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</div></div>After the passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" by Congress, House Republicans are launching "Cryptocurrency Week" with an intensive legislative push aimed at reshaping the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory framework and preventing future digital currency issuance by state governments. This initiative is seen as part of a broader plan by the Trump administration to establish U.S. leadership in global crypto innovation.&nbsp;<h3>Core Content of Cryptocurrency Week:</h3>&nbsp;The House plans to focus on three important cryptocurrency bills during the week of July 14: the "CLARITY Act," the "Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act," and the "GENIUS Act." Republican lawmakers emphasize that these bills will bring regulatory certainty to the digital asset market while effectively preventing the Federal Reserve from issuing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).&nbsp;House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill (R-AR) stated, "After years of effort in Congress on digital assets, we are advancing landmark legislation to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets." This framework aims to protect consumer rights, enhance regulatory transparency, and explicitly prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC.&nbsp;House Agriculture Committee Chairman GT Thompson (R-PA) remarked, "The industry has long called for a clear regulatory framework. The House Agriculture Committee has worked alongside the Financial Services Committee to finalize the CLARITY Act, which will soon be voted on by the House and sent to the Senate for consideration."<h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>Progress of Cryptocurrency Week Legislation:</h3>&nbsp;Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act: Passed the House Financial Services Committee in April with a vote of 27 in favor and 22 against. This bill, introduced by Congressman Tom Emmer (R-MN), aims to prevent the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar based on concerns over financial surveillance and the Fed transitioning to a retail banking institution.&nbsp;CLARITY Act: Approved by the House Financial Services and Agriculture Committees in June. This bill would strip the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of its oversight authority over the cryptocurrency industry.&nbsp;GENIUS Act: Passed the Senate in June and is currently awaiting a vote in the House.&nbsp;Congressman Tom Emmer (R-MN) emphasized that these bills will safeguard financial privacy and strengthen the U.S.'s leading position in blockchain innovation, ultimately making America a leader in the global cryptocurrency space. "Innovators in the U.S. will have a clearer understanding of the regulatory environment, enabling them to grow domestically while ensuring that the future of the digital economy reflects our values of privacy, personal sovereignty, and free market competition."&nbsp;<h3>Coordination Between State Legislation and Federal Policy:</h3>&nbsp;Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) noted that this federal action aligns with the legislative direction of some states. "Wyoming has actively embraced digital assets for nearly a decade, and we are pleased to see the federal government beginning to follow the Cowboy State's lead." She also expressed support for passing comprehensive stablecoin legislation to establish clear market rules and ensure that any CBDC respects the privacy and financial freedoms of Americans.

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</div></div>在「大而美法案」(One Big Beautiful Bill Act)，获国会通过后，美国众议院共和党人正发起「加密货币周」，以密集的立法行动，目标是重塑美国加密货币监管框架，并阻止未来由州政府发行数位货币。此举被视为特朗普政府更广泛计划的一部分，旨在确立美国在全球加密创新领域的领导地位。<h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>加密货币周核心内容：</h3>&nbsp;众议院计划于7月14日当周集中审议三项重要加密货币法案： 《CLARITY法案》、《反 CBDC 监控国家法案》以及《GENIUS法案》。 共和党立法者强调，这些法案将为数位资产市场带来监管确定性，同时有效阻止美联储发行中央银行数位货币 (CBDC)。&nbsp;众议院金融服务委员会主席 French Hill (R-AR) 在声明中指出：「经过多年在国会致力于数位资产的努力，我们正推进具有里程碑意义的法案，以建立明确的数位资产监管框架。」 该框架旨在保障消费者权益，提升监管透明度，并明确禁止美联储发行 CBDC。&nbsp;众议院农业委员会主席 GT Thompson (R-PA) 则表示：「业界长期呼吁明确的监管框架。众议院农业委员会与金融服务委员会携手合作，完成了《CLARITY法案》的制定，接下来将由众议院表决，并送交参议院审议。」&nbsp;加密货币周法案进展：<ul><li> 《反 CBDC 监控国家法案》: 4月已以27票赞成、22票反对的结果通过众议院金融服务委员会。该法案由众议员 Tom Emmer (R-MN) 提出，旨在基于对金融监控以及美联储转变为零售银行机构的担忧，阻止美联储发行数位美元。 《CLARITY法案》: 6月获得众议院金融服务委员会和农业委员会批准。该法案将剥夺美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 对加密货币行业的监督权。 《GENIUS法案》: 6月已通过参议院，目前等待众议院投票。</li></ul>&nbsp;众议员 Tom Emmer (R-MN) 强调，通过这些法案将维护金融隐私，巩固美国在区块链创新上的领先地位，最终让美国成为全球加密货币领域的领头羊。 「美国的创新者将更清晰地了解监管环境，得以在国内发展，同时确保数位经济的未来能反映我们对隐私、个人主权和自由市场竞争的价值观。」<h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>州级立法与联邦政策的协同：</h3>&nbsp;参议员 Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) 指出，联邦政府的这一行动与部分州的立法方向一致。 「怀俄明州近十年来一直积极拥抱数位资产，我们很高兴看到联邦政府开始追随牛仔州的脚步。」 她同时表示，支持通过全面的稳定币法案，建立明确的市场规则，并确保任何 CBDC 都能尊重美国人的隐私和金融自由。

