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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Last week, the market experienced a sell-off triggered by trade shocks, resulting in "the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history," followed by a gradual price recovery. On Friday, Bitcoin's price dropped from $121,000 to $109,000 in about seven hours, erasing the gains from the earlier "October rebound." According to CoinGecko, Ethereum's price fell to $3,686, while Solana hovered above $173.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Join the CFTime TG discussion group! Stay updated on the latest trends in the crypto market and AI news, and get free Web 3 entry tickets anytime!</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Crypto’s Largest Single-Day Liquidation: Nearly $7 Billion Liquidated in One Hour</strong></h3><p><br>This trading session triggered a "liquidation flash crash," with nearly $7 billion in funds liquidated in one hour, of which $5.5 billion came from long positions. According to Sean Dawson, head of research at the on-chain options platform Derive, Friday's total liquidations approached $20 billion, primarily consisting of $16.7 billion in long positions, marking "the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The stock market was similarly affected, with the Nasdaq index dropping by 3.6%, the S&amp;P 500 decreasing by 2.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 1.9%.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>October was initially considered a strong month for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices, but the market faced obstacles due to President Trump's trade war. According to CoinGlass, over $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, and as liquidations increased, cryptocurrency prices rapidly fell.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>This sell-off occurred following Trump's announcement to cancel a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and to impose significant tariffs on Chinese imports, with Trump warning that this move could cause "potential pain" for Americans.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Analysis: The Market Crash May Be Due to Short-term Overreactions to Geopolitics</strong></h3><p><br>After Trump's tariff warning, China also restricted the export of rare earth and critical minerals, further escalating tensions between the two major economies. By the weekend, China seemed to begin softening its stance, and analysts noted that the market's crash could be attributed to a short-term overreaction to geopolitical events.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Following this plunge, Bitcoin's price has rebounded to $115,100, a 5% increase; Ethereum has risen by 10.5% to $4,138. Major altcoins like Solana, BNB, and Dogecoin saw increases of 12%, 16.5%, and 11.4%, respectively.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Dean Serroni, CEO of Merkle Tree Capital, stated, "This rebound is a typical relief rally. Ethereum's 11% increase is a short-term recovery following the market's overreaction to Trump's sudden tariff news." He noted that with the reset of derivatives market pressure, selling pressure is relatively "weak," which has also facilitated the price recovery. Serroni added, "This market crash is an overreaction to geopolitics, not a structural breakdown."</p>

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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>上周市场经历了一次因贸易冲击而引发的抛售，成「加密历史上最大单日清算」，随后价格开始逐渐回升。周五，比特币的价格在约七小时内从121,000美元下滑至109,000美元，抹去早前「十月回升」所带来的涨幅。根据CoinGecko的数据，以太坊的价格降至3,686美元，而Solana在173美元以上徘徊。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>加密历史上最大单日清算 一小时内清算了近70亿美元的资金</strong></h3><p><br>此次交易引发了一场「清算的闪崩」，在一小时内清算了近70亿美元的资金，其中55亿美元来自多头头寸。根据链上选项平台Dervie的研究负责人Sean Dawson表示，周五的清算总额接近200亿美元，主要由167亿美元的多头位置组成，这标志着「加密历史上最大单日清算」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>股市同样受到影响，纳斯达克指数下跌3.6%，标准普尔500指数下降2.7%，而道琼斯工业平均指数则下跌1.9%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>十月原本被认为是比特币和加密货币价格的强势月份，但由于特朗普总统的贸易战影响，市场遭遇阻碍。根据CoinGlass的数据，过去24小时内超过10亿美元的加密头寸被清算，随着清算的增加，加密货币价格迅速下跌。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此次抛售随着特朗普宣布取消与中国国家主席习近平的会议，以及对中国进口商品实施大幅关税的消息而发生，特朗普警告此举可能会对美国人造成「潜在痛苦」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>分析：市场的暴跌可能是因为地缘政治的短期过度反应。</p><p><br>特朗普的关税警告发布后，中国也随之限制稀土和关键矿物的出口，进一步加剧了两大经济体之间的紧张关系。到了周末，中国似乎开始软化立场，分析师指出，市场的暴跌可能是因为地缘政治的短期过度反应。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在经历了这次暴跌后，比特币的价格已回升至115,100美元，涨幅达5%；以太坊则上涨10.5%，至4,138美元。主要替代币如Solana、BNB和Dogecoin的涨幅分别为12%、16.5%和11.4%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Merkle Tree Capital行政总裁Dean Serroni表示：「此次反弹是典型的缓解反弹。以太坊的11%涨幅是市场对特朗普关税突发消息的过度反应后的短期回补。」他指出，随着衍生品市场开仓压力的重置，卖压相对「薄弱」，这也促进了价格回升。 Serroni补充道：「此次市场暴跌是一种地缘政治的过度反应，而非结构性破裂。」</p>

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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>上周市場經歷了一次因貿易衝擊而引發的拋售，成「加密歷史上最大單日清算」，隨後價格開始逐漸回升。周五，比特幣的價格在約七小時內從121,000美元下滑至109,000美元，抹去早前「<a href="https://cftime.io/uptober-effect/">十月回升</a>」所帶來的漲幅。根據CoinGecko的數據，以太坊的價格降至3,686美元，而Solana在173美元以上徘徊。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>即加入</strong><a href="https://t.me/+l--9PJpFdIgxOTk9"><strong>CFTime TG 討論區</strong></a><strong>！想掌握最新加密市場動態與 AI 新聞與資訊，更能隨時獲得免費 web 3入場券！</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>加密歷史上最大單日清算 一小時內清算了近70億美元的資金</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此次交易引發了一場「清算的閃崩」，在一小時內清算了近70億美元的資金，其中55億美元來自多頭頭寸。根據鏈上選項平台Dervie的研究負責人Sean Dawson表示，周五的清算總額接近200億美元，主要由167億美元的多頭位置組成，這標誌著「加密歷史上最大單日清算」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>股市同樣受到影響，納斯達克指數下跌3.6%，標準普爾500指數下降2.7%，而道瓊斯工業平均指數則下跌1.9%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>十月原本被認為是比特幣和加密貨幣價格的強勢月份，但由於特朗普總統的貿易戰影響，市場遭遇阻礙。根據CoinGlass的數據，過去24小時內超過10億美元的加密頭寸被清算，隨著清算的增加，加密貨幣價格迅速下跌。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此次拋售隨著特朗普宣布取消與中國國家主席習近平的會議，以及對中國進口商品實施大幅關稅的消息而發生，特朗普警告此舉可能會對美國人造成「潛在痛苦」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>分析：市場的暴跌可能是因為地緣政治的短期過度反應。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>特朗普的關稅警告發布後，中國也隨之限制稀土和關鍵礦物的出口，進一步加劇了兩大經濟體之間的緊張關係。到了週末，<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-its-rare-earth-export-controls-are-legitimate-2025-10-12/">中國似乎開始軟化立場</a>，分析師指出，市場的暴跌可能是因為地緣政治的短期過度反應。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在經歷了這次暴跌後，比特幣的價格已回升至115,100美元，漲幅達5%；以太坊則上漲10.5%，至4,138美元。主要替代幣如Solana、BNB和Dogecoin的漲幅分別為12%、16.5%和11.4%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Merkle Tree Capital行政總裁Dean Serroni表示：「此次反彈是典型的緩解反彈。以太坊的11%漲幅是市場對特朗普關稅突發消息的過度反應後的短期回補。」他指出，隨著衍生品市場開倉壓力的重置，賣壓相對「薄弱」，這也促進了價格回升。Serroni補充道：「此次市場暴跌是一種地緣政治的過度反應，而非結構性破裂。」</p>

The largest single-day liquidation in crypto history

比特币与以太坊在「加密历史上最大单日清算」后回升

比特幣與以太坊在「加密歷史上最大單日清算」後回升

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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Recently, Bitcoin surged past $125,000 during Asian trading hours, marking a new historical high and signaling the continuation of the market's upward momentum into October. Reports indicate that the cryptocurrency recorded an approximate increase of 2.7% on that day, reaching around $125,245, surpassing its previous peak of $124,480 recorded in August.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Institutional Inflows and Political Signals</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The report highlights that the massive demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) listed in the U.S. is a key driving force behind this recent surge. The weekly net inflows into these funds are reported to be around $3.24 billion.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Investors and traders also believe that the weakening of the dollar and a strong broader stock market are contributing factors to the rising prices. Some analysts attribute the shift in market sentiment to policy signals under President Trump and concerns over a potential government shutdown, prompting buyers to turn to alternative value storage assets.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Traders Confirm Uptober Effect</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The term "Uptober"—a nickname for October that typically describes bullish market conditions—has resurfaced this year. Traders noted that after Bitcoin successfully converted the $120,000 level into a technical support point, the subsequent technical breakout added upward momentum. However, the report shows that Bitcoin subsequently pulled back, reflecting a phenomenon where some market participants took profits after a rapid buying spree.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Tightening Exchange Liquidity</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>According to the report, the amount of Bitcoin held in centralized exchanges has decreased, indicating that the supply available for immediate sale in the market has diminished as buyers enter.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>This tightening of supply, combined with a new wave of ETF demand, creates conditions for more significant price volatility when capital flows surge. Market observers warn that this pattern could amplify both upward and downward price movements.</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>Analysts Focus on Resistance and Targets</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Options trading desks and chart analysts are closely monitoring recent resistance levels above the current highs. Meanwhile, some technical analysis scenarios point to larger targets in the coming months—some market participants have suggested figures of $135,000 or even higher, although these remain predictions rather than certainties. Volume and fund flows will be key in determining whether this rally can continue or cool off.</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>Significance of the Rally and Subsequent Risks</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Observers believe this rally is significant as it brings Bitcoin back into discussions alongside major asset classes. By certain metrics, the token's market capitalization once surpassed that of Amazon, placing it among the world's largest assets by market value. However, volatility remains high. A sharp reversal, policy shifts, or sudden changes in ETF fund flows could quickly alter the current situation.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>In summary, the combination of institutional buying, seasonal momentum, and macro factors has propelled Bitcoin to new highs. This rally has attracted a new wave of investor attention, but it also carries inherent risks of substantial price volatility. The market will closely monitor fund flows, the U.S. dollar's performance, and any policy signals from Washington for clues on the next developments.</p>

