、核心開發者及 Casa 的聯合創始人 Jameson Lopp 所警告的，甚至比量子計算更大的威脅是漠不關心：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「如果人們對持續討論改善比特幣感到漠不關心，那麼它就會變得脆弱，並更容易受到新威脅的侵襲。」</p>

Quantum computing could crack Bitcoin

量子计算破解比特币？报告：恐让「三分之一BTC」瞬间被盗

量子計算破解比特幣？報告：恐讓「三分之一BTC」瞬間被盜

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/QqYQLG77B7uybfBimcAj.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Last week, the market experienced a sell-off triggered by trade shocks, resulting in "the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history," followed by a gradual price recovery. On Friday, Bitcoin's price dropped from $121,000 to $109,000 in about seven hours, erasing the gains from the earlier "October rebound." According to CoinGecko, Ethereum's price fell to $3,686, while Solana hovered above $173.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Join the CFTime TG discussion group! Stay updated on the latest trends in the crypto market and AI news, and get free Web 3 entry tickets anytime!</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Crypto’s Largest Single-Day Liquidation: Nearly $7 Billion Liquidated in One Hour</strong></h3><p><br>This trading session triggered a "liquidation flash crash," with nearly $7 billion in funds liquidated in one hour, of which $5.5 billion came from long positions. According to Sean Dawson, head of research at the on-chain options platform Derive, Friday's total liquidations approached $20 billion, primarily consisting of $16.7 billion in long positions, marking "the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The stock market was similarly affected, with the Nasdaq index dropping by 3.6%, the S&amp;P 500 decreasing by 2.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 1.9%.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>October was initially considered a strong month for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices, but the market faced obstacles due to President Trump's trade war. According to CoinGlass, over $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, and as liquidations increased, cryptocurrency prices rapidly fell.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>This sell-off occurred following Trump's announcement to cancel a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and to impose significant tariffs on Chinese imports, with Trump warning that this move could cause "potential pain" for Americans.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Analysis: The Market Crash May Be Due to Short-term Overreactions to Geopolitics</strong></h3><p><br>After Trump's tariff warning, China also restricted the export of rare earth and critical minerals, further escalating tensions between the two major economies. By the weekend, China seemed to begin softening its stance, and analysts noted that the market's crash could be attributed to a short-term overreaction to geopolitical events.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Following this plunge, Bitcoin's price has rebounded to $115,100, a 5% increase; Ethereum has risen by 10.5% to $4,138. Major altcoins like Solana, BNB, and Dogecoin saw increases of 12%, 16.5%, and 11.4%, respectively.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Dean Serroni, CEO of Merkle Tree Capital, stated, "This rebound is a typical relief rally. Ethereum's 11% increase is a short-term recovery following the market's overreaction to Trump's sudden tariff news." He noted that with the reset of derivatives market pressure, selling pressure is relatively "weak," which has also facilitated the price recovery. Serroni added, "This market crash is an overreaction to geopolitics, not a structural breakdown."