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</div></div>在「<a href="https://cftime.io/big-beautiful-bill/">大而美法案</a>」(One Big Beautiful Bill Act)，獲國會通過後，美國眾議院共和黨人正發起「加密貨幣週」，以密集的立法行動，目標是重塑美國加密貨幣監管框架，並阻止未來由州政府發行數位貨幣。此舉被視為特朗普政府更廣泛計劃的一部分，旨在確立美國在全球加密創新領域的領導地位。<h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>加密貨幣週核心內容：</h3>&nbsp;眾議院計劃於7月14日當週集中審議三項重要加密貨幣法案： 《CLARITY法案》、《反 CBDC 監控國家法案》以及《<a href="https://cftime.io/circle-plunges/">GENIUS</a>法案》。 共和黨立法者強調，這些法案將為數位資產市場帶來監管確定性，同時有效阻止美聯儲發行中央銀行數位貨幣 (CBDC)。&nbsp;眾議院金融服務委員會主席 French Hill (R-AR) <a href="https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=410793">在聲明中指出</a>：「經過多年在國會致力於數位資產的努力，我們正推進具有里程碑意義的法案，以建立明確的數位資產監管框架。」 該框架旨在保障消費者權益，提升監管透明度，並明確禁止美聯儲發行 CBDC。&nbsp;眾議院農業委員會主席 GT Thompson (R-PA) 則表示：「業界長期呼籲明確的監管框架。眾議院農業委員會與金融服務委員會攜手合作，完成了《CLARITY法案》的制定，接下來將由眾議院表決，並送交參議院審議。」&nbsp;加密貨幣週法案進展：<ul><li>&nbsp;</li><li>《反 CBDC 監控國家法案》: 4月已以27票贊成、22票反對的結果通過眾議院金融服務委員會。該法案由眾議員 Tom Emmer (R-MN) 提出，旨在基於對金融監控以及美聯儲轉變為零售銀行機構的擔憂，阻止美聯儲發行數位美元。</li><li>《CLARITY法案》: 6月獲得眾議院金融服務委員會和農業委員會批准。該法案將剝奪美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 對加密貨幣行業的監督權。</li><li>《GENIUS法案》: 6月已通過參議院，目前等待眾議院投票。</li></ul>&nbsp;眾議員 Tom Emmer (R-MN) 強調，通過這些法案將維護金融隱私，鞏固美國在區塊鏈創新上的領先地位，最終讓美國成為全球加密貨幣領域的領頭羊。「美國的創新者將更清晰地了解監管環境，得以在國內發展，同時確保數位經濟的未來能反映我們對隱私、個人主權和自由市場競爭的價值觀。」&nbsp;<h3>州級立法與聯邦政策的協同：</h3>&nbsp;參議員<a href="https://cftime.io/cynthia-lummis/"> Cynthia </a>Lummis (R-WY) 指出，聯邦政府的這一行動與部分州的立法方向一致。「懷俄明州近十年來一直積極擁抱數位資產，我們很高興看到聯邦政府開始追隨牛仔州的腳步。」 她同時表示，支持通過全面的穩定幣法案，建立明確的市場規則，並確保任何 CBDC 都能尊重美國人的隱私和金融自由。