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</div></div><p>Uptober效应下，比特币日前在亚洲交易时段（ Asian hours ）冲破 $125,000 美元（下同），创下新的历史高位，标志着市场升势成功延续至 十月。据报道，该加密货币当日录得约 2.7% 的升幅，价格达到约 $125,245 ，超越了其先前于八月 录得的 $124,480 峰值。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>机构资金涌入与政治信号</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>报告指出，美国 上市的现货 Bitcoin ETFs（比特币交易所买卖基金）涌现的庞大需求浪潮，是推动此轮升势的关键动力。这些基金的每周资金净流入额据报约为 $3.24 billion 。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>投资者和交易员亦认为，美元走弱及更广泛的股市强劲，亦是推高价格的因素。部分分析将市场情绪的转变，归因于 美国总统特朗普领导下的政策信号，以及对美国政府可能停摆的担忧，促使买家转向替代性的价值储存资产。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>交易员确认Uptober效应</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「Uptober」——这个形容 十月 通常看涨行情的昵称——今年再度出现。交易员表示，在比特币成功将 $120,000 关口转化为技术性支撑位后，随后的技术性突破为其增添了上涨动能。但报告显示， 比特币随后有所回落，这反映了部分市场在快速买入后，随即出现获利了结的现象。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>交易所流动性收紧</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根据报告，存放在中心化交易所的比特币数量有所下降，这意味着当买家进场时，市场上可即时抛售的供应量减少。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>供应收紧，加上新一轮的 ETF 需求，为资金流激增时价格带来更剧烈的波动创造了条件。市场观察家警告，这种模式可能会同步放大价格的上涨和下跌幅度。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>分析师关注阻力与目标</h3><p>期权 交易柜台和图表分析师正关注当前高位上方的近期阻力水平。同时，一些技术分析情景指向未来数月更大的目标——部分市场参与者提出了 $135,000 甚至更高的数字，尽管这些仍属预测而非确定性结果。成交量（ Volume ）和基金流向（ fund flows ）将是决定此轮涨势能否持续或降温的关键。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>升势意义与后续风险</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>观察家认为，此轮升势意义重大，因为它使比特币重新回到与主要资产类别并驾齐驱的讨论中。在某些衡量标准上，该代币的市值一度超越了 Amazon，跻身全球最大市值资产之列。然而，波动性（ volatility ）依然高企。急剧逆转、政策转变或 ETF 资金流向的突然变化，都可能迅速改变当前局面。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>综合而言，机构买盘、季节性动力和宏观因素的结合，共同将 Bitcoin 推向新高。这次涨势吸引了投资者的新一轮关注，但同时也伴随着大幅价格波动的固有风险。市场将密切关注资金流向、 US dollar 走势，以及来自华盛顿的任何政策信号，以寻找下一步发展的线索。</p>

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</div></div><p><a href="https://cftime.io/uptober-2024/">Uptober</a>效應下，<strong>比特幣</strong>日前在亞洲交易時段（ <strong>Asian hours</strong> ）衝破 $125,000 美元（下同），<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bitcoin-hits-all-time-high-above-125000-2025-10-05/">創下新的歷史高位</a>，標誌著市場升勢成功延續至 十月。據報道，該加密貨幣當日錄得約 2.7% 的升幅，價格達到約 $125,245 ，超越了其先前於八月 錄得的 $124,480 峰值。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>機構資金湧入與政治信號</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>報告指出，美國 上市的現貨 <strong>Bitcoin ETFs</strong>（比特幣交易所買賣基金）湧現的龐大需求浪潮，是推動此輪升勢的關鍵動力。這些基金的每週資金淨流入額據報約為 $3.24 billion 。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>投資者和交易員亦認為，美元走弱及更廣泛的股市強勁，亦是推高價格的因素。部分分析將市場情緒的轉變，歸因於 美國總統特朗普領導下的政策信號，以及對美國政府可能停擺的擔憂，促使買家轉向替代性的價值儲存資產。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>交易員確認Uptober效應</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>「<strong>Uptober</strong>」——這個形容 十月 通常看漲行情的暱稱——今年再度出現。交易員表示，在比特幣成功將 $120,000 關口轉化為技術性支撐位後，隨後的技術性突破為其增添了上漲動能。但報告顯示， 比特幣隨後有所回落，這反映了部分市場在快速買入後，隨即出現獲利了結的現象。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>交易所流動性收緊</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根據報告，存放在中心化交易所的比特幣數量有所下降，這意味著當買家進場時，市場上可即時拋售的供應量減少。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>供應收緊，加上新一輪的 <strong>ETF</strong> 需求，為資金流激增時價格帶來更劇烈的波動創造了條件。市場觀察家警告，這種模式可能會同步放大價格的上漲和下跌幅度。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>分析師關注阻力與目標</h3><p>期權 交易櫃台和圖表分析師正關注當前高位上方的近期阻力水平。同時，一些技術分析情景指向未來數月更大的目標——部分市場參與者提出了 $135,000 甚至更高的數字，儘管這些仍屬預測而非確定性結果。成交量（ <strong>Volume</strong> ）和基金流向（ <strong>fund flows</strong> ）將是決定此輪漲勢能否持續或降溫的關鍵。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>升勢意義與後續風險</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>觀察家認為，此輪升勢意義重大，因為它使比特幣重新回到與主要資產類別並駕齊驅的討論中。在某些衡量標準上，該代幣的市值一度超越了 <strong>Amazon</strong>，躋身全球最大市值資產之列。然而，波動性（ <strong>volatility</strong> ）依然高企。急劇逆轉、政策轉變或 <strong>ETF</strong> 資金流向的突然變化，都可能迅速改變當前局面。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>綜合而言，機構買盤、季節性動力和宏觀因素的結合，共同將 <strong>Bitcoin</strong> 推向新高。這次漲勢吸引了投資者的新一輪關注，但同時也伴隨著大幅價格波動的固有風險。市場將密切關注資金流向、 US dollar 走勢，以及來自華盛頓的任何政策信號，以尋找下一步發展的線索。</p>

The Uptober effect is showing!

Uptober效应发威！比特币升穿12.5万 机构ETF每周狂吸32.4亿美元成最大推力

Uptober效應發威！比特幣升穿12.5萬 機構ETF每週狂吸32.4億美元成最大推力

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</div></div><p>Fidelity Digital Assets has released a new research report indicating that Bitcoin is entering a new era dominated by scarcity. The report predicts that by the end of 2025, over 28% of the total Bitcoin supply (21 million coins) will be in a non-liquid state due to long-term holding and corporate ownership, meaning that Bitcoin will be locked away for an extended period.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Transition from Abundant Supply to Scarcity</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The report's author, Zack Wainwright, notes that as 95% of the total Bitcoin supply approaches circulation, the market is transitioning from an abundant supply to a scarce supply. The report identifies two main factors contributing to Bitcoin's non-liquidity: first, long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for more than seven years; and second, publicly traded companies holding at least 1,000 BTC. Wainwright estimates that these two categories of holders will collectively own over 6 million Bitcoins by the end of 2025.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Currently, publicly traded companies hold over 830,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 4% of the circulating supply, with 97% concentrated in companies holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins. However, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries, the combined holdings of public and private companies may be as high as 1.3 million Bitcoins, significantly exceeding the aforementioned figure.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Increasing Trend of Long-term Holders</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>By combining data from long-term holders and corporate holders, the report shows that the trend of Bitcoin holding is accelerating, with trading volumes relatively decreasing. Since the third quarter of 2024, publicly traded companies have actively allocated Bitcoin, further increasing the non-liquid supply.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Forecast for Non-liquid Assets by 2032</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Looking ahead, the Fidelity report predicts that by 2032, nearly 42% of the current circulating supply (over 8.3 million BTC) will become non-liquid assets. The report concludes that as more entities hold Bitcoin long-term, its scarcity will increasingly become a focal point of market attention. It also mentions that if the trend of national adoption of Bitcoin strengthens and the regulatory environment continues to evolve, the growth rate of non-liquid supply may be even more pronounced.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Although the report does not explicitly mention it, a similar trend is likely unfolding in the Ethereum market. Digital asset wallets have accumulated over 4% of the total Ethereum supply in just a few months, and since the launch of Ethereum ETFs last year, their absorption has exceeded 5.5% of the total supply.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>This report highlights significant changes in the Bitcoin market structure and the growing willingness of institutional investors to hold Bitcoin long-term, introducing new variables for Bitcoin's price movements and market supply-demand dynamics.</p>

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</div></div><p>富达数位资产（Fidelity Digital Assets）发表最新研究报告，指出比特币正迈向一个由稀缺性主导的新时代。报告预测，到2025年底，超过28%的比特币总供应量（2100万枚）将因长期持有及企业级持有而呈现非流动性状态，即比特币将被长期锁死。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>比特币将被长期锁死 「供应充裕到供应稀缺的转变」</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>报告作者Zack Wainwright指出，随着95%的比特币总供应量即将进入流通市场，市场正经历从供应充裕到供应稀缺的转变。 该报告将导致比特币非流动性的主要因素归纳为两类：一、持有时间超过七年的长期持有者；二、持有至少1,000枚BTC的上市公司。 Wainwright估计，这两类持有者到2025年底将合计持有超过600万枚比特币。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>目前，上市公司已持有超过83万枚比特币，占流通供应量的4%，其中97%集中在持有量超过1,000枚比特币的企业手中。 然而，若参考BitcoinTreasuries的数据，上市公司和非上市公司合计持有量可能高达130万枚比特币，远超前述数字。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>将长期持有者与企业持有者数据结合分析，报告显示比特币的持有趋势正在加速，交易量相对减少。 自2024年第三季度以来，上市公司财库积极配置比特币，进一步推高了非流动性供应量。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>料到2032年近42%的当前流通供应量 将成为非流动性资产</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>展望未来，富达报告预测，到2032年，近42%的当前流通供应量（超过830万枚BTC）将成为非流动性资产。 报告结论指出，随着更多实体长期持有比特币，其稀缺性将日益成为市场关注的焦点。 报告同时提到，若国家层面采用比特币的趋势加强，以及监管环境持续演变，则非流动性供应量的增长速度可能更加显著。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>报告虽未明确提及，但类似趋势很可能也正在以太坊（Ethereum）市场上演。 数位资产库在短短几个月内已累积超过4%的以太坊总供应量，而自去年以太坊ETF推出以来，其吸纳量更已超过总供应量的5.5%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>报告突显了比特币市场结构的重大变化，以及日益增长的机构投资者对比特币的长期持有意愿，为比特币的价格走势和市场供需关系带来新的变数。</p>

