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</div></div><p>Traditional financial giant Goldman Sachs has recently significantly increased its cryptocurrency asset holdings, with a total valuation of $2.36 billion. Although this accounts for only 0.33% of its total investment portfolio, Goldman Sachs' cryptocurrency holdings clearly show that mainstream financial institutions are cautiously yet steadily incorporating digital assets into their long-term strategic allocations, reflecting a maturing structural confidence in this asset class.</p><h3><strong>Holding Strategy: Prudent Allocation and Diversification</strong></h3><p>Goldman Sachs' cryptocurrency investment strategy demonstrates a typical institutional approach:</p><ul><li><strong>Significant Scale but Manageable Proportion:</strong> While the $2.36 billion holding amount is substantial, it represents a small portion of its overall asset allocation, indicating a cautious balance between exploring potential returns and managing volatility risks.</li><li><strong>Portfolio Diversification:</strong> Although the specific composition is not publicly disclosed, it is known that Goldman Sachs has spread its exposure across various digital assets rather than concentrating on a single cryptocurrency, which helps mitigate risks associated with specific projects.</li><li><strong>Evolution from Services to Direct Investment:</strong> Goldman Sachs initially entered the market by offering Bitcoin futures and options trading services to clients and gradually shifted toward direct investment. This path aligns with the evolution of the regulatory environment and increasing institutional acceptance of digital assets.</li></ul><h3><strong>Background Analysis: Regulation, Infrastructure, and Liquidity Facilitate the Shift</strong></h3><p>Goldman Sachs' strategic shift is a microcosm of a broader trend toward institutional adoption. While traditional financial institutions were originally cautious regarding cryptocurrencies, the increasing clarity of regulations, improvements in institutional-grade infrastructure, and enhanced market liquidity have led mainstream institutions to more seriously evaluate the role of digital assets in their portfolios.</p><p>Goldman Sachs' choice to significantly increase its holdings at this time indicates a growing internal consensus that digital assets will play a continual role in the future financial system, with long-term prospects potentially more optimistic than in the past.</p><h3><strong>Market Impact: Symbolic Significance Over Capital Scale</strong></h3><p>The market impact of Goldman Sachs' increased holdings is more a symbolic signal rather than a reflection of the capital scale itself. As one of Wall Street's most influential institutions, its publicly disclosed holding trends may create a demonstration effect, encouraging other still-cautious institutional investors to follow suit.</p><p>This move is likely to:</p><ul><li><strong>Boost Market Sentiment:</strong> Reinforce the perception of cryptocurrencies as legitimate asset classes.</li><li><strong>Stimulate Trading Volumes:</strong> Potentially drive trading activity for mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as other mature assets like Ripple (XRP).</li><li><strong>Generate More Institutional-Grade Products:</strong> Promote the development of custody, asset management, and derivatives services, further integrating the crypto space with traditional finance.</li></ul><h3><strong>Long-Term Insights: Institutionalization Process Is Irreversible</strong></h3><p>Goldman Sachs' prudent approach provides a blueprint for other institutional investors: risk assessment, diversification, and a long-term perspective are crucial when entering the cryptocurrency market. Although their holding growth positively impacts market sentiment, investors should pay closer attention to the long-term trend it represents—the institutionalization, professionalization, and compliance processes within the crypto market are now irreversible, fundamentally reshaping the market's liquidity structure, volatility characteristics, and pricing logic.</p>

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</div></div><p>最近，传统金融巨头高盛（Goldman Sachs）大幅增加其加密货币资产持仓，当前总估值已达到23.6亿美元。尽管这仅占其总投资组合的0.33%，但这一举措明确显示，主流金融机构正以谨慎但坚定的步伐，将加密资产纳入其长期战略配置，反映出对这一资产类别的结构性信心正在成熟。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>持仓策略：谨慎配置、多元分散</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛的加密货币投资策略展现出典型的机构风格：</p><ul><li><strong>规模显著但占比可控</strong>：虽然23.6亿美元的持仓金额庞大，但在其整体资产配置中仅占很小部分，体现了在探索潜在收益与管理波动风险之间的审慎平衡。</li><li><strong>资产组合多元化</strong>：尽管具体构成未公开，但已知高盛将其曝光分散于多种数字资产中，而非集中于单一币种，此举有助于降低特定项目风险。</li><li><strong>从服务到直投的演进</strong>：早期，高盛通过为客户提供比特币期货与期权交易服务进入市场，随后逐渐转向直接投资，这一路径与监管环境的演进及机构对加密资产的接受度提升同步。</li><li>&nbsp;</li></ul><h3>背景解读：监管、基础设施与流动性促成转向</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛策略的转变，是更广泛的机构采用趋势的缩影。早期传统金融机构对加密货币多持观望态度，但随着监管清晰度提高、机构级基础设施日臻完善、以及市场流动性增强，主流机构开始更认真地评估加密资产在投资组合中的角色。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛此时选择显著增加持仓，表明其内部已形成一种共识：数字资产将在未来金融体系中扮演持续性角色，且其长期前景可能比过去更为乐观。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>市场影响：象征意义大于资金规模</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛此次增持的市场影响，更多在于其象征性信号，而非其资金规模本身。作为华尔街最具影响力的机构之一，其公开的持仓动向可能产生示范效应，鼓励其他仍在观望的机构投资者跟进。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此举有望：</p><ul><li><strong>提振市场情绪</strong>：强化加密资产作为合法资产类别的认知。</li><li><strong>刺激交易量</strong>：可能带动比特币、以太坊等主流币种的交易活动，以及瑞波币（XRP）等其他成熟资产的交易。</li><li><strong>催生更多机构级产品</strong>：推动托管、资产管理及衍生品等服务的发展，进一步促进加密领域与传统金融的融合。</li><li>&nbsp;</li></ul><h3>长期启示：机构化进程不可逆转</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛的谨慎步伐为其他机构投资者提供了一个蓝图：在涉足加密市场时，风险评估、多元分散与长期视野至关重要。尽管其持仓增长对市场情绪有积极推动，但投资者更应关注其背后所代表的长期趋势——加密市场的机构化、专业化与合规化进程已不可逆转，这将从根本上重塑市场的流动性结构、波动特性与定价逻辑。</p>