US House Republicans launch "Crypto Week"

美国众议院共和党发动「加密货币周」！三大法案7月中表决

美國眾議院共和黨發動「加密貨幣週」！三大法案7月中表決  

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</div>&nbsp;Reportedly, U.S. President Trump is planning to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, a move that could trigger a devaluation of the U.S. dollar. If Trump were to dismiss Powell, the experience of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's interference in central bank operations serves as a cautionary tale. It led to a currency collapse and increased investment in Bitcoin and stablecoins.&nbsp;If President Trump actually carries out his reported plan to fire Fed Chairman Powell, further driving down the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the U.S. stock market, investors might accelerate their shift away from the dollar towards censorship-resistant and seizure-resistant assets like Bitcoin and stablecoins.&nbsp;Turkey's experience offers a significant lesson. Due to President Erdogan's repeated interventions in the central bank's operations, the Turkish Lira (TRY) has steadily depreciated over the years. Since 2020-21, the Lira's devaluation has triggered capital flight into Bitcoin and stablecoins.&nbsp;<h3>Trump's Potential Dismissal of Powell: Trump's Conflict with the Fed</h3>&nbsp;Trump has publicly feuded with the Federal Reserve and its Chairman Powell for years, criticizing Powell for being too slow to cut interest rates. However, Trump's recent criticism has reached a fever pitch, with reports indicating that he is exploring ways to remove Powell. Powell recently warned of the risk of stagflation, while the President reiterated his demand for lower borrowing costs and suggested that inflation is not a concern.&nbsp;Powell's cautious approach stems from survey data regarding inflation expectations triggered by trade wars, expectations that could become self-fulfilling. However, recently, Trump went further, calling Powell a "big loser" and warning that the economy could slow down unless interest rates are cut immediately.&nbsp;Lessons Learned from Turkey&nbsp;Erdogan began interfering with the central bank's operations in 2019, and since then, the Lira has plummeted against the dollar from 5.3 to 38.&nbsp;It all began in 2017 when Turkey's inflation rate reached double digits. The following year, inflation remained high, prompting the country's central bank to raise the one-week repo rate from 17.5% to 24% in September 2018.&nbsp;This move was likely against Erdogan's wishes, and in July 2019, he issued his first decree, firing the Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey, Murat Cetinkaya. From then until the end of 2021, Erdogan issued multiple decrees, dismissing and appointing numerous Turkish central bank officials. Throughout this period, inflation remained high, and the Lira continued to depreciate at an alarming rate.&nbsp;Erdogan stated in 2021: "We are definitely against high interest rates. We will reduce inflation and exchange rates through low interest rate policies… High interest rates make the rich richer and the poor poorer. We will not allow this to happen."&nbsp;According to TradingEconomics data, as of 2025, Turkey's inflation rate is near 40%. This experience serves as a warning for Trump, highlighting how interfering with central bank independence – especially in the face of looming inflation – can undermine investor confidence and lead to a collapse of the national currency.&nbsp;This doesn't necessarily mean the dollar will collapse like the Lira, but a significant devaluation is possible.&nbsp;Given that the dollar is the world's reserve currency and the U.S. Treasury market is a cornerstone of international finance, such a move could create even greater instability in global markets. If wiser counsel does not prevail, U.S. investors, like the Turks, may be incentivized to move capital out of U.S. assets and into Bitcoin and other alternative investments.&nbsp;Worth noting: Earlier this week, the dollar fell to a three-year low, and Wall Street also declined in tandem, but Bitcoin, which usually follows Wall Street's sentiment, bucked the trend and rose. (Specific Bitcoin price data should be added here to quantify the increase.) Is this just the beginning?&nbsp;

