Moody's downgrades US credit rating. What impact will it have on Bitcoin?
Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, ending a century of top-tier status, sent shockwaves through the market and highlighted Bitcoin's potential as a hedge against fiscal risks. Following similar downgrades by S&P (2011) and Fitch (2023), Moody's action reflects the US's growing fiscal deficit, rising interest payments, and a lack of effective fiscal reforms. Moody's further warned that continuing Trump-era tax cuts could push the US deficit to 9% of GDP by 2035.
The announcement immediately drove up US Treasury yields and caused a slight dip in equity futures. The White House attributed the downgrade to political motivations, citing ongoing Congressional negotiations on a $3.8 trillion tax and spending package.
Ironically, the downgrade bolstered the argument for Bitcoin as a safe haven asset. On-chain data reveals a continued decline in Bitcoin supply on exchanges. After a brief rise from 1.42 million to 1.43 million between May 2nd and 7th, the supply fell back to 1.41 million, indicating investor preference for long-term holding over selling and easing market sell-off pressure. This trend mirrors the earlier decline from 1.47 million to 1.42 million between April 17th and May 2nd.
In summary, while Bitcoin's price remains in a short-term consolidation phase, the long-term impact of the US credit rating downgrade could significantly enhance Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against fiscal instability and sovereign risk.