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</div></div><p>傳統金融巨頭<a href="https://cftime.io/goldman-sachs-increased-its-holdings-bitcoin-etf/">高盛</a>（Goldman Sachs）近期大幅增加其加密貨幣資產持倉，總估值已達<strong>23.6億美元</strong>。儘管這僅佔其總投資組合的0.33%，但此高盛加密持倉明確顯示，主流金融機構正以謹慎但堅定的步伐，將加密資產納入其長期戰略配置，反映出對該資產類別的結構性信心正在成熟。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>持倉策略：謹慎配置、多元分散</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛的加密貨幣投資策略展現典型的機構風格：</p><ul><li><strong>規模顯著但佔比可控</strong>：23.6億美元的持倉雖金額龐大，但在其整體資產配置中僅佔很小部分，體現了在探索潛在收益與管理波動風險之間的審慎平衡。</li><li><strong>資產組合多元化</strong>：雖然具體構成未公開，但已知高盛將其曝光分散於多種數字資產中，而非集中於單一幣種，此舉有助於降低特定項目風險。</li><li><strong>從服務到直投的演進</strong>：高盛早年先通過為客戶提供比特幣期貨與期權交易服務進入市場，其後逐漸轉向直接投資，這一路徑與監管環境的演進及機構對加密資產的接受度提升同步。</li></ul><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>背景解讀：監管、基礎設施與流動性促成轉向</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛策略的轉變，是更廣泛的機構採用趨勢的縮影。早期傳統金融機構對加密貨幣多持觀望態度，但隨著<strong>監管清晰度提高、機構級基礎設施日臻完善、以及市場流動性增強</strong>，主流機構開始更認真地評估加密資產在投資組合中的角色。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛此時選擇顯著增加持倉，表明其內部已形成一種共識：數字資產將在未來金融體系中扮演持續性角色，且其長期前景可能比過去更為樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>市場影響：象徵意義大於資金規模</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛此次增持的市場影響，更多在於其<strong>象徵性信號</strong>，而非其資金規模本身。作為華爾街最具影響力的機構之一，其公開的持倉動向可能產生示範效應，鼓勵其他仍在觀望的機構投資者跟進。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此舉有望：</p><ul><li><strong>提振市場情緒</strong>：強化加密資產作為合法資產類別的認知。</li><li><strong>刺激交易量</strong>：可能帶動比特幣、以太坊等主流幣，乃至如瑞波幣（XRP）等其他成熟資產的交易活動。</li><li><strong>催生更多機構級產品</strong>：推動託管、資產管理及衍生品等服務的發展，進一步促進加密領域與傳統金融的融合。</li></ul><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>長期啟示：機構化進程不可逆轉</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>高盛的謹慎步伐為其他機構投資者提供了一個藍圖：在涉足加密市場時，<strong>風險評估、多元分散與長期視野</strong>至關重要。儘管其持倉增長對市場情緒有積極推動，但投資者更應關注其背後所代表的長期趨勢——加密市場的機構化、專業化與合規化進程已不可逆轉，這將從根本上重塑市場的流動性結構、波動特性與定價邏輯。</p>

Goldman Sachs' cryptocurrency holdings surge to 2.36B

高盛加密持仓暴增至23.6亿美元 用真金白银押注数位资产的未来

高盛加密持倉暴增至23.6億美元 用真金白銀押注數位資產的未來

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</div></div><p>Fidelity Digital Assets has released a new research report indicating that Bitcoin is entering a new era dominated by scarcity. The report predicts that by the end of 2025, over 28% of the total Bitcoin supply (21 million coins) will be in a non-liquid state due to long-term holding and corporate ownership, meaning that Bitcoin will be locked away for an extended period.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Transition from Abundant Supply to Scarcity</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The report's author, Zack Wainwright, notes that as 95% of the total Bitcoin supply approaches circulation, the market is transitioning from an abundant supply to a scarce supply. The report identifies two main factors contributing to Bitcoin's non-liquidity: first, long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for more than seven years; and second, publicly traded companies holding at least 1,000 BTC. Wainwright estimates that these two categories of holders will collectively own over 6 million Bitcoins by the end of 2025.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Currently, publicly traded companies hold over 830,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 4% of the circulating supply, with 97% concentrated in companies holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins. However, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries, the combined holdings of public and private companies may be as high as 1.3 million Bitcoins, significantly exceeding the aforementioned figure.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Increasing Trend of Long-term Holders</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>By combining data from long-term holders and corporate holders, the report shows that the trend of Bitcoin holding is accelerating, with trading volumes relatively decreasing. Since the third quarter of 2024, publicly traded companies have actively allocated Bitcoin, further increasing the non-liquid supply.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Forecast for Non-liquid Assets by 2032</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Looking ahead, the Fidelity report predicts that by 2032, nearly 42% of the current circulating supply (over 8.3 million BTC) will become non-liquid assets. The report concludes that as more entities hold Bitcoin long-term, its scarcity will increasingly become a focal point of market attention. It also mentions that if the trend of national adoption of Bitcoin strengthens and the regulatory environment continues to evolve, the growth rate of non-liquid supply may be even more pronounced.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Although the report does not explicitly mention it, a similar trend is likely unfolding in the Ethereum market. Digital asset wallets have accumulated over 4% of the total Ethereum supply in just a few months, and since the launch of Ethereum ETFs last year, their absorption has exceeded 5.5% of the total supply.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>This report highlights significant changes in the Bitcoin market structure and the growing willingness of institutional investors to hold Bitcoin long-term, introducing new variables for Bitcoin's price movements and market supply-demand dynamics.</p>