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</div>&nbsp;美国总统特朗普据传计划解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，此举可能引发美元贬值。特朗普欲解雇鲍威尔，可参考土耳其总统埃尔多安（Recep Tayyip Erdogan）干预央行运作的经验则是一个警示案例，它导致了货币崩溃，并增加了对比特币和稳定币的投资。&nbsp;&nbsp;若特朗普总统真的执行其据传的计划，解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，进一步推低美元指数(DXY)和美国股市，则投资者可能加速从美元转向比特币和稳定币等抗没收和抗审查的资产。&nbsp;土耳其的经验提供了重要教训。由于总统艾尔段多次干预央行运作，土耳其里拉(TRY)多年来持续贬值。自2020-21年以来，里拉的贬值已引发资本外逃，流向比特币和稳定币。&nbsp;<h3>特朗普欲解雇鲍威尔？ 特朗普与美联储的矛盾</h3>&nbsp;特朗普多年来一直公开与美联储及其主席鲍威尔发生争执，批评鲍威尔在减息方面反应过慢。然而，最近特朗普的批评达到高潮，有报导称他正在寻找解雇鲍威尔的方法。鲍威尔最近警告存在滞胀的风险，而总统则重申要求降低借贷成本，并暗示不存在通货膨胀。&nbsp;鲍威尔的谨慎做法是出于对贸易战引发的通货膨胀预期调查数据的反应，这些预期数据总是可能自我实现。然而，近日，特朗普更进一步，称鲍威尔是「大输家」，并警告说，除非立即降低利率，否则经济可能会放缓。&nbsp;<h3>从土耳其汲取的教训</h3>&nbsp;埃尔多安从2019年开始干预央行运作，从那以后，里拉兑美元汇率从5.3暴跌至38。&nbsp;这一切始于2017年土耳其的通货膨胀率达到两位数。随后一年，通货膨胀率居高不下，促使该国央行在2018年9月将一周回购利率从17.5%提高到24%。&nbsp;此举可能与埃尔多安的意愿相悖，他在2019年7月发布第一道法令，解雇了土耳其央行行长 Murat Cetinkaya 。从那时起直到2021年底，埃尔多安发布了多道法令，解雇和任命了多名土耳其央行官员。在此期间，通货膨胀率居高不下，里拉持续以惊人的速度贬值。&nbsp;埃尔多安在2021年表示：「我们当然不相信高利率。我们将通过低利率政策来降低通货膨胀和汇率……高利率使富人更富，穷人更穷。我们不会让这种情况发生。」&nbsp;根据TradingEconomics的数据，截至2025年，土耳其的通货膨胀率接近40%。这段经历为特朗普敲响了警钟，突显出干预央行独立性——尤其是在通货膨胀即将到来的情况下——可能会损害投资者信心，并导致本国货币暴跌。&nbsp;这并不一定意味着美元会像里拉一样崩溃，但可能会出现大幅贬值。&nbsp;鉴于美元是全球储备货币，而美国国库券市场是国际金融的基石，此举甚至可能对全球市场造成更大的不稳定。如果明智之举未能占据上风，美国投资者可能会像土耳其人一样，有动力将资金从美国资产转移到比特币和其他另类投资。&nbsp;值得关注的是：本周初，美元跌至三年低点，华尔街也同步下跌，但通常追随华尔街情绪的比特币却逆势上涨。 （此处应补充比特币的具体价格数据，以量化其涨幅。） 这是否仅仅是个开始？