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</div></div><p>富達數位資產（Fidelity Digital Assets）<a href="https://fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/bitcoins-illiquid-supply-new-era-investors">發表最新研究報告</a>，指出比特幣正邁向一個由稀缺性主導的新時代。報告預測，到2025年底，超過28%的比特幣總供應量（2100萬枚）將因長期持有及企業級持有而呈現非流動性狀態，即比特幣將被長期鎖死。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>比特幣將被長期鎖死 「供應充裕到供應稀缺的轉變」</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>報告作者Zack Wainwright指出，隨著95%的比特幣總供應量即將進入流通市場，市場正經歷從供應充裕到供應稀缺的轉變。 該報告將導致比特幣非流動性的主要因素歸納為兩類：一、持有時間超過七年的長期持有者；二、持有至少1,000枚BTC的上市公司。 Wainwright估計，這兩類持有者到2025年底將合計持有超過600萬枚比特幣。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>目前，上市公司已持有超過83萬枚比特幣，佔流通供應量的4%，其中97%集中在持有量超過1,000枚比特幣的企業手中。 然而，若參考<a href="https://bitcointreasuries.net/">BitcoinTreasuries的數據</a>，上市公司和非上市公司合計持有量可能高達130萬枚比特幣，遠超前述數字。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>將長期持有者與企業持有者數據結合分析，報告顯示比特幣的持有趨勢正在加速，交易量相對減少。 自2024年第三季度以來，上市公司財庫積極配置比特幣，進一步推高了非流動性供應量。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>料到2032年近42%的當前流通供應量 將成為非流動性資產</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>展望未來，富達報告預測，到2032年，近42%的當前<a href="https://cftime.io/bitcoin-accumulation-plan/">流通供應量</a>（超過830萬枚BTC）將成為非流動性資產。 報告結論指出，隨著更多實體長期持有比特幣，其稀缺性將日益成為市場關注的焦點。 報告同時提到，若國家層面採用比特幣的趨勢加強，以及監管環境持續演變，則非流動性供應量的增長速度可能更加顯著。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>報告雖未明確提及，但類似趨勢很可能也正在以太坊（Ethereum）市場上演。 數位資產庫在短短幾個月內已累積超過4%的以太坊總供應量，而自去年以太坊ETF推出以來，其吸納量更已超過總供應量的5.5%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>報告突顯了比特幣市場結構的重大變化，以及日益增長的機構投資者對比特幣的長期持有意願，為比特幣的價格走勢和市場供需關係帶來新的變數。</p>

Fidelity warns: Over 28% of Bitcoin will be locked up by the end of the year

富达警告：年底超过28%比特币将被长期锁死 稀缺性新时代正式来临

富達警告：年底超過28%比特幣將被長期鎖死 稀缺性新時代正式來臨

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</div></div><p>The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has announced a relaxation of capital requirements for financial institutions holding specific digital assets. The HKMA's easing of capital requirements for banks holding Bitcoin is viewed as a strategic move to solidify Hong Kong's status as an international financial center and actively develop the cryptocurrency industry. The HKMA is also implementing a new regulatory policy manual module, CRP-1, which clearly categorizes virtual assets under the Basel Committee's global capital standards and will take effect on January 1, 2026.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Easing of Capital Requirements Originating from August Notification</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>This new regulation stems from a notification issued by the HKMA in mid-August, confirming that the international Basel standards will be implemented in Hong Kong in early 2026. The authority has circulated a consultation document to the local banking sector outlining the specifics of how it will implement the Basel standards within Hong Kong's regulatory framework.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Notably, the new regulation adopts a differentiated approach for cryptocurrencies operating on unlicensed blockchains, such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). If issuers can effectively implement risk management and mitigation measures, their capital requirements may be reduced. This measure will distinguish tokenized assets and stablecoins from unendorsed cryptocurrencies, moving away from treating all digital assets uniformly.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>According to the Basel Agreement, digital assets originally bore a risk weight of 1250%, meaning that banks needed to hold capital equivalent to or exceeding 100% of the digital asset's value as a loss buffer, making participation in the virtual asset business economically unfeasible for banks. The new regulation is expected to lower this threshold.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Initial Approval for a Limited Number of Stablecoin Issuers</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The HKMA indicated that initially, only a limited number of stablecoin issuers would be approved, allowing them ample time to prepare for the capital requirements set to take effect early next year. Over the years, Hong Kong has established a comprehensive regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, encompassing licensing systems for cryptocurrency exchanges and stablecoin issuers. The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) also updated its guidelines in August, requiring licensed cryptocurrency platforms to enhance customer fund custody measures and detailing new requirements for platform custody practices in response to vulnerabilities and customer losses exposed in several overseas incidents. These new requirements include responsibilities for senior management, cold wallet infrastructure, real-time threat monitoring, and third-party wallet oversight.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>For stablecoin issuers, the HKMA's new regulations require them to hold a license and issue stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar, maintaining a minimum capital of HKD 25 million, HKD 3 million in liquidity, and sufficient additional liquidity to cover at least 12 months of operating expenses. Stablecoin holders can redeem assets at face value within one business day, and issuers are prohibited from imposing unreasonable fees or conditions on redemption requests.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Issuers operating regulated stablecoin activities without permission will face fines of up to HKD 5 million and imprisonment for up to seven years, along with daily fines of HKD 100,000 until the violations cease. This series of measures demonstrates the Hong Kong government's commitment to developing the cryptocurrency industry while emphasizing risk management and regulatory transparency.</p>

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</div></div><p>香港金融管理局（HKMA）宣布放宽持有特定数位资产的金融机构资本要求。金管局放宽香港银行持有比特币资本要求，被视为香港巩固其国际金融中心地位，积极发展加密货币产业的最新策略。 金管局同时推行新的监管政策手册模组CRP-1，明确规范虚拟资产在巴塞尔银行监管委员会全球资本标准下的分类，并将在2026年1月1日起生效。</p><p>即加入CFTime TG讨论区！想掌握最新加密市场动态与AI新闻与资讯，更能随时获得免费web 3入场券！</p><p>金管局放宽香港银行持有比特币资本要求源于金管局在8月中旬发布的通知</p><p>这项新规定，源于金管局在8月中旬发布的通知，确认国际巴塞尔标准将于2026年初在香港实施。该局已向本地银行业发放咨询文件，详述其在香港监管框架下实施巴塞尔标准的具体方法。</p><p>值得注意的是，新规定针对在无许可区块链上运作的加密资产，例如比特币（BTC）和以太币（ETH），采取差异化处理。 若发行者能有效执行风险管理及缓解措施，则其资本要求可望降低。 这项措施将符合稳定币框架的代币化资产和稳定币，与未经背书的加密货币区隔开来，不再将所有数位资产一概而论。</p><p>根据巴塞尔协议，数位资产原本需承受1250%的风险权重，意味着银行需持有等值于或超过数位资产价值100%的资本作为损失缓冲，此举曾使银行参与虚拟资产业务变得不经济。 新规定则有望降低此门槛。</p><p>初期将仅批准少数稳定币发行者</p><p>金管局表示，初期将仅批准少数稳定币发行者，让其有充足时间准备，应对即将在明年初生效的资本要求。 多年来，香港已建立完善的加密货币监管架构，涵盖加密货币交易所及稳定币发行者的发牌制度。 香港证券及期货事务监察委员会（SFC）也在8月更新指引，要求持牌加密货币平台加强客户资金托管措施，并针对海外多起事件中暴露的漏洞及客户损失，详细说明其对平台托管实务的新要求，包括高级管理人员的责任、冷钱包基础设施、实时威胁监控及第三方钱包监督。</p><p>针对稳定币发行者，金管局的新规定要求其持有牌照，发行以港元为基准维持稳定价值的稳定币，并维持不少于2,500万港元的股本、300万港元的流动资金，以及足以应付至少12个月营运费用的额外流动资金。 稳定币持有人可在一个营业日内按面值赎回资产，发行者也被禁止对赎回请求施加不合理的费用或条件。</p><p>未经许可经营受规管稳定币活动的发行者，将面临最高500万港元的罚款及最高七年的监禁，并每日处以10万港元的罚款，直至违规行为停止。 此一系列措施，展现香港政府在发展加密货币产业的同时，也着重风险管理及监管透明度的决心。</p>

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</div></div><p>香港金融管理局（HKMA）宣佈放寬持有特定數碼資產的金融機構資本要求。金管局放寬香港銀行持有比特幣資本要求，被視為香港鞏固其國際金融中心地位，積極發展加密貨幣產業的最新策略。 金管局同時推行新的監管政策手冊模組CRP-1，明確規範虛擬資產在巴塞爾銀行監管委員會全球資本標準下的分類，並將於2026年1月1日起生效。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>金管局放寬香港銀行持有比特幣資本要求 源於金管局在8月中旬發布的通知</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此項新規定，<a href="https://brdr.hkma.gov.hk/eng/doc-ldg/docId/getPdf/20250815-1-EN/20250815-1-EN.pdf">源於金管局在8月中旬發布的通知</a>，確認國際巴塞爾標準將於<a href="https://cftime.io/basel-standards-implemented-in-hong-kong/"><i>2026年初在香港實施</i></a>。該局已向本地銀行業發放諮詢文件，詳述其在香港監管框架下實施巴塞爾標準的具體方法。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>值得注意的是，新規定針對在無許可區塊鏈上運作的加密資產，例如比特幣（BTC）和以太幣（ETH），採取差異化處理。 若發行者能有效執行風險管理及緩解措施，則其資本要求可望降低。 這項措施將符合穩定幣框架的代幣化資產和穩定幣，與未經背書的加密貨幣區隔開來，不再將所有數碼資產一概而論。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根據巴塞爾協議，數碼資產原本需承受1250%的風險權重，意味著銀行需持有等值於或超過數碼資產價值100%的資本作為損失緩衝，此舉曾使銀行參與虛擬資產業務變得不經濟。 新規定則有望降低此門檻。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>初期將僅批准少數穩定幣發行者</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>金管局表示，初期將僅批准少數穩定幣發行者，讓其有充足時間準備，應對即將於明年初生效的資本要求。 多年來，香港已建立完善的加密貨幣監管架構，涵蓋加密貨幣交易所及穩定幣發行者的發牌制度。 香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會（SFC）<a href="https://apps.sfc.hk/edistributionWeb/gateway/EN/news-and-announcements/news/doc?refNo=25PR124">亦於8月更新指引</a>，要求持牌加密貨幣平台加強客戶資金託管措施，並針對海外多起事件中暴露的漏洞及客戶損失，詳細說明其對平台託管實務的新要求，包括高級管理人員的責任、冷錢包基礎設施、實時威脅監控及第三方錢包監督。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>針對穩定幣發行者，<a href="https://www.hkma.gov.hk/eng/key-functions/international-financial-centre/stablecoin-issuers">金管局的新規定要求其持有牌照</a>，發行以港元為基準維持穩定價值的穩定幣，並維持不少於2,500萬港元的股本、300萬港元的流動資金，以及足以應付至少12個月營運費用的額外流動資金。 穩定幣持有人可於一個營業日內按面值贖回資產，發行者亦被禁止對贖回請求施加不合理的費用或條件。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>未經許可經營受規管穩定幣活動的發行者，將面臨最高500萬港元的罰款及最高七年的監禁，並每日處以10萬港元的罰款，直至違規行為停止。 此一系列措施，展現香港政府在發展加密貨幣產業的同時，亦著重風險管理及監管透明度的決心。</p>