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</div></div><p>富达数位资产（Fidelity Digital Assets）发表最新研究报告，指出比特币正迈向一个由稀缺性主导的新时代。报告预测，到2025年底，超过28%的比特币总供应量（2100万枚）将因长期持有及企业级持有而呈现非流动性状态，即比特币将被长期锁死。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>比特币将被长期锁死 「供应充裕到供应稀缺的转变」</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>报告作者Zack Wainwright指出，随着95%的比特币总供应量即将进入流通市场，市场正经历从供应充裕到供应稀缺的转变。 该报告将导致比特币非流动性的主要因素归纳为两类：一、持有时间超过七年的长期持有者；二、持有至少1,000枚BTC的上市公司。 Wainwright估计，这两类持有者到2025年底将合计持有超过600万枚比特币。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>目前，上市公司已持有超过83万枚比特币，占流通供应量的4%，其中97%集中在持有量超过1,000枚比特币的企业手中。 然而，若参考BitcoinTreasuries的数据，上市公司和非上市公司合计持有量可能高达130万枚比特币，远超前述数字。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>将长期持有者与企业持有者数据结合分析，报告显示比特币的持有趋势正在加速，交易量相对减少。 自2024年第三季度以来，上市公司财库积极配置比特币，进一步推高了非流动性供应量。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>料到2032年近42%的当前流通供应量 将成为非流动性资产</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>展望未来，富达报告预测，到2032年，近42%的当前流通供应量（超过830万枚BTC）将成为非流动性资产。 报告结论指出，随着更多实体长期持有比特币，其稀缺性将日益成为市场关注的焦点。 报告同时提到，若国家层面采用比特币的趋势加强，以及监管环境持续演变，则非流动性供应量的增长速度可能更加显著。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>报告虽未明确提及，但类似趋势很可能也正在以太坊（Ethereum）市场上演。 数位资产库在短短几个月内已累积超过4%的以太坊总供应量，而自去年以太坊ETF推出以来，其吸纳量更已超过总供应量的5.5%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>报告突显了比特币市场结构的重大变化，以及日益增长的机构投资者对比特币的长期持有意愿，为比特币的价格走势和市场供需关系带来新的变数。</p>

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</div></div><p>富達數位資產（Fidelity Digital Assets）<a href="https://fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/bitcoins-illiquid-supply-new-era-investors">發表最新研究報告</a>，指出比特幣正邁向一個由稀缺性主導的新時代。報告預測，到2025年底，超過28%的比特幣總供應量（2100萬枚）將因長期持有及企業級持有而呈現非流動性狀態，即比特幣將被長期鎖死。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>比特幣將被長期鎖死 「供應充裕到供應稀缺的轉變」</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>報告作者Zack Wainwright指出，隨著95%的比特幣總供應量即將進入流通市場，市場正經歷從供應充裕到供應稀缺的轉變。 該報告將導致比特幣非流動性的主要因素歸納為兩類：一、持有時間超過七年的長期持有者；二、持有至少1,000枚BTC的上市公司。 Wainwright估計，這兩類持有者到2025年底將合計持有超過600萬枚比特幣。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>目前，上市公司已持有超過83萬枚比特幣，佔流通供應量的4%，其中97%集中在持有量超過1,000枚比特幣的企業手中。 然而，若參考<a href="https://bitcointreasuries.net/">BitcoinTreasuries的數據</a>，上市公司和非上市公司合計持有量可能高達130萬枚比特幣，遠超前述數字。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>將長期持有者與企業持有者數據結合分析，報告顯示比特幣的持有趨勢正在加速，交易量相對減少。 自2024年第三季度以來，上市公司財庫積極配置比特幣，進一步推高了非流動性供應量。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>料到2032年近42%的當前流通供應量 將成為非流動性資產</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>展望未來，富達報告預測，到2032年，近42%的當前<a href="https://cftime.io/bitcoin-accumulation-plan/">流通供應量</a>（超過830萬枚BTC）將成為非流動性資產。 報告結論指出，隨著更多實體長期持有比特幣，其稀缺性將日益成為市場關注的焦點。 報告同時提到，若國家層面採用比特幣的趨勢加強，以及監管環境持續演變，則非流動性供應量的增長速度可能更加顯著。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>報告雖未明確提及，但類似趨勢很可能也正在以太坊（Ethereum）市場上演。 數位資產庫在短短幾個月內已累積超過4%的以太坊總供應量，而自去年以太坊ETF推出以來，其吸納量更已超過總供應量的5.5%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>報告突顯了比特幣市場結構的重大變化，以及日益增長的機構投資者對比特幣的長期持有意願，為比特幣的價格走勢和市場供需關係帶來新的變數。</p>