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</div>&nbsp;美國總統特朗普據傳計劃解僱美聯儲主席鮑威爾，此舉可能引發美元貶值。特朗普欲解僱鮑威爾，可參考土耳其總統埃爾多安（Recep Tayyip Erdogan）干預央行運作的經驗則是一個警示案例，它導致了貨幣崩潰，並增加了對比特幣和穩定幣的投資。&nbsp;即加入<a href="https://t.me/+l--9PJpFdIgxOTk9">CFTime TG 討論區</a>！想掌握最新加密市場動態與 AI 新聞與資訊，更能隨時獲得免費 web 3入場券！&nbsp;若特朗普總統真的執行其據傳的計劃，解僱美聯儲主席鮑威爾，進一步推低美元指數(DXY)和美國股市，則投資者可能加速從美元轉向比特幣和穩定幣等抗沒收和抗審查的資產。&nbsp;土耳其的經驗提供了重要教訓。由於總統艾爾段多次干預央行運作，土耳其里拉(TRY)多年來持續貶值。自2020-21年以來，里拉的貶值已引發資本外逃，流向比特幣和穩定幣。&nbsp;<h3>特朗普欲解僱鮑威爾？ 特朗普與美聯儲的矛盾</h3>&nbsp;特朗普多年來一直公開與美聯儲及其主席鮑威爾發生爭執，批評鮑威爾在減息方面反應過慢。然而，最近特朗普的批評達到高潮，有報導稱他正在尋找解僱鮑威爾的方法。鮑威爾最近警告存在滯脹的風險，而總統則重申要求降低借貸成本，並暗示不存在通貨膨脹。&nbsp;鮑威爾的謹慎做法是出於對貿易戰引發的通貨膨脹預期調查數據的反應，這些預期數據總是可能自我實現。然而，近日，特朗普更進一步，稱鮑威爾是「大輸家」，並警告說，除非立即降低利率，否則經濟可能會放緩。&nbsp;<h3>從土耳其汲取的教訓</h3>&nbsp;埃爾多安從2019年開始干預央行運作，從那以後，里拉兌美元匯率從5.3暴跌至38。&nbsp;這一切始於2017年土耳其的通貨膨脹率達到兩位數。隨後一年，通貨膨脹率居高不下，促使該國央行在2018年9月將一周回購利率從17.5%提高到24%。&nbsp;此舉可能與埃爾多安的意願相悖，他在2019年7月發布第一道法令，解僱了土耳其央行行長 Murat Cetinkaya 。從那時起直到2021年底，埃爾多安發布了多道法令，解僱和任命了多名土耳其央行官員。在此期間，通貨膨脹率居高不下，里拉持續以驚人的速度貶值。&nbsp;埃爾多安在2021年表示：「我們當然不相信高利率。我們將通過低利率政策來降低通貨膨脹和匯率……高利率使富人更富，窮人更窮。我們不會讓這種情況發生。」&nbsp;根據TradingEconomics的數據，截至2025年，土耳其的通貨膨脹率接近40%。這段經歷為特朗普敲響了警鐘，突顯出干預央行獨立性——尤其是在通貨膨脹即將到來的情況下——可能會損害投資者信心，並導致本國貨幣暴跌。&nbsp;這並不一定意味著美元會像里拉一樣崩潰，但可能會出現大幅貶值。&nbsp;鑑於美元是全球儲備貨幣，而美國國庫券市場是國際金融的基石，此舉甚至可能對全球市場造成更大的不穩定。如果明智之舉未能佔據上風，美國投資者可能會像土耳其人一樣，有動力將資金從美國資產轉移到比特幣和其他另類投資。&nbsp;值得關注的是：本週初，美元跌至三年低點，華爾街也同步下跌，但通常追隨華爾街情緒的比特幣卻逆勢上漲。（此處應補充比特幣的具體價格數據，以量化其漲幅。） 這是否僅僅是個開始？

What would happen to crypto if Trump fired Powell?

