The truth about the crypto market one year after Trump's inauguration
One year into President Donald Trump's term, the "cryptocurrency president" aura that was once highly anticipated by his supporters has dimmed. Market data shows that over the past year, Bitcoin has dropped about 15%, Ethereum has fallen approximately 8%, and most altcoins have experienced severe declines of 70% to 90%. This comprehensive downturn has forced the industry to reassess the significant gap between political expectations and market realities.
One Year into Trump's Presidency: Market Performance from Euphoria to a Severe Bear Market
According to CoinGecko data, since January 20, 2025:
- Bitcoin: After peaking at a historic high of $126,000 in October 2025, it is now around $91,000, reflecting an annual decline of approximately 15%.
- Ethereum: It has fallen from a near $5,000 high in August 2025 to about $3,100 now, with an annual drop of around 8%.
- Major altcoins: XRP has dropped nearly 40% (currently slightly below $2), and Solana has halved by over 50% (currently around $129).
Analyst Ted Pillows noted that the declines have intensified as market capitalization shrinks: other large tokens have experienced declines of 50%-60%, medium tokens have dropped 70%-80%, and small and meme coins have fallen by about 90%.
Political Expectations Fall Flat: Geopolitics Overrule Regulatory Optimism
Despite initial market optimism regarding clearer regulations following Trump's re-election in November 2024—where institutions like Bybit even predicted a "transformative period"—geopolitical and trade policies have dominated market sentiment over the past year.
The Trump administration has repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs on China and the European Union, triggering market volatility and stifling Bitcoin's upward momentum. For instance, after confirming new tariffs on several European countries, the total market liquidation reached approximately $871 million in a single day.
Slow Regulatory Progress: Personnel Appointments Fail to Reverse the Downtrend
Although Trump appointed pro-cryptocurrency officials, such as SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, the impact of macro events far outweighed expected regulatory clarity. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse admitted in a December 2024 interview that while the crypto community embraced Trump, market performance shows that political support is just one among many factors.
Market Reflection: The Limitations of Political Narratives
This week’s performance highlights a harsh reality of the crypto market: while political narratives can ignite short-term sentiment, they cannot withstand structural pressures from macroeconomics and geopolitics. In the context of a strong dollar, trade conflicts, and global growth slowdowns, crypto assets—as high-risk assets—have become the first area for capital withdrawal.
Future Outlook: Depoliticized Value Reevaluation
As the "cryptocurrency president" narrative fades, market attention may return to the fundamentals, including capital flows into Bitcoin ETFs, institutional adoption rates, on-chain activity, and broader global liquidity conditions. This deep correction may also prompt investors to distinguish the causal relationship between "policy-friendly" and "price increase," driving more rational asset pricing.