Fidelity warns: Over 28% of Bitcoin will be locked up by the end of the year

富达警告：年底超过28%比特币将被长期锁死 稀缺性新时代正式来临

富達警告：年底超過28%比特幣將被長期鎖死 稀缺性新時代正式來臨

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</div></div><p>BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, has made a significant change in its cryptocurrency investment strategy this year, increasing its holdings in Ethereum (ETH) at a pace far exceeding that of Bitcoin (BTC). This shift has sent shockwaves through the crypto market and provides important insights for institutional investors' future strategies.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>According to Finbold's analysis of Arkham Intel wallet cluster data, as of September 9, 2025, BlackRock's Bitcoin holdings amount to 732,384 BTC, valued at approximately $81.7 billion based on a price of $111,513 at that time. In contrast, its Ethereum holdings have reached an impressive 3.74 million ETH, valued at around $16 billion (at a price of $4,301).</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Compared to January 1, 2025, BlackRock's Bitcoin holdings have increased by over 30%. However, the growth in Ethereum holdings is even more remarkable, having increased by 2.5 times. In other words, in terms of percentage growth, BlackRock's accumulation of Ethereum is 7.6 times that of Bitcoin.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Despite both Ethereum and Bitcoin prices rising during this period, the increase in token holdings far outpaces the price growth, indicating that BlackRock's actions are not merely reactive to market cap changes but represent proactive net purchases.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Shift in Portfolio Allocation: From 6.6% to 17.2%</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>This strategic adjustment has significantly altered the composition of BlackRock's cryptocurrency investment portfolio. At the beginning of the year, Ethereum accounted for just 6.6% of its portfolio ($3.59 billion out of $54.83 billion). As of September 2, this allocation has risen to 17.2% ($16.58 billion out of $96.44 billion), an increase of 10.6 percentage points.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The massive accumulation by BlackRock is likely to have a considerable impact on the market. Firstly, the increase of 2.71 million Ethereum relative to its total circulating supply represents a substantial amount of stable buying pressure. Secondly, this signals that institutional investors are reassessing their cryptocurrency strategies, gradually extending their investments beyond Bitcoin and actively engaging with the Ethereum ecosystem. This aligns with the increasing maturity of Ethereum-related products and capital flows.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>BlackRock's actions indicate a growing confidence among institutional investors in Ethereum, potentially leading to further institutional participation and driving both the price and market position of Ethereum.</p>

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</div></div><p>全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德今年以来对加密货币的投资策略出现重大转变，其增持以太币(ETH)的速度远超比特币(BTC)，贝莱德投资策略，为加密货币市场投下震撼弹，也为机构投资者的未来布局提供了重要参考。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根据Finbold分析Arkham Intel钱包集群数据显示，截至2025年9月9日，贝莱德的比特币持有量为732,384个BTC，按当时价格111,513美元计算，价值约817亿美元；而以太币持有量则达到惊人的374万个ETH，价值约160亿美元（当时价格4,301美元）。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>与2025年1月1日相比，贝莱德的比特币持有量增加了y逾三成；但以太币持有量增长则更加显著，增加2.5倍， 换言之，以百分比增长计算，贝莱德增持以太币的速度是比特币的7.6倍。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>尽管以太币和比特币价格在测量期间均有所上涨，但代币持有量的增长幅度远远超过价格涨幅，显示贝莱德的增持行为并非仅仅是市值变动的结果，而是积极的净购买行为。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>贝莱德投资策略 占比由6.6%跃升至17.2%</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>这种策略性调整也明显改变了贝莱德加密货币投资组合的结构。年初，以太币在其投资组合中仅占6.6%（35.9亿美元/548.3亿美元），但截至9月2日，其占比已跃升至17.2%（165.8亿美元/964.4亿美元），增长了10.6个百分点。</p><p>贝莱德的巨额增持对市场的影响不容小觑。首先，271万个以太币的增长规模相对于以太币的总流通量而言相当可观，将为市场注入大量的稳定买盘。其次，这也发出了强烈的信号，表明机构投资者正在重新评估其加密货币投资策略，逐步将投资范围扩展至比特币之外，并积极布局以太坊生态系统，这与以太坊相关产品和资金流的日益成熟相呼应。 贝莱德的行动，预示着机构投资者对以太币的信心与日俱增，并可能引领更多机构跟进，进一步推动以太币的价格和市场地位。</p>

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</div></div><p>全球最大資產管理公司<a href="https://cftime.io/usd-hegemony-is-under-threat/">貝萊德</a>今年以來對加密貨幣的投資策略出現重大轉變，其增持以太幣(ETH)的速度遠超比特幣(BTC)，貝萊德投資策略，為加密貨幣市場投下震撼彈，也為機構投資者的未來佈局提供了重要參考。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>即加入</strong><a href="https://t.me/+l--9PJpFdIgxOTk9"><strong>CFTime TG 討論區</strong></a><strong>！想掌握最新加密市場動態與 AI 新聞與資訊，更能隨時獲得免費 web 3入場券！</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>根據Finbold分析Arkham Intel錢包集群數據顯示，截至2025年9月9日，貝萊德的比特幣持有量為732,384個BTC，以當時價格111,513美元計算，價值約817億美元；而以太幣持有量則達到驚人的374萬個ETH，價值約1601億美元（當時價格約1401萬美元）。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>與2025年1月1日相比，貝萊德的比特幣持有量增加了y逾三成；但以太幣持有量增長則更加顯著，增加2.5倍， 換言之，以百分比增長計算，貝萊德增持以太幣的速度是比特幣的7.6倍。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>儘管以太幣和比特幣價格在測量期間均有所上漲，但代幣持有量的增長幅度遠遠超過價格漲幅，顯示貝萊德的增持行為並非僅僅是市值變動的結果，而是積極的淨購買行為。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>貝萊德投資策略 佔比由6.6%躍升至17.2%</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>這種策略性調整也明顯改變了貝萊德加密貨幣投資組合的結構。年初，以太幣在其投資組合中僅佔6.6%（35.9億美元/548.3億美元），但截至9月2日，其佔比已躍升至17.2%（165.8億美元/964.4億美元），增長了10.6個百分點。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>貝萊德的巨額增持對市場的影響不容小覷。首先，271萬個以太幣的增長規模相對於以太幣的總流通量而言相當可觀，將為市場注入大量的穩定買盤。其次，這也發出了強烈的信號，表明機構投資者正在重新評估其加密貨幣投資策略，逐步將投資範圍擴展至比特幣之外，並積極布局以太坊生態系統，這與以太坊相關產品和資金流的日益成熟相呼應。 貝萊德的行動，預示著機構投資者對以太幣的信心與日俱增，並可能引領更多機構跟進，進一步推動以太幣的價格和市場地位。</p>