HKMA relaxes capital requirements for HK banks holding Bitcoin

金管局放宽香港银行持有比特币资本要求 抢攻全球加密金融霸主地位

金管局放寬香港銀行持有比特幣資本要求 搶攻全球加密金融霸主地位

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</div></div><p>BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, has made a significant change in its cryptocurrency investment strategy this year, increasing its holdings in Ethereum (ETH) at a pace far exceeding that of Bitcoin (BTC). This shift has sent shockwaves through the crypto market and provides important insights for institutional investors' future strategies.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>According to Finbold's analysis of Arkham Intel wallet cluster data, as of September 9, 2025, BlackRock's Bitcoin holdings amount to 732,384 BTC, valued at approximately $81.7 billion based on a price of $111,513 at that time. In contrast, its Ethereum holdings have reached an impressive 3.74 million ETH, valued at around $16 billion (at a price of $4,301).</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Compared to January 1, 2025, BlackRock's Bitcoin holdings have increased by over 30%. However, the growth in Ethereum holdings is even more remarkable, having increased by 2.5 times. In other words, in terms of percentage growth, BlackRock's accumulation of Ethereum is 7.6 times that of Bitcoin.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Despite both Ethereum and Bitcoin prices rising during this period, the increase in token holdings far outpaces the price growth, indicating that BlackRock's actions are not merely reactive to market cap changes but represent proactive net purchases.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Shift in Portfolio Allocation: From 6.6% to 17.2%</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>This strategic adjustment has significantly altered the composition of BlackRock's cryptocurrency investment portfolio. At the beginning of the year, Ethereum accounted for just 6.6% of its portfolio ($3.59 billion out of $54.83 billion). As of September 2, this allocation has risen to 17.2% ($16.58 billion out of $96.44 billion), an increase of 10.6 percentage points.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The massive accumulation by BlackRock is likely to have a considerable impact on the market. Firstly, the increase of 2.71 million Ethereum relative to its total circulating supply represents a substantial amount of stable buying pressure. Secondly, this signals that institutional investors are reassessing their cryptocurrency strategies, gradually extending their investments beyond Bitcoin and actively engaging with the Ethereum ecosystem. This aligns with the increasing maturity of Ethereum-related products and capital flows.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>BlackRock's actions indicate a growing confidence among institutional investors in Ethereum, potentially leading to further institutional participation and driving both the price and market position of Ethereum.</p>

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</div></div><p>全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德今年以来对加密货币的投资策略出现重大转变，其增持以太币(ETH)的速度远超比特币(BTC)，贝莱德投资策略，为加密货币市场投下震撼弹，也为机构投资者的未来布局提供了重要参考。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根据Finbold分析Arkham Intel钱包集群数据显示，截至2025年9月9日，贝莱德的比特币持有量为732,384个BTC，按当时价格111,513美元计算，价值约817亿美元；而以太币持有量则达到惊人的374万个ETH，价值约160亿美元（当时价格4,301美元）。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>与2025年1月1日相比，贝莱德的比特币持有量增加了y逾三成；但以太币持有量增长则更加显著，增加2.5倍， 换言之，以百分比增长计算，贝莱德增持以太币的速度是比特币的7.6倍。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>尽管以太币和比特币价格在测量期间均有所上涨，但代币持有量的增长幅度远远超过价格涨幅，显示贝莱德的增持行为并非仅仅是市值变动的结果，而是积极的净购买行为。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>贝莱德投资策略 占比由6.6%跃升至17.2%</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>这种策略性调整也明显改变了贝莱德加密货币投资组合的结构。年初，以太币在其投资组合中仅占6.6%（35.9亿美元/548.3亿美元），但截至9月2日，其占比已跃升至17.2%（165.8亿美元/964.4亿美元），增长了10.6个百分点。</p><p>贝莱德的巨额增持对市场的影响不容小觑。首先，271万个以太币的增长规模相对于以太币的总流通量而言相当可观，将为市场注入大量的稳定买盘。其次，这也发出了强烈的信号，表明机构投资者正在重新评估其加密货币投资策略，逐步将投资范围扩展至比特币之外，并积极布局以太坊生态系统，这与以太坊相关产品和资金流的日益成熟相呼应。 贝莱德的行动，预示着机构投资者对以太币的信心与日俱增，并可能引领更多机构跟进，进一步推动以太币的价格和市场地位。</p>

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</div></div><p>全球最大資產管理公司<a href="https://cftime.io/usd-hegemony-is-under-threat/">貝萊德</a>今年以來對加密貨幣的投資策略出現重大轉變，其增持以太幣(ETH)的速度遠超比特幣(BTC)，貝萊德投資策略，為加密貨幣市場投下震撼彈，也為機構投資者的未來佈局提供了重要參考。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>即加入</strong><a href="https://t.me/+l--9PJpFdIgxOTk9"><strong>CFTime TG 討論區</strong></a><strong>！想掌握最新加密市場動態與 AI 新聞與資訊，更能隨時獲得免費 web 3入場券！</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根據Finbold分析Arkham Intel錢包集群數據顯示，截至2025年9月9日，貝萊德的比特幣持有量為732,384個BTC，以當時價格111,513美元計算，價值約817億美元；而以太幣持有量則達到驚人的374萬個ETH，價值約1601億美元（當時價格約1401萬美元）。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>與2025年1月1日相比，貝萊德的比特幣持有量增加了y逾三成；但以太幣持有量增長則更加顯著，增加2.5倍， 換言之，以百分比增長計算，貝萊德增持以太幣的速度是比特幣的7.6倍。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>儘管以太幣和比特幣價格在測量期間均有所上漲，但代幣持有量的增長幅度遠遠超過價格漲幅，顯示貝萊德的增持行為並非僅僅是市值變動的結果，而是積極的淨購買行為。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>貝萊德投資策略 佔比由6.6%躍升至17.2%</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>這種策略性調整也明顯改變了貝萊德加密貨幣投資組合的結構。年初，以太幣在其投資組合中僅佔6.6%（35.9億美元/548.3億美元），但截至9月2日，其佔比已躍升至17.2%（165.8億美元/964.4億美元），增長了10.6個百分點。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>貝萊德的巨額增持對市場的影響不容小覷。首先，271萬個以太幣的增長規模相對於以太幣的總流通量而言相當可觀，將為市場注入大量的穩定買盤。其次，這也發出了強烈的信號，表明機構投資者正在重新評估其加密貨幣投資策略，逐步將投資範圍擴展至比特幣之外，並積極布局以太坊生態系統，這與以太坊相關產品和資金流的日益成熟相呼應。 貝萊德的行動，預示著機構投資者對以太幣的信心與日俱增，並可能引領更多機構跟進，進一步推動以太幣的價格和市場地位。</p>

BlackRock's investment strategy shifts from Bitcoin to Ethereum

贝莱德投资策略由比特币转向以太坊 数据揭秘惊人增持策略

貝萊德投資策略由比特幣轉向以太坊 數據揭秘驚人增持策略

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</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>ApeX Protocol has released a data analysis ranking the most influential figures in cryptocurrency, with Tesla CEO Elon Musk surpassing Donald Trump to become the most influential person in the field. His $2 billion in cryptocurrency assets and 221.2 million social media followers far exceed those of other competitors.</p><p>The report notes that Trump ranks second with $1.34 million in cryptocurrency assets and 142.7 million followers. Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele comes in third with $8.44 million in cryptocurrency assets and 17.6 million followers. It’s worth mentioning that there is only one woman in the top ten, Senator Cynthia Lummis, as well as one non-U.S. leader, Bukele.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/image-12-1024x397.png" alt=""></figure><h3>&nbsp;</h3><p>The influence index from ApeX Protocol shows that fame and follower count are significantly more important than mere wealth. Musk's leading position is based on his substantial cryptocurrency assets and expansive social media influence. Trump follows closely, with his influence primarily stemming from his active promotion of pro-cryptocurrency policies.</p><p>President Bukele maintains a top-three position due to his early adoption of Bitcoin and ongoing social media engagement. Following him are former presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and several U.S. Congress members who actively advocate for pro-cryptocurrency policies.</p><h3>Musk’s Cryptocurrency Strategy: A Blend of Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Political Strategy</h3><p>Musk actively enhances his influence in the cryptocurrency space. On July 7, 2025, he announced the formation of a new "American Party" and confirmed on the X platform that the party would "embrace Bitcoin," bluntly stating that "fiat currency is hopeless."</p><p>Musk holds a significant amount of Bitcoin through Tesla: in early 2021, Tesla purchased $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin and currently holds approximately 11,509 BTC (valued at about $1.26 billion). His public support for Dogecoin has also consistently influenced market fluctuations; for example, after announcing the formation of his political party, Dogecoin’s price rose by 5%. He frequently tweets about mysterious meme coins and payment hints, with past posts like "$Doge" causing significant price spikes or drops.</p><p>Even the feud between Musk and Trump relates to cryptocurrency: on July 1, Trump jokingly stated on social media that "DOGE should take a close look at Musk's company," highlighting how cryptocurrency has become a focal point in their social media war.</p><h3>Trump’s Cryptocurrency Plans: Bitcoin Reserves and Active Policy Promotion</h3><p>Ranking second, Trump actively promotes pro-cryptocurrency policies. On his first day back in office, he signed an executive order to establish a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and digital asset reserves, aimed at using seized cryptocurrencies as reserve assets and pledging to make the U.S. the "crypto capital of the world." His plan proposed in March 2025 sparked a market rebound, with Bitcoin prices soaring 10% to reach $94,000—leading to increases in Cardano, Solana, and Ripple as well, as he listed them among reserve assets.</p><p>In early March, Trump hosted a White House cryptocurrency summit to reverse the previous administration's crackdown and lobbied Congress to pass pro-cryptocurrency legislation, publicly urging Republicans in mid-July to support a landmark cryptocurrency bill, stating on social media: "The House will soon vote on a bill that makes America the undisputed leader in digital assets—digital assets are the future."</p><p>However, this plan has faced resistance within the Republican Party: a small group of conservative House members briefly stalled the debate on Trump-supported cryptocurrency bills (the GENIUS Act and related measures). Nevertheless, Trump's administration's strong stance in favor of cryptocurrency keeps him at the forefront of the influence ranking. His nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services, along with Musk being viewed as a potential SEC chair, further solidifies this influence.</p><h3>Influence of Other Political Figures and Independents</h3><p>In addition to Musk and Trump, the report mentions other influential figures, such as Salvadoran President Bukele, whose early Bitcoin adoption and ongoing social media interaction maintain his influence. U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis, as chair of the Senate Digital Assets Subcommittee, actively promotes pro-cryptocurrency legislation, such as reintroducing the "Bitcoin Bill" in March 2025 and assisting with the GENIUS stablecoin bill, securing her position on the list. Vice President J.D. Vance and Texas Congressman Ted Cruz also rank highly due to their pro-cryptocurrency policies. Additionally, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s public support for Bitcoin has elevated his influence.</p><h3>The Evolution of Regulation, Legislation, and Influence</h3><p>The regulatory wave of the first half of 2025, along with debates in Congress over cryptocurrency legislation, affects the influence rankings in the cryptocurrency space. Regulatory dynamics in places like Hong Kong, Singapore, and Brazil are also significant. All these political factors impact the influence of individuals who support or appear to support cryptocurrency. For example, the departure of former SEC nominee Jay Clayton paves the way for a pro-cryptocurrency SEC chair as promised by Trump. Progress on the "Bitcoin Bill" and the "GENIUS Act" will further influence the standing of related political figures.</p><p>In conclusion, the current power brokers in the cryptocurrency space are not limited to founders of coins or executives of exchanges but are a mix of tech billionaires, media figures, and politicians who are collectively shaping the future of this field.</p>