</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/QqYQLG77B7uybfBimcAj.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>上周市场经历了一次因贸易冲击而引发的抛售，成「加密历史上最大单日清算」，随后价格开始逐渐回升。周五，比特币的价格在约七小时内从121,000美元下滑至109,000美元，抹去早前「十月回升」所带来的涨幅。根据CoinGecko的数据，以太坊的价格降至3,686美元，而Solana在173美元以上徘徊。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>加密历史上最大单日清算 一小时内清算了近70亿美元的资金</strong></h3><p><br>此次交易引发了一场「清算的闪崩」，在一小时内清算了近70亿美元的资金，其中55亿美元来自多头头寸。根据链上选项平台Dervie的研究负责人Sean Dawson表示，周五的清算总额接近200亿美元，主要由167亿美元的多头位置组成，这标志着「加密历史上最大单日清算」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>股市同样受到影响，纳斯达克指数下跌3.6%，标准普尔500指数下降2.7%，而道琼斯工业平均指数则下跌1.9%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>十月原本被认为是比特币和加密货币价格的强势月份，但由于特朗普总统的贸易战影响，市场遭遇阻碍。根据CoinGlass的数据，过去24小时内超过10亿美元的加密头寸被清算，随着清算的增加，加密货币价格迅速下跌。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此次抛售随着特朗普宣布取消与中国国家主席习近平的会议，以及对中国进口商品实施大幅关税的消息而发生，特朗普警告此举可能会对美国人造成「潜在痛苦」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>分析：市场的暴跌可能是因为地缘政治的短期过度反应。</p><p><br>特朗普的关税警告发布后，中国也随之限制稀土和关键矿物的出口，进一步加剧了两大经济体之间的紧张关系。到了周末，中国似乎开始软化立场，分析师指出，市场的暴跌可能是因为地缘政治的短期过度反应。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在经历了这次暴跌后，比特币的价格已回升至115,100美元，涨幅达5%；以太坊则上涨10.5%，至4,138美元。主要替代币如Solana、BNB和Dogecoin的涨幅分别为12%、16.5%和11.4%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Merkle Tree Capital行政总裁Dean Serroni表示：「此次反弹是典型的缓解反弹。以太坊的11%涨幅是市场对特朗普关税突发消息的过度反应后的短期回补。」他指出，随着衍生品市场开仓压力的重置，卖压相对「薄弱」，这也促进了价格回升。 Serroni补充道：「此次市场暴跌是一种地缘政治的过度反应，而非结构性破裂。」</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/QqYQLG77B7uybfBimcAj.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>上周市場經歷了一次因貿易衝擊而引發的拋售，成「加密歷史上最大單日清算」，隨後價格開始逐漸回升。周五，比特幣的價格在約七小時內從121,000美元下滑至109,000美元，抹去早前「<a href="https://cftime.io/uptober-effect/">十月回升</a>」所帶來的漲幅。根據CoinGecko的數據，以太坊的價格降至3,686美元，而Solana在173美元以上徘徊。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>即加入</strong><a href="https://t.me/+l--9PJpFdIgxOTk9"><strong>CFTime TG 討論區</strong></a><strong>！想掌握最新加密市場動態與 AI 新聞與資訊，更能隨時獲得免費 web 3入場券！</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>加密歷史上最大單日清算 一小時內清算了近70億美元的資金</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此次交易引發了一場「清算的閃崩」，在一小時內清算了近70億美元的資金，其中55億美元來自多頭頭寸。根據鏈上選項平台Dervie的研究負責人Sean Dawson表示，周五的清算總額接近200億美元，主要由167億美元的多頭位置組成，這標誌著「加密歷史上最大單日清算」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>股市同樣受到影響，納斯達克指數下跌3.6%，標準普爾500指數下降2.7%，而道瓊斯工業平均指數則下跌1.9%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>十月原本被認為是比特幣和加密貨幣價格的強勢月份，但由於特朗普總統的貿易戰影響，市場遭遇阻礙。根據CoinGlass的數據，過去24小時內超過10億美元的加密頭寸被清算，隨著清算的增加，加密貨幣價格迅速下跌。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此次拋售隨著特朗普宣布取消與中國國家主席習近平的會議，以及對中國進口商品實施大幅關稅的消息而發生，特朗普警告此舉可能會對美國人造成「潛在痛苦」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>分析：市場的暴跌可能是因為地緣政治的短期過度反應。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>特朗普的關稅警告發布後，中國也隨之限制稀土和關鍵礦物的出口，進一步加劇了兩大經濟體之間的緊張關係。到了週末，<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-its-rare-earth-export-controls-are-legitimate-2025-10-12/">中國似乎開始軟化立場</a>，分析師指出，市場的暴跌可能是因為地緣政治的短期過度反應。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在經歷了這次暴跌後，比特幣的價格已回升至115,100美元，漲幅達5%；以太坊則上漲10.5%，至4,138美元。主要替代幣如Solana、BNB和Dogecoin的漲幅分別為12%、16.5%和11.4%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Merkle Tree Capital行政總裁Dean Serroni表示：「此次反彈是典型的緩解反彈。以太坊的11%漲幅是市場對特朗普關稅突發消息的過度反應後的短期回補。」他指出，隨著衍生品市場開倉壓力的重置，賣壓相對「薄弱」，這也促進了價格回升。Serroni補充道：「此次市場暴跌是一種地緣政治的過度反應，而非結構性破裂。」</p>