BlackRock's investment strategy shifts from Bitcoin to Ethereum

贝莱德投资策略由比特币转向以太坊 数据揭秘惊人增持策略

貝萊德投資策略由比特幣轉向以太坊 數據揭秘驚人增持策略

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</div></div><p>Bitwise investment director Matt Hougan recently made a startling prediction: the Bitcoin bull run might be delayed until 2026, implying the death of the four-year Bitcoin cycle. This prediction immediately sparked heated debate in the market, as other analysts hold differing views on Bitcoin's price trajectory. Some believe Bitcoin will deviate from historical patterns, while others predict it will follow the halving cycle, peaking in the coming months.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $118,169, with an increase of over 10% in the past 30 days. In a Friday X video, Hougan stated, "I think 2026 is going to be a year where Bitcoin's price goes up, and we might be in for a good few years." He argues that the traditional four-year halving cycle is invalidated, citing reasons such as the diminishing halving effect (halving impact decreases by half every four years) and favorable interest rate cycles. Since April, US President Trump has continuously pressured Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to cut interest rates, a potential positive for Bitcoin as lower rates reduce the attractiveness of traditional assets like bonds and fixed deposits to investors.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Hougan further points out that the risk of a significant Bitcoin price correction has lessened due to a clearer regulatory environment and continued institutional investment. "The bust risk has diminished because of regulatory improvement and the institutionalization of the industry," he emphasized. He suggests that the early stages of institutional investment and ongoing regulatory processes hint at a higher-than-historical-trend upside potential for Bitcoin within this cycle. He concludes, "The long-term forces favoring Bitcoin will overwhelm the traditional 'four-year cycle' forces, and 2026 will be a good year."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Bitcoin Bull Run Delayed to 2026, but "Significant Cyclical Risks Remain"</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>However, Hougan acknowledges significant cyclical risks remain, primarily stemming from the rise of Bitcoin-holding companies. "This is something to watch, and it's a big deal," he said. Asset management firm VanEck echoed similar concerns, warning that companies accumulating Bitcoin through issuing new shares or taking on debt face extremely high risks, even potential liquidity crunches, during a significant Bitcoin price drop.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Hougan predicts that Bitcoin's price gains will be steady rather than explosive in the short term. "I think this is more of a 'sustained steady boom' than a supercycle," he added. "I could be wrong, and I'm sure there will be significant volatility."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Analysis: The Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Theory No Longer Applies</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Hougan's perspective resonates with other recent market players. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also believes the Bitcoin four-year cycle theory is "dead." He stated, "My prediction was based on this theory—buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But this pattern no longer applies. In the last cycle, whales sold to retail; this time, old whales sold to new long-term whales. Institutional investment is bigger than we thought."</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>However, not all analysts agree. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital cautions that if Bitcoin follows the 2020 historical pattern, its price expansion might only have a few months left, potentially peaking in October (550 days after the April 2024 halving).</p>

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</div></div><p>Bitwise投资总监Matt Hougan近日抛出震撼预测：<a href="https://cftime.io/satoshi-nakamoto-ranks-11th-worlds-richest/">比特币</a>暴涨时机可能延后至2026年，这意味着比特币四年周期已死。此预测一出，立即引发市场热议，因其他分析师对于比特币价格走势看法分歧，有人认为比特币将偏离历史模式，也有人预测其将遵循减半周期，在未来几个月达到价格峰值。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>目前比特币价格为118,169美元，过去30天升幅逾一成。 Hougan在上周五的<a href="https://x.com/Matt_Hougan/status/1948709817125593227">X影片中明确表示</a>：「我认为2026年将是比特币价格上涨的一年，而且我们可能将迎来持续几年的好光景。」他认为，传统的四年减半周期已失效，原因包括：减半效应每四年递减一半，以及有利的利率周期。自四月以来，美国总统特朗普持续施压联准会主席鲍尔减息，此举被视为比特币的潜在利多，因为低利率将降低债券和定期存款等传统资产对投资人的吸引力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Hougan进一步指出，随着监管环境日趋明朗，以及机构投资者持续进场，比特币价格大幅回调的风险已降低。 「爆雷风险已减弱，原因在于监管改善和行业的制度化。」他强调，机构投资的早期阶段和持续的监管过程，都暗示比特币在本周期内的上涨潜力可能高于历史趋势。他总结道：「长期有利于比特币的力量将压倒传统『四年周期』力量，2026年将是好年景。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>比特币暴涨时机延后至2026 惟「仍存在显著的周期性风险」</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，Hougan也坦言，比特币仍存在显著的周期性风险，其中最主要来自于比特币库存公司的兴起。 「这值得关注，而且影响重大。」他表示。资产管理公司VanEck也表达了类似的担忧，警告那些透过发行新股或举债累积比特币的公司，在比特币价格大幅下跌时，将面临极高的风险，甚至资金过度紧张。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Hougan预测，比特币价格的涨势短期内将趋于稳定，而非剧烈上涨。 「我认为这更像是『持续稳定的繁荣』，而非超级周期。」他补充道：「我可能错了，而且我确信会有很大的波动性。」</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>分析：比特币四年周期理论不再适用</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Hougan的观点与近期其他市场人士的看法产生共鸣。 CryptoQuant 行政总监纪永柱也认为比特币四年周期理论「已死」。他表示：「我的预测是基于此理论——鲸鱼累积时买入，散户加入时卖出。但这种模式不再适用。上一轮周期，鲸鱼卖给散户；这次，老鲸鱼卖给新的长期鲸鱼。机构投资的规模比我们想像的还要大。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，并非所有分析师都同意此观点。加密分析师Rekt Capital则警告，如果比特币遵循2020年的历史模式，其价格扩张可能只剩下几个月，并可能在10月份（2024年4月减半后的550天）达到峰值。</p>