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</div></div><p>ApeX Protocol发布的数据分析公布加密货币最具影响力排行榜，特斯拉行政总裁马斯克赢川普，成为加密货币领域最具影响力人物，其20亿美元的加密货币资产和2.212亿社群媒体粉丝数，远超其他竞争者。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>报告指出，川普以134万美元的加密货币资产和1.427亿粉丝数位居第二。萨尔瓦多总统Nayib Bukele则以844万美元的加密货币资产和1,760万粉丝数排名第三。值得关注的是，前十名中仅有一位女性，参议员Cynthia Lummis，以及一位非美国领导人Bukele。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/image-12-1024x397.png" alt=""></figure><p><strong>加密货币最具影响力排行榜。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>ApeX Protocol的影响指数显示，名气和粉丝数的重要性远超单纯的财富。 马斯克的领先地位，正是基于其庞大的加密货币资产和广大的社群媒体影响力。川普紧随其后，其影响力主要来自其积极推动的亲加密货币政策。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>萨尔瓦多总统 Bukele则凭借其早期的比特币采用和持续的社群媒体互动，稳居前三名。 紧随其后的是前总统候选人小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪以及其他几位积极推动亲加密货币政策的美国国会议员。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>加密货币最具影响力排行榜！马斯克的加密货币策略：比特币、狗狗币与政治策略的结合</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>马斯克积极提升在加密货币领域的影响力。 2025年7月7日，他宣布成立一个新的“美国党”，并在X平台上确认该党将“拥抱比特币”，更直言“法币已无望”。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>马斯克透过特斯拉持有大量比特币：2021年初，特斯拉斥资15亿美元购买比特币，至今仍持有约11,509个比特币（价值约12.6亿美元）。他公开支持狗狗币的历史，也持续影响市场波动，例如，在其宣布成立政党后，狗狗币价格上涨了5%。他经常发布关于神秘迷因币和支付暗示的推文，他过去的「$Doge」贴文曾引发价格大幅上涨或下跌。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>甚至马斯克与川普之间的纷争也与加密货币有关：7月1日，川普在其社群媒体上戏谑地表示，「DOGE应该仔细审视马斯克的公司」，突显加密货币已成为他们社群媒体战争的焦点。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>川普的加密货币计画：比特币储备与积极的政策推动</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>排名第二的川普，积极推动亲加密货币政策。去年再次就任美国总统第一天，他就签署行政命令，成立美国战略比特币储备和数位资产储备，旨在将政府查封的加密货币作为储备资产，并誓言让美国成为「世界加密货币之都」。他于2025年3月提出的计划，引发了市场反弹——比特币价格飙升10%，达到94,000美元——卡尔达诺、索拉纳和瑞波币也随之上涨，因为他将它们列入储备名单。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>川普还在3月初召开了白宫加密货币峰会，扭转了前政府的打压行动，并大力游说国会通过亲加密货币的法案，例如在7月中旬公开敦促共和党通过具有里程碑意义的加密货币法案，并在社交媒体上表示：“众议院很快将就一项让美国成为数字资产领域无可争议的领导者的法案进行投票——数字资产是未来投票。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，这项计画也遭遇了共和党内部的阻力：一小部分保守派众议院议员曾 briefly 阻止了川普支持的加密货币法案（GENIUS法案及相关措施）的辩论。尽管如此，川普政府积极支持加密货币的立场，使其在加密货币影响力榜上保持领先地位。 其提名人小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪担任卫生与公共服务部长，以及马斯克被视为潜在的证券交易委员会主席，都强化了这种影响力。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>其他政治人物及独立人物的影响力</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>除了马斯克和川普，报告中还提及其他有影响力的人物，例如萨尔瓦多总统Bukele，他早期的比特币采用和持续的社群媒体互动，使其影响力持续存在。 美国参议员Cynthia Lummis作为参议院数字资产小组委员会主席，积极推动亲加密货币法案，例如在2025年3月重新提出“比特币法案”，以及协助推动GENIUS稳定币法案，也使其在榜单上占有一席之地。 美国副总统J.D. Vance和德州众议员Ted Cruz也因其亲加密货币政策而名列前茅。 此外，小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪作为公开的比特币支持者，其政治立场也提升了他的影响力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>监管、立法与影响力的演变</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>2025年上半年的监管浪潮，以及美国国会关于加密货币法案的辩论，都影响着加密货币领域的影响力排名。 香港、新加坡和巴西等地的监管动态也同样重要。 所有这些政治因素，都会影响那些支持或似乎支持加密货币的人物之影响力。 例如，前证券交易委员会提名人Jay Clayton的离职，为川普承诺的亲加密货币证券交易委员会主席铺平了道路。 「比特币法案」和「GENIUS法案」的进展，也会进一步影响相关政治人物的影响力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>总而言之，目前加密货币领域的权力掮客，并非仅限于币圈创始人或交易所行政总裁，而是科技亿万富翁、媒体人物和政治人物的混合体，他们正共同塑造这个领域的未来。</p>

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</div></div><p><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQk2WeflN9espF70lonMGah905afogRdp7onwfBGA98BSgfgONDcBieQjOOvxIBTmQMA9X3QMY2wiB1/pubhtml#">ApeX Protocol發布的</a>數據分析公佈加密貨幣最具影響力排行榜，特斯拉行政總裁<a href="https://cftime.io/teslas-bitcoin-holdings/">馬斯克</a>贏特朗普，成為加密貨幣領域最具影響力人物，其20億美元的加密貨幣資產和2.212億社群媒體粉絲數，遠超其他競爭者。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>報告指出，特朗普以134萬美元的加密貨幣資產和1.427億粉絲數位居第二。薩爾瓦多總統Nayib Bukele則以844萬美元的加密貨幣資產和1760萬粉絲數排名第三。值得關注的是，前十名中僅有一位女性，參議員Cynthia Lummis，以及一位非美國領導人Bukele。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://cftime.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/image-12-1024x397.png" alt=""></figure><p><strong>加密貨幣最具影響力排行榜。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>ApeX Protocol的影響力指數顯示，名氣和粉絲數的重要性遠超單純的財富。 馬斯克的領先地位，正是基於其龐大的加密貨幣資產和廣大的社群媒體影響力。特朗普緊隨其後，其影響力主要來自其積極推動的親加密貨幣政策。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a href="https://cftime.io/el-salvador-bitcoin-strategy-2/">薩爾瓦多</a>總統 Bukele則憑藉其早期的比特幣採用和持續的社群媒體互動，穩居前三。 緊隨其後的是前總統候選人小羅伯特·F·甘迺迪以及其他幾位積極推動親加密貨幣政策的美國國會議員。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>加密貨幣最具影響力排行榜！<strong>馬斯克的加密貨幣策略：比特幣、狗狗幣與政治策略的結合</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>馬斯克積極提升其在加密貨幣領域的影響力。2025年7月7日，他宣布成立一個新的「美國黨」，並在X平台上確認該黨將「擁抱比特幣」，更直言「法幣已無望」。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>馬斯克通過特斯拉持有大量比特幣：2021年初，特斯拉斥資15億美元購買比特幣，<a href="https://cftime.io/tesla-holds-bitcoin-value/">至今仍持有約11,509個比特幣（價值約12.6億美元）</a>。他公開支持狗狗幣的歷史，也持續影響著市場波動，例如，在其宣布成立政黨後，狗狗幣價格上漲了5%。他經常發佈關於神秘迷因幣和支付暗示的推文，他過去的「$Doge」貼文曾引發價格大幅上漲或下跌。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>甚至馬斯克與特朗普之間的紛爭也與加密貨幣有關：7月1日，特朗普在其社群媒體上戲謔地表示，「DOGE應該仔細審視一下馬斯克的公司」，突顯加密貨幣已成為他們社群媒體戰爭的焦點。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>特朗普的加密貨幣計劃：比特幣儲備與積極的政策推動</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>排名第二的<a href="https://cftime.io/410k-btc/">特朗普</a>，積極推動親加密貨幣政策。去年再次就任美國總統第一天，他就簽署行政命令，成立美國戰略比特幣儲備和數位資產儲備，旨在將政府查封的加密貨幣作為儲備資產，並誓言讓美國成為「世界加密貨幣之都」。他於2025年3月提出的計劃，引發了市場反彈——比特幣價格飆升10%，達到94,000美元——卡爾達諾、索拉納和瑞波幣也隨之上漲，因為他將它們列入儲備名單。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>特朗普還於3月初召開了白宮加密貨幣峰會，扭轉了前任政府的打壓行動，並大力遊說國會通過親加密貨幣的法案，例如在7月中旬公開敦促共和黨通過具有里程碑意義的加密貨幣法案，並在社群媒體上表示：「眾議院很快將就一項讓美國成為數位資產領域無可爭議的領導者的法案進行投票——數位資產是未來。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，這一計劃也遭遇了共和黨內部的阻力：一小部分保守派眾議院議員曾 briefly 阻止了特朗普支持的加密貨幣法案（GENIUS法案及相關措施）的辯論。儘管如此，特朗普政府積極支持加密貨幣的立場，使其在加密貨幣影響力榜單上保持領先地位。 其提名人小羅伯特·F·甘迺迪擔任衛生與公共服務部長，以及馬斯克被視為潛在的證券交易委員會主席，都強化了這種影響力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>其他政治人物及獨立人物的影響力</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>除了馬斯克和特朗普，報告還提及其他具有影響力的人物，例如薩爾瓦多總統Bukele，他早期的比特幣採用和持續的社群媒體互動，使其影響力持續存在。 美國參議員Cynthia Lummis作為參議院數位資產小組委員會主席，積極推動親加密貨幣法案，例如在2025年3月重新提出「比特幣法案」，以及協助推動GENIUS穩定幣法案，也使其在榜單上佔有一席之地。 美國副總統J.D. Vance和德州眾議員Ted Cruz也因其親加密貨幣政策而位列前茅。 此外，小羅伯特·F·甘迺迪作為公開的比特幣支持者，其政治立場也提升了他的影響力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>監管、立法與影響力的演變</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>2025年上半年的監管浪潮，以及美國國會關於加密貨幣法案的辯論，都影響著加密貨幣領域的影響力排名。 香港、新加坡和巴西等地的監管動態也同樣重要。 所有這些政治因素，都會影響那些支持或似乎支持加密貨幣的人物之影響力。 例如，前證券交易委員會提名人Jay Clayton的離職，為特朗普承諾的親加密貨幣證券交易委員會主席鋪平了道路。「比特幣法案」和「GENIUS法案」的進展，也會進一步影響相關政治人物的影響力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>總而言之，目前加密貨幣領域的權力掮客，並非僅限於幣圈創始人或交易所行政總裁，而是科技億萬富翁、媒體人物和政治人物的混合體，他們正共同塑造著這個領域的未來。</p>