如特朗普解雇鲍威尔 对加密货币带来什么后果

如特朗普解僱鮑威爾 對加密貨幣帶來什麼後果 

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</div>&nbsp;Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of this year. Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Asset Research, reiterated his long-term forecast that Bitcoin will break through the $200,000 mark by the end of 2025. He believes that despite facing short-term uncertainties related to tariffs left over from the Trump administration and the risk of economic recession, these factors actually strengthen his bullish outlook for Bitcoin.&nbsp;Kendrick's analysis points out that the recent decline in Bitcoin's price is approaching the $69,000 to $76,500 range seen after the November 6, 2024 election. He compared Bitcoin's 30-day implied annualized volatility (currently at 55%) with the US "Magnificent Seven" (big tech stocks) and found that, after adjusting for volatility, Bitcoin's decline since President Trump took office is in line with these seven tech stocks.&nbsp;He stated, "I would say that, after adjusting for volatility, Bitcoin's trading is indeed firmly within this group of seven tech stocks plus Bitcoin." This suggests that Bitcoin's recent weakness reflects the weakness of overall risk assets, rather than a problem specific to Bitcoin. Among them, Tesla has fallen the most, while Meta and Apple have performed relatively well, and the trends of other stocks are similar to Bitcoin.<h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3>Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin to Rise Due to Economic Uncertainty</h3>&nbsp;Kendrick believes that there are two potential catalysts for market recovery: clarification of tariff issues (low probability) or accelerated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (probability of a rate cut at the May meeting rising from 50% to 75%, higher probability). He warned that if Bitcoin falls below the support level of $76,500 (November 6 high), it could quickly drop to $69,000. However, Kendrick emphasized that his long-term forecast remains unshaken, and he believes that economic uncertainty increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, which in turn strengthens his long-term expectation that Bitcoin will reach $200,000.&nbsp;Rock Zhang, founder and CEO of Network3 (an AI Layer2 platform), added context regarding the macroeconomic environment. He pointed out that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates early, and it is associated with recession indicators such as rising unemployment or slowing consumer spending, it could trigger concerns about a stock market downturn. He believes that the Fed's actions will depend on whether the rate cut is seen as a proactive measure or a response to recession indicators, which will affect market dynamics, and this may benefit Bitcoin in the long run.&nbsp;Therefore, despite increased short-term volatility, Standard Chartered maintains its optimistic forecast for Bitcoin, believing that it will overcome short-term risks and ultimately reach its target price of $200,000 by the end of 2025.&nbsp;

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</div>&nbsp;渣打预测比特币今年底将达20万美元。渣打银行数位资产研究全球主管Geoffrey Kendrick重申其长期预测：比特币将在2025年底突破20万美元大关。他认为，尽管短期内面临特朗普政府时期遗留的关税不确定性及经济衰退风险，这些因素反而强化了他对比特币的看涨预期。&nbsp;Kendrick的分析指出，近期比特币价格下跌，逼近2024年11月6日大选后69,000美元至76,500美元的区间。他将比特币30天隐含年化波动率（目前为55%）与美国「Magnificent Seven」(七大科技股) 作比较，发现经过波动率调整后，自特朗普总统就职以来，比特币的跌幅与这七大科技股相符。&nbsp;他表示：「我会说，在经过波动率调整后，比特币的交易确实稳固地处于这七大科技股加上比特币的群组内。」 这暗示比特币的近期疲软反映的是整体风险资产的弱势，而非比特币自身的问题。其中，特斯拉跌幅最大，Meta和苹果表现相对较佳，其他股票走势则与比特币相似。&nbsp;<h3>渣打预测比特币因经济不确定性而上升</h3>&nbsp;Kendrick认为，市场复苏的潜在催化剂有二：关税问题明朗化（可能性低）或美联储加速减息（5月份会议减息机率从50%上升至75%，可能性较高）。他警告，若比特币跌破76,500美元（11月6日高点）的支撑位，可能迅速跌至69,000美元。但Kendrick强调，他的长期预测并未因此动摇，反而认为经济不确定性增加了美联储减息的机率，进而强化了他比特币将达20万美元的长期预期。&nbsp;Network3（一个AI Layer2平台）的创始人兼行政总裁Rock Zhang补充说明了宏观经济环境。他指出，如果美联储提前减息，且与失业率上升或消费者支出放缓等衰退指标相关联，则可能引发股市下跌的担忧。 他认为，美联储的行动将取决于减息被视为主动措施还是对衰退指标的反应，进而影响市场动态，而这可能从长远来看有利于比特币。&nbsp;因此，尽管短期波动加剧，渣打仍维持其对比特币的乐观预测，认为其将克服短期风险，最终在2025年底达到20万美元的目标价位。