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</div></div><p>Bitwise投資總監Matt Hougan近日拋出震撼預測：<a href="https://cftime.io/satoshi-nakamoto-ranks-11th-worlds-richest/">比特幣</a>暴漲時機可能延後至2026年，這意味著比特幣四年週期已死。此預測一出，立即引發市場熱議，因其他分析師對於比特幣價格走勢看法分歧，有人認為比特幣將偏離歷史模式，也有人預測其將遵循減半週期，在未來幾個月達到價格峰值。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>目前比特幣價格為118,169美元，過去30天升幅逾一成。Hougan在上週五的<a href="https://x.com/Matt_Hougan/status/1948709817125593227">X影片中明確表示</a>：「我認為2026年將是比特幣價格上漲的一年，而且我們可能將迎來持續幾年的好光景。」他認為，傳統的四年減半週期已失效，原因包括：減半效應每四年遞減一半，以及有利的利率週期。自四月以來，美國總統特朗普持續施壓聯準會主席鮑爾減息，此舉被視為比特幣的潛在利多，因為低利率將降低債券和定期存款等傳統資產對投資人的吸引力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Hougan進一步指出，隨著監管環境日趨明朗，以及機構投資者持續進場，比特幣價格大幅回調的風險已降低。「爆雷風險已減弱，原因在於監管改善和行業的制度化。」他強調，機構投資的早期階段和持續的監管過程，都暗示比特幣在本週期內的上漲潛力可能高於歷史趨勢。他總結道：「長期有利於比特幣的力量將壓倒傳統『四年週期』力量，2026年將是好年景。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>比特幣暴漲時機延後至2026 惟「仍存在顯著的週期性風險」</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，Hougan也坦言，比特幣仍存在顯著的週期性風險，其中最主要來自於比特幣庫存公司的興起。「這值得關注，而且影響重大。」他表示。資產管理公司VanEck也表達了類似的擔憂，警告那些透過發行新股或舉債累積比特幣的公司，在比特幣價格大幅下跌時，將面臨極高的風險，甚至資金過度緊張。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Hougan預測，比特幣價格的漲勢短期內將趨於穩定，而非劇烈上漲。「我認為這更像是『持續穩定的繁榮』，而非超級週期。」他補充道：「我可能錯了，而且我確信會有很大的波動性。」</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>分析：比特幣四年週期理論不再適用</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Hougan的觀點與近期其他市場人士的看法產生共鳴。CryptoQuant 行政總監紀永柱也認為比特幣四年週期理論「已死」。他表示：「我的預測是基於此理論——鯨魚累積時買入，散戶加入時賣出。但這種模式不再適用。上一輪週期，鯨魚賣給散戶；這次，老鯨魚賣給新的長期鯨魚。機構投資的規模比我們想像的還要大。」</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>然而，並非所有分析師都同意此觀點。加密分析師Rekt Capital則警告，如果比特幣遵循2020年的歷史模式，其價格擴張可能只剩下幾個月，並可能在10月份（2024年4月減半後的550天）達到峰值。</p>

Bitcoin's four-year cycle theory is dead?

比特币四年周期理论「已死」三大关键原因曝光

比特幣四年週期理論「已死」三大關鍵原因曝光

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</div><p>Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) predicts Bitcoin's price will surge to $500,000, potentially even exceeding $1 million. This prediction is based on his assessment of several positive market factors.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>In a recent media interview, CZ elaborated on his bullish outlook. He cited three key drivers for Bitcoin's price increase: growing institutional investor interest, a more positive regulatory environment, and increasing mainstream adoption.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>CZ stated that the conditions for a significant Bitcoin price rise are ripe, declaring, "The momentum is there, the infrastructure is ready." While he didn't provide a specific timeframe for the price surge, he emphasized that the groundwork is laid for substantial growth. He highlighted the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the US and the active participation of sovereign wealth funds in the cryptocurrency market as significant catalysts for substantial capital inflows into Bitcoin. Traditional financial institutions are no longer on the sidelines but are actively engaging in Bitcoin investment.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Furthermore, CZ believes that the proactive development of digital asset regulatory frameworks globally will reduce investment risk, attracting investors with lower risk tolerance. Regulatory clarity boosts the confidence of large financial institutions to participate in the Bitcoin market.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Beyond price predictions, CZ also mentioned actively exploring new use cases for Bitcoin and Binance Coin (BNB), aiming to expand the utility of core crypto assets beyond speculation. While he didn't detail these applications in the interview, this aligns with the broader cryptocurrency industry's focus on developing real-world use cases, such as cross-border payments, tokenized assets, and decentralized finance (DeFi).</p>