The largest single-day liquidation in crypto history

比特币与以太坊在「加密历史上最大单日清算」后回升

比特幣與以太坊在「加密歷史上最大單日清算」後回升

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/g2dGFb0Ssb5y1xfo9sH2.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Recently, Bitcoin surged past $125,000 during Asian trading hours, marking a new historical high and signaling the continuation of the market's upward momentum into October. Reports indicate that the cryptocurrency recorded an approximate increase of 2.7% on that day, reaching around $125,245, surpassing its previous peak of $124,480 recorded in August.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Institutional Inflows and Political Signals</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The report highlights that the massive demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) listed in the U.S. is a key driving force behind this recent surge. The weekly net inflows into these funds are reported to be around $3.24 billion.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Investors and traders also believe that the weakening of the dollar and a strong broader stock market are contributing factors to the rising prices. Some analysts attribute the shift in market sentiment to policy signals under President Trump and concerns over a potential government shutdown, prompting buyers to turn to alternative value storage assets.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Traders Confirm Uptober Effect</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The term "Uptober"—a nickname for October that typically describes bullish market conditions—has resurfaced this year. Traders noted that after Bitcoin successfully converted the $120,000 level into a technical support point, the subsequent technical breakout added upward momentum. However, the report shows that Bitcoin subsequently pulled back, reflecting a phenomenon where some market participants took profits after a rapid buying spree.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Tightening Exchange Liquidity</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>According to the report, the amount of Bitcoin held in centralized exchanges has decreased, indicating that the supply available for immediate sale in the market has diminished as buyers enter.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>This tightening of supply, combined with a new wave of ETF demand, creates conditions for more significant price volatility when capital flows surge. Market observers warn that this pattern could amplify both upward and downward price movements.</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>Analysts Focus on Resistance and Targets</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Options trading desks and chart analysts are closely monitoring recent resistance levels above the current highs. Meanwhile, some technical analysis scenarios point to larger targets in the coming months—some market participants have suggested figures of $135,000 or even higher, although these remain predictions rather than certainties. Volume and fund flows will be key in determining whether this rally can continue or cool off.</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>Significance of the Rally and Subsequent Risks</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Observers believe this rally is significant as it brings Bitcoin back into discussions alongside major asset classes. By certain metrics, the token's market capitalization once surpassed that of Amazon, placing it among the world's largest assets by market value. However, volatility remains high. A sharp reversal, policy shifts, or sudden changes in ETF fund flows could quickly alter the current situation.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>In summary, the combination of institutional buying, seasonal momentum, and macro factors has propelled Bitcoin to new highs. This rally has attracted a new wave of investor attention, but it also carries inherent risks of substantial price volatility. The market will closely monitor fund flows, the U.S. dollar's performance, and any policy signals from Washington for clues on the next developments.</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/g2dGFb0Ssb5y1xfo9sH2.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p>Uptober效应下，比特币日前在亚洲交易时段（ Asian hours ）冲破 $125,000 美元（下同），创下新的历史高位，标志着市场升势成功延续至 十月。据报道，该加密货币当日录得约 2.7% 的升幅，价格达到约 $125,245 ，超越了其先前于八月 录得的 $124,480 峰值。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>机构资金涌入与政治信号</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>报告指出，美国 上市的现货 Bitcoin ETFs（比特币交易所买卖基金）涌现的庞大需求浪潮，是推动此轮升势的关键动力。这些基金的每周资金净流入额据报约为 $3.24 billion 。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>投资者和交易员亦认为，美元走弱及更广泛的股市强劲，亦是推高价格的因素。部分分析将市场情绪的转变，归因于 美国总统特朗普领导下的政策信号，以及对美国政府可能停摆的担忧，促使买家转向替代性的价值储存资产。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>交易员确认Uptober效应</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「Uptober」——这个形容 十月 通常看涨行情的昵称——今年再度出现。交易员表示，在比特币成功将 $120,000 关口转化为技术性支撑位后，随后的技术性突破为其增添了上涨动能。但报告显示， 比特币随后有所回落，这反映了部分市场在快速买入后，随即出现获利了结的现象。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>交易所流动性收紧</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根据报告，存放在中心化交易所的比特币数量有所下降，这意味着当买家进场时，市场上可即时抛售的供应量减少。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>供应收紧，加上新一轮的 ETF 需求，为资金流激增时价格带来更剧烈的波动创造了条件。市场观察家警告，这种模式可能会同步放大价格的上涨和下跌幅度。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>分析师关注阻力与目标</h3><p>期权 交易柜台和图表分析师正关注当前高位上方的近期阻力水平。同时，一些技术分析情景指向未来数月更大的目标——部分市场参与者提出了 $135,000 甚至更高的数字，尽管这些仍属预测而非确定性结果。成交量（ Volume ）和基金流向（ fund flows ）将是决定此轮涨势能否持续或降温的关键。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>升势意义与后续风险</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>观察家认为，此轮升势意义重大，因为它使比特币重新回到与主要资产类别并驾齐驱的讨论中。在某些衡量标准上，该代币的市值一度超越了 Amazon，跻身全球最大市值资产之列。然而，波动性（ volatility ）依然高企。急剧逆转、政策转变或 ETF 资金流向的突然变化，都可能迅速改变当前局面。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>综合而言，机构买盘、季节性动力和宏观因素的结合，共同将 Bitcoin 推向新高。这次涨势吸引了投资者的新一轮关注，但同时也伴随着大幅价格波动的固有风险。市场将密切关注资金流向、 US dollar 走势，以及来自华盛顿的任何政策信号，以寻找下一步发展的线索。</p>

