Bitcoin's four-year cycle theory is dead?

Bitwise investment director Matt Hougan recently made a startling prediction: the Bitcoin bull run might be delayed until 2026, implying the death of the four-year Bitcoin cycle. This prediction immediately sparked heated debate in the market, as other analysts hold differing views on Bitcoin's price trajectory. Some believe Bitcoin will deviate from historical patterns, while others predict it will follow the halving cycle, peaking in the coming months.

Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $118,169, with an increase of over 10% in the past 30 days. In a Friday X video, Hougan stated, "I think 2026 is going to be a year where Bitcoin's price goes up, and we might be in for a good few years." He argues that the traditional four-year halving cycle is invalidated, citing reasons such as the diminishing halving effect (halving impact decreases by half every four years) and favorable interest rate cycles. Since April, US President Trump has continuously pressured Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to cut interest rates, a potential positive for Bitcoin as lower rates reduce the attractiveness of traditional assets like bonds and fixed deposits to investors.

Hougan further points out that the risk of a significant Bitcoin price correction has lessened due to a clearer regulatory environment and continued institutional investment. "The bust risk has diminished because of regulatory improvement and the institutionalization of the industry," he emphasized. He suggests that the early stages of institutional investment and ongoing regulatory processes hint at a higher-than-historical-trend upside potential for Bitcoin within this cycle. He concludes, "The long-term forces favoring Bitcoin will overwhelm the traditional 'four-year cycle' forces, and 2026 will be a good year."

Bitcoin Bull Run Delayed to 2026, but "Significant Cyclical Risks Remain"

However, Hougan acknowledges significant cyclical risks remain, primarily stemming from the rise of Bitcoin-holding companies. "This is something to watch, and it's a big deal," he said. Asset management firm VanEck echoed similar concerns, warning that companies accumulating Bitcoin through issuing new shares or taking on debt face extremely high risks, even potential liquidity crunches, during a significant Bitcoin price drop.

Hougan predicts that Bitcoin's price gains will be steady rather than explosive in the short term. "I think this is more of a 'sustained steady boom' than a supercycle," he added. "I could be wrong, and I'm sure there will be significant volatility."

Analysis: The Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Theory No Longer Applies

Hougan's perspective resonates with other recent market players. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also believes the Bitcoin four-year cycle theory is "dead." He stated, "My prediction was based on this theory—buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But this pattern no longer applies. In the last cycle, whales sold to retail; this time, old whales sold to new long-term whales. Institutional investment is bigger than we thought."

However, not all analysts agree. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital cautions that if Bitcoin follows the 2020 historical pattern, its price expansion might only have a few months left, potentially peaking in October (550 days after the April 2024 halving).