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</div><p>赵长鹏预测比特币价格将飙升至50万美元，甚至突破100万美元大关。此预测基于他对市场多项利好因素的综合判断。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在接受媒体采访时，赵长鹏详细阐述了他的乐观预期。他认为，机构投资者兴趣持续增长、监管环境的积极变化以及比特币在主流市场的普及程度不断提升，是推动比特币价格上涨的三大关键因素。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>赵长鹏预测比特币价格 指大幅上升条件已经成熟</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>赵长鹏指出：「动能已成，基础设施已就绪。」 他虽然没有提供具体的价格上涨时间点，但强调比特币大幅上升条件已经成熟。他特别提到，美国批准比特币 ETF，以及主权财富基金积极参与加密货币市场，将为比特币带来大量资金流入。传统金融机构不再持观望态度，而是积极参与比特币投资。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此外，赵长鹏也认为，全球各地政府积极制定数位资产监管框架，有助于降低投资风险，进而吸引更多风险承受能力较低的投资者。 监管明确性提升，让大型金融机构更有信心参与比特币市场。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>除了价格预测，赵长鹏也提及他正积极探索比特币和币安币（BNB）的新应用场景，目标是将核心加密资产的用途拓展至投机以外的领域。虽然他在采访中未详细说明，但此举与整个加密货币产业积极发展实际应用案例的趋势相符，例如跨境支付、代币化资产以及去中心化金融（DeFi）等。</p>

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</div><p><a href="https://cftime.io/cz-refutes-wall-street-journals-allegations/">趙長鵬</a>預測比特幣價格將飆升至50萬美元，甚至突破100萬美元大關。此預測基於他對市場多項利好因素的綜合判斷。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>在接受媒體採訪時，趙長鵬詳細闡述了他的樂觀預期。他認為，機構投資者興趣持續增長、監管環境的積極變化以及比特幣在主流市場的普及程度不斷提升，是推動比特幣價格上漲的三大關鍵因素。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>趙長鵬預測比特幣價格 指大幅上升條件已經成熟</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>趙長鵬指出：「動能已成，基礎設施已就緒。」 他雖然沒有提供具體的價格上漲時間點，但強調比特幣大幅上升條件已經成熟。他特別提到，美國批准比特幣 ETF，以及主權財富基金積極參與加密貨幣市場，將為比特幣帶來大量資金流入。傳統金融機構不再持觀望態度，而是積極參與比特幣投資。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>此外，趙長鵬也認為，全球各地政府積極制定數位資產監管框架，有助於降低投資風險，進而吸引更多風險承受能力較低的投資者。 監管明確性提升，讓大型金融機構更有信心參與比特幣市場。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>除了價格預測，趙長鵬也提及他正積極探索比特幣和幣安幣（BNB）的新應用場景，目標是將核心加密資產的用途拓展至投機以外的領域。雖然他在採訪中未詳細說明，但此舉與整個加密貨幣產業積極發展實際應用案例的趨勢相符，例如跨境支付、代幣化資產以及去中心化金融（DeFi）等。</p>

CZ predicts Bitcoin price will rise to 500K USD

赵长鹏预测比特币价格将升至50万美元

趙長鵬預測比特幣價格將升至50萬美元  

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</div><p>Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, rising 11% between April 20th and 26th, and maintaining its price near two-month highs of approximately $94,000. This rally follows signals from the Trump administration hinting at relaxed import tariffs, coupled with strong corporate earnings reports.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Investor confidence has been further boosted by record net inflows into spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), totaling $3.1 billion over five days. However, a key BTC derivatives indicator is signaling bearish momentum, raising questions about the feasibility of the $100,000 target.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Selling Pressure Indicator Shows Continued Volatility</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Perpetual Bitcoin futures contracts are favored by retail investors due to their close price correlation with the spot market. A positive funding rate implies that buyers must pay fees to maintain their positions, thus a rate reversal is often associated with a bearish trend.</p><p>The sharp negative funding rate recorded on April 26th is extremely rare during bull markets, indicating stronger selling pressure. The indicator has shown continued volatility since April 14th, but Bitcoin's price breaking through $94,000 caught sellers off guard. Over $450 million in BTC short positions have been liquidated since April 21st.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Part of Bitcoin's price recovery and strong performance can be attributed to the S&amp;P 500 index's 7.1% gain for the week. However, despite market optimism, U.S. President Trump's April 25th statement that negotiations are contingent on Chinese concessions has raised concerns among traders about the sustainability of recent gains.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Companies are currently releasing first-quarter earnings reports from before the escalation of the trade war, so the factors driving the stock market and Bitcoin differ. In fact, the correlation between Bitcoin's price and the S&amp;P 500 index has significantly decreased.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Currently, the 30-day correlation between the S&amp;P 500 and Bitcoin is 29%, far lower than the 60% level observed from mid-March to mid-April. While a decreased correlation does not represent a complete decoupling, as investor sentiment is still influenced by macroeconomic factors, it does indicate that Bitcoin is not merely a substitute for tech stocks.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3>Bitcoin's Status as an Independent Asset Reinforced</h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Gold's failure to maintain bullish momentum after reaching an all-time high of $3,500 on April 22nd is also seen as an important indicator of Bitcoin's status as an independent asset class. Some traders have questioned the "digital gold" narrative, but BTC's continued maintenance above $90,000 will continue to boost investor confidence, potentially paving the way for further gains.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The increased demand for bearish leverage in perpetual BTC futures is not consistent with the views of professional traders. Monthly Bitcoin futures contracts avoid volatile funding rates, allowing traders to understand leverage costs in advance.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>On April 26th, the two-month Bitcoin futures premium (benchmark rate) rose to its highest level in seven weeks, indicating increased interest in bullish positions. At 6.5%, the indicator remains in the neutral range (5% to 10%), but is moving away from the bearish zone.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Discrepancies in leverage demand between perpetual futures and monthly BTC contracts are not uncommon. Even if retail investors remain cautious, large accumulations by institutions may still be enough to push Bitcoin's price above $100,000 in the short term.</p>