Musk surpasses Trump to become the most influential person in crypto

马斯克超越川普 成加密货币影响力最大人物

馬斯克超越特朗普，成加密貨幣影響力最大人物

馬斯克超越特朗普 成加密貨幣影響力最大人物

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</div></div><p>Bitcoin's price has broken through $120,000. Despite this astronomical rise, several on-chain indicators suggest that the current bull market is not overheating but rather indicates potential for continued growth.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Bitcoin Soars as On-Chain Data Indicates Bull Market Sustainability</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Compared to the price peaks before March and December 2024, the current Bitcoin price surge exhibits different characteristics. In previous peaks, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio spiked above 2.7, reflecting high market speculation. However, the current MVRV ratio is only 2.2, indicating a relatively stable market environment.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Data from CryptoQuant shows that short-term holders (those holding for less than a month) currently make up only 15% of the market, significantly lower than the 30% seen during prior price peaks. This suggests limited inflow of new funds and a relatively cautious investor sentiment. Additionally, the Short-Term Holder Profit and Loss Ratio (SOPR) indicates that recent buyers are not actively selling, resulting in relatively low selling pressure.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The Miner Position Index (MPI) has also continued to decline, indicating that miners prefer to hold Bitcoin rather than sell, contrasting with the past phenomenon where rising prices prompted significant selling by miners.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Institutional Investors Driving Growth, Not Speculative Trading</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>CryptoQuant analysis indicates that the recent Bitcoin price increase is not driven by speculative trading but may be supported by strategic adoption by nations and corporations, suggesting a structurally different bull market cycle. Analysts emphasize that relying solely on historical patterns for on-chain data analysis is insufficient and requires deeper contextual interpretation. With no signs of overheating after breaking new highs, there is significant potential for further price increases in the medium to long term.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Exchange Balances Continue to Decline, Reducing Sell-Off Risks</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Data from Santiment shows that despite Bitcoin's price rising nearly 20% since the low on June 22, traders have not been transferring large amounts of Bitcoin back to exchanges. Instead, holders are continuously moving Bitcoin to self-custody wallets. Over the past four months, exchange Bitcoin balances have decreased by 315,830 BTC, a drop of 21%; since July 2020, they have decreased by 1.88 million BTC, a decline of 61%. The ongoing decrease in exchange balances reduces the risk of large-scale sell-offs, indicating that long-term investors are more inclined to hold.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>In conclusion, while Bitcoin's price has reached a historic high, multiple on-chain data indicators suggest that this bull market differs from previous ones, exhibiting higher sustainability and potential for long-term development. However, market risks remain, and investors should remain cautious.</p>

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</div></div><p>比特币(BTC)价格突破12万美元，创下历史新高。尽管比特币冲破天际，但多项链上指标显示，当前牛市并未过热，反而暗示着持续增长的潜力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>比特币冲破天际 链上数据显示牛市可持续性</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>与2024年3月和12月之前的价格峰值相比，此次比特币价格上涨呈现出不同的特征。 以往峰值时，市值与实现价格比率 (MVRV) 曾飙升至2.7以上，反映市场投机情绪高涨。然而，目前MVRV比率仅为2.2，显示市场环境相对稳定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>CryptoQuant的数据显示，短期持有者（持有时间少于一个月）目前仅占市场的15%，远低于先前价格高点时的30%。这意味着新增资金流入有限，投资者态度相对谨慎。 同时，短期持有者的短期持有者盈亏比率 (SOPR) 表明近期买家并未积极抛售，卖压相对低迷。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>矿工持仓指数 (MPI) 也持续下跌，显示矿工倾向于持有比特币而非抛售，与过去价格上涨引发矿工大量抛售的现象形成鲜明对比。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>机构投资者推动，而非投机炒作</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>CryptoQuant分析指出，此次比特币价格上涨并非由投机炒作驱动，而是可能受到国家和企业战略性采用的支持，暗示着一个结构性不同的牛市周期。 分析师强调，单纯依靠历史模式分析链上数据已不足够，需要更深入的情境化解读。 由于突破新高未出现过热迹象，中长期价格进一步上涨的潜力巨大。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>交易所余额持续下降，降低抛售风险</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Santiment数据显示，尽管比特币价格自6月22日低点上涨近20%，但交易者并未将比特币大量转回交易所。 相反，持有者持续将比特币转移至自托管钱包。过去四个月，交易所比特币余额减少了315,830个BTC，降幅达21%；自2020年7月以来，减少了188万个BTC，降幅达61%。交易所余额的持续下降，降低了大规模抛售的风险，显示长期投资者更倾向于长期持有。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>总而言之，尽管比特币价格创下历史新高，但多项链上数据指标显示，此次牛市与以往不同，其可持续性较高，并可能拥有更长远的发展潜力。 然而，市场风险依然存在，投资者仍需保持谨慎。</p>

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</div></div><p><a href="https://cftime.io/bitcoin-breaks-through-110k/">比特幣</a>(BTC)價格突破12萬美元，創下歷史新高。儘管比特幣衝破天際，但多項鏈上指標顯示，當前牛市並未過熱，反而暗示著持續增長的潛力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>即加入</strong><a href="https://t.me/+l--9PJpFdIgxOTk9"><strong>CFTime TG 討論區</strong></a><strong>！想掌握最新加密市場動態與 AI 新聞與資訊，更能隨時獲得免費 web 3入場券！</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>比特幣衝破天際 <strong>鏈上數據顯示牛市可持續性</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>與2024年3月和12月之前的價格峰值相比，此次比特幣價格上漲呈現出不同的特徵。 以往峰值時，市值與實現價格比率 (MVRV) 曾飆升至2.7以上，反映市場投機情緒高漲。然而，目前MVRV比率僅為2.2，顯示市場環境相對穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a href="https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/68703bb04cb15045bedc7859-New-All-Time-High-Without-Overheating-On-Chain-Data-Suggests-Room-for-Further-Gr">CryptoQuant的數據顯示</a>，短期持有者（持有時間少於一個月）目前僅佔市場的15%，遠低於先前價格高點時的30%。這意味著新增資金流入有限，投資者態度相對謹慎。 同時，短期持有者的短期持有者盈虧比率 (SOPR) 表明近期買家並未積極拋售，賣壓相對低迷。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>礦工持倉指數 (MPI) 也持續下跌，顯示礦工傾向於持有比特幣而非拋售，與過去價格上漲引發礦工大量拋售的現象形成鮮明對比。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>機構投資者推動，而非投機炒作</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>CryptoQuant分析指出，此次比特幣價格上漲並非由投機炒作驅動，而是可能受到國家和企業戰略性採用的支持，暗示著一個結構性不同的牛市週期。 分析師強調，單純依靠歷史模式分析鏈上數據已不足夠，需要更深入的情境化解讀。 由於突破新高未出現過熱跡象，中長期價格進一步上漲的潛力巨大。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>交易所餘額持續下降，降低拋售風險</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Santiment數據顯示，儘管比特幣價格自6月22日低點上漲近20%，但交易者並未將比特幣大量轉回交易所。 相反，持有者持續將比特幣轉移至自託管錢包。過去四個月，交易所比特幣餘額減少了315,830個BTC，降幅達21%；自2020年7月以來，減少了188萬個BTC，降幅達61%。交易所餘額的持續下降，降低了大規模拋售的風險，顯示長期投資者更傾向於長期持有。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>總而言之，儘管比特幣價格創下歷史新高，但多項鏈上數據指標顯示，此次牛市與以往不同，其可持續性較高，並可能擁有更長遠的發展潛力。 然而，市場風險依然存在，投資者仍需保持謹慎。</p>

