Quantum computing could crack Bitcoin
As quantum computing technology approaches the core encryption that secures Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency faces its most severe existential threat.
Quantum computing is no longer just a figment of science fiction or a dream of cryptopunks; it has become a real threat to the world’s first borderless currency. If you once believed that Satoshi Nakamoto's creation could escape existential risks, you may need to reconsider. A recent report from the Human Rights Foundation (HRF) has highlighted concerns from many Bitcoin holders and cryptographers.
Is Quantum Computing a Threat to Bitcoin?
HRF's detailed analysis indicates that Bitcoin is not merely a speculative asset, but an essential lifeline for activists, journalists, and dissenters facing financial oppression. The decentralized, private, and permissionless nature of Bitcoin enables the flow of donations while avoiding government seizures.
However, the security of all this relies on robust encryption technology, and quantum computing is the only technological breakthrough capable of dismantling these intangible protections. Quantum computing could put nearly $700 billion worth of Bitcoin at risk, with 4.49 million Bitcoins being secure only if their holders act swiftly to migrate them to quantum-resistant addresses.
Despite researchers being eager to roll out quantum-safe upgrades, progress in the Bitcoin world is slow, leading to fierce debates about whether to "burn" immovable coins (potentially affecting Bitcoin's neutrality) or risk being robbed by quantum thieves.
More importantly, quantum-safe transactions could exacerbate the blockchain's bloat, turning Bitcoin's scalability issue from a minor headache into an overwhelming migraine. This is not just a technical challenge; it tests whether the network is willing to evolve without undermining Bitcoin’s core attributes. Nic Carter, co-founder of Coin Metrics and a Bitcoin advocate, bluntly states:
“In my view, quantum computing poses the greatest risk to Bitcoin. This is a significant issue for many financial systems and other blockchains, but for Bitcoin, it is a unique and difficult challenge.”
How Many Bitcoins Are at Risk?
The HRF report reveals that approximately 6.5 million Bitcoins (nearly a third of all BTC) are currently vulnerable to so-called "long-range" quantum attacks. These attacks target older or reused address types. Theoretically, owners can protect 4.49 million Bitcoins by migrating their balances to quantum-resistant addresses.
However, this means that 1.7 million BTC, including the legendary 1.1 million belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto, would be frozen and potentially exposed to quantum thieves in the future. Quantum threats can mainly be categorized into two attack vectors: "long-range attacks" and "short-range attacks."
Long-range attacks target idle and reused addresses, exploiting exposed public keys, while short-range attacks use transaction windows to steal funds before confirmation, provided the attacker can compute the private key in real time.
Burn or Be Burned: Protocol Politics
The decentralized upgrade process of Bitcoin is its greatest asset, but it is also its biggest weakness on this issue. Unlike Apple's latest OS updates, Bitcoin does not automatically receive security patches. Achieving consensus often takes years rather than weeks.
The debate over "burn or steal" intensifies: Should developers burn coins susceptible to quantum attacks, freeze them, or allow quantum thieves to steal lost wallets? There is no consensus on this matter, which is not surprising for a project that values property rights, anti-censorship, and anti-governance. The report concludes:
“Upgrading Bitcoin to withstand quantum threats is both a human challenge and a cryptographic challenge. Any successful soft fork integrating quantum-resistant signature schemes will require user education, thoughtful user interface design, and coordination within a global ecosystem that includes users, developers, hardware manufacturers, node operators, and civil society.”
New Algorithms, Bigger Blocks, and New Challenges
Transitioning to quantum-resistant algorithms is not just a technical add-on. HRF highlights two categories of solutions: lattice-based and hash-based signature schemes, each with different trade-offs. Larger keys mean bulkier transactions, fewer transactions per block, heavier full nodes, and new challenges in the Bitcoin scaling wars.
As a reference, lattice-based signatures are about ten times the size of current signatures, while the most streamlined hash-based alternatives are about 38 times larger. Each technical fix will require wallet redesigns, hardware updates, retraining of node operators, and user education on a global scale.
The community must coordinate among coders, wallet builders, advocacy groups, and millions of skeptical holders (many of whom may not even know their coins are at risk). History shows that even friendly upgrades can take years to pass, and with the timeline for quantum computing still uncertain, the window for action may close faster than anticipated.
Future Outlook: Resilience or Ruin?
Any lasting solution will require grassroots support, not just GitHub commits. The fate of forgotten Bitcoins (and potentially the legitimacy of the entire ecosystem) hinges on how the network responds to these political, technical, and social challenges over the next decade.
For Bitcoin's rebels, cryptopunks, and involuntary exiles, the message is clear: continuous education, ongoing upgrades, and do not assume Satoshi's armor is permanently bulletproof. As Bitcoin security expert, core developer, and co-founder of Casa, Jameson Lopp warns, an even greater threat than quantum computing is apathy:
“If people are indifferent to ongoing discussions about improving Bitcoin, it will become vulnerable and more susceptible to new threats.”