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</div><p>比特币价格可能于五月创下历史新高。比特币在4月20日至26日期间上涨11%，价格维持在约94,000美元的两个月高点附近，展现韧性。此波反弹紧随特朗普政府释出放宽进口关税的讯号以及强劲的企业财报之后。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 在五天内净流入31亿美元，创下历史新高，进一步提振投资者信心。然而，一个关键的BTC衍生品指标显示看跌动能，引发市场对100,000美元目标是否可行的质疑。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>比特币价格可能于五月创下历史新高 &nbsp;卖方需求指标持续波动</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>永续比特币期货合约因其价格与现货市场走势密切相关而受散户青睐。正资金费率意味着买方需支付费用维持头寸，因此费率反转通常与看跌趋势相关。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>4月26日录得的急剧负资金费率在牛市期间极为罕见，显示卖方需求更强劲。自4月14日以来，该指标持续波动，但比特币价格突破94,000美元后，卖方措手不及。自4月21日以来，超过4.5亿美元的BTC空头部位已被清算。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>部分比特币价格回升及强势表现可归因于标普500指数当周7.1%的涨幅。然而，尽管市场乐观，美国总统特朗普4月25日声称，谈判取决于中国让步，引发交易员对近期涨势可持续性的质疑。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>企业目前公布的是贸易战升级前的第一季度业绩，因此推动股市和比特币的因素有所不同。事实上，比特币价格与标普500指数的相关性已大幅下降。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>目前，标普500指数与比特币的30天相关性为29%，远低于3月中旬至4月中旬的60%水平。虽然相关性下降并不代表完全脱钩，因为投资者情绪仍受宏观经济因素影响，但这显示比特币并非仅仅是科技股的替代品。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>比特币作为独立资产的地位得到强化</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>黄金在4月22日达到3,500美元的历史高点后未能维持看涨动能，也被视为比特币作为独立资产类别地位的重要指标。部分交易员曾质疑「数位黄金」的说法，但BTC持续维持在90,000美元以上，将持续提升投资者信心，可能为进一步涨势铺路。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>永续BTC期货中对看跌杠杆的需求增加与专业交易员的观点并不一致。月度比特币期货合约避免了波动的资金费率，交易员可预先了解杠杆成本。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>4月26日，两个月比特币期货溢价（基准利率）升至七周以来最高水平，显示看涨部位的兴趣增强。以6.5%计算，该指标维持在中性区间（5%至10%），但正远离看跌区域。</p><p>永续期货与月度BTC合约的杠杆需求差异并非罕见。即使散户投资者保持谨慎，机构的大量累积仍可能足以推动比特币价格在短期内突破100,000美元。</p>

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</div><p>比特幣價格可能於五月創下歷史新高。比特幣在4月20日至26日期間上漲11%，價格維持在約94,000美元的兩個月高點附近，展現韌性。此波反彈緊隨特朗普政府釋出放寬進口關稅的訊號以及強勁的企業財報之後。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>現貨比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 在五天內淨流入31億美元，創下歷史新高，進一步提振投資者信心。然而，一個關鍵的BTC衍生品指標顯示看跌動能，引發市場對100,000美元目標是否可行的質疑。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>比特幣價格可能於五月創下歷史新高 &nbsp;賣方需求指標持續波動</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>永續比特幣期貨合約因其價格與現貨市場走勢密切相關而受散戶青睞。正資金費率意味著買方需支付費用維持頭寸，因此費率反轉通常與看跌趨勢相關。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>4月26日錄得的急劇負資金費率在牛市期間極為罕見，顯示賣方需求更強勁。自4月14日以來，該指標持續波動，但比特幣價格突破94,000美元後，賣方措手不及。自4月21日以來，超過4.5億美元的BTC空頭部位已被清算。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>部分比特幣價格回升及強勢表現可歸因於標普500指數當周7.1%的漲幅。然而，儘管市場樂觀，美國總統特朗普4月25日聲稱，談判取決於中國讓步，引發交易員對近期漲勢可持續性的質疑。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>企業目前公布的是貿易戰升級前的第一季度業績，因此推動股市和比特幣的因素有所不同。事實上，比特幣價格與標普500指數的相關性已大幅下降。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>目前，標普500指數與比特幣的30天相關性為29%，遠低於3月中旬至4月中旬的60%水平。雖然相關性下降並不代表完全脫鉤，因為投資者情緒仍受宏觀經濟因素影響，但這顯示比特幣並非僅僅是科技股的替代品。</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>比特幣作為獨立資產的地位得到強化</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>黃金在4月22日達到3,500美元的歷史高點後未能維持看漲動能，也被視為比特幣作為獨立資產類別地位的重要指標。部分交易員曾質疑「數位黃金」的說法，但BTC持續維持在90,000美元以上，將持續提升投資者信心，可能為進一步漲勢鋪路。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>永續BTC期貨中對看跌槓桿的需求增加與專業交易員的觀點並不一致。月度比特幣期貨合約避免了波動的資金費率，交易員可預先了解槓桿成本。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>4月26日，兩個月比特幣期貨溢價（基準利率）升至七週以來最高水平，顯示看漲部位的興趣增強。以6.5%計算，該指標維持在中性區間（5%至10%），但正遠離看跌區域。</p><p>永續期貨與月度BTC合約的槓桿需求差異並非罕見。即使散戶投資者保持謹慎，機構的大量累積仍可能足以推動比特幣價格在短期內突破100,000美元。</p>

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