<div class="raw-html-embed"><div style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://static-asst.8338.hk/udhk-cms/g2dGFb0Ssb5y1xfo9sH2.jpg" style=" width: 100%;max-width: 600px; height: auto;">
</div></div><p><a href="https://cftime.io/uptober-2024/">Uptober</a>效應下，<strong>比特幣</strong>日前在亞洲交易時段（ <strong>Asian hours</strong> ）衝破 $125,000 美元（下同），<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bitcoin-hits-all-time-high-above-125000-2025-10-05/">創下新的歷史高位</a>，標誌著市場升勢成功延續至 十月。據報道，該加密貨幣當日錄得約 2.7% 的升幅，價格達到約 $125,245 ，超越了其先前於八月 錄得的 $124,480 峰值。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>機構資金湧入與政治信號</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>報告指出，美國 上市的現貨 <strong>Bitcoin ETFs</strong>（比特幣交易所買賣基金）湧現的龐大需求浪潮，是推動此輪升勢的關鍵動力。這些基金的每週資金淨流入額據報約為 $3.24 billion 。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>投資者和交易員亦認為，美元走弱及更廣泛的股市強勁，亦是推高價格的因素。部分分析將市場情緒的轉變，歸因於 美國總統特朗普領導下的政策信號，以及對美國政府可能停擺的擔憂，促使買家轉向替代性的價值儲存資產。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>交易員確認Uptober效應</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「<strong>Uptober</strong>」——這個形容 十月 通常看漲行情的暱稱——今年再度出現。交易員表示，在比特幣成功將 $120,000 關口轉化為技術性支撐位後，隨後的技術性突破為其增添了上漲動能。但報告顯示， 比特幣隨後有所回落，這反映了部分市場在快速買入後，隨即出現獲利了結的現象。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>交易所流動性收緊</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根據報告，存放在中心化交易所的比特幣數量有所下降，這意味著當買家進場時，市場上可即時拋售的供應量減少。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>供應收緊，加上新一輪的 <strong>ETF</strong> 需求，為資金流激增時價格帶來更劇烈的波動創造了條件。市場觀察家警告，這種模式可能會同步放大價格的上漲和下跌幅度。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>分析師關注阻力與目標</h3><p>期權 交易櫃台和圖表分析師正關注當前高位上方的近期阻力水平。同時，一些技術分析情景指向未來數月更大的目標——部分市場參與者提出了 $135,000 甚至更高的數字，儘管這些仍屬預測而非確定性結果。成交量（ <strong>Volume</strong> ）和基金流向（ <strong>fund flows</strong> ）將是決定此輪漲勢能否持續或降溫的關鍵。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>升勢意義與後續風險</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>觀察家認為，此輪升勢意義重大，因為它使比特幣重新回到與主要資產類別並駕齊驅的討論中。在某些衡量標準上，該代幣的市值一度超越了 <strong>Amazon</strong>，躋身全球最大市值資產之列。然而，波動性（ <strong>volatility</strong> ）依然高企。急劇逆轉、政策轉變或 <strong>ETF</strong> 資金流向的突然變化，都可能迅速改變當前局面。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>綜合而言，機構買盤、季節性動力和宏觀因素的結合，共同將 <strong>Bitcoin</strong> 推向新高。這次漲勢吸引了投資者的新一輪關注，但同時也伴隨著大幅價格波動的固有風險。市場將密切關注資金流向、 US dollar 走勢，以及來自華盛頓的任何政策信號，以尋找下一步發展的線索。</p>

UD Blog

專業文章及見解，揭示科技領域的一切

最新 - # 比特幣

歡迎來到 UD！隨時關注我們的分析文章、消息更新、優惠推廣和新聞稿。

UD Blockchain 通訊