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</div>&nbsp;渣打預測比特幣今年底將達20萬美元。渣打銀行數位資產研究全球主管<a href="https://cftime.io/experts-predict-bitcoin-price-could-drop-to-80k/">Geoffrey Kendrick</a>重申其長期預測：比特幣將在2025年底突破20萬美元大關。他認為，儘管短期內面臨特朗普政府時期遺留的關稅不確定性及經濟衰退風險，這些因素反而強化了他對比特幣的看漲預期。&nbsp;Kendrick的分析指出，近期比特幣價格下跌，逼近2024年11月6日大選後69,000美元至76,500美元的區間。他將比特幣30天隱含年化波動率（目前為55%）與美國「Magnificent Seven」(七大科技股) 作比較，發現經過波動率調整後，自<a href="https://cftime.io/trumps-tariff-policy-hits-the-market/">特朗普</a>總統就職以來，比特幣的跌幅與這七大科技股相符。&nbsp;他表示：「我會說，在經過波動率調整後，比特幣的交易確實穩固地處於這七大科技股加上比特幣的群組內。」 這暗示比特幣的近期疲軟反映的是整體風險資產的弱勢，而非比特幣自身的問題。其中，特斯拉跌幅最大，Meta和蘋果表現相對較佳，其他股票走勢則與比特幣相似。&nbsp;<h3>渣打預測比特幣因經濟不確定性而上升</h3>&nbsp;Kendrick認為，市場復甦的潛在催化劑有二：關稅問題明朗化（可能性低）或美聯儲加速減息（5月份會議減息機率從50%上升至75%，可能性較高）。他警告，若比特幣跌破76,500美元（11月6日高點）的支撐位，可能迅速跌至69,000美元。但Kendrick強調，他的長期預測並未因此動搖，反而認為經濟不確定性增加了美聯儲減息的機率，進而強化了他比特幣將達20萬美元的長期預期。&nbsp;Network3（一個AI Layer2平台）的創始人兼行政總裁Rock Zhang補充說明了宏觀經濟環境。他指出，如果美聯儲提前減息，且與失業率上升或消費者支出放緩等衰退指標相關聯，則可能引發股市下跌的擔憂。 他認為，美聯儲的行動將取決於減息被視為主動措施還是對衰退指標的反應，進而影響市場動態，而這可能從長遠來看有利於比特幣。&nbsp;因此，儘管短期波動加劇，渣打仍維持其對比特幣的樂觀預測，認為其將克服短期風險，最終在2025年底達到20萬美元的目標價位。

Standard Chartered predicts BTC 200K

经济不确定性增反利好 渣打预测比特币今年底将达20万美元

經濟不確定性增反利好 渣打預測比特幣今年底將達20萬美元

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</div>The Trump administration is considering appointing Robinhood’s general counsel Dan Gallagher as the new SEC chairman, which could bring major changes to U.S. securities regulation.The Trump administration's transformation team is considering a group of corporate lawyers and Republican regulators for leadership roles at financial institutions and will provide a final, shortened list in the coming days, Reuters reported.On this list, Gallagher and former SEC committee member Paul Atkins are among the candidates for SEC chairman. Gallagher, Robinhood's legal secretary, is a former SEC committee member who voted for easy stock redemption rules while in office.This consideration is clearly favored by cryptocurrency supporters, a group that contributed significantly to Trump’s campaign. These committee members hope that when Gallagher serves as SEC chairman, he will push for a more friendly cryptocurrency regulatory direction than the policies adopted by current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.Additionally, Robert Stebbins, a partner at law firm Willkie Farr &amp; Gallagher who served as SEC general counsel in the previous Trump administration, is also a potential candidate for a leadership position at the SEC. Although Gensler's term will last until 2026, he has signaled that he will leave when the next administration takes office.It is worth noting that despite being well-known in the cryptocurrency industry, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has no intention of running for the position of SEC Chairman.Trump has made it clear that he will eliminate "onerous" regulatory measures, and the focus of reforms is expected to be on the recently enacted Basel rules, which increased capital requirements for large banks, as well as other regulations implemented by the Biden administration. measure. While Trump could immediately replace acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu on his first day in office, changes to the Fed's regulatory arm and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) may take longer to implement.Potential candidates for the bank's top job include Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, who has advocated for loosening bank regulations, and Travis Hill, vice chair of the FDIC's board of directors. Jonathan Gould, the former senior deputy commissioner of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, is also under consideration.Trump, whose campaign received strong support from the cryptocurrency industry, has promised to promote Bitcoin and overhaul the SEC's regulatory model. Trump's national press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said the president-elect will announce appointments soon.

