Bitcoin price could hit new all-time high in May
Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, rising 11% between April 20th and 26th, and maintaining its price near two-month highs of approximately $94,000. This rally follows signals from the Trump administration hinting at relaxed import tariffs, coupled with strong corporate earnings reports.
Investor confidence has been further boosted by record net inflows into spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), totaling $3.1 billion over five days. However, a key BTC derivatives indicator is signaling bearish momentum, raising questions about the feasibility of the $100,000 target.
Selling Pressure Indicator Shows Continued Volatility
Perpetual Bitcoin futures contracts are favored by retail investors due to their close price correlation with the spot market. A positive funding rate implies that buyers must pay fees to maintain their positions, thus a rate reversal is often associated with a bearish trend.
The sharp negative funding rate recorded on April 26th is extremely rare during bull markets, indicating stronger selling pressure. The indicator has shown continued volatility since April 14th, but Bitcoin's price breaking through $94,000 caught sellers off guard. Over $450 million in BTC short positions have been liquidated since April 21st.
Part of Bitcoin's price recovery and strong performance can be attributed to the S&P 500 index's 7.1% gain for the week. However, despite market optimism, U.S. President Trump's April 25th statement that negotiations are contingent on Chinese concessions has raised concerns among traders about the sustainability of recent gains.
Companies are currently releasing first-quarter earnings reports from before the escalation of the trade war, so the factors driving the stock market and Bitcoin differ. In fact, the correlation between Bitcoin's price and the S&P 500 index has significantly decreased.
Currently, the 30-day correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin is 29%, far lower than the 60% level observed from mid-March to mid-April. While a decreased correlation does not represent a complete decoupling, as investor sentiment is still influenced by macroeconomic factors, it does indicate that Bitcoin is not merely a substitute for tech stocks.
Bitcoin's Status as an Independent Asset Reinforced
Gold's failure to maintain bullish momentum after reaching an all-time high of $3,500 on April 22nd is also seen as an important indicator of Bitcoin's status as an independent asset class. Some traders have questioned the "digital gold" narrative, but BTC's continued maintenance above $90,000 will continue to boost investor confidence, potentially paving the way for further gains.
The increased demand for bearish leverage in perpetual BTC futures is not consistent with the views of professional traders. Monthly Bitcoin futures contracts avoid volatile funding rates, allowing traders to understand leverage costs in advance.
On April 26th, the two-month Bitcoin futures premium (benchmark rate) rose to its highest level in seven weeks, indicating increased interest in bullish positions. At 6.5%, the indicator remains in the neutral range (5% to 10%), but is moving away from the bearish zone.
Discrepancies in leverage demand between perpetual futures and monthly BTC contracts are not uncommon. Even if retail investors remain cautious, large accumulations by institutions may still be enough to push Bitcoin's price above $100,000 in the short term.