Bitcoin breaks through the sky

比特币冲破天际「却没人想卖」？链上指标惊现「2016年牛市复刻版」

比特幣衝破天際「卻沒人想賣」？鏈上指標驚現「2016年牛市復刻版」

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</div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Reportedly, U.S. President Trump is planning to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, a move that could trigger a devaluation of the U.S. dollar. If Trump were to dismiss Powell, the experience of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's interference in central bank operations serves as a cautionary tale. It led to a currency collapse and increased investment in Bitcoin and stablecoins.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>If President Trump actually carries out his reported plan to fire Fed Chairman Powell, further driving down the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the U.S. stock market, investors might accelerate their shift away from the dollar towards censorship-resistant and seizure-resistant assets like Bitcoin and stablecoins.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Turkey's experience offers a significant lesson. Due to President Erdogan's repeated interventions in the central bank's operations, the Turkish Lira (TRY) has steadily depreciated over the years. Since 2020-21, the Lira's devaluation has triggered capital flight into Bitcoin and stablecoins.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Trump's Potential Dismissal of Powell: Trump's Conflict with the Fed</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Trump has publicly feuded with the Federal Reserve and its Chairman Powell for years, criticizing Powell for being too slow to cut interest rates. However, Trump's recent criticism has reached a fever pitch, with reports indicating that he is exploring ways to remove Powell. Powell recently warned of the risk of stagflation, while the President reiterated his demand for lower borrowing costs and suggested that inflation is not a concern.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Powell's cautious approach stems from survey data regarding inflation expectations triggered by trade wars, expectations that could become self-fulfilling. However, recently, Trump went further, calling Powell a "big loser" and warning that the economy could slow down unless interest rates are cut immediately.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>Lessons Learned from Turkey</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Erdogan began interfering with the central bank's operations in 2019, and since then, the Lira has plummeted against the dollar from 5.3 to 38.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>It all began in 2017 when Turkey's inflation rate reached double digits. The following year, inflation remained high, prompting the country's central bank to raise the one-week repo rate from 17.5% to 24% in September 2018.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>This move was likely against Erdogan's wishes, and in July 2019, he issued his first decree, firing the Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey, Murat Cetinkaya. From then until the end of 2021, Erdogan issued multiple decrees, dismissing and appointing numerous Turkish central bank officials. Throughout this period, inflation remained high, and the Lira continued to depreciate at an alarming rate.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Erdogan stated in 2021: "We are definitely against high interest rates. We will reduce inflation and exchange rates through low interest rate policies… High interest rates make the rich richer and the poor poorer. We will not allow this to happen."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>According to TradingEconomics data, as of 2025, Turkey's inflation rate is near 40%. This experience serves as a warning for Trump, highlighting how interfering with central bank independence – especially in the face of looming inflation – can undermine investor confidence and lead to a collapse of the national currency.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>This doesn't necessarily mean the dollar will collapse like the Lira, but a significant devaluation is possible.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Given that the dollar is the world's reserve currency and the U.S. Treasury market is a cornerstone of international finance, such a move could create even greater instability in global markets. If wiser counsel does not prevail, U.S. investors, like the Turks, may be incentivized to move capital out of U.S. assets and into Bitcoin and other alternative investments.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Worth noting: Earlier this week, the dollar fell to a three-year low, and Wall Street also declined in tandem, but Bitcoin, which usually follows Wall Street's sentiment, bucked the trend and rose. (Specific Bitcoin price data should be added here to quantify the increase.) Is this just the beginning?</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

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</div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>美国总统特朗普据传计划解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，此举可能引发美元贬值。特朗普欲解雇鲍威尔，可参考土耳其总统埃尔多安（Recep Tayyip Erdogan）干预央行运作的经验则是一个警示案例，它导致了货币崩溃，并增加了对比特币和稳定币的投资。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>若特朗普总统真的执行其据传的计划，解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，进一步推低美元指数(DXY)和美国股市，则投资者可能加速从美元转向比特币和稳定币等抗没收和抗审查的资产。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>土耳其的经验提供了重要教训。由于总统艾尔段多次干预央行运作，土耳其里拉(TRY)多年来持续贬值。自2020-21年以来，里拉的贬值已引发资本外逃，流向比特币和稳定币。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>特朗普欲解雇鲍威尔？ 特朗普与美联储的矛盾</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>特朗普多年来一直公开与美联储及其主席鲍威尔发生争执，批评鲍威尔在减息方面反应过慢。然而，最近特朗普的批评达到高潮，有报导称他正在寻找解雇鲍威尔的方法。鲍威尔最近警告存在滞胀的风险，而总统则重申要求降低借贷成本，并暗示不存在通货膨胀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>鲍威尔的谨慎做法是出于对贸易战引发的通货膨胀预期调查数据的反应，这些预期数据总是可能自我实现。然而，近日，特朗普更进一步，称鲍威尔是「大输家」，并警告说，除非立即降低利率，否则经济可能会放缓。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>从土耳其汲取的教训</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>埃尔多安从2019年开始干预央行运作，从那以后，里拉兑美元汇率从5.3暴跌至38。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>这一切始于2017年土耳其的通货膨胀率达到两位数。随后一年，通货膨胀率居高不下，促使该国央行在2018年9月将一周回购利率从17.5%提高到24%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此举可能与埃尔多安的意愿相悖，他在2019年7月发布第一道法令，解雇了土耳其央行行长 Murat Cetinkaya 。从那时起直到2021年底，埃尔多安发布了多道法令，解雇和任命了多名土耳其央行官员。在此期间，通货膨胀率居高不下，里拉持续以惊人的速度贬值。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>埃尔多安在2021年表示：「我们当然不相信高利率。我们将通过低利率政策来降低通货膨胀和汇率……高利率使富人更富，穷人更穷。我们不会让这种情况发生。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根据TradingEconomics的数据，截至2025年，土耳其的通货膨胀率接近40%。这段经历为特朗普敲响了警钟，突显出干预央行独立性——尤其是在通货膨胀即将到来的情况下——可能会损害投资者信心，并导致本国货币暴跌。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>这并不一定意味着美元会像里拉一样崩溃，但可能会出现大幅贬值。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>鉴于美元是全球储备货币，而美国国库券市场是国际金融的基石，此举甚至可能对全球市场造成更大的不稳定。如果明智之举未能占据上风，美国投资者可能会像土耳其人一样，有动力将资金从美国资产转移到比特币和其他另类投资。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>值得关注的是：本周初，美元跌至三年低点，华尔街也同步下跌，但通常追随华尔街情绪的比特币却逆势上涨。 （此处应补充比特币的具体价格数据，以量化其涨幅。） 这是否仅仅是个开始？</p>

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</div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>美國總統特朗普據傳計劃解僱美聯儲主席鮑威爾，此舉可能引發美元貶值。特朗普欲解僱鮑威爾，可參考土耳其總統埃爾多安（Recep Tayyip Erdogan）干預央行運作的經驗則是一個警示案例，它導致了貨幣崩潰，並增加了對比特幣和穩定幣的投資。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>即加入</strong><a href="https://t.me/+l--9PJpFdIgxOTk9"><strong>CFTime TG 討論區</strong></a><strong>！想掌握最新加密市場動態與 AI 新聞與資訊，更能隨時獲得免費 web 3入場券！</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>若特朗普總統真的執行其據傳的計劃，解僱美聯儲主席鮑威爾，進一步推低美元指數(DXY)和美國股市，則投資者可能加速從美元轉向比特幣和穩定幣等抗沒收和抗審查的資產。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>土耳其的經驗提供了重要教訓。由於總統艾爾段多次干預央行運作，土耳其里拉(TRY)多年來持續貶值。自2020-21年以來，里拉的貶值已引發資本外逃，流向比特幣和穩定幣。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>特朗普欲解僱鮑威爾？ 特朗普與美聯儲的矛盾</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>特朗普多年來一直公開與美聯儲及其主席鮑威爾發生爭執，批評鮑威爾在減息方面反應過慢。然而，最近特朗普的批評達到高潮，有報導稱他正在尋找解僱鮑威爾的方法。鮑威爾最近警告存在滯脹的風險，而總統則重申要求降低借貸成本，並暗示不存在通貨膨脹。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>鮑威爾的謹慎做法是出於對貿易戰引發的通貨膨脹預期調查數據的反應，這些預期數據總是可能自我實現。然而，近日，特朗普更進一步，稱鮑威爾是「大輸家」，並警告說，除非立即降低利率，否則經濟可能會放緩。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>從土耳其汲取的教訓</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>埃爾多安從2019年開始干預央行運作，從那以後，里拉兌美元匯率從5.3暴跌至38。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>這一切始於2017年土耳其的通貨膨脹率達到兩位數。隨後一年，通貨膨脹率居高不下，促使該國央行在2018年9月將一周回購利率從17.5%提高到24%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此舉可能與埃爾多安的意願相悖，他在2019年7月發布第一道法令，解僱了土耳其央行行長 Murat Cetinkaya 。從那時起直到2021年底，埃爾多安發布了多道法令，解僱和任命了多名土耳其央行官員。在此期間，通貨膨脹率居高不下，里拉持續以驚人的速度貶值。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>埃爾多安在2021年表示：「我們當然不相信高利率。我們將通過低利率政策來降低通貨膨脹和匯率……高利率使富人更富，窮人更窮。我們不會讓這種情況發生。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根據TradingEconomics的數據，截至2025年，土耳其的通貨膨脹率接近40%。這段經歷為特朗普敲響了警鐘，突顯出干預央行獨立性——尤其是在通貨膨脹即將到來的情況下——可能會損害投資者信心，並導致本國貨幣暴跌。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>這並不一定意味著美元會像里拉一樣崩潰，但可能會出現大幅貶值。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>鑑於美元是全球儲備貨幣，而美國國庫券市場是國際金融的基石，此舉甚至可能對全球市場造成更大的不穩定。如果明智之舉未能佔據上風，美國投資者可能會像土耳其人一樣，有動力將資金從美國資產轉移到比特幣和其他另類投資。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>值得關注的是：本週初，美元跌至三年低點，華爾街也同步下跌，但通常追隨華爾街情緒的比特幣卻逆勢上漲。（此處應補充比特幣的具體價格數據，以量化其漲幅。） 這是否僅僅是個開始？</p>

What would happen to crypto if Trump fired Powell?

如特朗普解雇鲍威尔 对加密货币带来什么后果

如特朗普解僱鮑威爾 對加密貨幣帶來什麼後果 

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</div><p>BlackRock CEO Larry Fink predicted at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January that Bitcoin could reach $700,000 if sovereign wealth funds allocated 2% to 5% of their portfolios to the cryptocurrency. This prediction is based on BlackRock's ongoing discussions with multiple sovereign wealth funds regarding Bitcoin investment.</p><p>Fink told Bloomberg that if this trend expands, "the price of each Bitcoin will reach $500,000, $600,000, or even $700,000." He positioned Bitcoin as a hedge against global economic and political instability, rather than a mere investment asset, emphasizing that this wasn't a Bitcoin promotional statement. This prediction contrasts with Peng Xiao, an official at a UAE AI company, who views cryptocurrency as "the currency of AI," highlighting the diverse interpretations of Bitcoin's future value in the market.</p><p>BlackRock's Actions Extend Beyond Price Prediction</p><p>BlackRock's involvement extends beyond mere price predictions. On March 25th, Securitize CEO Carlos Domingo announced that BlackRock's Bitcoin USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) would be launched on the Solana blockchain. This move signifies BlackRock's active expansion into the Solana ecosystem, further enhancing its influence in the cryptocurrency market.</p><p>Launched in March 2024, the BUIDL fund has a market value approaching $2 billion. Securitize COO Michael Sonnenshein told Fortune magazine that the fund aims to make traditional assets more attractive by tokenizing them on the blockchain. This is seen as one of BlackRock's strategies for continuous deployment in the cryptocurrency market, going beyond simple Bitcoin price predictions.</p><p>Currently, according to Kraken data, Bitcoin's price is $87,746, showing a slight decline. Fink's prediction is significantly higher than the current price, reflecting the high degree of uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin's future price and highlighting the potential influence of institutional investors. BlackRock's actions, whether price predictions or expansion into the Solana ecosystem, will continue to shape the future of the Bitcoin market.</p>