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</div>特朗普政府正在考虑选任Robinhood公司的法律长Dan Gallagher担任新SEC主席，这可能会对美国的证券监管带来重大转变。据路透报导，特朗普政府的转型团队正在考虑一群企业律师和共和党监管人士担任金融机构的领导角色，并将在近日提供一份最终的缩短名单。在这份名单中，Gallagher和前SEC委员会成员Paul Atkins是SEC主席候选人之一。 Gallagher是Robinhood的法律部长，他是SEC的前委员会成员，在职时曾投票支持轻松的股票赎回规则。这项考虑显然受到加密货币支持者的青睐，这个群体在特朗普的竞选中显著地贡献了资金。这些委员希望，Gallagher 在担任SEC主席时，会推动一个比目前SEC主席 Gary Gensler 采取的政策更为友善的加密货币监管方向。此外，Willkie Farr &amp; Gallagher 律师事务所合伙人 Robert Stebbins 也是 SEC 领导职位的潜在人选，他曾在特朗普前政府担任 SEC 总法律顾问。尽管 Gensler 的任期将持续至 2026 年，但他已暗示将在下一任政府上任时离职。值得注意的是，SEC 委员 Hester Peirce 尽管在加密货币产业享有盛誉，但她本人并无意愿角逐 SEC 主席一职。特朗普已明确表示将取消「繁重」的监管措施，预计改革重点将锁定近期制定的巴塞尔协议(Basel rules)——该协议提高了大型银行的资本要求，以及拜登政府实施的其他监管措施。虽然特朗普可在就职第一天即刻撤换代理货币监理署长 Michael Hsu，但联准会监管部门和联邦存款保险公司 (FDIC) 的改革可能需要更长时间才能落实。潜在的银行高层人选包括联准会理事 Michelle Bowman（她一直倡导放宽银行监管）以及 FDIC 董事会副主席 Travis Hill。前货币监理署高级副署长 Jonathan Gould 也在考虑之列。特朗普的竞选活动获得加密货币产业的大力支持，他曾承诺将推动比特币并彻底改革 SEC 的监管模式。特朗普的国家新闻秘书 Karoline Leavitt 表示，总统当选人将很快公布人事任命。

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</div>特朗普政府正在考慮選任Robinhood公司的法律長Dan Gallagher擔任新SEC主席，這可能會對美國的證券監管帶來重大轉變。據路透報導，特朗普政府的轉型團隊正在考慮一群企業律師和共和黨監管人士擔任金融機構的領導角色，並將在近日提供一份最終的縮短名單。在這份名單中，Gallagher和前SEC委員會成員Paul Atkins是SEC主席候選人之一。Gallagher是Robinhood的法律部長，他是SEC的前委員會成員，在職時曾投票支持輕鬆的股票贖回規則。這項考慮顯然受到加密貨幣支持者的青睞，這個群體在特朗普的競選中顯著地貢獻了資金。這些委員希望，Gallagher 在擔任SEC主席時，會推動一個比目前SEC主席 Gary Gensler 採取的政策更為友善的加密貨幣監管方向。此外，Willkie Farr &amp; Gallagher 律師事務所合夥人 Robert Stebbins 也是 SEC 領導職位的潛在人選，他曾在特朗普前政府擔任 SEC 總法律顧問。儘管 Gensler 的任期將持續至 2026 年，但他已暗示將在下一任政府上任時離職。值得注意的是，SEC 委員 Hester Peirce 儘管在加密貨幣產業享有盛譽，但她本人並無意願角逐 SEC 主席一職。特朗普已明確表示將取消「繁重」的監管措施，預計改革重點將鎖定近期制定的巴塞爾協議 (Basel rules)——該協議提高了大型銀行的資本要求，以及拜登政府實施的其他監管措施。雖然特朗普可在就職第一天即刻撤換代理貨幣監理署長 Michael Hsu，但聯準會監管部門和聯邦存款保險公司 (FDIC) 的改革可能需要更長時間才能落實。潛在的銀行高層人選包括聯準會理事 Michelle Bowman（她一直倡導放寬銀行監管）以及 FDIC 董事會副主席 Travis Hill。前貨幣監理署高級副署長 Jonathan Gould 也在考慮之列。特朗普的競選活動獲得加密貨幣產業的大力支持，他曾承諾將推動比特幣並徹底改革 SEC 的監管模式。特朗普的國家新聞秘書 Karoline Leavitt 表示，總統當選人將很快公布人事任命。

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