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</div></div><p>Fidelity Digital Assets has released a new research report indicating that Bitcoin is entering a new era dominated by scarcity. The report predicts that by the end of 2025, over 28% of the total Bitcoin supply (21 million coins) will be in a non-liquid state due to long-term holding and corporate ownership, meaning that Bitcoin will be locked away for an extended period.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Transition from Abundant Supply to Scarcity</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The report's author, Zack Wainwright, notes that as 95% of the total Bitcoin supply approaches circulation, the market is transitioning from an abundant supply to a scarce supply. The report identifies two main factors contributing to Bitcoin's non-liquidity: first, long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for more than seven years; and second, publicly traded companies holding at least 1,000 BTC. Wainwright estimates that these two categories of holders will collectively own over 6 million Bitcoins by the end of 2025.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Currently, publicly traded companies hold over 830,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 4% of the circulating supply, with 97% concentrated in companies holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins. However, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries, the combined holdings of public and private companies may be as high as 1.3 million Bitcoins, significantly exceeding the aforementioned figure.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Increasing Trend of Long-term Holders</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>By combining data from long-term holders and corporate holders, the report shows that the trend of Bitcoin holding is accelerating, with trading volumes relatively decreasing. Since the third quarter of 2024, publicly traded companies have actively allocated Bitcoin, further increasing the non-liquid supply.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Forecast for Non-liquid Assets by 2032</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Looking ahead, the Fidelity report predicts that by 2032, nearly 42% of the current circulating supply (over 8.3 million BTC) will become non-liquid assets. The report concludes that as more entities hold Bitcoin long-term, its scarcity will increasingly become a focal point of market attention. It also mentions that if the trend of national adoption of Bitcoin strengthens and the regulatory environment continues to evolve, the growth rate of non-liquid supply may be even more pronounced.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Although the report does not explicitly mention it, a similar trend is likely unfolding in the Ethereum market. Digital asset wallets have accumulated over 4% of the total Ethereum supply in just a few months, and since the launch of Ethereum ETFs last year, their absorption has exceeded 5.5% of the total supply.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>This report highlights significant changes in the Bitcoin market structure and the growing willingness of institutional investors to hold Bitcoin long-term, introducing new variables for Bitcoin's price movements and market supply-demand dynamics.</p>

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</div></div><p>富达数位资产（Fidelity Digital Assets）发表最新研究报告，指出比特币正迈向一个由稀缺性主导的新时代。报告预测，到2025年底，超过28%的比特币总供应量（2100万枚）将因长期持有及企业级持有而呈现非流动性状态，即比特币将被长期锁死。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>比特币将被长期锁死 「供应充裕到供应稀缺的转变」</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>报告作者Zack Wainwright指出，随着95%的比特币总供应量即将进入流通市场，市场正经历从供应充裕到供应稀缺的转变。 该报告将导致比特币非流动性的主要因素归纳为两类：一、持有时间超过七年的长期持有者；二、持有至少1,000枚BTC的上市公司。 Wainwright估计，这两类持有者到2025年底将合计持有超过600万枚比特币。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>目前，上市公司已持有超过83万枚比特币，占流通供应量的4%，其中97%集中在持有量超过1,000枚比特币的企业手中。 然而，若参考BitcoinTreasuries的数据，上市公司和非上市公司合计持有量可能高达130万枚比特币，远超前述数字。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>将长期持有者与企业持有者数据结合分析，报告显示比特币的持有趋势正在加速，交易量相对减少。 自2024年第三季度以来，上市公司财库积极配置比特币，进一步推高了非流动性供应量。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>料到2032年近42%的当前流通供应量 将成为非流动性资产</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>展望未来，富达报告预测，到2032年，近42%的当前流通供应量（超过830万枚BTC）将成为非流动性资产。 报告结论指出，随着更多实体长期持有比特币，其稀缺性将日益成为市场关注的焦点。 报告同时提到，若国家层面采用比特币的趋势加强，以及监管环境持续演变，则非流动性供应量的增长速度可能更加显著。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>报告虽未明确提及，但类似趋势很可能也正在以太坊（Ethereum）市场上演。 数位资产库在短短几个月内已累积超过4%的以太坊总供应量，而自去年以太坊ETF推出以来，其吸纳量更已超过总供应量的5.5%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>报告突显了比特币市场结构的重大变化，以及日益增长的机构投资者对比特币的长期持有意愿，为比特币的价格走势和市场供需关系带来新的变数。</p>

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</div></div><p>富達數位資產（Fidelity Digital Assets）<a href="https://fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/bitcoins-illiquid-supply-new-era-investors">發表最新研究報告</a>，指出比特幣正邁向一個由稀缺性主導的新時代。報告預測，到2025年底，超過28%的比特幣總供應量（2100萬枚）將因長期持有及企業級持有而呈現非流動性狀態，即比特幣將被長期鎖死。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>比特幣將被長期鎖死 「供應充裕到供應稀缺的轉變」</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>報告作者Zack Wainwright指出，隨著95%的比特幣總供應量即將進入流通市場，市場正經歷從供應充裕到供應稀缺的轉變。 該報告將導致比特幣非流動性的主要因素歸納為兩類：一、持有時間超過七年的長期持有者；二、持有至少1,000枚BTC的上市公司。 Wainwright估計，這兩類持有者到2025年底將合計持有超過600萬枚比特幣。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>目前，上市公司已持有超過83萬枚比特幣，佔流通供應量的4%，其中97%集中在持有量超過1,000枚比特幣的企業手中。 然而，若參考<a href="https://bitcointreasuries.net/">BitcoinTreasuries的數據</a>，上市公司和非上市公司合計持有量可能高達130萬枚比特幣，遠超前述數字。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>將長期持有者與企業持有者數據結合分析，報告顯示比特幣的持有趨勢正在加速，交易量相對減少。 自2024年第三季度以來，上市公司財庫積極配置比特幣，進一步推高了非流動性供應量。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>料到2032年近42%的當前流通供應量 將成為非流動性資產</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>展望未來，富達報告預測，到2032年，近42%的當前<a href="https://cftime.io/bitcoin-accumulation-plan/">流通供應量</a>（超過830萬枚BTC）將成為非流動性資產。 報告結論指出，隨著更多實體長期持有比特幣，其稀缺性將日益成為市場關注的焦點。 報告同時提到，若國家層面採用比特幣的趨勢加強，以及監管環境持續演變，則非流動性供應量的增長速度可能更加顯著。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>報告雖未明確提及，但類似趨勢很可能也正在以太坊（Ethereum）市場上演。 數位資產庫在短短幾個月內已累積超過4%的以太坊總供應量，而自去年以太坊ETF推出以來，其吸納量更已超過總供應量的5.5%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>報告突顯了比特幣市場結構的重大變化，以及日益增長的機構投資者對比特幣的長期持有意願，為比特幣的價格走勢和市場供需關係帶來新的變數。</p>

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