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</div><p>贝莱德预测比特币2025年价格将达70万美元。贝莱德行政总裁Larry Fink于一月在达沃斯世界经济论坛上预测，若主权财富基金将其投资组合的2%至5%配置于比特币，比特币价格可能达到70万美元。此预测建立在贝莱德与多个主权财富基金就比特币投资进行洽谈的基础上。</p><p>Fink向彭博社表示，若此趋势扩大，「每个比特币的价格将达到50万、60万甚至70万美元」。 他将比特币定位为对抗全球经济及政治不稳定性的避险工具，而非单纯的投资标的，并强调此言论并非比特币的宣传。 此预测与阿联酋AI公司官肖鹏（Peng Xiao）将加密货币视为「AI的货币」的观点形成对比，展现了市场对比特币未来价值的不同诠释。</p><p>贝莱德预测比特币 行动也超越了单纯的价格预测</p><p>值得注意的是，贝莱德的行动也超越了单纯的价格预测。 3月25日，Securitize 行政总裁 Carlos Domingo宣布，贝莱德的美元机构数位流动性基金(BUIDL)将登陆Solana区块链。此举显示贝莱德正积极扩展至Solana生态系，进一步提升其在加密货币市场的影响力。</p><p>BUIDL基金于2024年3月推出，市值已逼近20亿美元。 Securitize营运长Michael Sonnenshein向《财富》杂志表示，该基金旨在透过将传统资产上链，使其更具吸引力。 此举被视为贝莱德持续布局加密货币市场的策略之一，并非仅止于对比特币价格的单纯预测。</p><p>截至目前，根据Kraken的数据显示，比特币价格为87,746美元，呈现小幅下跌。 Fink的预测与目前价格相差甚远，反映了市场对比特币未来价格存在高度不确定性，也突显了机构投资者对比特币的潜在影响力。 贝莱德的行动，无论是价格预测还是扩展至Solana生态系，都将持续影响比特币市场的发展走向。</p>

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</div><p>貝萊德預測比特幣2025年價格將達70萬美元。貝萊德行政總裁Larry Fink於一月在達沃斯世界經濟論壇上預測，若主權財富基金將其投資組合的2%至5%配置於比特幣，比特幣價格可能達到70萬美元。此預測建立在貝萊德與多個主權財富基金就比特幣投資進行洽談的基礎上。</p><p>Fink向彭博社表示，若此趨勢擴大，「每個比特幣的價格將達到50萬、60萬甚至70萬美元」。 他將比特幣定位為對抗全球經濟及政治不穩定性的避險工具，而非單純的投資標的，並強調此言論並非比特幣的宣傳。 此預測與阿聯酋AI公司官肖鵬（Peng Xiao）將加密貨幣視為「AI的貨幣」的觀點形成對比，展現了市場對比特幣未來價值的不同詮釋。</p><p>貝萊德預測比特幣 行動也超越了單純的價格預測</p><p>值得注意的是，貝萊德的行動也超越了單純的價格預測。3月25日，Securitize 行政總裁 Carlos Domingo宣佈，貝萊德的美元機構數位流動性基金(BUIDL)將登陸Solana區塊鏈。此舉顯示貝萊德正積極擴展至Solana生態系，進一步提升其在加密貨幣市場的影響力。</p><p>BUIDL基金於2024年3月推出，市值已逼近20億美元。Securitize營運長Michael Sonnenshein向《財富》雜誌表示，該基金旨在透過將傳統資產上鏈，使其更具吸引力。 此舉被視為貝萊德持續佈局加密貨幣市場的策略之一，並非僅止於對比特幣價格的單純預測。</p><p>截至目前，根據Kraken的數據顯示，比特幣價格為87,746美元，呈現小幅下跌。 Fink的預測與目前價格相差甚遠，反映了市場對比特幣未來價格存在高度不確定性，也突顯了機構投資者對比特幣的潛在影響力。 貝萊德的行動，無論是價格預測還是擴展至Solana生態系，都將持續影響比特幣市場的發展走向。</p>

BlackRock predicts Bitcoin price will reach $700,000 by 2025

贝莱德预测比特币2025年价格将达70万美元

貝萊德預測比特幣2025年價格將達70萬美元

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</div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of this year. Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Asset Research, reiterated his long-term forecast that Bitcoin will break through the $200,000 mark by the end of 2025. He believes that despite facing short-term uncertainties related to tariffs left over from the Trump administration and the risk of economic recession, these factors actually strengthen his bullish outlook for Bitcoin.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Kendrick's analysis points out that the recent decline in Bitcoin's price is approaching the $69,000 to $76,500 range seen after the November 6, 2024 election. He compared Bitcoin's 30-day implied annualized volatility (currently at 55%) with the US "Magnificent Seven" (big tech stocks) and found that, after adjusting for volatility, Bitcoin's decline since President Trump took office is in line with these seven tech stocks.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>He stated, "I would say that, after adjusting for volatility, Bitcoin's trading is indeed firmly within this group of seven tech stocks plus Bitcoin." This suggests that Bitcoin's recent weakness reflects the weakness of overall risk assets, rather than a problem specific to Bitcoin. Among them, Tesla has fallen the most, while Meta and Apple have performed relatively well, and the trends of other stocks are similar to Bitcoin.</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin to Rise Due to Economic Uncertainty</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Kendrick believes that there are two potential catalysts for market recovery: clarification of tariff issues (low probability) or accelerated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (probability of a rate cut at the May meeting rising from 50% to 75%, higher probability). He warned that if Bitcoin falls below the support level of $76,500 (November 6 high), it could quickly drop to $69,000. However, Kendrick emphasized that his long-term forecast remains unshaken, and he believes that economic uncertainty increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, which in turn strengthens his long-term expectation that Bitcoin will reach $200,000.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Rock Zhang, founder and CEO of Network3 (an AI Layer2 platform), added context regarding the macroeconomic environment. He pointed out that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates early, and it is associated with recession indicators such as rising unemployment or slowing consumer spending, it could trigger concerns about a stock market downturn. He believes that the Fed's actions will depend on whether the rate cut is seen as a proactive measure or a response to recession indicators, which will affect market dynamics, and this may benefit Bitcoin in the long run.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Therefore, despite increased short-term volatility, Standard Chartered maintains its optimistic forecast for Bitcoin, believing that it will overcome short-term risks and ultimately reach its target price of $200,000 by the end of 2025.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

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</div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>渣打预测比特币今年底将达20万美元。渣打银行数位资产研究全球主管Geoffrey Kendrick重申其长期预测：比特币将在2025年底突破20万美元大关。他认为，尽管短期内面临特朗普政府时期遗留的关税不确定性及经济衰退风险，这些因素反而强化了他对比特币的看涨预期。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Kendrick的分析指出，近期比特币价格下跌，逼近2024年11月6日大选后69,000美元至76,500美元的区间。他将比特币30天隐含年化波动率（目前为55%）与美国「Magnificent Seven」(七大科技股) 作比较，发现经过波动率调整后，自特朗普总统就职以来，比特币的跌幅与这七大科技股相符。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>他表示：「我会说，在经过波动率调整后，比特币的交易确实稳固地处于这七大科技股加上比特币的群组内。」 这暗示比特币的近期疲软反映的是整体风险资产的弱势，而非比特币自身的问题。其中，特斯拉跌幅最大，Meta和苹果表现相对较佳，其他股票走势则与比特币相似。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>渣打预测比特币因经济不确定性而上升</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Kendrick认为，市场复苏的潜在催化剂有二：关税问题明朗化（可能性低）或美联储加速减息（5月份会议减息机率从50%上升至75%，可能性较高）。他警告，若比特币跌破76,500美元（11月6日高点）的支撑位，可能迅速跌至69,000美元。但Kendrick强调，他的长期预测并未因此动摇，反而认为经济不确定性增加了美联储减息的机率，进而强化了他比特币将达20万美元的长期预期。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Network3（一个AI Layer2平台）的创始人兼行政总裁Rock Zhang补充说明了宏观经济环境。他指出，如果美联储提前减息，且与失业率上升或消费者支出放缓等衰退指标相关联，则可能引发股市下跌的担忧。 他认为，美联储的行动将取决于减息被视为主动措施还是对衰退指标的反应，进而影响市场动态，而这可能从长远来看有利于比特币。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>因此，尽管短期波动加剧，渣打仍维持其对比特币的乐观预测，认为其将克服短期风险，最终在2025年底达到20万美元的目标价位。</p>

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</div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>渣打預測比特幣今年底將達20萬美元。渣打銀行數位資產研究全球主管<a href="https://cftime.io/experts-predict-bitcoin-price-could-drop-to-80k/">Geoffrey Kendrick</a>重申其長期預測：比特幣將在2025年底突破20萬美元大關。他認為，儘管短期內面臨特朗普政府時期遺留的關稅不確定性及經濟衰退風險，這些因素反而強化了他對比特幣的看漲預期。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Kendrick的分析指出，近期比特幣價格下跌，逼近2024年11月6日大選後69,000美元至76,500美元的區間。他將比特幣30天隱含年化波動率（目前為55%）與美國「Magnificent Seven」(七大科技股) 作比較，發現經過波動率調整後，自<a href="https://cftime.io/trumps-tariff-policy-hits-the-market/">特朗普</a>總統就職以來，比特幣的跌幅與這七大科技股相符。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>他表示：「我會說，在經過波動率調整後，比特幣的交易確實穩固地處於這七大科技股加上比特幣的群組內。」 這暗示比特幣的近期疲軟反映的是整體風險資產的弱勢，而非比特幣自身的問題。其中，特斯拉跌幅最大，Meta和蘋果表現相對較佳，其他股票走勢則與比特幣相似。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>渣打預測比特幣因經濟不確定性而上升</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Kendrick認為，市場復甦的潛在催化劑有二：關稅問題明朗化（可能性低）或美聯儲加速減息（5月份會議減息機率從50%上升至75%，可能性較高）。他警告，若比特幣跌破76,500美元（11月6日高點）的支撐位，可能迅速跌至69,000美元。但Kendrick強調，他的長期預測並未因此動搖，反而認為經濟不確定性增加了美聯儲減息的機率，進而強化了他比特幣將達20萬美元的長期預期。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Network3（一個AI Layer2平台）的創始人兼行政總裁Rock Zhang補充說明了宏觀經濟環境。他指出，如果美聯儲提前減息，且與失業率上升或消費者支出放緩等衰退指標相關聯，則可能引發股市下跌的擔憂。 他認為，美聯儲的行動將取決於減息被視為主動措施還是對衰退指標的反應，進而影響市場動態，而這可能從長遠來看有利於比特幣。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>因此，儘管短期波動加劇，渣打仍維持其對比特幣的樂觀預測，認為其將克服短期風險，最終在2025年底達到20萬美元的目標價位。</p>

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